Recently in Climate Category

Reproducibility in Science

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Great editorial in Investor's Business Daily:

Is Global Warming Science Just A Fraud?
Climate Change: We're often told by advocates of climate change that the "science is settled." But in fact, "science" itself is in a deep crisis over making claims it can't back up, especially about climate.

As BBC News Science Correspondent Tom Feilden noted last week, "Science is facing a 'reproducibility crisis' where more than two-thirds of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, research suggests." This isn't just his journalistic opinion, but the conclusion of the University of Virginia's Center for Open Science, which estimates that roughly 70% of all studies can't be reproduced.

And this includes the field of climate change, by the way. It's a disaster. Being able to reproduce others' experiments or findings from models is at the very heart of science. Yet, radical climate change advocates would have us spend 2% of global GDP, or roughly $1.5 trillion a year, to forestall a minuscule amount of anticipated warming based on dubious modeling and experiments.

Meanwhile, the federal government spends literally billions of dollars a year on climate change, with virtually none of the money funding scientists who doubt the climate change threat. There is no serious debate. This is a problem for all of science.

And a ray of hope:

It's time for some science Glasnost. New EPA Director Scott Pruitt has called for an open debate on climate science, rather than the name-calling and outright dishonesty of the past. Real science has nothing to fear from more openness and discussion, but everything to fear from more politicized dishonesty.

Good - let us look at the actual measured data and not the output from some computer models. Let us take a look at all of the natural sources of greenhouse gasses instead of trying to cripple our economy by killing carbon dioxide - without which plant life would be impossible.

California flooding

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Things are bad down there - from San Jose's The Mercury News:

San Jose mayor: Clear ‘failure’ led to record flooding
A day after rescuers boated hundreds of people to safety during San Jose’s worst flooding in decades, city officials Wednesday let many of the 14,000 evacuated residents return home and blamed the sudden breach of Coyote Creek on bad information about its capacity.

The flooding followed a series of heavy rains that filled Anderson Reservoir to capacity. Downstream, Coyote Creek quickly swelled to four feet above flood level, cresting at 14.4 feet around 3 p.m. Tuesday and breaking a 95-year-old record of 12.8 feet set in 1922.

For many, the flooding came with no warning. Mayor Sam Liccardo acknowledged residents should not have first learned of the danger when rescuers arrived by boat to evacuate them. Hundreds remained displaced Wednesday, with the city and Red Cross offering two high schools that are closed for spring break as overnight shelters that drew about 275 people.

Officials have yet to begin assessing damage to the neighborhoods, where the city has already issued health warnings about the dangerously polluted floodwaters, and it may be weeks before life is back to normal for residents in some of the most badly damaged homes.

Three places I would never live - adjacent to any large body of water, especially the coast of Oregon or Washington, near a potential landslide or on a flood plain. These areas may have spectacular scenery but the danger is just too great.

From a magazine that used to be really good - Scientific American:

California Dam Crisis Could Have Been Averted
By now we have all seen the spectacular images of volumes of water crashing down the Oroville Dam spillway in California and blasting upward into the air as they hit an enormous crater in the spillway floor, flooding down the adjacent hillside, threatening people in towns below. Those images reveal a big mistake: failure to update infrastructure to defend against climate change.

The menacing floodwaters last week forced the emergency evacuation of 188,000 residents. Yet the impending disaster came as no surprise to officials in Butte and Plumas counties. The rural counties, which surround Lake Oroville, had challenged the state’s environmental review of dam operations in a 2008 lawsuit, arguing the state "recklessly failed" to properly account for climate change in its long-term dam management plan.

The dam was built in the 1960s when temperatures were cooler and more precipitation was stored in a greater snowpack in the mountains of the Feather River watershed, which drains into Lake Oroville. Today warming temperatures are bringing more rain as well as melting the Sierra Nevada snowpack earlier in the spring. As the counties’ attorneys predicted, among the results is a rush of downhill water much faster than in the past. “We anticipated that this crisis might come about,” says Tony Rossmann, special counsel to Butte County.

So many logical flaws, so little time.

Warm weather does not necessarily bring more rain - warm air holds more water by volume than cool air so if it is warm, there is less chance of rainfall. The real cause was lack of maintenance and it looks like the concrete spillway was not built well to begin with. The dam was built in the 1960's when it was cooler - yes, so cool that the climate scientists were yammering about global cooling - the next ice age. Here is the rainfall data for Los Angeles dating back to 1877 - see for yourself. There are ten years or so of minimal rainfall and then a year or two of well above average. This is called climate and there is nothing unusual in this pattern - it is normal for the Los Angeles area.

From the National Weather Service:

201 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect until 10 PM PST this evening.

    • SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 to 11 inches are likely through this evening.
    • SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...The volcanoes will receive the highest amounts. Less will fall in the highway passes.
    • TIMING...Most snow will fall this afternoon and evening.
    • MAIN IMPACT...Travel will be affected.

