Recently in Climate Category

No surprises - against fossil fuels

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When it comes to the anthropogenic global warming scam, John Kerry is all against fossil fuels.
When it comes to making money? That is a different story - from the Daily Caller:

John Kerry Invested In Oil And Gas Stocks Before Joining White House, Filings Show
Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry owned shares of multiple oil and gas corporations prior to joining the White House, ethics filings show.

John Kerry previously invested in Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation, Duke Energy, Cimarex, Dominion Energy, Xcel Energy, Exelon Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation and WEC Energy Group, according to Office of Government Ethics filings obtained by Axios. Kerry sold off his entire stock portfolio, which was worth between $4.2 and $15 million, prior to joining President Joe Biden’s administration.

The Texas-based Valero Energy Corporation was recently ranked the fifth-worst emitter of greenhouse gasses despite having just 14 facilities, the San Antonio Current reported in December. The company was ordered to pay $2.85 million in a civil penalty in October for Clean Air Act violations, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Nothing like walking the walk after you talk the talk. What with all the rising ocean levels, it is good to know that he owns an $11 Million beachfront home in Martha's Vineyard. I will believe that there is a climate crisis when the people who are telling me that there is a climate crisis start acting like there is a climate crisis.  Simple as that.

This should be blindingly apparent to anyone who actually goes outside and checks the temperature.
From the New York Post:

Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy
‘The Science,” we’re told, is settled. How many times have you heard it? 

Humans have broken the earth’s climate. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless they’re eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, “The Science” says Earth is doomed. 

Yes, it’s true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. But beyond that — to paraphrase the classic movie “The Princess Bride” — “I do not think ‘The Science’ says what you think it says.” 

Much more at the site.  A lot of the "science" - including the (in)famous Michael Mann Hockey Stick graph - is based on computer models and "reconstruction". The numbers are cherry-picked to advance the narrative. All the while, everything points to a cooling trend lasting for maybe several hundred years. Our sun is a variable star and is entering a quiet cycle.

Earth day - the state of the climate

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A wonderful compilation of 50 years of climate scares.  From the Competitive Enterprise Institute:

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions
Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.

None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.

What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.

While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

What is wonderful about this article is that they post pictures of the articles along with links to source materials.  Here are three of them:

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Much much more at the site.  People need to remember that these people have always been wrong.

To state this simply, any prediction of catastrophe has always failed.
Don't believe me? Show me.  Point me to a prediction of catastrophe that was correct.

Simple as that.  Disagree? Show me.

Not evil.  The core constituant of all life on this planet.  From William Briggs:

The Looming Decarbocalypse — Guest Post by Uncle Mike
It goes without saying, but must be said anyway, that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the fundamental building block of all life. Every atom of carbon in your body (we are all carbon-based lifeforms) was once atmospheric CO2. Every molecule of Oxygen (O2) that you breathe (without which we would rapidly expire) was once atmospheric CO2.

The way life works is this: green plants (and algae) take in atmospheric CO2 and via photosynthesis turn it into plant sugars and free O2. Sunlight and water are also required for photosynthesis. Complex proteins including RuBisCO (see here) catalyze the reactions that capture CO2 and fix it into plant food. Green plants are the foundational base, the first link in the Food Chain. All animals ultimately rely on green plants for food. That includes fish and people. Even carnivores that never eat plants must consume animals that do eat plants.

Thus CO2 is the fundamental, essential, indispensable, crucial, all important substance for Life. Without CO2 there would be no life. Planet Earth would be a dead planet. Everybody with just a minuscule education knows this. Every scientist, whom we must assume has more than a minuscule education, knows this. It’s a fact if ever a fact there was.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has declared CO2 a “pollutant”. Ditto the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC). Scads of politicians, lobbyists, Big Media morons, and general idiots are bugged out of their minds about CO2. They want to eliminate it, despite the FACT that life depends utterly on CO2. How’s that for crazy? It’s worse than crazy, however. It’s deadly stupid. These ignorant savages want to eliminate Life Itself. That’s ABSOLUTE EVIL with all caps.

