Recently in Climate Category

Rain rain go away

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Been raining more than usual for Spring in the Pacific Northwest. This has caught Cliff Mass' eye (here and here). It sounds really nice on the roof but it is taking its toll - Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS LED TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...
Rainfall of up to 2 to 5 inches over the lowlands and foothills of western Washington in the past several days has once again increased soil moisture to high levels. Light to moderate showers are expected today that could add up to only a half an inch to an inch in some places. But with these wet soils that could be enough to trigger a landslide or two. This elevated threat will persist through Tuesday, before slowly decreasing over the following few days.

Several landslides have already been reported or suspected in various locations in western Washington in the last day or two, including on the Burke-Gilman trail in King County, and this morning on the railroad tracks just south of Everett.

Just wonderful. A lot of the island shoreline is bluff - hope that everybody stays safe.

Our quiet sun - some more data

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Looks like we are in for a period of very cool weather - from Anthony Watts:

Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball
On Sunday NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, covering sunspot activity for March 2018.

March 2018 was the least active month for sunspots since the middle of 2009, almost nine years ago. In fact, activity in the past few months has been so low it matches the low activity seen in late 2007 and early 2008, ten years ago when the last solar minimum began and indicated by the yellow line that I have added to the graph below. If the solar minimum has actually arrived now, this would make this cycle only ten years long, one of the shortest solar cycles on record. More important, it is a weak cycle. In the past, all short cycles were active cycles. This is the first time we have seen a short and weak cycle since scientists began tracking the solar cycle in the 1700s, following the last grand minimum in the 1600s when there were almost no sunspots.

And the big question:

The big question remains: Are we about to head into a grand minimum, as happened during the Maunder Minimum in the 1600s? During that century there were practically no sunspots. Since it occurred immediately after the invention of the telescope, astronomers had no idea that the lack of sunspots were unusual and did not give it much attention. It wasn’t until the solar cycle resumed in the 1700s that they discovered its existence, and thus realized the extraordinary nature of the century-long minimum that had just ended. Unfortunately, it was over, and the chance to study it was gone.

And will this inactivity have an impact on our climate?

Furthermore, the occurrence of a grand minimum now would help the climate field. We really do not know the full influence of the Sun’s solar cycles on the Earth’s climate. There is ample circumstantial evidence that it has a significant impact, such as the Little Ice Age that occurred during the last grand minimum, as well as the unusually cold climates that also matched past weak cycles, now, and also in the early 19th and 20th centuries. Studying a grand minimum with today’s sophisticated instruments could help measure precisely how much the Sun’s sunspot activity, or lack thereof, changes the climate here on Earth.

Cold weather kills more people than warm weather - time to button up and lay in a couple months of food. Prices are going to get high.

Abject lunacy at $40,000 per mile

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Only in California. From FOX News:

Los Angeles painting city streets white in bid to combat climate change
California officials are hoping their latest attempt to stem the rising tides of climate change leads to a more socially conscious -- and cooler -- summer.

Officials in Los Angeles have been painting streets white to reduce the effect of urban "heat islands" and combat the effects of climate change.

The LA Street Services began rolling out the project last May, which preliminary testing shows has reduced the temperature of roadways by up to 10 degrees. The project involves applying a light gray coating of the product CoolSeal, made by the company GuardTop.

Just great - it is single-sourced; only available from one company. They have been around since 1983 so their products are probably pretty good but I could see a lot of other places where this money could be spent - like fixing the road surfaces for one. Last time I drove in California was a couple of years ago (blacksmith convention) and they were really bad then. Cannot imagine what they are like now.

A two-fer

First, from the National Weather Service:

...WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...
Windy conditions are possible Saturday over much of Western Washington. A deep low pressure center is forecast by most weather models to move north off the coast on Saturday. This will bring strong southerly winds to Washington.

High wind is possible in some areas. As always, the exact track and strength of the low will determine where and whether any high wind will occur. The zones most likely to get high wind--sustained wind of 40 mph or gusts to 58 mph--are the coast and northern inland areas. Most other places exposed to southerly wind could have wind in the 20-35 mph range, with gusts to 50 mph.

Second from Seattle's Cliff Mass:

Monster Late-Season Atmospheric River Will Hit the West Coast With Heavy Rain and Strong Winds
An extraordinarily strong atmospheric river will hit the West Coast starting tomorrow in the Pacific Northwest and then moving southward into California on Friday and Saturday.

A monster that will be one the strongest on record, particularly this late in the season. And to add to the fun, an extremely powerful storm will form off our coast, bringing very strong winds over the Oregon coast. Again, very unusual this time of the year.

Time to batten down the hatches and stay inside.

Global Warming in the news

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This time from Investors Business Daily:

The Stunning Statistical Fraud Behind The Global Warming Scare
Global Warming: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may have a boring name, but it has a very important job: It measures U.S. temperatures. Unfortunately, it seems to be a captive of the global warming religion. Its data are fraudulent.

What do we mean by fraudulent? How about this: NOAA has made repeated "adjustments" to its data, for the presumed scientific reason of making the data sets more accurate.

Nothing wrong with that. Except, all their changes point to one thing — lowering previously measured temperatures to show cooler weather in the past, and raising more recent temperatures to show warming in the recent present.

This creates a data illusion of ever-rising temperatures to match the increase in CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere since the mid-1800s, which global warming advocates say is a cause-and-effect relationship. The more CO2, the more warming.

More at the site with links to corroborating data. NOAA is promoting a narrative instead of actual science. Talk about needing a good housecleaning...