From Associated Press:

FLOOD FEARS RENEWED AS ANOTHER STORM AIMS FOR CALIFORNIA
Residents returning to homes damaged by flooding should be prepared to evacuate again as yet another powerful Pacific storm takes aim at Northern California, officials warned Sunday.

The San Joaquin River was reaching flood stage, and residents of Manteca were told to be ready to evacuate in case it hit dangerous levels.

Meanwhile, the water level was decreasing at Lake Oroville dam, where a damaged spillway had raised major flood concerns.

Water was also receding in the farm community of Maxwell, where dozens of people sought higher ground after creeks topped their banks and inundated houses on Friday, said Colusa County Assistant Sheriff Jim Saso said.

Nothing unusual - a couple years of drought and then whammo - this site has rainfall data for Los Angeles dating back to 1877

If I was into panning for gold, I bet that now would be an excellent time to visit some streams - a lot of the streambeds have been washed over and new gold exposed.

After the deluge - California

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California is cleaning up after the monster storm - from the Los Angeles Times:

Cleanup begins after powerful storm slams Southern California
Cleanup was beginning across Southern California on Saturday after a storm that forecasters billed as the most powerful in years caused flooding on multiple freeways, triggered dramatic mudslides and downed hundreds of trees and power lines.

The storm was moving out Saturday morning after dumping record rain in some areas and leaving havoc in its wake.

Thousands of Los Angeles County residents remained without power early Saturday, while road crews scrambled to repair sinkholes throughout the area, including one in Studio City that swallowed two vehicles Friday night. No one was injured in the incident.

Four fatalities known so far. The Times is also maintaining a Live Updates page with streaming news reports.

Our new Science Advisor

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Not definite yet but he sounds great - from Eric Worral writing at Anthony's:

William Happer on Climate Science: “They’re glassy-eyed and they chant”
Professor William Happer, who has been tipped as front runner to replace John Holdren as the Whitehouse Science Advisor, has described climate scientists as a glassy eyed cult.

Trump’s likely science adviser calls climate scientists ‘glassy-eyed cult’

William Happer, frontrunner for job of providing mainstream scientific opinion to officials, backs crackdown on federal scientists’ freedom to speak out

The man tipped as frontrunner for the role of science adviser to Donald Trump has described climate scientists as “a glassy-eyed cult” in the throes of a form of collective madness.

William Happer, an eminent physicist at Princeton University, met Trump last month to discuss the post and says that if he were offered the job he would take it. Happer is highly regarded in the academic community, but many would view his appointment as a further blow to the prospects of concerted international action on climate change.

“There’s a whole area of climate so-called science that is really more like a cult,” Happer told the Guardian. “It’s like Hare Krishna or something like that. They’re glassy-eyed and they chant. It will potentially harm the image of all science.”

A bit harsh to the Krishnas but otherwise spot on.

Oroville - a few updates

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Dodged the bullet - rainfall

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The pineapple express I was looking at went further to the South than was initially forecast. We were forecast to have three to seven inches of rain but only had a little over 0.4"

From The Seattle Times:

More rain on way, as Seattle may be headed to wet-weather record
Seattle has seen more than three times the normal amount of rain for February — and the month is only half over.

A big, juicy air mass stretching to Hawaii has Seattle in for a soaking, with more rain on the way.

Normal rainfall through Tuesday would be 1.82 inches, but Seattle has soaked up 5.71 inches through Tuesday, with even more rain pouring down overnight and Wednesday, said Dustin Guy, of the National Weather Service in Seattle.

I have not checked conditions in California - will do so in a few minutes. The dogs are giving me the stink-eye...

Off for coffee and working at home today

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The atmospheric river seems to have turned South today - we have had some rain but only 0.2" accumulation so far - not the several inches that were forecast. Still, the signature curve is very much that of a pineapple express - the discharge in cu feet per second of our local river:

20170215-nooksack.png

This is indicating 17K cu ft/second - the Oroville dam is having to discharge at 100,000 cubic feet per second - 5.8 times as much water and our local river is a big one. A lot of water moving there.

Driveway is still slick as snot - there was a lot of ice buildup. Still have to park the truck at the head and commute with Buttercup my tractor.

Local forecast

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Yep - it is going to get wet - from the National Weather Service:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1055 AM PST Tue Feb 14 2017

...Flooding Possible Wednesday to Thursday for Rivers Flowing Off
of the North Cascades...

Rivers flowing off of the North Cascades are expected to rise
starting early Wednesday morning as a storm system brings heavy
rain to western Washington beginning Tuesday evening. With snow
levels at 7000 - 9000 feet, the storm is expected to produce 3 to
7 inches of rain over the North Cascades. If this amount of rain
falls, rises on the rivers in northwest Washington will have the
possibility of exceeding flood stage but at this time are expected
to stay below.

Say hello to our little buddy

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We have lived through the snowpocalypse, now it is rain:

20170214-pineapple.jpg

Aimed more at California and Oregon than here but who knows - scheduled to hit sometime tomorrow (Wednesday) From Cliff Mass:

The West Coast Will Face An Extraordinarily Wet Period
Northern California is experiencing its wettest winter on record, with reservoirs full, the ground saturated, and many of the rivers at or near flood stage.

