Recently in Climate Category

Quite the blow

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It is coming out of the South and my home is shielded by a large bluff so I do not get the full effect but I am seeing 15MPG gusting to 23.

Some numbers: Snohomish PUD (mine) has 508 customers without electricity. Puget Sound Energy (to the south and the north) has about 100. Pacific Power has four customers in Oregon reading by candlelight. BC Hydro (coal actually) has about 150.

Loud gusting wind but no real significant damage - great news. I know around here, the crews have been doing a wonderful job trimming the trees near the power lines. A little infrastructure maintenance goes a long way. Talkin' to you California.

If one forecast doesn't get you, the other one will - from the National Weather Service:

Rock, meet hard place. I was driving North to Home Depot for supplies for this weekend and saw that the water in the irrigation ditches was the highest that I had ever seen. Sample size of two years for what that is worth but still...

It has to happen sometime - a new fresh face to be the advancing figure of the globalist state masquerading as climate change. Thunberg will be dropped like a stone in to a well. Spash. Gone. From Reuters:

'You have not seen anything yet,' climate activist Greta says ahead of Davos
Swedish activist Greta Thunberg marched with 10,000 protesters in the Swiss city of Lausanne on Friday and said “you have not seen anything yet” before some head to Davos next week to challenge the global financial elite to fight climate change.

The 17-year-old, who launched the #FridaysforFuture movement that has sparked worldwide protests, denounced a lack of government action to cut heat-trapping emissions before it is too late.

“So, we are now in a new year and we have entered a new decade and so far, during this decade, we have seen no sign whatsoever that real climate action is coming and that has to change,” Thunberg said in a speech in Lausanne.

“To the world leaders and those in power, I would like to say that you have not seen anything yet. You have not seen the last of us, we can assure you that. And that is the message that we will bring to the World Economic Forum in Davos next week.”

Brushfires? The Australian brushfires were caused by the environmentalists preventing people from doing an annual brush burn to keep the fire load down. (fire load is the availability of combustible materials - you want to maintain a low fire load). These burns were done yearly by the Aboriginal people well before the whites came. The colonists saw the logic of this and kept burning. The environmentalists stopped the burning, the fire load increased every year until they had an unseasonably hot year and then Ka-Boom.

We have a precident with the Great Yellowstone fires of 1988 - earlier, small fires were allowed to burn unimpeded but this policy was changed in 1960's and the fire load built.

The US has changed its policy although some states refuse to see the wisdom (cough California cough). The world needs to be able to cherry pick ideas that have proven themselves to be science based and useful. Not subscribe to some random rhetoric.

Thunberg's fifteen are well over - she needs to go back to her special-ed classes and leave the world stage.

The Planet is doing just fine. The people are fscked but the Planet is fine.

And we have snow

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Looking at 2-3 inches accumulation tonight - it let up for a while but it is starting to come down with a vengence.

Cliff Mass puts it at 2-3 inches for the area:

Serious Snow Threat Tonight for Puget Sound (and a lot more)
The latest model output supports the threat of serious snow tonight for our region.

The UW's highest resolution forecast model shows substantial regional variations, with the heaviest lowland snow from Seattle northward, with far less over Tacoma. But there is uncertainty on the exact location of the snow band...so keep that in mind. Seattle will face 2-5 inches if this forecast is correct. Road temperatures are now near freezing...so this is going to stick in places where SDOT and WSDOT have not pretreated or where plows are not active.

Hunker down for a day or so.

Blow ye breezes

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22MPH with gusts to 34 - not exactly weather for kayaking but a good stiff breeze for sailing. Or hunkering down in some safe harbor with a mug of soup, a nice warm cabin and a book. Take your pick.

Dodging a bullet - snow

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Looks like the snowpocalypse is just going to be a light dusting. Very glad. From Cliff Mass:

Snow is Coming Today to Western Washington, But Not Too Much for Most
I am going to go against one of the rules of the click-baiting online world. I am not going to even hint there is going to be a big snowstorm over Puget Sound land. Yes, most of you will see some flakes, but for most the ground will be barely whitened.

As we shall see, a highly transient Arctic Front/convergence zone will bring a few hours of snow showers, with totals ranging from a few tenths of an inch near the Sound to perhaps 1-2 inches in the far eastern suburbs.

I am going to show you some forecast snow totals....but keep in mind there is lot of uncertainty regarding the exact distribution of snowfall.

The latest super-high resolution (1.3 km grid spacing) UW WRF forecast (below) for 24-h snowfall (through 4 AM Monday), shows light snow (~1 inch( over NW Washington, with 2-4 inches over the northeast Olympic Peninsula. Most of Seattle is around 1 inch, with some heavier snow east of the city. LOTS of snow in the Cascades.