My Mom's family is from Erie and I spent a lot of time there as a kid. Seems that Al Gore must be visiting as they are getting record levels of snow. From the NOAA NCEI Climate twitter account:

With 156 inches between December 2017 and February 2018, Erie, Pennsylvania, set a new record for most winter snowfall: http://bit.ly/2oMzRba  #StateOfClimate #PAwx

Some video:

Global warming - a hopeful sign

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Hopefully, clearer heads are starting to come to the forefront. Maybe we will be finally rid of this pseudo-science. From the UK Telegraph (the Met office is their National Meteorological Office - weather forecasting and all that stuff):

Met Office chief executive sacked amid questions over 'governance and management'
The Met Office has been plunged into crisis after its chief executive was sacked over problems with “governance and management controls” at the £170 million a year public body.

Rob Varley was ordered to resign from his £160,000 post by the most senior civil servant at the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), which oversees the national weather service.

Mr Varley, who had worked at the Met Office for 34 years beginning as a trainee forecaster in 1983, agreed to step aside.

It comes at a pivotal time for the Met Office, which lost the contract to provide forecasting services for the BBC to its rival MeteoGroup. It will stop providing forecasts later this month. The Met Office has provided data for the BBC’s weather forecasts since the corporation’s first radio weather bulletin in November 1922.

Heh - they lost the Beeb contract because MeteoGroup offered more accurate forecasts. The Met Office has some wonderful toys (their Cray XC40 Supercomputer for example) but their models are toast. They are firmly in the global warming true believer camp and their work is just wishful thinking. MeteoGroup either lives or dies in the commercial market so they have the incentive to cut through the rhetoric and go outside and gather actual data.

Nice to see the beginnings of change. Restore sanity and clean science.

Our quiet sun - a consequence

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Our sun has been very quiet for the last ten or so years. What was supposed to be the start of another solar cycle has essentailly stalled out and the solar output is very low, the sun spends many days without any sunspots (a visible proxy for output) and our climate is cooling as a result.

Turns out that there are other consequences to this lower activity - from the American Geophysical Union's Space Weather:

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep-space exploration
Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events.

Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The Schwadron et al. (2014a) study examined the evolution of the interplanetary magnetic field, and utilized a previously published study by Goelzer et al. (2013) projecting out the interplanetary magnetic field strength based on the evolution of sunspots as a proxy for the rate that the Sun releases coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This led to a projection of dose rates from galactic cosmic rays on the lunar surface, which suggested a ∼20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next, and indicated that the radiation environment in space may be a worsening factor important for consideration in future planning of human space exploration.

We compare the predictions of Schwadron et al. (2014a) with the actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years. The observed dose rates exceed the predictions by ∼10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Much of this increase is attributable to relatively low-energy ions, which can be effectively shielded. Despite the continued paucity of solar activity, one of the hardest solar events in almost a decade occurred in Sept 2017 after more than a year of all-clear periods. These particle radiation conditions present important issues that must be carefully studied and accounted for in the planning and design of future missions (to the Moon, Mars, asteroids and beyond).

The Schwadron et al. (2014a) paper can be found here: Does the worsening galactic cosmic radiation environment observed by CRaTER preclude future manned deep space exploration?

The charged particles emanating from the sun ionize our Earth's atmosphere. This intensifies the action of our magnetic field which in turn, deflects incoming cosmic rays. Without a strong sun, more cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere and hit our planed. The interesting thing is that these will frequently "seed" clouds causing a cooling rain. Therefore, the cooling of our sun is directly causing additional cooling from increased rainfall.

Remind me once again what the big fuss is about global warming again? Sure, we had the modern warm period from 1970 to 2006 but that is over and done with. Now we need to worry about global cooling and its implications.

The Modern Warm Period

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All that talk about global warming... Turns out that we were going through the Modern Warm Period. Peole have noted that it has not been warming for the last 20 years or so. Dr. David Archibald looks at the actual numbers and makes the point that the warmest time in recent years was actually in 2006 and that there has been significant cooling ever since.

From Watts Up With That:

Some data suggests Global Cooling started in 2006
Many good things come to an end and that includes the Modern Warm Period. Mild winters and early springs are now spoken of in the past tense. The peak of the Modern Warm Period was 2006 as shown by the oceanic lead indicator, the Gulf Stream, also called the North Atlantic Current. 

Much more at the site - the numbers are actually very clear. No global warming. We actually need to be concerned about this as times of colder weather cause more damage than times of warmer weather - especially now that we have moved away from traditional fuels and heating costs are now significantly more expensive. More peole die from cold than from heat.

Science as it is done these days

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I love these expeditions to some remote place to PROVE global warming - they invarriably get turned back. Here is just the latest of a long string - from LiveScience:

Expedition to 'Hidden' Antarctic Ecosystem Turned Back by Heavy Ice
Scientists on their way to investigate a mysterious region of Antarctica's seafloor, hidden by thick ice for 120,000 years, have run into an obstacle: Their research ship has been forced to turn north, after dense sea ice prevented it from reaching the southern Larsen C ice-shelf.

The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) announced today (March 2) that the captain of the research vessel RRS James Clark Ross had made the "difficult decision" to turn back from the Larsen C region after encountering pack sea ice up to 16 feet (5 meters) thick.

Heh - got to love it. A collision between their computer models and reality. In a situation like this, reality will always win. They were hopeing to see the effect of sunlight on an area that had until recently been covered by a floating ice sheet. The ice sheet calved off due to global warming and not winds or ocean currents. They were going there to see open seas and sunlight - the got ice. Lots and lots of ice.