Oroville Dam, northeast of Sacramento, is on the brink of failure and downstream residents have been warned to evacuate. Water is being released through the emergency spillway in a desperate attempt to save the dam.

During the past two weeks, immense amounts of precipitation has fallen over the West Coast (see image), with some locations in the Sierra and coastal mountains getting more than 20 inches of water.

A bit more:

Folks, it is not over yet. Although a ridge of high pressure temporarily has dried things out the last few days, the fire hose of rain will be returning on Wednesday.

Here is the forecast precipitation total for the next 9-days from the U.S. GFS model. Nearly all of the Cascades, Sierras, and coastal mountains will get 5-10 inches of additional precipitation. This includes the last hold-out from serious wetting, the mountains behind Santa Barbara.

And more to come.

Orroville Dam update

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A two-fer - first from San Jose, CA's The Mercury News:

Oroville Dam: Feds and state officials ignored warnings 12 years ago
More than a decade ago, federal and state officials and some of California’s largest water agencies rejected concerns that the massive earthen spillway at Oroville Dam — at risk of collapse Sunday night and prompting the evacuation of 185,000 people — could erode during heavy winter rains and cause a catastrophe.

Three environmental groups — the Friends of the River, the Sierra Club and the South Yuba Citizens League — filed a motion with the federal government on Oct. 17, 2005, as part of Oroville Dam’s relicensing process, urging federal officials to require that the dam’s emergency spillway be armored with concrete, rather than remain as an earthen hillside.

Much more at the site - it all boils down to politics and money. Over 3,000 comments - lots of good ones.

Second, from the Los Angeles Times:

Here's the nightmare scenario at Oroville Dam that officials are fighting to prevent
Any dam engineer would be terrified of this nightmare scenario — the possible collapse of a retaining wall in California’s second largest reservoir.

That’s the prospect officials faced when they ordered more than 100,000 people evacuated downstream of the nation’s tallest dam Sunday.

It occurred insidiously: a pocket of erosion that crept ever closer to a low concrete wall that was supposed to be the last, best defense against disaster.

The threatened concrete structure, called a weir, was designed as an emergency escape route of sorts for rapidly rising waters at swollen Lake Oroville. By allowing some water to spill over its shoulders, the concrete wall would relieve tremendous pressure building on Oroville Dam itself, which is located nearby.

And there is another big storm heading their way - expected to hit sometime this weekend.

From the ChicoER News:

Emergency spillway could fail; evacuations ordered
Evacuations were ordered Sunday afternoon after erosion raised fears the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam could fail.

An evacuation information center has been set up to answer questions: 530-872-5951.

The Department of Water Resources said about 3 p.m. Sunday a headcut appeared in the soil downhill from the emergency spillway, and appeared to be spreading upward toward the structure.

If the spillway structure were undercut by the enlarging hole, it could fail, and the water behind that barrier would come down the hill into the Diversion Pool and down the Feather River.

With that possibility, and “an abundance of caution,” Sheriff Kory Honea ordered the evacuation of downtown Oroville and other low-lying areas downstream. Yuba and Sutter counties followed suit.

The bridges across the Feather River between Marysville and Yuba City were closed.

The dams regular spillway was built 50 years ago and failed during normal operation. It will be some time until the actual cause is determined. The Oroville Dam is the tallest dam in the United States.

The ChicoER also published this damning editorial:

Editorial: Oroville Dam crisis a failure on many levels
History was made in Butte County this week, and it isn’t the good kind of history either.

A 50-year-old spillway broke in the middle on Tuesday next to Oroville Dam and the modern equivalent of hydraulic mining happened Saturday when water topped the north side of the dam face and down an emergency spillway.

To call it an emergency spillway is to vastly oversell it. It is not a structure. It is a ravine that until this week was filled with trees, rocks and dirt.

Once dam operators figured out that the lake’s inflow was more than the crumbling spillway would allow as an outflow, crews scrambled to clear a path for the water from the inevitable overflow.

Using rocks and cement, they tried to steer a path away from the damaged spillway.

The overflow started Saturday morning just after 8 a.m. By 11 a.m., the stream was large. With tributaries still running high from last week’s storms, the inflow to the lake was 84,000 cubic-feet per second. The spillway could only handle 55,000 cfs.

Getting to the point:

For the state, Lake Oroville is a source of cheap power and cheap water for people downstream. From Butte County’s point of view, it has been a draw on resources, from lost property taxes to money spent on public safety and infrastructure. For too long, our area has received the worst end of this deal.

The reservoir’s water and power have been a cash cow for the state and obviously the state didn’t reinvest on inspections, maintenance and contingency plans.

The DWR can argue all day that this was an unforeseen and unpreventable act of nature, but that has to be part of the lesson. When you have a spillway (and a dam) that’s a half-century old, you’d better pay attention to the maintenance.

