Very cool -- while some people have been poking holes in the data collection used by Dr. Michael Mann to create the (in)famous "Hockey Stick" curve of rapidly increasing temperature, two other people have been poking holes in Mann's statistics and analysis and finding his work to be less than satisfactory. What temperature rise. To continue with the Hockey metaphor, check out Statistician William Briggs' post on the topic:
The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann
Many -- as in lots and lots -- of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks!
Gordie Howe -- Mr Hockey to you -- didn't need his stick, his hockey stick, to plaster his opponents against the boards. Nor did he have to wave his blade, Tim-Dr. Hook-McCracken style, in order to fill the other team with fear. No, sir. Old Number 9 relied almost solely on his elbows to raise temperatures on the ice and score goals.
Statistically speaking, McShane and Wyner emulate Howe by applying a forearm check to the throat to Mann's proxy reconstruction of temperature, cracking his hockey stick irreparably, leaving his models sprawling on the ice.
Like old school players, McShane and Wyner start with a little trash talking, albeit using sophisticated phrasing: "In fact, Li et al. (2007) is highly unusual in the climate literature in that its authors are primarily statisticians." And they quote Boss Wegman who once picked on me, publicly in print, for being a prof. at a med. school, but I hold him no grudge; just don't let me get him out on the ice... While the literature is large, there has been very little collaboration with university-level, professional statisticians. The authors also show off their team, my pal Tilmann Gneiting, as well as Larry Brown and Dean Foster, all men of statistical brilliance.
But we can tell these taunts were included as a matter of form, thrown in because it is traditional. They don't spend much time on them, and instead focus their efforts where it counts, exploiting Mann's huge, gaping statistical five hole.
There's little point in summarizing the statistical methods the pair use to pummel Mann: the paper is not especially difficult and can be read by anybody. It's also so that the boys haven't said much new, but what they do say, they say well and plainly. It's the sheer spectacle that's worth attending to.
Heh... The original paper is posted at Climate Audit. Anthony is also having quite the field day with this.