Much more at the site - lots of data and links.  Uncle Mike is speaking the truth. Our political elites are gearing up for a big push about "climate emergency" over the next couple of months. Be prepared. Be armed with the facts. Do not yield to these idiots. They are tryely clueless and are only jockying for political gain and using the crisis de jour as their lever. This will blow over and some new crisis will come over the horizon.

The single fact to take away from all this?  Carbon Dioxide is Plant Food. Essential for all life.
Without it, you and I would not be alive.

From Climate Change Dispatch:

It’s Official: Greenland Hasn’t Warmed Since 2001
A new study (Hanna et al., 2021) affirms a significant warming trend occurred in the late 20th century across Greenland, mirroring the warming that occurred in the early 20th century.

Since 2001, the temperature trends across Greenland have stopped rising and begun cooling.

A temperature pattern has been emerging in Greenland during the last few decades that does not align with alarming proclamations of catastrophic ice sheet melt from accelerated warming.

After significant summer (winter) warming of about 2°C (to 4°C) from the 1980s to 2000, Greenland’s warming trend has plateaued and, since 2012, a cooling trend has commenced.

Much more at the site - links to actual data instead of computer models. Everything points to a cooling period.

Start preparing - NOW.

Stormy weather - really stormy

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It was pretty stormy around here last Sunday and Monday.  How stormy?
How about sustained winds of 100 MPH for over 15 hours.  From Cliff Mass:

143 mph in the Cascades, Snowflakes in the Lowlands, and Strong Winds: A Very Powerful Cold Front Crosses the Region
A powerful cold front moved through the region yesterday.

At Camp Muir at 10,000 ft winds gusted to 143 mph, with winds over 100 mph for 15 hours. Amazing.

Ho. Li. Crap. That is powerful. Been up to Camp Muir a couple of times by myself and summited Rainier twice.
I love the ocean but the mountains have their call as well.

Harbinger of spring - SR-20

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One of the harbingers of spring showed up today - this announcement from the WA State Department of Transportation:

Spring clearing of SR 20 North Cascades Highway starts April 5
A telltale sign of spring in the Pacific Northwest is the clearing of State Route 20 North Cascades Highway between the Methow and Skagit valleys, and this year’s reopening work is scheduled to start April 5.

Depending on weather conditions, reopening usually takes about 4 to 6 weeks.

More snow than usual
The pass closes every year in late November or early December based on snow conditions. Dozens of avalanche paths cross the highway, making it too dangerous to keep the highway open through the winter. In 2020, the North Cascades closed on Nov. 13. Our maintenance and avalanche control crews assess snow levels and avalanche conditions in early spring to determine a date to begin reopening work.

This year’s snow levels were slightly higher than average and the Liberty Bell avalanche chutes still hold a substantial amount of snow. This presents a potential safety hazard for reopening crews, so allowing for additional melt off makes more manageable and safer conditions for workers.

Snow level higher than average?  Sounds like global warming to me...

Looks like we are in for a spell of weather. From Cliff Mass:

A Powerful Front Will Cross Washington Bringing Strong Winds and Snow in the Mountains (A Perhaps Some Flakes to the Lowlands)
A powerful Pacific front is bearing down on Washington State, reaching the coast tomorrow morning.

Behind the front is unusually cool air for late March, cold enough to bring snowflakes to the higher hills of the region, and bountiful snow in the mountains. And there will be winds.

The predicted surface weather maps provide the story (below). These maps show sea level pressure, temperature (color shading, blue is cold, yellow is warmer), and near-surface winds.

The first weather map, valid for 8 AM Sunday morning, shows the front (red line) offshore. That front is in a region lower pressure (a pressure trough) and you will note much cooler (bluer) air behind. Also, note the large north-south pressure difference across western Washington...that means winds.

More at the site - looks big. Hunkering down.  Still planning to drive up to the farm later today but it is not going to be the sunny weather that was being forecast a few days ago. Meeting up with D. tomorrow - it will be fun to catch up.

From Watts Up With That comes a look at the recorded temperature data for Iceland and Greenland.
Warming? Quite the contrary:

Greenland And Iceland Mean Winter Temperatures Continue Cooling Since Start Of The Century
The February 2021 data for Iceland and Greenland are available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which means the latest meteorological DJF winter mean temperature can be computed.

