article on Silicon Valley's worries over Taiwan/China
in the
Mercury:
bq. As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate to their highest pitch in years, Silicon Valley executives who operate in both countries are nervous but believe that in the end, money, not missiles, will rule.
bq. Valley companies now rely much more heavily on Asia for product design, manufacturing and markets than ever before. But that means they also have more to risk by China's verbal fire, triggered by what it perceives as Taiwan's attempts to inch closer to independence from the mainland.
bq. And this time, the rhetoric is particularly fierce. Chinese generals were quoted as warning that Taipei was on the "abyss of war.'"
bq. "That's a notch up from the annual war games that have been going on forever," said Brian Halla, president and chief executive of National Semiconductor in Santa Clara. His company, which has a chip design center in Taiwan, is opening a testing and assembly plant in Suzhou, China, in the spring. "It's a bit worrisome.'"
Again, China really doesn't want to nuke the place, they are looking across the straits and seeing a very cash-rich vibrant economy and a whole lot 'o technological savy driving it. They want it for their own.
Still, if some die-hard communist thug with an elevated military position makes the wrong decision, this could be bad for Taiwan and bad for Chine too - there is a good chance for all of thier size that they would loose badly. Their army is huge but most of it is used to grow food. Their equipment is bad and their training is based on the old Soviet army models - look how well this served the Baathists in Iraq - they had the same training and organization and they rolled over and died.
I think that China is also gambling that we are focussed entirely on Iraq and don't have any spare forces sitting around to help Taiwan if she would need it. I don't have any numbers in front of me but I do not think that this is a correct estimate and if China starts something, she will be badly surprised...
Posted by DaveH at December 13, 2003 9:32 PM