Quote of the day - climate

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Makes for some interesting reading:

Snows are less frequent and less deep. They do not often lie, below the mountains, more than one, two, or three days, and very rarely a week.  They are remembered to have been formerly frequent, deep, and of long continuance.  The elderly inform me the earth used to be covered with snow about three months in every year.  The rivers, which then seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now.  This change has produced an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold, in the spring of the year, which is very fatal to fruits.

And from the same author:

Snows are less frequent and less deep. They do not often lie, below the mountains, more than one, two, or three days, and very rarely a week.  They are remembered to have been formerly frequent, deep, and of long continuance.

Sounds like Global Warming to me but this was written in 1799 by President Thomas Jefferson.

From Seattle's very liberal Public Radio station KUOW:

13 kids sue Washington state for life, liberty and a livable climate
Thirteen kids are suing the state of Washington and its governor to protect their generation from climate change.

The plaintiffs range in age from 7 to 17.

Their suit, filed Friday in King County Superior Court, says Gov. Jay Inslee and state agencies are violating the constitutional rights of a generation by continuing to let dangerous amounts of carbon dioxide into the sky.

"They are not taking nearly enough action to fight climate change, which my generation is going to suffer from," 16-year-old plaintiff Jamie Margolin of Seattle said.

Let's follow the money:

Our Children's Trust, the nonprofit group behind the lawsuit, has filed similar suits with underaged plaintiffs in Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, North Carolina and Oregon.

Visit their website and you see a very large and seemingly well-funded organization interlinked with a lot of other similar organizations. Jamie - to put it bluntly - is their stooge. She is the sock-puppet this organization is using to advance their neo-Marxist campaign.

The Earth is just fine. Carbon Dioxide is the gas of life and these poor deluded fools would not recognize hard data if it came and bit them on their arses.

Talkin' about the weather - a two-fer

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Two great stories 

First - Malthusians and doom-sayers are always wrong - from The Washington Post:

Countries made only modest climate-change promises in Paris. They’re falling short anyway.
Barely two years ago, after weeks of intense bargaining in Paris, leaders from 195 countries announced a global agreement that once had seemed impossible. For the first time, the nations of the world would band together to reduce humanity’s reliance on fossil fuels in an effort to hold off the most devastating effects of climate change.

“History will remember this day,” the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, said amid a backdrop of diplomats cheering and hugging.

Two years later, the euphoria of Paris is colliding with the reality of the present.

Heh - the bloom is off the rose. Everyone loves to virtue signal but to actually DO SOMETHING? The very idea gives them a case of the vapors. Buried deep in the article is this admission:

“More than two decades ago, the world agreed to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in our air to prevent dangerous climate outcomes,” said Rob Jackson, an energy and climate expert at Stanford University, referring to the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change that set international negotiations in motion. “To date, we have failed.”

They said that the earth was nearing a "tipping point" and we would have runaway warming if we didn't strictly curtail our activities. All the fancy charts are based on computer models and not actual data. Look at the actual data and we have not warmed in about 20 years.

Second - this little bombshell:

Global land use change responsible for a significant portion of global warming says study
From the EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE and the “Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. was right” department. I suspect a whole bunch of climate models that don’t take this into consideration, and think CO2 is the dominant climate driver, are going to need to be revised.

Land use change has warmed the Earth’s surface
Natural ecosystems play a crucial role in helping combat climate change, air pollution and soil erosion. A new study by a team of researchers from the Joint Research Centre, the European Commission’s science and knowledge service, sheds light on another, less well-known aspect of how these ecosystems, and forests in particular, can protect our planet against global warming.

The research team used satellite data to analyse changes in global vegetation cover from 2000 to 2015 and link these to changes in the surface energy balance. Modifying the vegetation cover alters the surface properties – such as the amount of heat dissipated by water evaporation and the level of radiation reflected back into space – which has a knock-on effect on local surface temperature. Their analysis reveals how recent land cover changes have ultimately made the planet warmer.

“We knew that forests have a role in regulating surface temperatures and that deforestation affects the climate, but this is the first global data-driven assessment that has enabled us to systematically map the biophysical mechanisms behind these processes”, explains Gregory Duveiller, lead author of the study.

I bet that land use is not even considered in most of the models. Talk about not having a good grasp of what is actually happening out there. The full paper can be read online here: The mark of vegetation change on Earth’s surface energy balance

And it begins - Global Warming Cooling

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I have always held that the sun is the chief contributor to our overall climate and that we are coming out of a time of increased solar activity and entering a long phase of minimal solar output. Events like this are the basis for the various climactic minima we have had throughout history - little ice ages. People holding ice fairs on the frozen river Thames in London. Now, we have this report from the University of California - San Diego:

Reduced Energy from the Sun Might Occur by Mid-Century. Now Scientists Know by How Much
The Sun might emit less radiation by mid-century, giving planet Earth a chance to warm a bit more slowly but not halt the trend of human-induced climate change.

The cooldown would be the result of what scientists call a grand minimum, a periodic event during which the Sun’s magnetism diminishes, sunspots form infrequently, and less ultraviolet radiation makes it to the surface of the planet. Scientists believe that the event is triggered at irregular intervals by random fluctuations related to the Sun’s magnetic field.

Scientists have used reconstructions based on geological and historical data to attribute a cold period in Europe in the mid-17th Century to such an event, named the “Maunder Minimum.” Temperatures were low enough to freeze the Thames River on a regular basis and freeze the Baltic Sea to such an extent that a Swedish army was able to invade Denmark in 1658 on foot by marching across the sea ice.