Icelandic winters have cooled since 2001
We plotted the JMA data for three stations (the ones with sufficient data) in Iceland. Result: no warming over the past 18 winters!

Lots of numbers and charts and actual data and all that good stuff.  Nary a computer model in sight. Getting colder out there. Sun's activity is quieting down. Prepare for colder temperatures.

A big ole' blast of Winter

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Spring (the Vernal Equinox) may only be a few days away but the coming cold period is making its presence known.
From The Denver Post (with more reporting here and yes, it is record-breaking weather):

Winter storm dumps snow across Denver and the Front Range
More than 19 inches of snow fell at Denver International Airport between Saturday and Sunday morning, making this snowstorm one of the biggest in the last 15 years. And it’s not over yet.

From the PowerOutage.US website, we can see that Colorado has 24K customers without power.

Our sun is very quiet right now and all the hype over Carbon Dioxide is just that. When the sun is active, we are warmer.  When the sun is quiet, we are colder. Ice ages and warmth. Our sun is a variable star. The idea that we as humans can impact the climate of Earth is pure fscking hubris and nothing more. Earth is huge and robust. It has been here before we showed up and it will be here for long after we are gone.

Our founding fathers were weather nuts. From current-day weather nut Cliff Mass:

The Revolutionary Weather Observers
It is not well known that the founders of the American republic were avid amateur meteorologists, with many of them taking weather observations daily.  George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, and others were intrigued about the meteorology and climate of the new nation and deeply curious about the natural world.

By the time of the American revolution, relatively decent thermometers, barometers, and rain gauges were available, and taking weather observations was all the rage.
Take Thomas Jefferson, our third President and the primary author of the Declaration of Independence.

He started taking observations in Monticello, VA in the early 1770s, doing so twice a day....once at dawn and again at 4 PM. On his way to Philadelphia in 1776, he picked up a thermometer and took FOUR observations on July 4, 1776.

Amazingly, the high temperature that day was 76F!

More at the site - our nation has a fascinating history. It is a shame that the communists seek to overwrite it with their fallacious garbage.

Watermelon environmentalist

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Green on the outside.  Bright Red inside.
Cutting our energy use is their pathway to cutting capitalism.
Nobody would stand for a direct attack on capitalism - you want to do what?
So they have to sneak it past us - a sugar coating.

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Meanwhile, our Sun continues to be quiet.  Very very quiet. Looks like we have a period of global cooling in order.
From Electroverse:

WORST SNOWFALL IN 50+ YEARS HITS MOSCOW, MANITOBA SETS 20 NEW COLD RECORDS ON SATURDAY ALONE (IN BOOKS DATING BACK TO 1879), AND CARS HAVE BEEN BURIED UNDER SNOWDRIFTS IN BRITAIN
Record cold and snow has buffeted much of the Northern Hemisphere of late: from northern Asia, to the majority of Europe, to practically ALL of North America — the NH is suffering a truly historic winter of 2020/21 as the Grand Solar Minimum intensifies.

At a time when Solar Cycle 25 should be “ramping-up” the Sun has instead been eerily quiet — it has been “blank” (devoid of sunspots) for the past 11 consecutive days now (as of Mon, Feb. 15) which makes for 28 spotless days in 2021, or 61%.

Low solar activity has serious implications for our climate via forcings such as cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays and meridional jet stream flows (to name just two) — the upshot of which is always global cooling

We need to prepare for this. Warming is not a problem.  Cooling is. We are seeing the first stages.  All that the global warming people have to offer for proof is the output from their computer models.  Actual data - boot-on-the-ground measurements tell a completely different story. Our planet is getting colder. Some places are warmer, some places are colder - this is weather.  Overall? Temperatures are down. This is global cooling.

alt.energy in the news - Texas

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Looks like there is some Schadenfreude regarding the Lone Star State as well. From Anthony Watts:

Texas frozen wind power – outages ensue, electricity now at unheard of $9000 per megawatt-hour
There’s a saying in the lone star state “Don’t Mess with Texas” which actually started out as an anti-littering campaign but has become sort of a slogan for the rugged, no-nonsense way of life that people have there. Now with dead wind turbines littering the state, the focus on deploying unreliable renewable energy in the name of “saving the planet” has literally “messed with Texas” in a huge way.

