Not out of the woods yet - the weather

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Looks like an extended cold snap - from Cliff Mass:

Will This Be The Coldest February in Sea-Tac History?
We have already broken one major record: Seattle-Tacoma Airport had its snowiest February since record keeping began during the late 1940s: 20.2 inches. Impressive.

But I think there is an excellent chance we will break another record, this time for cold.

Specifically, I think there is a very good change that Sea-Tac Airport will experience the coldest February on record as well....and that is really a very impressive record.

Hold your horses, some of you might exclaim! We are only half way through the month! Who knows what will happen?

Cliff looks at several forecasts and points to this (from NOAA/NWS) due around the end of this month:

20190214-NWS.jpg

Cliff's comments:

The NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, which tries to bring in multiple types of guidance, is going an amazing cold anomaly for the last week of the month (see below). I am getting chilled just looking at it.

Brrrrrr...  And then we have this little bundle of joy to welcome this spring - from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The weekly Nino indices remained above average during the month, although decreasing in the Nino-3 and Nino-3.4 regions. However, the Nino-4 region remained elevated, with a value of +0.8°C in early February. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased in the last couple weeks, in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific. Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia. Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Nino conditions.

In plain English - excerpted from InfoGalactic:

Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than average in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and upper Northeast United States, so those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile, significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States, including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and the Southeastern United States (including the Tidewater region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation.

We have already had enough snow to fill our snowpack so agricultural water for this summer is fine. Also, this is being called a mild El Niño so its effects will be minimized - not like the huge one in 2010.

Global Warming Cooling anyone?

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This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on February 14, 2019 10:42 AM.

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