Going out for a walk at Barnum Point - an exposed area with high bluffs shortly. Might be interesting. We both have good senses of self-preservation. Very windy - gusts up to 22MPH.

The winter storm

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An update from Cliff Mass:

The Detailed Snow Forecast for Sunday and Monday
We are now close enough in time that we can apply some of our most powerful prediction tools to the snow forecast problem for Sunday/Monday. Plus, we are close enough so that uncertainties have lessened.

Before I talk about that, let me note that as expected the Cascades are being hit very hard with a large snowfall, with Snoqualmie Pass receiving about 2 feet of snowfall during the past day. Snoqualmie was closed for a while, and both Snoqualmie and Stevens require chains at this time.

And Mount Baker is having some great skiing conditions - from their snow report:

Well, this is starting to sound like a broken record, but we had an amazing powder day at Baker yesterday, and today looks to be another great day with more fresh snow! We've received over 100 inches of snowfall in the past 9 days! It should be another snowy and cold day today with fun conditions, so come enjoy a classic Baker pow day with the family! 

Sounds like fun - wish we could take off and do some cross country skiing but we both have a lot on our plates for the next week or two.

Ho. Li. Crap. Cold weather

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Forecast analysis from Cliff Mass:

The Coldest Air in Years Will Hit Western Washington
This is a lot of discussion about snow, but there is something we should keep firmly in mind: the arctic air that is going to reach western Washington will be the coldest in years. Backed by strong winds in some areas, this cold will not only test our housing infrastructure (freezing pipes), but will be life threatening to those living outside or for the unprepared in higher terrain.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20's. And, it gets better:

And then there are the winds!  According to the high-resolution models, northeasterly winds, with gusts to 40-60 mph, will hit NW Washington, resulting in wind chills below zero.

Interesting times. I am not worried about the farm, I have not had running water there for months. Still need to get the well people out to fix it but I am only there for - at most - overnight so no water is not a hassle. Down here should be interesting. Plus, I am scheduled to give a presentation to our local arts group that next day on the 15th.

Our climate - a bit of reality

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Zero hysteria and some actual numbers from Watts Up With That:

The Climate Decade that Was: Failed Predictions, Tour De Paris, and the Gretas
As we step into a new decade, here’s a look at the climate drama that just ended.

The 2010s were dominated by the failure of doomsday prophecies, the adoption of a fantasy climate agreement, unexpected weather trends, and the beginning of the climate emergency cult movement that reminded many of the overpopulation hype of the 1970s and 1980s.

Al Gore Prophecies
Al Gore’s legacy of lies continued to spill into the second decade of this century. Contrary to his predictions in the famous climate documentary An Inconvenient Truth, polar bear populations increased, the Arctic and Antarctic remained relatively unaffected, and no major coastal economy was threatened by rising sea levels.

Gore would have had nightmares when the Canadian authorities in 2019 pondered culling polar bears because of their excess numbers caused trouble for residents in Nunavut.

No Snow Australia
Australia may be embroiled in historic wildfires—mostly caused by arson—right now. But climate scientists were caught red handed when their predictions of a snow-free Australia failed by massive proportions in the past decade.

The reason was obvious. The warming was not as pronounced as it was forecast to be, and snowfall in Australia is controlled by regional weather patterns. Moreover, there has been no significant change in the number of very hot days since World War I.

More at the site. The author closes with this little bit of truth:

One could go on and on with more amusing and interesting drama that took place in the past decade, but let us end it here. Cheers to the next decade, a decade that may very well end with global cooling doomsayers dominating our news headlines.

Why? Look up into the sky. See that bright, fiery ball? It’s in a cooling cycle.

Plain facts - not computer models.

The brush fires in Australia

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The blame? The environmentalists. From Christopher Monckton of Brenchley writing at Anthony's:

Bush bull
This will be a long posting, because it is necessary to nail the childish myth that global warming caused the bushfires in Australia. The long, severe drought in Australia, culminating in the most extensive bushfires in recent history, ought to have aroused sympathy for the cattle-ranchers who have lost their livestock and the citizens who have lost their homes. But no. Instead, those who profiteer by asserting that global warming is the cause of every extreme-weather event have rushed to state – falsely – that an “overwhelming scientific consensus” (to cite the Greens’ website) blames the incidence, extent, duration and severity of the drought and bushfires on the somewhat warmer weather caused by our having increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 1 part in 10,000 from 0.03% to 0.04% by volume.

Nearly all of the news media have taken the line that capitalism in general and the non-socialist governing coalition in particular are to blame. Nearly all have failed to mention the true causes of the current firestorm.

Like Lord Monckton said when he opened, this is a very long post but he is an excellent writer and he lays out the real reasons for the fires with historical evidence that these fires are not a new thing. The aborigines used controlled burns to clear out the fire load years before any settlers moved there.