A team of scientists led by research physicist Dan Lubin at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego has created for the first time an estimate of how much dimmer the Sun should be when the next minimum takes place.

There is a well-known 11-year cycle in which the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation peaks and declines as a result of sunspot activity. During a grand minimum, Lubin estimates that ultraviolet radiation diminishes an additional seven percent beyond the lowest point of that cycle. His team’s study, “Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs,” appears in the publication Astrophysical Journal Letters and was funded by the state of California.

Our sun has been very very quiet for the last couple of years. More people die from cold than from heat.

About that sinking island - Tuvalu

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The island of Tuvalu in Micronesia is often held up as the poster child for global warming - after all, the sea level is rising because of it and the island is getting smaller and smaller. We all know this - it fits the narrative right?
Not so much - from Phys Org:

'Sinking' Pacific nation is getting bigger: study
The Pacific nation of Tuvalu—long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels—is actually growing in size, new research shows.

A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu's nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.

It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu's total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.

Co-author Paul Kench said the research, published Friday in the journal Nature Communications, challenged the assumption that low-lying island nations would be swamped as the sea rose.

"We tend to think of Pacific atolls as static landforms that will simply be inundated as sea levels rise, but there is growing evidence these islands are geologically dynamic and are constantly changing," he said.

"The study findings may seem counter-intuitive, given that (the) sea level has been rising in the region over the past half century, but the dominant mode of change over that time on Tuvalu has been expansion, not erosion."

These islands are made out of coral - spongy porous coral. Of course they are going to grow and shrink. To blame global warming for this natural dynamic behavior is pure misdirection at best and outright obfuscation at the worst.

Some rain in the forecast

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While the East Coast is gearing up to be hammered, we are looking forward to our own problems - National Weather Service issued at 511PM today:

Hydrologic Outlook
A wet and mild air mass is anticipated to develop this weekend, resulting in snow levels rising above 5500 feet and periods of heavy rain. Strong southwest winds will result in the heaviest rains falling on the southwest-facing slopes of the Olympics and Cascades. At this time, total rainfall amounts in the mountains are anticipated to be in the 7 to 12 inch range on the Olympics and the 4 to 8 inch range in the Cascades. The lowlands could pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain during the same period. This amount of rain on top of what has already fallen, and what is expected the next couple of days, could lead to flooding on many rivers as well as cause urban and/or small stream flooding.

In addition to the potential for flooding, the landslide threat will continue to increase. Periods of heavy rain this weekend on top of nearly saturated soils would serve to significantly increase the threat of landslides. 

The location, timing, and actual rainfall amounts were still uncertain at this time. However, it does appear that a period of significant rainfall will occur this weekend.

Springtime flooding - not unexpected here.

Looks like those on the Eastern seabord are about to get slamed with another blast of cold temperatures and snowstorms. From Anthony:

Arctic poised to unleash another massive cold outbreak for Eastern US
Paul Dorian sends word that there’s a change brewing in the Arctic that may result in a massive and extended cold outbreak for the Northern hemisphere, much like what we saw in late December and early January when record breaking cold swamped the eastern USA. He writes:

Overview
We are now experiencing warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern US and there will be mild spells right into the first week of February, but the signs are increasing for a return to a cold pattern next month and it may very well last for an extended period of time. The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics and it will be transitioning into “phases” during the month of February that are conducive to colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US. In addition, stratospheric warming will unfold over the next week or so in the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere and this can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately results in colder-than-normal weather for the eastern US. There are other signals as well that support the notion of a return to cold in the eastern US and it very well could stick around for awhile.

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). The MJO not only has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of precipitation, surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation in the tropics, but also influences precipitation and temperature patterns across the globe. Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO over the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US.

Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO over the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US.

We could use some of that warming now - we are looking at a very quiet sun so not as much heat. Is this what we have to look forward to?

The cost of going green

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Germany is discovering what it costs to virtue signal, turn off their nuclear reactors and "go green" - from Die Welt running through Google Translate:

Climate protection costs us 2,300,000,000,000 euros
A chancellor minister Peter Altmaier predicted years ago that the costs of the German energy transition could reach a trillion euros , he only earned unbelief, scorn and ridicule. Now it's time to rehabilitate Altmaier. Because the trillion number - a one with twelve zeros - is back, scientifically proven and greater than ever before.

The Federation of German Industries (BDI) has let about 200 experts for one year. 68 associations fed numbers. Scientists, entrepreneurs and trade unionists discussed all imaginable future scenarios of energy supply in more than 40 workshops.

Summarized and analyzed by the institutes Prognos and Boston Consulting Group, the result is now available in the form of a 300-page study entitled "Klimapfade für Deutschland". Accordingly, Germany will have to invest around 1.5 trillion euros over the next 30 years to reduce CO2 emissions by 80 percent as planned.

But this is just the minimum goal. In fact, it gets even more expensive. Because Germany had promised in writing in the context of the World Climate Agreement of Paris, even to aim for a CO2 saving of 95 percent by the year 2050. According to the BDI study, this goal of an almost complete decarbonization of society requires as much as 2.3 trillion euros in additional investment.

And the impact on the German economy:

In fact, most of the carbon-saving measures initially produce economic losers. "Four-fifths of the necessary measures to achieve the 80-percent climate target are associated with direct abatement costs," warns Kempf: "That means: These measures do not pay off in the view of the respective decision maker - whether industrial companies, homeowners or private consumers."