Ice storms knocked out nearly half the wind-power generating capacity of Texas on Sunday as a massive deep freeze across the state locked up wind turbine generators, creating an electricity generation crisis.

Wind generation ranks as the second-largest source of energy in Texas, accounting for 23% of state power supplies last year, behind natural gas, which represented 45%, according to Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) figures.

ERCOT reports today the spot price for electricity in Texas is currently a stunning $9000 per MegaWatt-hour. Even in the high demand summer months, $100 per MW-hr would be high.

And they are sitting on huge reserves of natural gas and petroleum. How much bad weather to people need to experience before they start to question the Global Warming narrative? The data is all around us.

I may grouse about the weather but...

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I am glad I am not in Texas - from Texas Storm Chasers:

MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR ALL 254 TEXAS COUNTIES TONIGHT, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
Winter Storm Watches or Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for nearly all of Texas. Technically, they include at least a portion of all 254 counties in the state. However, the watch technically does not yet include the city of El Paso.

For simplicity and for the fact I’ve been running on little sleep for days, we’ll go ahead and say the entire state. Those within a winter storm watch will likely be upgraded to a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning later today. Those upgrades occur when we’re within 24-36 hours of the event.

Don’t get hung up on the terminology of what ‘winter weather’ alert affects your location. The bottom line is we’re expecting accumulating winter precipitation and brutally cold weather across all of Texas over the next several days. Another significant winter storm is on the table for Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

Makes what is happening in our little island paradise seem like a spring shower. Looks really bad. Also, because it is so widespread, what snow removal equipment Texas does have is going to be spread very thin. It is not just the United States that is getting hit - the entire Northern Hemisphere is freezing. Australia is having problems too.

In England, the River Thames has frozen over - first time in 60 years. During the Maunder and Dalton minima, it used to do this on a regular basis - they would have Frost Fairs - booths on the ice and a grand promenade down the middle as people walked over the water. More here.

Our Sun drives our climate and our Sun is entering a quiet period.  We can look forward to an extended period of cooler than normal weather. Any idea that we, as a human race, can affect the global climate by our actions is simply pure hubris on our part. This planet is so much bigger than we are it is not funny. More people die from cold than they do from heat so this is something that needs to be addressed ASAP.  Being environmentally clean and not polluting is a good thing but the idea that we are having a negative impact on our climate is absurd.

Snowstorm

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Update on the forecast from Cliff Mass:

Snowstorm Tonight
The models have converged. Uncertainty is less. A snowstorm will hit western Washington tomorrow.

But it will be a snowstorm with a twist: radical differences in snowfall within a matter of tens of miles.

The theme from the movie JAWS should be playing as I show you the latest infrared satellite image (see below), with lots of moisture ready to move in tonight.

Spotty snowfall but looks like this little island might get several inches of white stuff if not 8" to 10". Should be fun.  Got my snow shoes dug out and ready. A nice walk in for coffee.

Another great one from Blazing Cat Fur:

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Watermelons - green on the outside and bright red on the inside. Always have been. Always will be.  The environment is just another route to achieve personal power for these tyrants. They claim to have our best interests at heart but that is just their sociopathy and narcissism talking to us - nothing else.

The down side to environmentalism

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And what is that?  Why, the environment of course.  Try to get rid of baseline reliable power generation and move to unreliable "natural" sources and every so often, Mother Nature sends a wake-up call.  Germany this time:

Winter Storm Threatens Germany’s Power…Freezing Hell Threatens If Already Rickety Grid Collapses!
A winter blizzard is set to strike Central Europe, bringing with it the potential to wreak power outage havoc. Temperatures will plummet to as low as -15°C accompanied by bone-chilling high winds. Closed shops due to COVID-19 are leaving citizens unprepared. A protracted power outage would be devastating.

In the coming hours, a high pressure system situated over Scandinavia and storm Tristan to the south will collide over central Europe and develop into dangerous weather conditions over one of Europe’s most populated regions, North Rhine Westphalia Germany.