Much more at the site - the state of California was making a lot of money from the electrical power generation and potable water sales but they were not reinvesting this revenue back into upgrades and maintenence. Now the butcher's bill has come due - the next six months or so will be interesting.

Here is a somewhat dystopian video:

More dam trouble - California

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Spillway actually, not the dam. From The Landslide Blog:

Oroville Dam: extraordinary erosion, and a crisis, on the spillway
The Oroville Dam in California is the tallest dam in the USA.  with a height of 230 m, this is an earthfill embankment dam built between 1961 and 1968 for the purposes of water supply, hydroelectric power generation and flood control.  After years of drought, California is suffering a series of huge rainstorms – so-called atmospheric rivers – that have rapidly raised the water level in the dam.  To allow flood control, the dam has been undergoing controlled discharges of water through the spillway.

On Tuesday, after such a release water, major damage was noted on the spillway, apparently caused by the failure of the concrete base and then erosion of the underlying substrate.

Over the next few days further discharges of water have been undertaken to test the spillway and to control the water level in the lake.

Unsurprisingly, the condition of the spillway has dramatically deteriorated:

20170210-oroville.jpg

The issue is that if they do not use the spillway, the water level could over-top the dam itself - something it was not designed for. San Francisco station KQED is following the story:

With Oroville Spillway Damage Spreading, Officials Prepare for Reservoir to Overflow
Update, 9:20 a.m. Friday: Two things have changed overnight at Oroville Dam and the giant reservoir behind it.

First: Inflow from the Feather River watershed into Lake Oroville, while still very high, has dropped from its peak levels Thursday.

Second: California Department of Water Resources managers followed through with a plan to ramp up releases down the dam’s wrecked spillway (for their rationale for doing that, see our earlier updates, below).

More at the site.

Quite the flooding in Nevada

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A dam breached and there was a lot of snow runoff - from Salt Lake City station KSL-5 TV:

Yikes - our own river is running about three times average volume but nowhere near flood stage - yet:

20170210-nooksack.png

Snowing like gangbusters for the last five of hours - NWS has Wintry Mix with temps down to 30°F, TWC has Ice to Rain with temps down to 28°F. I have 25.9°F outside right now.

Both are forecasting heavy rain with temps in the low to mid 40's - see how fast this melts the snow. Next couple of days are warmish too so the prognosis is good.

New England is expecting a taste of what we have been through - Boston is scheduled to get 15" of snow starting tomorrow.

Reheating some spaghetti for dinner - do a salad too.

So much for the forecast

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Rain and icy rain? No, just more snow and lots of it. National Weather Service

1211 PM PST Wed Feb 8 2017
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST

THURSDAY...

    • SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...13 to 25 inches...mainly in the passes and near the crest.
    • Timing...The heaviest snow will fall tonight...turning to rain in the passes Thursday morning. Freezing rain is possible in the passes and near the crest.
    • SNOW LEVEL...The snow level will rise to around 6000 feet... but cold air in Eastern Washington will keep the snow level lower near the crest and in the passes Wednesday night.

Temp is already falling - got up to 28.0°F this afternoon, now down to 25.9°F and falling. I do miss not having my morning coffee and some milk would be nice. Very well set otherwise - plenty of food in the pantry and firewood in the bin on the back porch. I have a generator if I absolutely need it - do not like the noise and reading by candlelight is fine by me.

Flooding in California

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From Sacramento, CA station KCRA:

They need to build some water storage dams but the enviros will not let them. It would greatly reduce the effects of drought and eliminate this flooding. How much property damage do they have to sustain before they bring this option to the table again.

Oh Joy - another Winter Storm Warning

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This just came in the email:

Winter Storm Warning 

    • Snow Accumulations, 1 or 2 Inches of Snow is Possible today and Into tonight, Particularly in Locations North Of Bellingham.
    • Ice Accumulation of Up to a Half an Inch Is Expected As Freezing Rain Falls this Evening.

Things just keep getting funner and funner...

Not just here - poor growing in Europe

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From Watts Up With That:

The New Maunder Minimum? Vegetable Shortages Strike London
The Sun reports that in London, some supermarkets are rationing purchases of vegetables like lettuce, which is in short supply due to Southern European crop failures.

SALAD SHORTAGE What is the 2017 vegetable shortage, which supermarkets are rationing broccoli and lettuce and what’s the cause of the crisis?
Tesco and Sainsbury’s are rationing iceburg lettuces and broccoli as cold weather in the Med causes a vegetable shortage.

Some more:

Read more: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2774614/vegetable-shortage-2017-supermarkets-rationing-broccoli-lettuce-crisis/

Why do I describe this as a possible early taste of Maunder Minimum like conditions? As WUWT has reported, solar activity has been unusually low this cycle, and appears to be trending downwards, leading to predictions we are entering a new solar grand minimum.

While the connection between solar activity and weather is controversial, in Europe, Solar Grand Minima appear to be associated with cold, rainy weather, and growing season difficulties.