Somebody has to pay the billions, too. Many homeowners, oil heating owners and motorists are thus inevitably asked to pay for climate protection requirements, without them having an immediate economic advantage.

In order to gain acceptance, incentivize and avoid social imbalances, large sums of money must be used for compensation. The trillion decarbonisation program is also a never before seen fiscal redistribution program.

The government is paid off to support this foolishness and a few plutocrats will get even more wealthy and the cost of this is borne by the average German citizen. All for his benefit of course. The original article is here: Klimaschutz kostet uns 2.300.000.000.000 Euro

About that cold weather

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It's not just the snowfall in Switzerland - from FOX News:

Brand-new US Navy warship trapped in Canada amid cold and ice
A brand-new U.S. Navy warship has not moved from Montreal since Christmas Eve and will spend the winter stuck in Canada due to cold and ice.

The USS Little Rock – unveiled in a ceremony on Dec. 16 in Buffalo, New York and attended by nearly 9,000 people – has not moved far since due to adverse weather conditions that kept the warship trapped at bay in Canada, the Toronto Star reported.

A bit more:

The U.S. Navy spokeswoman told The Star the ship will remain inactive in Montreal and will not move towards its home port in Mayport, Fla. until weather conditions improve.

“The temperatures in Montreal and throughout the transit area have been colder than normal, and included near-record low temperatures, which created significant and historical conditions in the late December, early January time frame,” Lt.-Cmdr. Courtney Hillson told the newspaper.

I pity the sailors stationed on board. They were expecting to be posted in Florida. Spending the winter locked in ice does not sound like fun...

Comedy gold - global warming

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I wonder if Al Gore is attending this - from The New York Times:

At Davos, 6 Feet of Snow Brings Luxury Shuttles to a Crawl
It may be tempting fate to try to gather 60 heads of state and hundreds of global business leaders in the dead of winter in a Swiss mountain valley. This year, the World Economic Forum’s luck seems to have run out.

Fat, damp snowflakes have been tumbling down for the past six days, burying the town in six feet of snow, three feet of it in the last two days alone. Snow was still falling fast on Monday night, and the steep, pine-dotted slopes were so heavily laden that some neighborhoods here in Davos had to be evacuated for fear of avalanches.

Head-high snow drifts quickly piled up along the roads, leaving no place for street plows to push more snow. Sidewalks completely disappeared. Pedestrians slipped and slid in traffic between huge trucks and luxury minivans on streets carpeted with compacted ice several inches thick.

and this bit of fun:

In perhaps the most harrowing indignity for the plutocrats who have made the World Economic Forum their favorite winter meeting ground, even the town’s helicopter pad was closed because of the snowstorm. By early afternoon, a quarter-mile trip in one of the ubiquitous black luxury minivans with plush leather seats that shuttle participants around the town took nearly an hour.

Linda P. Fried, the dean of Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, allowed three hours at midday on Monday to travel from her hotel to the uncrowded registration center nearby and then a few blocks to the conference. But because of the gridlock, she was a half-hour late to give her speech. The topic had been the health risks that arise from climate change.

health risks that arise from climate change - indeed. Our sun is very very quiet with no sign of activity - this is the same condition as was when Earth went through the little ice age and Maunder Minimum. We could be looking at a 30-60 year period of extended cooling.

Well crap - RIP John Coleman

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From Anthony:

Forecaster, father, and friend of WUWT, John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel, passes away
It is with great sadness that I announce this. John Coleman was a true hero of mine, and a great friend. He made gigantic contributions to television, to weather forecasting, and even to the National Weather Service who changed and upgraded many of their methods to accommodate the visionary ideas he had in founding the Weather Channel.

In 1983, Coleman won the American Meteorological Society award for Outstanding Service by a Broadcast Meteorologist. The organization credited Coleman for “his pioneering efforts in establishing a national cable weather channel,” according to the AMS website.

I last saw John Coleman a couple of months ago in Chicago at a gathering of TV meteorologists and climate skeptics. He was as jovial and as witty as ever.

To say “he will be missed”, is an understatement.

Dr. Coleman was one of the giants of meteorology. He was quite the global warming skeptic as anyone who actually looks at what is happening as opposed to looking at the output of some computer model will be. Real data trumps computer models all of the time.

Last month's bomb cyclone

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The sudden freeze on the East coast was not a unique phenomon. I was living in Boston when the Blizzard of 1978 hit. More here. The Northeast also suffered one in 1993 - the Storm of the Century.

There is an interesting set of photographs at the Hampton Roads Naval Museum:

One Century Ago: What Cold Really Looks Like
Local headlines recently proclaimed that the Hampton Roads area is experiencing perhaps the coldest new year it has experienced in a century. Thousands of "nonessential" workers at military bases across the Hampton Roads Region are off for the second day in a row (myself included, although I'm still on deadline for this blog post and other projects). Many of them are busily documenting the snowdrifts and other winter wonders deposited by the recent "bomb cyclone" that made it all possible. But what did the winter of a century ago look like to the Sailors and other photographers who were working then?

The Hampton Roads Naval Museum recently acquired photographs taken by a young gunner's mate floating on the York River that show just how cold it got one century ago. Compared to the arctic blast of January 1918, which froze battleships into place off Yorktown and made the majority of the Chesapeake region practically impassible, the so-called "bomb cyclone" that swept through the area this week was a mere inconvenience.

Thanks to a young Sailor named Ernest A. Washburn, who was serving aboard USS Rhode Island (BB 17), we now have a better idea what the York looked like during that epic cold snap.