There are some major problems with this storm that will test the German power grid stability and even possibly the citizens’ ability to fend for themselves.

Power grid at risk: hours of freezing rain
First will be the band of freezing rain that is forecast across the Ruhr region of North Rhine Westphalia. According to Kachelmannwetter.de, the freezing rain period could last hours and thus lead to heavy weight loads on power transmission structures as ice builds up. Lines could collapse.

High winds – even heavier loads
To make matters worse, high winds will further exacerbate the loads on the already ice-coated power transmission infrastructure – thus increasing the probability of power line structural failure and an ensuing power blackout, which in turn could cascade and threaten the European power grid.

Winter blackout not unprecedented
Such a blackout would not be unprecedented. In 2006, a major European blackout was caused by a disconnection of a powerline crossing in northwest Germany. The power outage quickly cascaded across Europe, extending from Poland in the north-east, to the Benelux countries and France in the west, through to Portugal, Spain and Morocco in the south-west, and across to Greece and the Balkans in the south-east.

More at the site - like the author said, these things have happened before but that was back when we had a lot more fossil fuel and nuclear power plants in operation and the dependence on non-baseload generating capacity was not as dire.

The basic truth is that more people die from cold than die from heat.  This will be a horrible event but it will (hopefully) serve as a wake-up call.  The environmentalists will never go away - there is always a subset of the population with mental illness and a willingness to believe doom and gloom stories. Thomas Malthus initially wrote his bullshit back in 1798 and we still have faithful little Malthusians regurgitating his dreck today.

At least this will serve as a wake-up call to the rest of us.  There are activists out there for every fringe belief system out there.  Where are the activists for the rest of us.  Us normals.  Where are OUR activists?

Yowza - global warming anyone?

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Watch them try to spin this one on greenhouse gasses:

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-40 at the heart of it. One for the record books.  Until next year.

Everything East of the Rocky Mountains is getting hammered with snowfall (blame global whatever right?). Here is one idea to make digging out a bit more pleasant:

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From gCaptain - say hello to our little friend:

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North Atlantic Storm Forecasted to Produce Massive 60-Foot Seas
The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center is predicting seas in excess of 60 feet associated with a low pressure system that has rapidly intensified in the North Atlantic off the northeast coast of the U.S.

“Low pressure rapidly intensified yesterday and overnight, and continues to produce #hurricaneforce winds to 75 kt today,” the Ocean Prediction Center said in an update posted to Facebook.

At 12:00 UTC, National Weather Serviced meteorologists analyzed significant wave heights of 52 feet, or 16 meters, associated with the storm. The latest NWS North Atlantic High Seas Forecast showed a Hurricane Force Wind Warning is in effect for the area with seas forecasted to build to 60 feet, or more than 18 meters, over the next 24 hours!

Batten down the hatches.  Going to be a big one.

MSNBC, Rachel Maddow and Chuck the Schmuck - need I say more:

From the MSNBC page:

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tells Rachel Maddow that he thinks President Biden should declare the climate change crisis an emergency, which would give him greater ability to enact policies around Republican obstruction. Aired on 01/26/2021.

And, by the way, can anyone point me to data that refutes the fact that we are entering a period of global cooling?  The modern warm period lasted from around 1950's through 2006 or so. Our sun is cooling and so are the rest of the planets in our solar system. The computer models say otherwise but the recorded data agree.

The video has 650+ comments and you can guess how most of them read...

Two highway alerts - WA State

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SR = State Route = major highway but not an interstate.

    • WSDOT ALERT: SR 14 - CLOSED in both directions at milepost 55.0 due to a debris slide – 7-miles east of Carson, WA
    • WSDOT ALERT: SR 4 - CLOSED in both directions between mileposts 13.0-13.7, due to flooding – 4-miles west of Grays River

These are both in the South of the state near the border with Oregon.  This is where the Atmospheric River was forecast to hit and hit it did. The Columbia River is not showing that much of an increase but its water flow is tightly regulated by the dams. Keeping an eye on this - not done yet...

Of course, Cliff has more:

Heavy Precipitation and the Mid-Winter Water Update for Our Region
As promised, a potent atmospheric river has hit our region, with very heavy precipitation on the upwind (windward) sides of regional terrain.