Our Sun is a variable star and the regular solar cycles are at an all-time low when looking at the last 200 years or so. We need to address the idea of a 30-50 year period of abnormally low temperatures. This will have an impact on agriculture as well as energy costs. I am sitting here looking at a perfect example of this problem.

Sanctuary for Climate Scientists

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It has come to this - from the UK Guardian:

Emmanuel Macron enjoins uneasy US scientists: 'Move to France'
French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has called on US scientists, academics and entrepreneurs at odds with Donald Trump’s administration to move to France.

The former economy minister, one of the frontrunners in the upcoming presidential election, urged US-based scientists working on climate change, renewable energy and health issues who were wary of the new political situation to seek refuge across the Atlantic. “I want all those who today embody innovation and excellence in the United States to hear what we say: from now on, from next May, you will have a new homeland – France,” he said on Saturday.

Fine then. Go. We will not try to stop you. I wonder if France is able to offer the sweet sweet grant money that the US Government used to. There used to be many millions of taxpayer dollars for writing papers that propped up the Anthropogenic Global Warming scam for the last 20 years. The party is over, the wheels have fallen off the bus and it is time to think of something else to do. Learn welding - lots of people are hiring and the pay is great.

Here is my post from October 19th, 2015:

Keeping my fingers crossed - things are lining up
Too early to say right now but this year's El Niño is looking a lot like the one of 1997-1998. From Watts Up With That:

NASA: current El Niño ‘appears likely to equal the event of 1997-98’

NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water — sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event. This warm condition, known as El Niño, affects the local aquatic environment, but also spurs extreme weather patterns around the world, from flooding in California to droughts in Australia. This winter, the 2015-16 El Niño event will be better observed from space than any previous El Niño.

This year’s El Niño is already strong and appears likely to equal the event of 1997-98, the strongest El Niño on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. All 19 of NASA’s current orbiting Earth-observing missions were launched after 1997. In the past two decades, NASA has made tremendous progress in gathering and analyzing data that help researchers understand more about the mechanics and global impacts of El Niño.

Emphasis mine - what happened right after the 1997-1998 El Niño? From NOAA, August 2, 1999:

MT. BAKER HOLDS SNOWFALL RECORD, NOAA REPORTS
It's official – Mt. Baker, Wash., has set a new record for the most snowfall ever measured in the United States in a single season, the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported today.

The Mt. Baker Ski Area in northwestern Washington State reported 1,140 inches of snowfall for the 1998-99 snowfall season. The figure was scrutinized by the National Climate Extremes Committee, which is responsible for evaluating potential national record-setting extreme events. The committee, composed of experts from NOAA, the American Association of State Climatologists, and a regional expert from the Western Regional Climate Center, made a unanimous recommendation to the director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to accept the figure.

"In accepting the validity of the 1,140 inches of snowfall at Mt. Baker, the National Climatic Data Center recognizes that a new record has been set," said Tom Karl, director of the center. "The previous U.S. seasonal snowfall record was 1,122 inches, set during the 1971-1972 snowfall season at Mt. Rainer/Paradise, a station located at 5,500 feet on the slopes of Mt. Rainer, about 150 miles south of Mt. Baker."

There is a lot that can happen between now and 2017 so do not hold your breath but, like I said, things are lining up. The drop in temperatures will help a lot as lately we have been getting enough precipitation but it has been too warm.

Check out the Google Images page: Mt Baker record snowfall

Wonderful story at the London Daily Mail:

Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data
The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. Launched by NOAA with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.

And the data:

NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas.

Both datasets were flawed. This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.

The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified.

Much more at the site - NOAA is ripe with corruption. They are just publishing what people want to hear and not the actual data. no person is being held accountable so they think that they can get away without recrimination. Talk about a swamp needed draining...

Old news - global warming

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Yesterday, I posted about a chilling comment from the executive secretary of the U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change - she said this:

...the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.

Turns out that this quote is from the United Nations Regional Information Centre dated February 3rd, 2015

Figueres: First time the world economy is transformed intentionally
The Top UN Climate Change Official is optimistic that a new international treaty will be adopted at Paris Climate Change conference at the end of the year. However the official, Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of UNFCCC, warns that the fight against climate change is a process and that the necessary transformation of the world economy will not be decided at one conference or in one agreement.

"This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history", Ms Figueres stated at a press conference in Brussels.

"This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the industrial revolution. That will not happen overnight and it will not happen at a single conference on climate change, be it COP 15, 21, 40 - you choose the number. It just does not occur like that. It is a process, because of the depth of the transformation."

Rope. Tree. Some assembly required.

She needs to be run out of town, severely mocked and her words ignored. She is mentally ill if she thinks that this form of transformation is a good idea. Socialism has never ever worked - look at the paradise on earth that Venezuela is today.

That did not go as planned

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Spent some time scraping the driveway, fired up the truck and proceeded to slide down sideways on the underlying ice. Stuck there. I took the tractor out for coffee and back home. Fix lunch and then get the tow strap and try to get Thunderbunny un-stuck.

