From the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is quickly strengthening, and the cyclone's structure has improved markedly with the plane reporting a closed 15-20 n mi wide eye. The flight-level and SFMR winds support an intensity of 55 kt, but one of the more notable measurements is the central pressure, which has fallen to 982 mb. With a pressure this low, it is likely that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane.
With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
First landfall in Texas since 2008. Despite what the global warming theorists have to say, we have actually seen a decline in hurricanes both in number and strength. Still, they do happen.
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