Recently in Climate Category

Clueless - The New York Times

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But they get the narrative correct anyway. From The New York Times:

Brace for the Polar Vortex; It May Be Visiting More Often
Find your long johns, break out the thick socks and raid the supermarket. After a month of relatively mild winter weather, the Midwest and the East Coast are bracing for what is becoming a seasonal rite of passage: the polar vortex.

The phrase has become synonymous with frigid temperatures that make snowstorms more likely. A blast of arctic air heralded the vortex’s arrival on Monday.

If it seems as if these polar freezes are happening more often, you’re right. “They are definitely becoming more common,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. “There have been a couple of studies that have documented that.”

The Polar Vortex is a purely natural phenomenon - it has happened before, it will happen again.

It is funny too as when you go to the link that Dr. Francisposted, it goes to a single paper that talks about the Polar Vortex but connects it to the variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. No mention of global warming. The ENSO is also a natural phenomenon - it has happened before, it will happen again.

Our cooling Earth

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Another major cold snap will hit the East Coast - from AccuWeather:

Snowstorms to be followed by Arctic outbreak in eastern half of nation
Following a pair of snowstorms into this weekend, the coldest air so far this winter season has its sights set on the eastern half of the nation.

The second in this pair of snowstorms will bring heavy snow and, in some cases, blizzard conditions, to the central Plains and Midwest from Friday into Saturday before impacting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend.

“Temperatures from the central Plains to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will plummet from the 20s, 30s and 40s Fahrenheit during the storm to the single digits, teens and 20s immediately behind it,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Meanwhile, our sun is still very very quiet - NASA's Spaceweather website shows us as being 11 days without a sunspot. 61% of 2019. Sunspots are a proxy of solar activity - fewer sunspots, lower solar output. Lower solar output, cooler climate.

From American Thinker:

California set to seize 1,100 miles of coastline
The California Coastal Commission is set to empower local government to take thousands of properties through eminent domain along 1,100 miles of coastline to prepare for sea level rise.

Despite California being battered by 4-8 inches of torrential rain and flooding from an El Niño weather cycle, E&E News reported that the State of California in late January will authorize eminent domain authority for local jurisdictions to implement a "managed retreat" policy that will allow taking and demolishing coastal homes and businesses.

The California Coastal Commission circulated an 87-page "Draft Residential Adaptation Guidance" in March regarding how communities could proactively address sea level rise impacts through Local Coastal Programs (LCPs). Although the CCC draft did not adopt specific retreat guidance, the California Special Districts magazine expects that the CCC will predict a sea level rise of 2.5-5.5 feet and the elimination of 31-67 percent of Southern California beaches by the year 2100.

CCC retreat guidance is expected to also entail dismantling and relocating of dozens of wastewater treatment and power plants; 250 miles of highway; 1,500 miles of roads; and 110 miles of railways, according to the latest California Special Districts magazine.

What is missing from this picture is some numbers. They have the narrative, they do not have the numbers.
NASA has the numbers here:

20190117-sealevel.jpg

This is the sea level rise as measured from 1880 through 2013. Notice the huge acceleration starting around 1970 when the whole Global Warming thing started ramping up. Yeah - me neither.

Science requires numbers, not narrative, not computer models tweaked to yield the desired results.

And here we go again - wind

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From the Washington Emergency Management Division twitter feed:

Going to be on the island then.

Fake News - the government shutdown

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Cliff Mass runs some numbers and looks at the government shutdown and weather forecasting:

Is the U.S. Government Shutdown Hurting Weather Model Accuracy?
My phone has been ringing from media asking whether the partial government shutdown is degrading the skill of the National Weather Service model, the GFS.

What is driving this interest? First, a number of media outlets, including the well-known Washington Post Capital Weather Gang, have made the claim of worsening U.S. forecasts (see examples below).

20190116-cm01.png

20190116-cm02.png

These stories describe a situation in which important observations, the input data streams for numerical weather prediction, are not being used or are degraded because of changes in coding of data formats. As a result, the initialization (starting point) of U.S. global forecasts are degraded, lessening the skill of the predictions.

Our National Weather Service:

One of the first things I did was to check with some very well connected colleagues in NOAA and they confirmed these stories are nonsense. Yes, many NOAA/NWS employees are not working, but since the models are considering essential for national security some staff are working--monitoring the global forecast system doing whatever it takes to keep it working smoothly. Those NOAA/NWS staff are a dedicated lot!

And Cliff's conclusion:

I have looked at many other fields and the answer is the same: there is NO EVIDENCE that the initialization of the U.S. global model has been degraded as a result of the partial government shutdown.