In 1642 Abel Tasman wrote of the smoke in the sky and the scorched trees wherever his expedition landed. Captain James Cook described the same conditions in 1770. This deliberate burning created the grassland landscapes that dominated pre-European Australia.

Just go and read the whole thing.

Mt. Baker snow

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From the Mt. Baker snow report:

What an incredible storm we are experiencing up here at Baker! We have received over 50 inches of snow since Friday night, but are in the midst of a temporary warm-up right now and it’s rained to mid mountain.

Snow levels are expected to drop to 3000’ tonight with continued snowfall and temperatures are forecasted to drop to 1000’ by Wednesday!! Given this scenario we are expecting to receive snow at cool temps Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday with significant snowfall measured in feet forecasted for Friday at low snow levels.

Very good news. Also, an update from Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass

The Lowland Snow Threat
I would not run to the food store yet. But there is a significant chance for some light lowland snow over portions of western Washington during the week.

Uncertainty is still high, but sufficiently cold air will be in place to allow snow to reach sea level for substantial portions of time. The issue is getting precipitation during those cold periods.

Much more at the site. What global warming?

Happy happy joy joy

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From local meteorologist Cliff Mass:

Massive Snowfall and Heavy Precipitation Will Pummel the Cascades This Week
This is going to be a week of superlatives over the region, as heavy precipitation will produce both river flooding and a huge snowfall over regional terrain. Enough snow so that skiers and ski areas will be jubilant, and enough water that fears of lack of drought this summer will be far less.

Much more at the site - making sure that my radio batteries are charged, take the generator out for a test run and thankful that I already have a month or two of food stockpiled.

Much more at the site - should be "interesting" to say the least...

A quiet Sun

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Our sun had a few spots last week from the next cycle but it has been very quiet. How quiet? From Spaceweather:

CENTURY-CLASS SOLAR MINIMUM:
On the sun, 2019 is ending the same way it began--without sunspots. The sun has been blank for 281 days this year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913 (311 days). This means we are experiencing a century-class Solar Minimum. Forecasters expect these low sunspot counts to continue in 2020. Happy New Year!

No sunspots = quiet sun

Quiet sun = cooler climate on Earth (and the other planets - Mars' icecap is growing)

Global warming? Still waiting for conclusive proof and not the results of some new computer model. CO2 is plant food.

And we are back to normal

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The waters of the mighty Stillaguamish river are back to normal after this week's pineapple express:

20191224-stilly.png

Quite the disturbance in the force...

What a difference nine hours (and a pineapple express) makes - the mighty Stillaguamish River at Arlington:

20191220-rain01.png

From 13,000 Cu. Ft. / Second up to 22,900 Cu. Ft. / Second. The trend line is starting to flatten out but no end in sight.

Took the pups for a walk this afternoon along the banks of the Skagit river and it was several feet higher than usual.

Rainfall - local river

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Yesterday's rainfall did not take long to manifest in the local river:

20191220-rain.png

No sign of slowing down and more rain in the forecast.

Climate change - Cliff Mass

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Once again, Cliff Mass is the absolute voice of reason in a herd of shrieking moon-bats. From today's post:

A Science-Based Approach to Dealing with Climate Change in Washington State
Sometimes I muse about it--if I were in control of Washington State's response to global warming, what would I do? What would a rational, science-based approach look like, devoid of the hype and politics that is hindering progress today?

I would start by noting few principles:
1. The implications of global warming for the Northwest is serious (more extreme rainfall, warmer temperatures, less mountain snowpack, rising sea level in place) but it won't be existential and changes will initially be relatively small, accelerating later in the century.

2. Scientists and politicians must communicate the truth--the best estimates of our science. Exaggeration and hyping impacts "to get people to do the right thing" is both unethical and counterproductive. It produces unnecessary fear or turning away from the problem.

3. The effort MUST be bipartisan. Nothing major is ever accomplished by one party, something particularly true of our divided state and nation. We must not mix political goals (e.g., social engineering) with dealing with what is essentially a scientific/technical problem (increasing concentrations of one gas).

4. Few people are willing to sacrifice today to stop global warming tomorrow (including climate scientists with huge travel-related carbon footprints). Thus, all steps should provide benefits in the short run or not produce large additional costs.

5. Global warming and its impacts will be solved with science and technology.

Very rational and well thought out - read the whole thing.

We are now at 270 days with no sunspots (77% of the total year). The last recent record was 2008 with 268 spot-free days and before that, we have to go back to 1913. I had written about this two days ago here: And it is a tie - sunspots

Stock up on firewood and warm clothing - the next couple of years might be an interesting ride.