There are five photos at the site - two taken by Mr. Washburn and three taken by other photographers of the same weather event.

20180114-ice-ships.jpg

Two photographs taken from USS Rhode Island (BB 17) have been combined to show the monitor Tallahassee (BM 9),
which served during the war as a submarine tender, and the battleship Texas (BB 35), frozen in
at the location near Yorktown, Virginia, known as "Base 2" in January 1918.
E.A. Washburn Collection, Hampton Roads Naval Museum

20180114-MonticelloHotel.jpg

Longtime Norfolk photographer Harry C. Mann recorded the aftermath of the Monticello Hotel fire, after which a
fire engine remained frozen in place. At far left, merchants can be seen removing whatever
wares they can salvage. (Library of Virginia Digital Collections)

Those people who claim that us puny humans are changing the earth's climate are nuts. Pure and simple nuts - they have a political agenda that they are driving and they are using this pseudoscience to leverage their agenda because it will not stand on its own merits.

Got another front moving through - this time, it's freezing rainfall. From Watts Up With That:

Forecasters: Another major winter storm to pound US East coast -ETA Saturday
System likely to produce a layer cake from hell frozen over.

Dr. Ryan Maue of weather.us has been watching the development of forecasts for a new major winter storm that is likely to pound the U.S. East Coast and Northeast/New England States Friday and Saturday. He writes:

Tropical moisture feed ahead of developing major winter storm will provide huge rainfall atop any frozen ground in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast into Saturday. Bad!

“Bad” in this case may equate to blizzard like conditions with heavy rain over frozen ground and snow, making for a real mess.

The start of an extended period of cold weather? Our sun is very quiet.

From Forbes Magazine:

Exxon Prepares To Sue California Cities, Says They Contradict Themselves On Climate Change
Some government officials in California are hypocrites pushing a political agenda that involves using private lawyers to sue and demonize ExxonMobil, the company is now arguing in a Texas state court.

On Jan. 8, Exxon took the first step towards suing those who orchestrated climate change lawsuits in California by asking the Tarrant County District Court to allow it to question an assortment of government officials and a Hagens Berman lawyer. The company says those local officials are talking out of both sides of their mouths - blaming Exxon for an impending flooding disaster while not disclosing that alleged threat to possible investors in their bond offerings.

In 2017, the counties of Marin, Santa Cruz and San Mateo and the cities of San Francisco, Oakland, Santa Cruz and Imperial Beach filed suit against dozens of energy companies, including Exxon and 17 other Texas-based businesses, over climate change. The company has previously been targeted by the attorneys general of Massachusetts and New York.


“It is reasonable to infer that the municipalities brought these lawsuits not because of a bona fide belief in any tortious conduct by the defendants or actual damage to their jurisdictions, but instead to coerce ExxonMobil and others operating in the Texas energy sector to adopt policies aligned with those favored by local politicians in California,” attorneys for the company wrote.

In doing so, they must have lied to potential investors in their respective bond offerings, the company claims.

One example:

San Mateo County’s complaint says it is “particularly vulnerable to sea level rise” and that there is a 93% chance the county experiences a “devastating” flood before 2050. However, bond offerings in 2014 and 2016 noted that the county “is unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur"

A long and fun read. Discovery will be interesting to say the least...

Mount Washington

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When I was living in Boston, I loved hearing about Mount Washington. It has some of the worst weather in the USA.

From the Boston Globe:

Mount Washington is among the coldest places on the planet — and beyond
Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire isn’t just cold — at -36 degrees with a windchill of 94 below, it’s tied for the second coldest place on Earth, according to a tweet from the observatory. In fact, according to the latest data available from the Curiosity rover on Mars, Mount Washington feels colder than the surface of our celestial neighbor, which was measured at -78 degrees.

As of Saturday morning, the wind was gusting at over 100 miles per hour at the summit, which is 6,288 feet above sea level, according to the observatory’s website.

“We should end up being the coldest location tonight in the Lower 48,” Mike Carmon, senior meteorologist at the Mount Washington Observatory, told the New York Times. “We basically just start saying it’s stupid cold outside.”

If you’re wondering what place on Earth could possibly be colder than Mount Washington, it’s Eureka, Nunavut, at -40 degrees. But with winds of only 2 miles per hour, Eureka comes in at a balmy windchill of -50 degrees.

To get an idea of Mt. Washington weather, here is a short film shot in 1990 showing a typical morning:

Climate Change

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There is a big difference between the output from computer models and real data recorded in the field. Excellent article on global temperature and its lack of rise. From CFact:

No CO2 warming for the last 40 years?
It is very cold here in the Eastern US and the President is joking about the lack of global warming. More interesting by far is the fact that there appears to have been no CO2 induced warming in the last 40 years, which is as far back as the satellite measurements go.

That this incredible fact has gone unnoticed is due mostly to the scientific community’s fixation on the warming shown by the surface temperature statistical models. But as explained here, these complex computer models are completely unreliable.

Also, the satellite measurements do show some global warming, which people have mistakenly assumed somehow supports the hypothesis of human caused, CO2 induced warming. Careful inspection shows that this assumption is false. There is in fact no evidence of CO2 warming in the entire satellite record.

To see this one must look at the satellite record in detail. To understand this, bear in mind that science is all about the specific details of an observation. These details can overthrow grand theories that are widely accepted.

For example, the negative result of the Michelson-Morley experiment led to the revolutionary special theory of relativity. When it comes to global warming, the 40 year satellite measurements provide a strong negative result for the CO2 warming hypothesis. The CO2 warming just is not there.