Let be begin by showing you a satellite-based view of total atmospheric moisture from late yesterday. Purple and red are the highest amounts. Satellites can sense water vapor content based on the emission of radiation by water vapor.

You can see the plume of moisture heading into us from the southwest. Amazingly, our moisture plume can be traced back thousands of miles to the western Pacific near the Philippines and Indonesia: the region of the warmest water on the planet, known as the warm pool.

Much more at the site.

Look what the weather fairies brought for me today.  From local Weather Rock-star Cliff Mass:

A Strong Atmosphere River Approaches
The most powerful atmospheric river of the season so far is now imminent and will reach our coast later tomorrow (Monday).

Atmospheric rivers are fascinating creatures. Why does atmosphere concentrate water vapor into fast moving narrow currents? And why do such currents provide such bountiful precipitation and are so optimal for promoting floods and landslides? These questions are among those that I and others have researched over the past decades and pretty much understand.

Below is a graphic showing the key parameter that characterizes atmosphere rivers, something called Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT),that is forecast for Monday night at 10 PM. IVT is essentially the magnitude of the water vapor being moved by the atmospheric. Mathematically, water vapor constant times wind speed.

In this figure, the blue areas are locations with very high values of IVT (over 800 in the units shown)

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Looks like Portland and Southwest WA will get hit the most but we will certainly get wet up here. Looks actually OK for moving this afternoon - it will hit here late today/early tomorrow. Got another one coming in Wednesday morning. The fun never stops around here...

Fun times - local weather

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Ho. Li. Crap. - from Cliff Mass:

An Intense Front, Strong Winds, Heavy Precipitation, Flooding and Big Waves: The Northwest Will Be Hit By Everything
Today will offer something for every meteorological taste, except for sunny and warm.

The front page of the National Weather Service's web page is lit up with almost every imaginable meteorological warning and advisory (see below). High wind warnings, storm warnings, winter weather advisory, high surf advisory, flood warnings, and more.

Been pretty hairy out there. Lots of wind. 74 out in our local area3,600 for Puget Sound Electric.   69 in Oregon.   About 3,350 in British Columbia.  This is not the first storm of the season and the first one usually shakes down anything that can cause an outage.  By now, power is pretty much bulletproof. The mighty Stillaguamish has peaked but it is still raining so there should be another peak as the groundwater percolates in.

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Fun times indeed.

Oh joy - more rain

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More rain in epic quantities - from IBM's Weather.com:

Special Weather Statement until FRI 1:45 PM PST

Affected Area
Admiralty Inlet Area

Description
...HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Rainfall of 3 to 10 inches over much of the lowlands during the past 18 days has increased soil moisture to high levels across western Washington. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 8 inches is expected Friday through Sunday. This amount of rain will put extra pressure on soil instability, leading to an increased threat of landslides.

That is deluge territory.  Looking at the chart for the Mighty Stilly in Arlington:

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Right now it's about 3.7 times normal (little triangles).  See what happens in the next few days.  This is another Pineapple Express.

Wild weather

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North of here is getting snow, south of here is getting high temperatures. From Seattlle station KOMO:

Wild storm brings heavy rains, snow, damaging winds and record heat around Puget Sound
A strong warm front brought a wild day of weather across Western Washington on this first day of winter Monday, complete with record springtime warmth, record rains with widespread urban street flooding, strong winds, and lowland snowfall(???) -- all in the same region!

Heavy rains caused widespread flooding of local roads in the Puget Sound area, with snow snarling traffic in the far northern reaches of the state, and wind toppling trees in the South Sound.

In Lynnwood, "widespread flooding" was occurring over major roadways in the area, including 44th Ave. West.

And to the North?

Meanwhile, on the north side of the storm, the system is drawing in cooler air from British Columbia making for a more traditional winter entrance along the Northern Olympic Peninsula -- where it was snowing around Port Angeles and across much of Whatcom County and the San Juan Islands.

And the temperatures?

Seattle warmed to 59 degrees, smashing the record high of 56 degrees set in 2005 with nary a peek of sun to be had. It reached 60 in Tacoma and 61 in Puyallup and Renton(!!!).

