China and Taiwan

things are warming up over there... from the Washington Post bq. On the eve of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit, the Bush administration signaled a tougher stance on Taiwan's moves toward independence yesterday, warning the island nation not to take any unilateral steps that might provoke the government on the Chinese mainland. bq. A senior administration official, briefing reporters in advance of Wen's meeting with President Bush today, said the administration had decided to drop a policy known as "strategic ambiguity" -- declining to say how it would respond to efforts by either nation to change Taiwan's status. Instead, the official said, actions by both countries had forced the administration to spell out more clearly what it thinks each nation should do to maintain stability in the Taiwan straits. from National Review bq. Of all the many wild cards in the wartime deck � whether Saddam has weapons of mass destruction and how he'll use them, what role Israel will play, how Turkey, the Gulf states, and Europe will react � China is the wildest, and probably the most dangerous. bq. China views itself not as America's strategic partner, but as America's strategic competitor. In Asia and around the world, China is vying to replace the old Soviet Union as the next challenger to what it sees as America's ambitions toward hegemony. To this end, China's People's Liberation Army (probably the most misnamed military in the world � it neither belongs to the people nor liberates them) issued an annual white paper predicting war with the United States within ten years. An American war with Iraq might just offer China the opportunity to test our resolve as well as our ability to deal with multiple threats simultaneously. It might even offer China the chance to invade Taiwan. Steven DenBeste has an interesting read on what could happen if the Chinese actually try to invade - remember, they do not want to destroy this country, they just want to take over the government so they can benefit from the economy. All those chip and motherboard companies add up to a good chunk of change... bq. My opinion is that Taiwan is capable of defending itself against an invasion by China without our help, and with our help such an invasion would be hopeless. But we would not help with ground troops; our contribution would be naval and air. A hypothetical invasion of Taiwan would be won or lost in and over the straight of Taiwan. bq. In many ways the closest equivalent in the history of warfare is the English Channel in WWII. After France fell in 1940, Germany planned operation Seel�we (Sea lion), an amphibious assault on the UK. Barges and other ships were accumulated in ports in France and Belgium and the Netherlands, but there were two problem: the Royal Navy Home Fleet, and RAF Bomber Command. He goes on: bq. The lesson of the Channel is that for an invasion to succeed on land, you have to have absolute control over the water; and to do that you have to have absolute control of the air over the water. bq. The Battle of Britain wasn't fought on the ground, and a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan wouldn't be, either. If we got involved, we would fight with naval forces and air forces, not with ground troops. We would use carrier battle groups (probably two) operating in open ocean east of Taiwan, land-based bombers flying out of Guam, fighters and bombers flying out of Okinawa, and attack subs. bq. To begin with, it should be clear that if China wanted to destroy Taiwan it could do so with nuclear-tipped missiles. Doing so would risk an American nuclear response, and for that and many other reasons I do not think that such an attack is being seriously contemplated by the leaders in Beijing. What they want, or claim to want (more on that later), is for Taiwan to be incorporated into China more or less intact. Ideally it would happen voluntarily, but that seems less likely every year, and any serious attempt at reunification now would have to be based on conventional military force. and more: bq. Taiwan would have to be assaulted with enough ground troops to defeat Taiwan's army of about 200,000 men in regular service, and an additional 1.5 million reserves, who are armed and trained specifically for counter-landing operations. Obviously it would take a huge force to defeat that; it isn't going to be done by a regiment or two. bq. Such a force can only be moved by sea, and would have to number in the hundreds of thousands at the very least. It is by no means clear that China has enough shipping to move such a force, but that's only the beginning of the problems facing any invasion plan. bq. In fact, it is by no means clear that China has that many troops who are actually capable of engaging in that kind of combat. The People's Liberation Army is immense, but equipment is terrible and training is poor and most of the soldiers spend their time in service working on PLA farms. And in 2000 China reduced the size of the People's Liberation Army by 500,000 men. Interesting times - the next ten years will be fun to live through...