Transportation
Tyler Cowen at
Marginal Revolution asks the question:
Why has transportation progressed so slowly, relative to expectations?
Interesting thought -- I remember reading glittering prophecies in the issues of Popular Science from the 60's and 70's. We have people trying to do interesting things (
Moeller Skycar) but overall, it remains a royal pain to travel anywhere...
Tyler starts off with a few typical predictions and then weighs in with four hypotheses:
bq. Those not atypical forecasts are from 1961, courtesy of
www.geekpress.com. But
the rest of the predictions are eminently sensible, if not always accurate. Or try watching
The Jetsons. Why have we expected so much more progress in transportation than we have received? I can see several hypotheses:
bq. 1. In the last fifty years, for technological reasons, transportation has been relatively stagnant. More decentralized uses of flying still consume too much energy and are too dangerous.
bq. 2. The public nature of the relevant property rights (e.g., roads, airspaces) has hindered progress.
bq. 3. Futurists have no job or no audience unless they predict changes. They are especially inclined to exaggerate about transportation, perhaps because it is so visible in our lives.
bq. 4. We have focused on moving physical resources and information, rather than moving people. In the former areas progress has been immense. Who needs better transportation when the world can be brought to your doorstep?
Visit his site for a fifth. Good stuff...
Posted by DaveH at January 23, 2005 2:49 PM