No lightning. Convergence zones usually bring lightning. This area is still just a couple hundred out.  Puget Sound Electric has just under 12,000 outages, Oregon, 6,200 and BC Hydro continues to bring it home with 72,300 household outages. A dark and stormy night indeed.

Who ordered this? Snow.

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Nothing here yet but it is snowing up North.

From the WS DOT traffic came for the Blaine Peace Arch at the Canadian border:

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Cliff Mass has more: Superfront Brings Snow to Western Washington in Unusual Conditions

Couple hundred households without power in this area. Puget Sound Electric has about 7,900 outages, Oregon, 1,500 and BC Hydro takes home the brass ring with over 62,000 household outages.

Today's wind storm

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Not as strong as they had forecast - here are the conditions from about an hour ago - National Weather Service:

Looks like Vancouver Island is going to get hit and hit hard.  From Cliff Mass:

A Meteorological "Bomb" Will Hit Northern Vancouver Island On Tuesday
In meteorology we have a name for midlatitude storms that intensify explosively. Such storms, known as meteorological bombs, occur when the central low pressure of a storm drops at least 24 hPa in twenty four hours. (A hPa is a unit of pressure, also known as a millibar.)

The forecast models are now emphatic that such explosive development will occur tonight and tomorrow over the eastern Pacific, with the resulting intense low pressure center headed for the northern tip of Vancouver Island.

Take a look at the latest forecast for Tuesday at 11 AM shown below: a 961 hPa low center! Wow.

One of the deepest lows to approach our region in years. Our typical low center dropx to around 990 hPa and the greatest storm of all...the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was 955 hPa.

Ho. Li. Crap. Calling for gusts in the San Juan's. Batten down the hatches - here we go again.

A mighty wind - Oregon

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An interesting shift in the wind.  South of Eugine is getting plastered. Compare the two outage maps - from 90 minutes ago:

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And now:

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The linemen from Pacific Power are doing their usual excellent work restoring service but there is a brand new cluster of over 6,000 outages.  What happened there?

The power just "bumped" here - heading out for a dog walk, some coffee and see what they day brings.

The winds are here - Oregon

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Looks like the projected windstorm is hitting further South than was originally forecast - Oregon is getting pummeled with 8,387 customers out. Here is a map of the power outages:

20201113-power-OR.jpg

So far, the other utilities are fine with only a small number of outages: Puget Sound Electric, Snohomish PUD, BC Hydro

Lots of rain/cold/snow to come.

From the WA State Department of Transportation:

Chinook and Cayuse passes closed for the season due to heavy snow
The gates to State Routes 410 and 123 inside Mount Rainier National Park, including Chinook and Cayuse passes, are closed for the season after heavy snow and a forecast of more to come.

These routes closed temporarily Tuesday night, Nov. 10, due to deteriorating travel conditions and a 14-vehicle collision, which included commercial vehicles that are not allowed to travel through the park.

After an assessment of the roads and the upcoming forecast, Washington State Department of Transportation, in coordination with Mount Rainier National Park, made the decision to keep State Route 410/Chinook Pass and State Route 123/Cayuse Pass closed for the winter.

Forcast is for a cold wet one - great for the skiers and boarders.  A strong La Nina this year.

Prayers going out to the Philippines

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From GCaptain:

Philippines Evacuates 1 Million As Super Typhoon Goni Approaches
Officials have evacuated almost a million residents in the southern part of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon as a category 5 storm – the world’s strongest this year – makes landfall on Sunday.

Super Typhoon Goni, with 215 kph (133 miles) sustained winds and gusts of up to 265 kph (164 mph), will bring violent winds and strong rains, state weather and disaster officials said.

They get about 20 typhoons each year but this is an exceptionally large one. Luzon accounts for about 50% of the total Philippine GDP.  Had the great pleasure of visiting there for a few days during a visit to China and Taiwan in the 1980's Did not stay long but met some genuinely wonderful and friendly people. Would love to visit there again. Beautiful place too.

Who ordered this? Local weather

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First, from the National Weather Service:

Freeze Watch for Island County, WA
FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures of 27 to 32 degrees possible. Coldest temperatures expected away from urban areas.

WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Washington.

WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Raining and cold right now - was gloriously clear last night but the rain moved in around 4AM and has not let up. Supposed to be nice and clear tomorrow - lots of radiative cooling.

And now, I ran into this little bundle of joy - from weather.com:

Gale Warning from FRI 9:00 PM PDT until SAT 1:00 PM PDT
Affected Area: East Entrance U. S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca and Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY

WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing Friday night to 30 to 40 kt.

WHERE...East Entrance U. S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca and Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM PDT Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening.

IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

Happy happy joy joy

A bit of rainfall

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From the mighty Stillguamish river:

20201012-stilly.jpg

Note that the 92 year running average is just over 600 cu Ft/second and it is now 8,000 cu Ft/second. A bit of an increase if you ask me...

Our climate warriors

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So true - pathetic bunch of wankers:

20201005-climate.jpg

Our interesting (and very cool) sun

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Been a lot cooler than usual.  Looks like the Modern Warm Period is ending its 100 year run. But... Something interesting is happening.

Cooler? Fewer sunspots.  Sunspots are a good proxy for solar output. The more sunspots, the hotter the sun and the warmer our Earth.  This affects the Martian Ice Caps too so it is not just this planet. Last year, we had a record year of low sunspot numbers with 281 days without sunspots (or 77% of the year). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913 (311 days).  This year, we are currently at 190 days - 71% - so it is not likely that we will beat this record (96 days left in the year so we would need to have 91 of them be sunspot-free to tie) but this is still a very low number.

What we are starting to see is an increased Planetary K-Index  This is a measurement of radio flux from the sun and is independent of sunspot activity.  The K-Index impacts the earth directly as it is a measurement of the flux that gives us the Northern (or Southern) lights. Usually, it has been 0 - 1 - sometimes 2.  Now, it has been hitting 4.  The scale is logarithmic so 3 is ten times 2, 4 is ten times 3, etc...  This is causing some beautiful aurora borealis in the arctic.  It needs to be up to 6 and above to get reliable aurora in these latitudes. From right now:

20200926-k-index.jpg

Some interesting times.  Got a load of firewood laid in last spring so it is nice and cured.  Had a small fire yesterday and it was delicious. Warmed the house up with just a few logs. Thinking that I am going to need every stick this year. Had some left over last year.  We will see...

The second tranche of rainfall

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Made its way into the mighty Stillaguamish River at Arlington.  Notice that the scale on the left has changed from yesterday:

20200926-stilly.jpg

4000 was the scale maximum yesterday, they bumped it up to 7000 for today. Cubic feet per second. A lot of water. Some nice weather moving in over the next couple of days.

We have rain

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The mighty Stilliguamish River - a flow gauge near Arlington:

20200925-stilly.jpg

It takes a day or so for the rainfall to travel to the rivers so the current (met. humor) deluge will show up in a day or so. Second tranche.

Still no lightning. Dagnabit - they promised us lightning...

The autumn rains

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Gonna get wet - from Cliff Mass (note: this was written Tuesday evening - tomorrow=today):

Heavy Rain and the Beginning of Autumn
Autumn began at 6:30 AM this morning and the atmosphere is clearly watching the calendar.

Tomorrow will bring the first of a series of wet weather systems, each associated with a potent atmospheric river, that will bring as much as TEN inches of precipitation to the northern Cascades and Olympics.

As a result, wildfire season in Washington State will be coming to an abrupt close.

Precipitation will be heaviest during two periods, one tomorrow and the other on Saturday, when atmospheric rivers--narrow currents of large water vapor values--will make landfall on our coast.

And we are then going to be hit by an atmospheric river. Not our usual Pineapple Express but a river none the less:

Even more impressive is the atmospheric river on Saturday morning.....wow...this is serious!  Fascinating how moisture is concentrated into such narrow "atmospheric rivers".  I will explain why in a future blog.

20200923-river.jpg

Ho. Li. Crap. Staring down the barrel of a deluge.  The house is snug, good roof and got some nice raingear. Got firewood laid in for this winter and lots of food in storage. Life is good.

April 2021

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