And it is a tie - sunspots

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From Spaceweather:

20191214-sunspot.JPG

Last time we had so few sunspots was in 2008 - another solar minimum. What makes things really interesting is this from Paul Dorian writing at Watts Up With That:

Deep solar minimum on the verge of an historic milestone
The sun is currently in the midst of a deep solar minimum and it is about to reach an historic milestone. So far this year the sun has been blank (i.e., no visible sunspots) for 266 days and, barring any major surprises, it’ll reach 269 days early next week which will be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 when the sun was spotless for 311 days. In fact, the current stretch of consecutive spotless days has reached 29 and for the year the sun has been blank 77% of the time. The current record-holder in the satellite era for spotless days in a given year is 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913.

Solar minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, but the last one and the current one have been far deeper than most. One of the consequences of a solar minimum is a reduction of solar storms and another is the intensification of cosmic rays. The just ended solar cycle 24 turned out to be one of the weakest in more than a century – continuing a weakening trend that began in the 1980’s – and, if the latest forecasts are correct, the next solar cycle will be the weakest in more than 200 years.

And back to Spaceweather:

COSMIC RAY UPDATE: Something ironic is happening in Earth's atmosphere. Solar activity is low--very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are at a 5 year high.

Take a look at these data gathered by cosmic ray balloons launched by Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus almost weekly since March 2015:

20191214-cosmic.jpg

Radiation levels have been increasing almost non-stop since the monitoring program began, with recent flights registering the highest levels of all.

What's happening? The answer is "Solar Minimum"--the low point of the 11-year solar cycle. During Solar Minimum (underway now) the sun's magnetic field weakens and allows energetic particles from deep space to penetrate the Solar System. As solar activity goes down, cosmic rays go up; yin-yang.

When cosmic rays hit the top of Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles and photons that rain down on Earth's surface. This is what our balloons measure--the secondary spray. We use X-ray and gamma-ray detectors sensitive to energies in the range 10 keV to 20 MeV. This type of radiation, which you can also find in medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners, has increased more than 20% in the stratosphere.

But it is all the fossil fuel use that is causing this... Right?

Our sun is entering a period of low output and we are set to experience a cooling trend on Earth.

Rain incoming

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Cliff Mass has a way with words here:

The Northwest Weather Machine Shifts Gears
You can tell something has changed.

A look at the latest wave vapor satellite image (which shows the amount of water vapor in the middle to upper troposphere) leaves one's mouth agape, with a HUGE plume of water vapor (light color) inundating the entire West Coast. This doesn't look like the pineapple express, more like the pineapple train yard.

Emphasis mine - here is the satellite image:

20191211-satellite.jpg

Mt. Baker is pretty happy too:

Wednesday December 11 - Pre-Season Update
Everyone's snow dancing is working! It has started snowing on the mountain and the latest forecasts are calling for 20+ inches of new snow between Wednesday and Saturday morning. Given this forecast and the snow we already have on the ground, WE COULD BE OPEN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK!

With the way the snow is coming in, we should have a good idea of where we are sitting by this Saturday afternoon and will hopefully have more details on a possible Opening Day. Looking further out, the snow is expected to return towards the middle-to-end of next week, which could set us up with a nice refresh for the weekend and Santa Photos on the 21st and 22nd!

This all depends, of course, on how the weather unfolds, so stay tuned here for daily updates and the most up-to-date info on Opening Day.

Great news for the store. Ski season is our second best time of the year.

Excellent rant from Cliff Mass - read the whole thing, not just my excerpt:

Promoters of Climate Anxiety
There is a special place in the underworld for those who promote anxiety, desperation, and terror in the most vulnerable. A place where the infernal warmth is particularly torrid.

And one does not have to spend much time looking for candidates for this netherworld--the front page of the Seattle Times will do fine.

On Sunday, our local tabloid featured a story about fearful/desperate folks dealing with their apocalyptic fears about climate change.

Like I said, go and read the whole thing - he links to the various fear-mongering in the media and excoriates them for what they are. Good stuff. The 70+ comments make for good reading.

And it is closed for the season - SR-20

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From the WA Department of Transportation:

SR 20 North Cascades Highway, between Diablo and Mazama, closing to vehicles until 2020
A snowy forecast means State Route 20 North Cascades Highway will close for the season at 6 a.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 11. This is the latest road closure date in more than a decade.

Washington State Department of Transportation crews close this stretch of SR 20 every year once snow fills the avalanche chutes that line the highway, which poses a safety risk to travelers and road crews.

Road closure points
The closure points start at milepost 134/Ross Dam Trailhead and at milepost 171/Silver Star Gate. When significant snow begins to fall, WSDOT crews will move the western closure point back to milepost 130/Colonial Creek Campground and the eastern closure point to milepost 177/Early Winters Campground. These weather-dependent changes usually happen in January. Signs along SR 20 are posted in advance of the closure point and updates on the WSDOT website will reflect where the road is closed.