In contrast, the predictions of the University of Washington regional prediction systems HAVE been hurt, because one of the important data streams we get from NOAA--the NOAA/NWS RAP model grids--has been cut off during the government closure. The shutdown is a disaster for weather prediction and weather research, but degradation of the U.S. global forecasts is really not an issue.

20190116-cm03.png

Sure, some localized issues but the overall big picture? Just fine. That old FAKE NEWS again...

About that cold weather

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Not seeing it here but it certainly hit the rest of the United States. Now, it is Europe's turn - from The London Daily Mail:

RED ALERT issued across Europe as heavy snow continues while a 16-year-old German-Australian boy is killed in an avalanche while skiing with his parents in Austria
Europe's snow chaos has deepened again with hundreds of people trapped after roads were buried by avalanches.

The highest red warnings are in place in Germany and Austria with up to six more feet of snow expected before the weekend.

At least 17 people have died amid the weather chaos including a 16-year-old German-Australian boy who was killed on a ski slope in Austria.

It is the jet stream - same as in the US:

Europe's cold weather is the result of the jet stream forcing cold air from the Arctic over the continent, but blocking it from the UK which has experienced mild conditions.

And, lest we forget, here is a headline from the UK Independent from Monday, March 20, 2000:

20190116-snow.jpg

Meanwhile, our sun is enjoying another day without sunspots:

20190116-sunspot.jpg

Two weather headlines - same website

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Eighteen years apart - same newspaper website:

How's that whole global warming climate change thing working out for you? Hmmmmm?

That cold snap - the midwest

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I had written about a potential cold snap happening two days ago. Looks like it is starting in the midwest - from Accuweather:

Major snowstorm to snarl travel from St. Louis to Cincinnati this weekend
Motorists along the Interstate 64 and 70 corridors of the Plains and Midwest can expect a slow and dangerous journey as a major snowstorm continues through Saturday evening.

For many areas, this will be a long-duration winter storm event that lasts more than 12 hours and perhaps as long as 48 hours in some cases. Over the Central states alone, snow will fall on more than a 1,000-mile-long west-to-east swath.

From The Weather Channel:

Winter Storm Gia Is Spreading Snow and Ice From the Plains and Midwest to the East This Weekend
Winter Storm Gia is spreading a swath of snow and some ice from parts of the Plains and Midwest to the mid-Atlantic, making travel a challenge in these areas this weekend.

An area of low pressure is tapping into cold air from Canada as it tracks eastward this weekend. There will be accumulating snow and some ice along and to the north of where the low tracks.

Snow continues to fall from the front range of Colorado eastward into Ohio. Snow will also begin to reach the ground in the mid-Atlantic later today. Some areas are seeing freezing rain and sleet mix in in parts of southern Missouri, southern Illinois and Kentucky.

So nothing for the Pacific Northwest as yet but the jet stream is definitely dipping down a lot more than usual.

From Cliff Mass:

Huge Storm Offshore
A huge, deep midlatitude cyclone is parked off our coast right now, with very strong winds over the Pacific and large easterly flow in the Columbia Gorge, the Strat of Juan de Fuca, and within east-west passes in the Cascades.

The sea level pressure forecast for 1 PM is impressive and huge, with the low center spread over much of the NE Pacific, with a deep 974 hPa low center due west of the CA/OR border.

The latest visible satellite image illustrates the large scale of the storm, a very long cold front, and the cold, unstable air circling into the low center.

20190108-storm.jpg

This has been a winter to remember for the wind. May head to the island a day earlier to watch.

Wheathur

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Talk about a bad spell of weather. From the Stanwood Camano News:

Parade of storms marching toward NW Washington
On the heels of short-but-powerful burst of wind and rain early Sunday morning, the foothills around the Stanwood-Camano region could see a dusting of snow Sunday night and Monday morning.

The National Weather Service office in Seattle issued a winter weather advisory for the central and southern Cascades and foothills through 10 a.m. with 1-4 inches of snow possible above 500 feet and 5-8 inches at pass level.

And this coming week:

However, the next storm arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. That blast will be followed by another low pressure system that will drop in from Alaska.

From the National Weather Service:

20190107-storms.jpg

Meanwhile, most of South Puget Sound is dealing with power outages:

20190107-power.jpg

Two headlines - arctic ice

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Each headline links to the parent story:

Hint - one headline is from a pop culture magazine and one is from a science based website.

If I lived in the mid-west, I would definitely be a storm chaser. Have always been fascinated by the weather and love big storms - always have, always will. One of the few disappointments on moving to the Pacific Northwest is the lack of really hard weather.