Like I said before, when this foolishness blows over, it will be interesting to see just how much money was wasted.

They warned us and now? Guess what...

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Glad I do not live on the East Coast any more - from The Daily Caller:

New England Was Warned ‘Pipeline Constraints’ Could Cause Problems This Winter. Now It’s Happening
While New England’s power grid operator predicted it would have enough energy supplies to meet demand this winter, it admitted there could be problems if record-low temperatures set in.

“While New England has adequate capacity resources to meet projected demand, a continuing concern involves the availability of fuel for those power plants to generate electricity when needed,” grid operator ISO New England reported in November.

“During extremely cold weather, natural gas pipeline constraints limit the availability of fuel for natural-gas-fired power plants,” the grid operator noted.

That’s exactly what is happening right now.

And a bit more:

New England’s current energy woes are the result of years of state and federal policies aimed at closing coal and oil-fired power plants, largely as part of the region’s effort to fight global warming.

Some day, once this whole anthropogenic global warming batshit blows over and people come to their senses, I would love for someone to compile an account of just how much money was wasted on this foolish rat-hole. How many lives were lost. There has been zero measurable warming in the last 20 years. Now, a lot of people are worrying that we might be entering into an extended period of cooling.

Bombogenesis in action

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Definition: bombogenesis
What is happening: The Washington Post

‘Bomb cyclone’ blasting East Coast before polar vortex uncorks tremendous cold late this week
Unforgiving cold has punished the eastern United States for the past 10 days. But the most severe winter weather yet will assault the area Wednesday night into the weekend.

First, a monster ocean storm is taking shape, which pasted parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina with rare ice and snow early Wednesday. By Thursday, the exploding storm will, in many ways, resemble a winter hurricane, battering easternmost New England with potentially damaging winds in addition to blinding snow. Blizzard warnings have been issued for the Virginia Tidewater region up the coast to eastern Maine, including Ocean City, Md., Atlantic City, eastern Long Island, Boston, and Portland.

“This rapidly intensifying East Coast storm will produce strong, damaging winds — possibly resulting in downed trees, power outages and coastal flooding,” the National Weather Service tweeted Wednesday.

Forecasters are expecting the storm to become a “bomb cyclone” because its pressure is predicted to fall so fast, an indicator of explosive strengthening. The storm could rank as the most intense over the waters east of New England in decades at this time of year.

Little ice age anyone? All the indicators are there starting with a very quiet sun.

Just in time for skiing - a drought

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The weather can be perverse at times. From Cliff Mass:

The Upcoming December "Drought" in the Northwest
A stunning transition is going to happen on Sunday.

Precipitation over the Northwest will end.

And we might not see another drop for over a week. Maybe more. An unusual occurrence in December. You will see sun....but as we will note there is a threat: low clouds and fog.

Let's take a look at the forecast upper level (500 hPa) maps this week from the NOAA GFS model...and be prepared to have your jaw drop!

As the podiatrist once said: This is a wail of toe 

Just what we need: gorgeous crisp clear days and no fresh powder for the prime skiing season. At least it should clear up in time for Christmas. That high-pressure ridge will bring some hard cold to the midwest.

From the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)

Competitive Enterprise Institute Sues State Department Again Over Paris Climate Agreement Records
Today the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) filed its second lawsuit against the State Department to obtain illegally withheld documents related to the 2015 Paris climate agreement. In October 2017, CEI submitted a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for emails of two State Department officers involved in the Obama administration’s maneuvering to circumvent the Senate in order to join the Paris agreement, Trigg Talley and Alexandra Costello.

Trigg Talley and Alexandra Costello were both members of the State Department when the decision was made to avoid characterizing the Paris agreement as a treaty. Talley is presently in Bonn at the Paris treaty talks as Director of the Office of Global Change at State Department. Costello was a State Department Capitol Hill liaison during the Obama administration tasked with managing relations between the Senate and the administration.

The Obama administration cut the Senate out of the treaty process in order to join the Paris agreement. Documents obtained under a previous FOIA production show Costello correspondence with a lawyer for Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker. In response to an August 2014 New York Times report about Obama’s plan to circumvent the Senate, the lawyer said this news “indicate[s] a disturbing contempt for the Senate’s constitutional rights and responsibilities.” Yet, Chairman Corker never publicly opposed Obama’s circumvention of the Senate. CEI seeks to learn just why this silence occurred.

The deep-state is being drained step by step. I hope that they are successful in their suit. The Obama administration directly contradicted the US Constitution by making the Paris Agreement a Treaty - bypassing the mandatory Senate approval. Unwinding Obama's legacy step by step.

About that global warming

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Here is the raw data from the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) - these stations have been in place for 13 years so this is the full dataset:

uscrn-graph.jpg

Notice the warming? Me neither.

Pineapple express due on Saturday

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Get ready - from Seattle's Cliff Mass:

5000 Mile Atmospheric River Will Hit the Northwest on Saturday: Heavy Rain in the Offering
The atmosphere is kind of funny when it comes to moisture. Rather than move water vapor out of the tropics in wide currents, the moisture tend to move in relatively narrow atmospheric rivers.

For us in the Pacific Northwest, the atmospheric rivers that reach our shores often come from the southwest, starting somewhere near Hawaii (see graphic of water vapor content summed up in the vertical). Thus, they are often called a pineapple express.

But sometimes, a very different configuration occurs, with moisture extending northward in the western Pacific, then heading nearly due east into our region.  Traversing an amazing distance of over 5000 miles.  Let's call this the Midway Express.  And one of them will reach us on Saturday.