Winter recreation on SR 20
Hikers, skiers, snowmobilers and other recreationalists can access the closed portion of highway during the winter season. Users should park in designated parking areas to allow plow drivers the space they need to clear snow around the closed stretch’s access gates.

WSDOT closes this stretch of highway due to avalanche risk, so anyone using this area should check forecasts and be aware of quickly changing conditions in the mountains. Travelers can also check conditions with North Cascades National Park before trips to this area.

And that is it for the season. Yes, this is the latest date for closure in a decade but if you go back a few more years, this is not an unusual date by any means. Last week I posted this:

The current statement is that this is the latest that the pass has stayed open in the last decade - climate change.

Actually, if you look at the numbers, you can see that it closed on January 3rd, 1990 with December 8th, 13th, 15th, 17th, 18th and many other dates past today. This is the effect of weather, not climate.

In other news, Mt. Baker is looking at maybe opening next week:

Tuesday December 10 - Pre-Season Update
After some anxious waiting, we are finally seeing snow headed our way!

The forecast is looking positive; we should see a fair amount of new snow hit Mt. Baker Ski Area over the coming week and based on the forecast we have the potential to do setup early next week with a good possibility of opening as early as middle of next week! This depends, of course, on how the weather unfolds, so stay tuned here for daily updates and the most up-to-date info on Opening Day.

November has been an unseasonably dry month - time for the jet stream to shift back to its normal path and deliver us some moisture... R. U. Listening?

Our quiet sun

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From Space Weather:

ONE WEEK FROM A SPACE AGE RECORD: 2019 is about to set a Space Age record. So far this year, the sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 262 days, including the last 25 days in a row. If the streak continues for only 7 more days, 2019 will break the Space Age record for spotless suns.

Presaging another Maunder Minimum?

The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period starting in about 1645 and continuing to about 1715 when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time.

The term was introduced after John A. Eddy published a landmark 1976 paper in Science. Astronomers before Eddy had also named the period after the solar astronomers Annie Russell Maunder (1868–1947) and E. Walter Maunder (1851–1928), who studied how sunspot latitudes changed with time. The period the husband and wife team examined included the second half of the 17th century. Two papers were published in Edward Maunder's name in 1890 and 1894, and he cited earlier papers written by Gustav Spörer. Due to the social climate of the time, Annie's contribution was not publicly recognized.

And what is so important about sunspot numbers? Sunspots are a great proxy for solar activity - the more spots, the more active the sun is. The more energy it is giving off. The warmer we are. Little Ice Age anyone?

Heading towards a record low - sunspots

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We have already beaten the record for 2009 at 261 days with no sunspots. 2008 is the next goalpost - there were 268 days with no sunspots and we have 23 days left in this year.

As an example, there were zero days without sunspots in 2015, 2013 and 2012. This is an incredibly deep solar niminum.

Sunspots are an excellent proxy for solar output - the more sunspots, the warmer it is on Earth (and all other planets - we can see the Martian icecaps grow and shrink). Another aspect of the quiet sun is that the lower solar output means more cosmic rays hitting earth. The solar wind acts as a shield when it hits our magnetic field. Here is an excerpt of the neutron count from 1965 through current recorded at the Oulu Observatory in Finland:

20191208-oulu.jpg

Heading towards some cold cold weather...

That would be a tough decision

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As to where to live:

20191203-hell.jpg

From Yahoo / Bloomberg:

America Braces for Possible French Fry Shortage After Poor Potato Harvest
Potato processors are rushing to buy supplies and ship them across North America in order to keep French fries on the menu after cold, wet weather damaged crops in key producers in the U.S. and Canada.

Cool conditions started to hit growing regions in October, lashing potatoes with frost. Farmers in Alberta and Idaho were able to dig up some damaged crops for storage. But growers in Manitoba, North Dakota and Minnesota received snow and rain, forcing them to abandon some supplies in fields.

As the wild weather hurt crops, an increase in fry-processing capacity in Canada has boosted demand. The combination will lead to tight supplies, and it’s likely that potato prices could climb this year across North America, Stephen Nicholson, a senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank, said in a phone interview. International costs may also rise as the U.S. won’t be able to export as much.

Cold weather to blame - it is cooling, not warming.

Two headlines - climate

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The Pelosi junket is funded with our tax money and she is not staying in a Motel Six while over there.

Winter storm

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I may (and do) gripe about being cold but am really glad that I do not live on the East coast - two headlines:

These are both from Weather.com

Rebranding global warming

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From advertising website AdAge:

RENAMING CLIMATE CHANGE: CAN A NEW NAME FINALLY MAKE US TAKE ACTION?
As a professional namer, I create names for companies, products and services. After the global climate strike this past September, I found myself thinking about the terms “climate change” and “global warming.” Are these scientific terms too neutral? Do they do enough to grab attention and inspire people to take action?