And of course, this little bundle of joy popped up in my inbox:

The National Weather Service in Seattle has Issued a Winter Storm
Warning for the Cascades from Whatcom county Through King County
for Snow, Which is in effect Until 4am PST Sunday. 

  • Snow Accumulations, 12 to 18 Inches of New Snow from Noon Through tonight.
  • Some Affected Locations, Mount Baker Highway, Stevens Pass Snoqualmie Pass.
  • Timing, Through 4am PST Sunday Morning.

Emphasis mine. I get it. It snows here. I went to school in Boston and this is peanuts compared to a New England winter but still...

From Investors Business Daily:

U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare
The alarmists keep telling us their concern about global warming is all about man's stewardship of the environment. But we know that's not true. A United Nations official has now confirmed this.

At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.

"This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution," she said.

Referring to a new international treaty environmentalists hope will be adopted at the Paris climate change conference later this year, she added: "This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history."

The only economic model in the last 150 years that has ever worked at all is capitalism. The evidence is prima facie: From a feudal order that lasted a thousand years, produced zero growth and kept workdays long and lifespans short, the countries that have embraced free-market capitalism have enjoyed a system in which output has increased 70-fold, work days have been halved and lifespans doubled.

Figueres is perhaps the perfect person for the job of transforming "the economic development model" because she's really never seen it work. "If you look at Ms. Figueres' Wikipedia page," notes Cato economist Dan Mitchell: Making the world look at their right hand while they choke developed economies with their left.

The world would be a much better place if all of the meddling Ms. Figueres' would just go away. They contribute nothing but poverty and pain.

Winter fscking wonderland

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The Weather Channel nailed it and the National Weather Service blew big chunks. I especially love that there were two founders for The Weather ChannelFrank Batten owner of Landmark Media (money and distribution) and Dr. John Coleman (brains) chief meteorologist at ABC owned-and-operated station WLS-TV in Chicago and as a forecaster for Good Morning America. The good Doctor is very vocal in his view that global warming is:

He has called climate change the "greatest scam in history". He claimed "The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number."

Woke up to two inches of fresh snow on the ground with more coming down. The inversion layer seems to be happening again, Mt. Baker also has two inches and it was 29°F at 7:41AM, we also have two inches and it got down to 21.4°F this morning.

Thunderbunny is idling in my driveway warming up - critters have fresh hay and water and dogs have been fed. Eating a bowl of oatmeal and taking my vitamins - heading out for coffee and see what the day drags in...

Fun times ahead - Cliff Mass

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Looks wet in the near future - from Cliff Mass:

Precipitation Returns to the Northwest
The last week has been relatively dry and cool, but the circulation pattern over the West Coast is about to change as high pressure aloft is replaced by moderate, moist southwesterly flow.

Thursday will be the last dry day for Washington, with a line up of increasingly wet storms invading the State starting Friday. The forecast for the 72h precipitation ending 4 PM Sunday says it all: WET, with some of the mountain areas getting 2-5 inches, with more over northern CA.

National Weather Service is predicting heavy rain while The Weather Channel is predicting Snow and Ice trending towards Snow Sunday. The Weather Channel has been a lot more accurate with their forecasts since I have been checking. The only thing they miss is my lower than normal temperatures - I am in a valley that runs North/South and catch Canada's Fraser River outflow when it happens - very cold and windy.

Good news for California's water

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From the San Jose Mercury News:

Sierra Nevada snowpack is biggest in 22 years — and more snow is on the way
California Gov. Jerry Brown isn’t likely to amend or rescind the state’s emergency drought declaration until April
After a month of huge blizzards and “atmospheric river” storms, the Sierra Nevada snowpack — source of a third of California’s drinking water — is 177 percent of the historic average, the biggest in more than two decades.

A bit more:

In a breathtaking shift for a state that had been mired in five years of punishing drought, 25 feet of new snow has fallen on Heavenly ski resort in South Lake Tahoe since New Year’s Day. Freeways and schools across the Sierra have been closed at times, and firefighters are having trouble finding fire hydrants.

Californian droughts come and go - unfortunately, lop-sided environmental policies have prevented them from building water storage dams that would tide them over. Protecting the Delta Smelt is another stupid thing that needs to be stopped.

A fine California whine

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2,300 scientists whine about possible funding cuts. From the Sacramento Bee:

2,300 California scientists write to Trump over climate fears
In response to reports that President Donald Trump would break an international climate agreement, more than 2,300 California scientists have signed an open letter to the White House urging the administration to uphold commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

State scientists have guardedly watched news about Trump’s plans for NASA and the Environmental Protection Agency since his election.

Their fast response to remarks made by a former Trump adviser over the weekend reflected their fears that Trump will reverse climate pacts championed by the Obama administration or make their work more difficult by restricting access to climate data that has been publicly available.

The letter is centered on the Paris climate agreement, a 2015 pact ratified by 127 countries that aims to slow global warming. It commits the U.S. to slashing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels over the next eight years.