Check out Chasercon - nothing much on their website but they have some really good people giving presentations.

From CNN (note the bias in the headline):

Can Trump's new science adviser convince him that climate change is real?
In the eleventh hour of the outgoing Congress' term, the Senate confirmed one of President Trump's nominees that could have a profound impact on the future of our planet.

Kelvin Droegemeier, a meteorologist and former University of Oklahoma professor, was confirmed to be director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy on Wednesday-- a role commonly referred to as "science adviser" and the top scientific office in the country.

The position has sat vacant since Trump's presidency began nearly two years ago.

Droegemeier, an expert on extreme weather that has served as The University of Oklahoma's vice president of research since 2009 and has conducted atmospheric research for over 35 years. His extensive background in weather provides some hope among the science community that he can influence the administration, which has disputed the scientific community's view that the planet is warming and that humans are the primary cause of the change.

Emphasis mine - there is no consensus. The "scientific community" has a lot of different opinions about what is happening. The sun is the primary driver of our climate and it is slowing down / cooling off. The idea that humans are the primary cause of the modern warm period is pure hubris on our part.

Anyway, Droegemeier is a strong atmospheric scientist and is a numbers guy, not a narrative guy. He does not tweak the computer models to forecast what he wants, he tries to model what is actually happening. Great choice for the position!

Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass clues us in to what will be happening in the next week or so. Hint: Wind and Rain

Forget El Nino, StormFest is about to Hit the West Coast
Things often calm down after January 1 during El Nino years....but not this year...with the U.S. West Coast from central California to Washington State about to be pummeled by a series of storms. Rain, snow, wind? Plenty for everyone.

A view of the latest infrared satellite imagery shows an amazing line-up of one storm after another stretching way into the Pacific. A traffic jam of storms.

Let's examine our stormy future, using a series of sea level pressure forecasts from the UW WRF weather forecast models (solid lines are sea level pressure, shading in lower atmosphere temperature).

At 10 PM today, a strong low is just off the northern tip of Vancouver Island.

10AM Saturday brings an energetic low center into northern CA.

10 PM Sunday?   Another storm hits central Oregon!  And another system is in the wings.

I am not copying the images - you can go to Cliff's site and see the coming carnage. The bright side?

There is a silver lining of all this action of course:  it will provide an immense amount of water to fill our reservoirs and enhance our snowpack, a snowpack that is now in pretty decent shape (see latest summary below).  Water resources should be fine next summer.

Classical reference in the title: Turtles all the way down

Great compilation at The Daily Caller:

2018 SAW A GLOBAL REVOLT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES
Despite increasingly apocalyptic warnings from U.N. officials, 2018 has seen a number of high-profile defeats for policies aimed at fighting global warming. Politicians and voters pushed back at attempts to raise energy prices as part of the climate crusade.

It started in June with election of Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Ontario residents overwhelmingly voted Ford’s conservative coalition into power on a platform that included axing the Canadian province’s cap-and-trade program.

Ford said his first priority upon taking office would be to “cancel the Liberal cap-and-trade carbon tax.” Ford then joined a legal challenge led by Saskatchewan against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s policy of a central government-imposed carbon tax on provinces that don’t have their own.

Carbon tax opponents called Trudeau’s plan an attempt to “use the new tax to further redistribute income, which will increase the costs of this tax to the economy.”

Roughly ten thousand miles away in Australia another revolt was brewing. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull saw his power base crumble within days of failing to pass a bill aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

And in my own state, $45million was spent to push a carbon tax initiative spearheaded by our governor Jay Inslee:

However, Washington voters rejected the carbon tax measure in the November election despite Inslee’s support. It was the second time in two years that Washington voters rejected a carbon tax ballot initiative.

In the House of Representatives:

The November elections also saw the defeat of a group of Republican lawmakers in the House Climate Solutions Caucus. Among those defeated was caucus co-chair Florida GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who introduced carbon tax legislation in July.

In France:

It backfired. Angered over the new carbon taxes on fuel, tens of thousands of protesters, called “yellow vests” for the vests drivers are required to have in their cars, took to the streets calling for an end to the taxes and for Macron to resign.

Nice to see that the Normals are waking up. Global Warming - yes. We are heading out of a brief Modern Warm Period from 1960's to present. Every indication shows us heading into a very long period of cooling.

The idea that we humans are completely responsible for the warming is pure fscking hubris. We are simply not that big compared to all of the other natural variables - the biggest of which is our Sun which is a variable star. NASA's wonderful Space Weather website closes out this year with 2018 having 61% sunspot free:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)

Winter winds

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BOHICA - has a nice sort of Carribean sound to it. Actually, Bohica is an acronym for Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.