Scientific terms often fail to resonate in meaningful ways. In the early 1900s, for example, no one had heard of the "hypothesis of the primeval atom." That changed in the 1940s when the term “Big Bang” was coined, which was a simpler, more relatable concept for the masses. This complex scientific concept is extremely well-known today because a better, more tangible term was applied to it. Can we use lessons from the naming of the Big Bang to rebrand “climate change?”

A short history lesson: Scientists once used the term “inadvertent climate modification” to refer to subtle changes in global climate patterns caused by humans. During the 1970s, the scientific community created two new terms: global warming (the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature) and climate change (a long-term change in the Earth’s climate).

Originally, politicians latched onto global warming because it sounded more worrisome (the Earth is heating too fast). But it was too easy to poke holes in because the Earth was also getting colder. During polar vortex storms, skeptics often tweet that it "sure would be nice for some of that 'global warming' right about now." Politicians then pivoted to “climate change.” This concept was less easy to deny, but also less compelling and less actionable.

This leads me to wonder: Is there a better way to convey the urgency of the situation, while also encouraging folks to take action? Could the tools of branding and brand naming create a more resonant, powerful name? Our naming team decided to give it whirl, but first, we set some parameters and guideposts, as we would with any new brand name project:

More at the site. The numbers are not convincing people - maybe a good dose of hysteria will. This has always been a scam and it will be fun to see when the general public wises up to it. The coming cold weather should do the trick.

Getting colder all over - San Francisco

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From the San Francisco Chronicle:

San Francisco ties cold record as Bay Area freezes
If you thought Thanksgiving Day was unusually cold this year in San Francisco, you were correct. In fact, it tied a century-old record.

The high temperature in the city on Thursday was forty-eight degrees. That tied a record high temperature for the coldest date for San Francisco in the month of November. That record had stood unchallenged since November 27th, 1896, when it last happened.

According to the National Weather Service, the coldest high-temperature day ever in San Francisco was a freezing thirty-five degrees on December 11th, 1932. That day also holds the distinction for the coldest record low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is twenty-seven degrees.

What global warming. When the change in public perception happens, it will happen over the course of a few weeks and a lot of people are going to be looking very very stupid. Can't wait.

The Bomb Cyclone

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Really hit California - from the Los Angeles Times:

‘Travel not advised’: California travelers pounded by a cold Thanksgiving-week storm
Regina Valenzuela left her home in Bell early Tuesday bound for Portland, Ore., where she was going to pick up her aunt for Thanksgiving. Or so she thought.

She had checked the weather reports for Northern California. Snow was in the forecast, but it was just rain farther north in Oregon. No big deal, she figured.

By the time she hit Shasta Lake on Interstate 5 about 2:30 p.m., ice was thickening. Cars were sliding. She bought tire chains and kept driving.

Valenzuela made it 42 more miles, about to the Shasta County town of Castella, when traffic suddenly stopped. Thus began a 17-hour holiday nightmare, in which she was trapped overnight in her Honda Accord on the snowy mountain with scores of other motorists.

Much much more at the site. She was stuck near Redding, CA - I know that area and it can be trecherous.
Was snowed-in in Redding once two years before I started this blog - both of us were sick as dogs. Miserable time.

Juan Browne has this video from his Blancolirio YouTube channel:

Global warming anyone?

Greta just needs to go away. She will be dropped by the people who control her when she no longer is useful to them but in the interim, what a stupid scold. A harpy. A Debbie Downer. From England's The Sun:

WAR ON WHEELS Jeremy Clarkson claims Greta Thunberg has killed motor shows by making young people hate cars
Greta Thunberg has done the impossible – and overtaken cyclists at the top of Jeremy Clarkson’s Most Hated list.

The motoring show host has accused the 16-year-old climate change activist of being a big reason why young people today hate cars.

Speaking exclusively to The Sun, Jeremy, 59, ranted: “Everyone I know under 25 isn’t the slightest bit interested in cars — Greta Thunberg has killed the car show.

“They’re taught at school, before they say ‘Mummy and Daddy’, that cars are evil, and it’s in their heads.”

His long-term sidekick Richard Hammond, 49, agrees: “I hate to say it, but I think Jeremy is right.

“Young people don’t care about cars. How many kids now are growing up with posters of cars on their bedroom wall?”

Things will swing back and people will realize that this whole climate thing is #1) - out of our hands and #2) - completely unpredictable. Our variable sun controls our climate much more than our automobiles.

Wind storm - take two

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Got gusts up to 40MPH last night but woke up to a nice quiet morning. Wind is starting to pick up now - again, from the North. Oregon only has 45 customers without power. PSE is showing 2,882 customers from Tacoma through Bellingham and BC Hydro is showing about 9,000 customers out.

When I went out for coffee, there was a fine dusting of salt all over my car. My driveway is on the other side of the house from the ocean so there was a lot of aerosolized salt in the air.