“With this letter, we aim to express the degree to which the scientists and intellectual leaders of our state, speaking for themselves and not on behalf of their respective employers, agree on the facts of climate change,” reads the letter, which was drafted by UC Berkeley associate professor of astronomy Aaron Parsons. “Despite misleading portrayals, there is widespread consensus in the scientific and academic communities that human-caused climate change is real, with consequences that are already being felt.”

It is really funny - when someone with a degree in any other field criticizes the current work in Climate Studies, they are lambasted for not knowing what they are talking about. Here we have an associate professor of astronomy leading the charge for continued funding of their precious little Sinecures.

Ooooooo - the hypocrisy is strong in that one. Cut his funding by 80% - make him work for his living. Dance monkey, DANCE!!!

A great ruling from a local court

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From the UK Guardian of all places:

Judge in environmental activist's trial says climate change is matter of debate
A Washington state judge has sparked outrage for remarks questioning the existence of climate change and the role of humans in global warming.

During the high-profile trial of Ken Ward, a climate activist facing 30 years in prison for shutting down an oil pipeline, Judge Michael E Rickert said: “I don’t know what everybody’s beliefs are on [climate change], but I know that there’s tremendous controversy over the fact whether it even exists. And even if people believe that it does or it doesn’t, the extent of what we’re doing to ourselves and our climate and our planet, there’s great controversy over that.”

The Skagit County judge made the comments on 24 January while addressing Ward’s request to present a “necessity defense” in court, meaning he would argue that the grave threat of climate change justified civil disobedience.

Bad move on Ward's part - the "necessity defense" can be invoked if doing an action will prevent a certain loss of life or property. It does not apply to something that is up for debate. Yes, the temperatures have been getting warmer over time (except for the last 19 years - the warming has stalled). The idea that human action has caused this warming is not proven. We are situated right between one ice age and the next one - some measure of warming is very natural. What concerns me is that the sun is incredibly quiet and we could be headed for another 30-50 year cycle of colder than normal temperatures.

Ward's comment:

“I thought it was shocking and deeply worrisome for my case,” said Ward, 60, of Corbett, Oregon, who temporarily shut off the safety valve of the TransMountain pipeline in Skagit County. “We are in the late stages of global collapse, and to have someone who is presumably as knowledgeable and aware as a judge should be blithely dismissing the biggest problem facing the world is chilling.”

Talk about clueless ninny. We are nowhere near any kind of collapse except when you examine some of the more apocalyptic computer models. These models posit positive regulatory feedback regarding water vapor and temperature. Suffice to say, this model has been thoroughly debunked and sent packing. If it gets too warm, we have rain and thunder storms to cool things off. The regulatory feedback is negative

A perfect example of punching back twice as hard. These ninnies are disrupting people's lives and they need to be taught that actions have consequences. The data that they are basing their actions on is highly flawed - classic case of argumentum ad verecundiam - a logical fallacy.

Readers will know that I consider England's Prince Charles to be a moonbat of the highest order. A willful idiot. It seems that President Trump has the same opinion - from The London Daily Mail:

Trump's snub for the Green Prince: US President 'will avoid Charles on state visit to the UK because he wants to escape a lecture on climate change'
Donald Trump’s forthcoming State visit to Britain was hit by a diplomatic row last night after it emerged he wants to avoid Prince Charles because of their dispute over global warming.

The President is understood to have made it clear he does not want talks with the Prince at Clarence House, a regular feature of such visits. Trump is said to fear a meeting will encourage environmentalists to stage protests against him.

Heh...

A bit of earth movement in Peru

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Why I would never buy waterfront property - from Reuters

Dramatic television images showed the moment a colonial-era hotel, collapsed into the swollen waters of Sicra River in the Peruvian town of Lircay, in the district of Angaraes on Thursday (January 26). Civil Defense authorities said it started raining on Wednesday (January 25) afternoon and did not stop for 10 straight hours. The foundations of the three-story tourist hotel La Hacienda, which is built on the river edge, eroded due to the rising waters and collapsed. According to local media, no injuries were reported because all of the guests had been evacuated before it collapsed. Several projects under construction in the town, located in the Huancavelica region, have also been destroyed due to constant rainfall. Damages to other houses, located in the neighborhoods of Pueblo Nuevo and Bellavista, were also reported, with floods in Bellavista affecting the most families, local media reported. Floods were also reported in other parts of the city. Thirty homes were flooded and roads were blocked by landslides. The National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology reported that heavy rains will continue and will increase in the coming months, until April, affecting the center and south of the country.

The Trump Effect - Climate

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From E&E News - The essential news for energy & environment professionals:

CDC quietly cancels long-planned climate summit
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quietly and abruptly canceled a major climate change summit scheduled for next month shortly after Donald Trump was elected president, according to emails sent to those scheduled to speak and obtained by E&E News.

The Climate and Health Summit was scheduled to be held in Atlanta, where the CDC is headquartered, in February. Agency leaders did not directly address why the summit was canceled and instead forwarded an email sent to participants indicating it may be rescheduled.

"We are currently exploring options so that the Summit may take place later in the year," CDC officials wrote.