Forecast is for up to ten inches with high winds - here we go again. More power failures and potential for earth movement.

Here we go again - Nate

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From Florida's Miami Herald:

Tropical Storm Nate, expected later today, to hit Gulf Coast as a hurricane
A tropical depression churning across the southern Caribbean could become Tropical Storm Nate by late Wednesday, on track to hit the Gulf Coast, and possibly Florida, as a hurricane over the weekend.

In their latest advisory, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the storm is moving over warm waters and encountering light wind shear that could allow quick intensification. It’s possible sustained winds could reach 85 mph in three days, making it a Category 1 storm as it approaches the Gulf coast on Saturday. Wednesday evening forecasters upped their intensity forecast from earlier in the day, but said there’s still a chance the storm could weaken as it crosses Central America and the Yucatan.

Luck of the draw - we have had a wonderful twelve year hiatus from damaging hurricanes but chance is chance. This years events are statistics and not global warming.

It's baaaack!!!

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Looks like La Niña is back for Winter - cold and snowy weather ahead:

20171004-enso.jpg

From Anthony:

Cooler Global Temperatures Ahead: Indications are that La Niña is returning
Earlier this year, there were signs that a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could continue through the fall and even into the upcoming winter season, but there is now substantial agreement amongst numerous computer forecast models that La Nina conditions are likely to become established over the next couple of months and current observations back this notion. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal SSTs.  The formation of La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely have important ramifications around the world including significant impacts on the upcoming winter season, next summer’s tropical season, and global temperatures.

Great for the ski season.

I have visited there several times and always really liked it. The Old Town of San Juan is gorgeous and out in the countryside, the people are areally open and friendly. I have thought from time to time that it might be a nice place to retire to - much cheaper to live and the majority of people speak English.

And then there is this - from Dr. Jeff Masters writing at the Weather Undergound:

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico
After making landfall in southeast Puerto Rico near 6:15 am Wednesday as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, Hurricane Maria finished a devastating pummeling of the island near 1:30 pm, when its eye emerged over the ocean off the northwest coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that Maria’s 70-mile traverse of Puerto Rico had knocked the top winds of the storm down to 110 mph by 5 pm Wednesday, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane.

The entire island is without electrical power (3.4 million people) - they had one hurricane (San Felipe Segundo in 1928) that exceeded Maria's strength and violence but the island had not been built up as much back then.

Space has an article on the Arecibo Observatory - it has been sheltered from much of the wind and it is far enough above sea level that the storm surges have no effect but there is still the matter of the 25+ inches of rainfall. The crew was planning to return to the site today to begin evaluations. No news as yet.

A crack in the facade - Global Warming

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It is not happening fast enough to match the computer models. From the UK Independent:

Global warming may be occurring more slowly than previously thought, study suggests
Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.

The Earth warmed more slowly than the models forecast, meaning the planet has a slightly better chance of meeting the goals set out in the Paris climate agreement, including limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists said previous models may have been “on the hot side”.

The study, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, does not play down the threat which climate change has to the environment, and maintains that major reductions in emissions must be attained.

But the findings indicate the danger may not be as acute as was previously thought.

All of the global warming "research" has been based on the outcomes of various computer models. None of these are checked with archived data. They cannot hindcast - if you take historical data and feed it into these models, they will not output anything that matches reality. The output of these models do not agree with the measured data so it is the data that is continually being "adjusted"

Time to pull the plug on this scam before any more people get hurt with high fuel costs and stupid political decisions.

Very good decision for the EPA

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Nice to see this being decided once and for all - from the Washington Examiner:

EPA evaluating 'red teams' to challenge climate science despite hurricanes
The Trump administration is looking to create a "red team" to challenge the accepted science on climate change and the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on the Earth's temperature, but there is no timeline on when that exercise will occur even though it is "very important," according to Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt.

The EPA administrator sat down with the Washington Examiner for an interview that included discussion of the proposed red team-blue team process that he says will open up a dialogue over the science behind global warming to see what is true and what is not.

"The red team-blue team is still being evaluated," Pruitt said. "I think it's very, very important. I think the American people deserve an open, honest dialogue about what do we know, what don't we know with respect to CO2 and its impact."

The Trump administration has been criticized in recent weeks by environmentalists and others for ignoring the effects of manmade global warming in the wake of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Although climate scientists are careful not to equate weather with global warming, they do say that the increased intensity of the storms is a result of a warmer planet.

But the Trump administration feels a need to test that. The red team/blue team process Pruitt wants to set up has been widely used by the military to test assumptions when it comes to an enemy's wartime capability. A red team would challenge the assumptions of the blue team.

Good news indeed - the science is NOT settled - those who say it is are putting forth a political narrative and not actual science. The use of Red Teams has an historical precedent and has been shown to be very effective - this is a perfect venue for a red team.

Sadly true - Hurricane Irma

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20170906-irma.jpg

Hurricane Irma from the ISS

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Jaw-droppingly beautiful view of Hurricane Irma from the International Space Station. View in full screen. No audio.

I would not mind having that for my office window for a few months! Wonder if they have a geezers in space program?

Also, the founder of The Weather Channel is John Coleman - a professional meterologist and he is never one to mince words. He had this to say about Irma's projected path (from Watts Up With That):

Take a trip west and live. It you stay put your ssn on your arm with a sharpie.

Mic drop! It will be interesting to see how Sir Richard Branson fares - from CNN:

Richard Branson to ride out Hurricane Irma in wine cellar

Talk about a first-world problem...

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