From The Gateway Pundit:

Do-Nothing Speaker Pelosi Blows Off All Her Work in DC Will Join Global Warming Summit in Madrid with Greta Thunberg
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Do-Nothing Democrats have done NOTHING for the American people since taking over Congress in January 2018.
NOTHING.

But they have harassed, threatened, abused, cursed and throttled the President of the United States.

Next week Pelosi will continue this trend and push forward with her sham impeachment hearings in the House Judiciary Committee.

And then Speaker Pelosi will join Swedish teen Greta Thunberg at the Madrid Global Warming Summit.

The Madrid summit is just a re-hash of the Paris summit. A bunch of know-nothing losers wanting money.
Scam not science.

Staring down the barrel

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Looks like the bomb-cyclone is going to be a big one. From Cliff Mass:

The Oregon Storm is Exploding
The meteorological-bomb storm is not disappointing-- in fact, it will probably be stronger than originally expected.

The visible satellite picture around 10:30 AM shows a beautiful storm developing, with the low center in the center of the swirl of clouds due west of the central Oregon Coast.

20191126-bomb.jpg

One way we can tell this storm is deepening rapidly is looking at the water vapor imagery, which shows the amount of water vapor in the upper troposphere. Blue indicates lots of moisture, red/orange very little. There is extreme dryness behind the storm that is the result of vigorous descent behind the low. Such strong descent only occurs in rapidly deepening, intense storms.

Much more at the site - going to be a big one. Next: Bellingham Herald:

Frigid northeast wind could bring 60 mph gusts, Thanksgiving power outages to Whatcom
Cold Canadian air that brought a dusting of lowland snow Monday in southern Whatcom County could mean power outages from Wednesday to Thanksgiving morning, forecasters in Seattle said.

A high wind warning was issued for sustained northeast winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds that fierce could cause tree damage and local power outages, the weather service said in its online forecast.

“Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds,” the forecast said. “Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.”

The gale warning is in effect from 7:00PM tonight to 10:00AM Thursday

It has not even hit yet but Oregon already has 1,495 customers without power. Here are the outages for Seattle, Snohomish, Bellingham and BC Hydro - nothing to see but handy links to follow through the event.

Going to get interesting - bomb cyclone

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From Cliff Mass:

A Bomb Cyclone Will Hit the Southern Oregon Coast
An explosively developing bomb-cyclone will hit the southern Oregon coast tomorrow, with hurricane-force wind gusts, towering waves, and lots of precipitation.

The term "meteorological bomb" is given to a midlatitude cyclone whose central pressure declines by more than 24 millibars (or 24 hPa) in 24 hours (there is a latitude dependence of the criterion, but this is close enough).  This storm is going to blow that criterion away.

Virtually all the models agree on this extraordinary strengthening, so confidence it quite high.  And there are some aspects of this storm that are very unusual. Let me show you the details.

The initial step in the development of the storm, a process called cyclogenesis, is occurring as I write this blog.

Much more at the site. Gale warning predicted for the island tomorrow evening. From weather.com:

Gale Watch for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands
From 10:00pm PST, Tue Nov 26 until 10:00am PST, Thu Nov 28

Issued by: Seattle/Tacoma - WA, US, National Weather Service,
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WIND...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS. &&

Wonder which direction the wind will be coming out of. November is the time for these kinds of storms.

Happy happy joy joy

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Looks like winter is arriving - from the Stanwood-Camano News:

Cold air — and maybe snow — heading our way
Snow could fall Monday night in the foothills surrounding the Stanwood Camano region as arctic air filters into the area, according to the National Weather Service.

Little to no snow accumulation is expected as lows Monday night will dip into the upper 20s, according to the Weather Service office in Seattle.

"Pinpointing exactly where and when those accumulations will occur is extremely difficult due to the hit/miss nature of the showers," according to the Weather Service. "However, the best odds will be Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning across the north Interior (Island, Skagit, Snohomish, southern Whatcom, northern King, northern Jefferson, and northern Clallam counties) where precipitation may be enhanced by convergence at times, leading to temporarily lowered snow levels and very isolated accumulations of 1-3 inches."

Snow levels could drop to 500 feet, weather officials said. Between Sunday and Tuesday, Stevens Pass could accumulate 8 to 12 inches, according to Weather Service forecasters.

Cold weather is usual. Cold enough for snow this early is not. NASA's Space Weather site has our sun with no sunspots today - the 248th such day this year. Fewer sunspots = lower solar output.

The cult of Climate Change

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Those that believe in anthropogenic global warming are members of a cult. They are not scientists. Not by any stretch of anyone's imagination. To say that they listen to scientists only shows how much they cherry-pick their talking points. I was typing the word facts just now and realized that they do not deal with facts. Talking Points was much more in line.