Trump has made no secret of his opposition to climate change policy. He has called climate change a "hoax," and White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus said the president believes warming is "a bunch of bunk." One of the Trump administration's first moves yesterday was to replace the Obama administration whitehouse.gov site with issue platforms — the first of which vows to dismantle "harmful and unnecessary" climate change policies.

Time to get real science back in favor again. Junk science has been in the spotlight for way too long. Climate Change is just as bad as Lysenkoism - both were politically correct, both had top-level government support, both were abject junk science and both caused people to die - one by starvation, the other by freezing because fuel was too expensive for them to afford.

Surf's up - Monterey Bay

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From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Big waves pounded NorCal coast Saturday: Record breakers in Monterey Bay
As a swell moved in from the west, big waves pounded the Northern California coast on Saturday.

The National Weather Service (NOAA) buoys recorded waves from 20 to 30-plus feet between Cape San Martin to the south and Point Arena to the north.

Monterey Bay recorded the largest waves it has seen in 30 years with the swell reaching 34.12 feet at one point. The previous record was 32.8 feet in 2008.

(There is a great short video that I tried to embed and cannot. Visit the site to view)

That would be fun to see - wonder if any of this is hitting further up north - Oregon or Washington coast. I love big waves when I am safely on shore with a hot mug of coffee in hand.

The Gore Effect

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Looks like The Gore Effect is out in full force - from The Hollywood Reporter:

Sundance Braces for Snow and Chilly Weather on Opening Weekend
Below-freezing temperatures arrive with opening night film 'An Inconvenient Sequel' and could mar the planned Women's March on Main.

Park City is bracing for a slew of snow at Sundance Film Festival.

The festival locale sank to below-freezing temperatures ahead of Thursday's opening-night film An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, Al Gore's climate-change follow-up to 2006's An Inconvenient Truth.

What warming?

About that global warming - arctic ice

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From The Siberian Times:

Icebreakers make historic Arctic voyage, then get stuck in frozen sea on return journey
Bulk carriers Sinegorsk and Johann Mahmastal made a successful midwinter cargo crossing from Arkhangelsk to Russia's northernmost port of Pevek, Chukotka, escorted by icebreakers Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov.

It was the first such crossing since Soviet times, and the ships delivered supplies for the supplies for the world's first floating heat and power plant to be assembled in Chukotka after a journey lasting from 14 December to 7 January.

The ease of the sailing is seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shopping lanes even in midwinter. But the climate remains unpredictable as the four vessels have discovered on their return route.

They are currently trapped by sudden thick ice around Chukotka's northernmost cape Shelagsky, some 24 nautical miles from Pevek, in some of Russia's most exposed waters.

As for this quote: climate warming in the Arctic can open up shopping lanes even in midwinter - they did not do their homework. From the Vancouver Maritime Museum:

THE ST. ROCH - A TRUE CANADIAN ADVENTURE
Built in British Columbia, named after a parish in Quebec, captained by a Norwegian immigrant, crewed by farm boys from across the country, and helped by the Inuit, the St. Roch was the first vessel to sail the Northwest Passage from west to east (1940-1942), the first to complete the passage in one season (1944), and the first to circumnavigate North America.

Emphasis mine - the ice comes and goes. It is more dependent on wind and currents than absolute temperature. Another example? How about the USS Skate:


USS Skate (SSN-578) Becomes the First Submarine to Surface at the North Pole
USS Skate (SSN-578) hung below the Arctic ice like a matchstick suspended an inch from the ceiling of a large room. A knot of sailors in the control room stared intently at an instrument inscribing patterns of parallel lines on a rolling paper tape. The pattern looked like an upside down mountain range.

“Heavy ice, ten feet,” said one of the sailors.

Suddenly the lines converged into a single narrow bar. “Clear water!” the sailor called out.

On the surface:

Calvert ordered the ballast tanks blown. The roar of high pressure air seemed earsplitting after the tense silence of the last few minutes. Upon surfacing, Calvert ordered the hatch opened, then climbed up to the bridge. The sky was slightly overcast and the damp air felt like an unseasonably warm February day in New England, with the temperature hovering near freezing. The submarine’s black hull stood out in stark relief against the deep blue of the calm lake in which the ship now floated. Beyond the lake, stretching to the horizon in every direction, was the stark white of the permanent polar ice pack. The officer who had climbed to the bridge with Calvert called the skipper’s attention to the port side of the ship. There a full grown polar bear was climbing slowly out of the water and up onto the ice.

The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.

20170119-skate.jpg

USS Skate (SSN-578) made submarine history on 11 August 1958 when it became
the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.

Want more? Read this post and watch the video: Ship of Fools More here.

The coming global warming

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More like ice age - here is the Acropolis in Athens Greece yesterday:

20170117-acropolis.jpg

The upcoming forecast

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Looks like a fun one - this is from the National Weather Service's web page:

20170116-watch.jpg

Our main river - the Nooksack - is running about four times below normal levels. That is due for a change really soon!

20170116-flow.png

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