From Town Hall:

Climate Scientists Reduced to Hiding from Climate Thuggery in Germany
More than 200 people, including dozens of scientists, are in hiding right now in Germany. I am one of them. I can tell you that I am in Munich, but I can’t tell you my hotel. I can tell you that the scientists will meet on Friday and Saturday to share scientific knowledge, but I can’t tell you where. The meeting, in which scientists will present evidence contradicting an asserted climate crisis, was scheduled to be open to the public, but fascist climate thugs have forced us into hiding. The German government, rather than protecting scientists and free speech, has explicitly refused to protect scientists from the threat of violence.

The lineup of speakers at the European Institute for Climate and Energy's (German acronym EIKE) annual climate conference is impressive. Among the speakers are scientists at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Aachen University of Applied Sciences, University of Bern, Danish National Space Center, Institute for Solid-State Nuclear Physics, Università di Napoli Federico II, and Universität Rostock. Their crime? Delivering talks titled, “The Real Condition of the Great Barrier Reef,” “The Influence of Greenhouse Gases on Climate Research,” “What Role Did the Sun Play in Climate Change,” etc. Seeking to shut down any scientific research and discussion that may endanger a purported justification for its anti-freedom political agenda, a climate activist group calling itself Offenes Antikapitalistisches Klimatreffen München, which is reportedly affiliated with the terror group Antifa, threatened the EIKE meeting, calling on thugs in Germany to mobilize against the conference.

EIKE, to its credit, courageously stuck to its conference plans despite the explicit threat. The Offenes Antikapitalistisches Klimatreffen München—which is roughly translated as the Munich Anti-capitalist Climate Activists—then upped the ante by storming the NH Conference Center in Munich. The group threatened additional action against employees and visitors at the conference center on the day of the conference and on the days leading up to the conference. Citing fears about the safety of its employees and guests, the NH Conference Center told EIKE it would not allow EIKE to hold its conference there.

Having invested tens of thousands of dollars into the event, including travel costs for scientists from around the world, EIKE asked the German courts to uphold the contract EIKE had signed with the NH Conference Center. Instead, a German court ruled the NH Conference Center faced a legitimate safety threat and therefore could violate its agreement with EIKE. A more just and civilized verdict would have been for the court to direct German police to protect scientists’ rights to free speech and academic freedom against fascist street thugs. But this is Germany and the street thugs share the same climate position as the German government. So, street thugs allied with the German government force free speech, academic freedom, and disfavored political views into hiding. And the German government is condoning this fascist thuggery by refusing to deploy police to keep the peace at a specific place and a specific event threatened by fascist street thugs.

Some know-nothing thugs mau-mauing the actual scientists who are trying to figure out what is going on.

Talk about progress...

Yawn - Al Gore

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His fifteen minutes are well over - time for him to leave the public stage and spend more time with his grandkids.
From The Washington Times:

Gore on climate-change threat: 'This is the Battle of the Bulge. This is 9/11'
Former Vice President Al Gore on Tuesday compared the seriousness of climate change to battles fought during WWII and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

“This is Pearl Harbor. This is Midway. This is the Battle of Bulge. This is 9/11. We have to rise to this challenge. We have to change,” Mr. Gore said during a speech in New Jersey after Gov. Phil Murphy laid out his plan to transition the Garden State to clean energy sources, a local CBS affiliate reported.

Mr. Gore made the same comparison on Wednesday during a speech at Vanderbilt University in Nashville promoting his Climate Reality Project.

Chicken little all over again.

The coming ice age

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Two dispatches from the field:

From Polar Bear Science:

Western Hudson Bay freeze-up earlier than average for 1980s for the third year in a row
This is the third year in a row that freeze-up of Western Hudson Bay (WH) ice has come earlier than the average of 16 November documented in the 1980s. Reports by folks on the ground near Churchill confirm polar bears are starting to move onto the sea ice that’s developing along the shore after almost 5 months on land. After five good sea ice seasons in a row for WH polar bears, this repeat of an early freeze-up means a sixth good ice season is now possible for 2019-2020.

From Ag Policy Blog:

Lawmakers Write FERC About Propane Shortages
Members of Congress on Thursday wrote the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission seeking to alert the commission to the need for a continued supply of propane to Midwest states.

Farmers and other rural residents across the Midwest "are facing an untenable situation with limited propane supplies in available in some areas to dry corn coming off the field," wrote the 31 House members from both parties who signed the letter.

Rep. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, spearheaded the letter.

"We hope to avoid a disastrous situation with cold temperatures and snow in the forecast spiking demand for residential deliveries just as farmers are needing to heat poultry and livestock barns and crop farmers are facing one of their most frustrating harvest seasons in years," lawmakers explained in the letter to Neil Chatterjee, chairman of FERC.

It is getting colder, not warmer.

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