From Weather.com:

Gale Watch for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WIND...WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND MAY REACH GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

I know this is normal weather for this area and this time of year but sheesh...

Only in California

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From NBC News:

Jerry Brown: Climate change challenges as serious as those faced in World War II
California Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown warned that America and the rest of the world are falling behind in the fight against climate change and likened the challenge to fighting the Nazis in World War II.

In an interview for Sunday's "Meet the Press," the outgoing governor called on President Donald Trump to take the lead in addressing the issue. "Instead of worrying about tariffs, I'd like to see the president and the Congress invest tens of billions in renewable energy, in more-efficient batteries, to get us off fossil fuel as quickly as we can," Brown said.

"I would point to the fact that it took Roosevelt many, many years to get America willing to go into World War II and fight the Nazis. Well, we have an enemy, though different, but perhaps, very much devastating in a similar way. And we've got to fight climate change. And the president's got to lead on that."

The joke is that Brown was born in 1938 and is old enough to have remembered the real horror of this war. He is using the sacrifice of our brave soldiers for a narrative about something that does not exist.

Climate change - denying reality

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Way to go Chuck Todd - from Newsbusters:

Chuck Todd Bans 'Climate Deniers' from Climate Change Special
The Closing of the American Mind (Amazon / PDF file) was Allan Bloom's groundbreaking critique of "absolute understanding" in academia and the way that it undermines critical thinking. If Bloom were with us today, we could imagine him writing a sequel devoted to the way the climate change industry has sought to silence dissent.

Chuck Todd gave a stunning example of the phenomenon this morning in his introduction of a Meet the Press special edition on climate change. Todd quite literally announced that dissent would not be tolerated. Here was Todd:

"Just as important as what we are going to do this hour is what we're not going to do. We're not going to debate climate change, the existence of it. The Earth is getting hotter, and human activity is a major cause. Period. We're not going to give time to climate deniers. The science is settled, even if political opinion is not."

Quick: someone check—are we still in the USA? Or did "democracy die in darkness" and certain positions are verboten from public speech?

And now that Todd has a taste for banning dissent from liberal orthodoxy, the possibilities are endless! Will next week bring us: "Welcome to a Meet the Press special edition on immigration. The matter is settled: open borders are good. Period. We're not giving time to wall advocates."

Note: Todd also managed to slip in a gratuitous shot at President Trump, declaring that it's "extraordinarily difficult" to focus on one topic "in this era of Trump." Sounds like an admission of Trump Derangement Syndrome to us.

Again - Anthropogenic Global Warming is a political scam and not a scientific "crisis". All of the numbers they quote come from computer models. All of the physical sensors, sattelites and actual measurements tell a completely different story. The original hockey stick graph was busted as being bad science ten years after it was publlished. The reason it was not busted sooner is that Dr. Mann refused to release his data and his computer model (illegal as his work was funded from our tax dollars).

All indications point to an extended cooling period of several hundred years - we need to be preparing for this, not blowing money on something that is not happening.

Well crap - return of the crud

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Temp of 99.5°F and had very strange dreams last night. See how I feel today and tomorrow.

Yesterday's wind went up North. SnoPUD shows 92 Camano Island residents without power now. PSE is still showing 114 Maple Falls customers without power.

BC Hydro has this to say:

Lower Mainland, North VI and South VI
Thursday's windstorm was one of the most severe storms BC Hydro has experienced in years. All available crews continue to work until the remaining customers are restored. Due to the extent of the damage in the hardest hit areas, it will take several more days to restore power. These areas include Duncan, Nanaimo, Lake Cowichan and the Gulf Islands. We appreciate your patience and will continue to provide updates as they become available.

And their website shows more than 48,000 customers affected. Yikes!

They were not kidding about high wind warnings. Cliff Mass has an excellent writeup on this latest storm and he opens with this photo from  3PM:

20181222-goes17.jpg

Channeling my inner Bert the Turtle:

Stormy weather

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Looks like it is not over for this area. From Cliff Mass:

Another windstorm will hit the Northwest on Thursday
Mother nature is throwing everything in her cupboard against us this week. We had the first major Pacific cyclone/windstorm, lots of snow in the mountains, heavy mountain rains, a downslope windstorm event on the Olympics, and an EF1-2 tornado. Meteorological heaven for those who like a good storm.

But the strong storms are not over yet, and Thursday will bring another strong Pacific cyclone to our coast, with strong winds and power outages for many.

I will be on island - got a meeting that night. So far, no power outages and no damage at the house. One tree and a couple of limbs down at the farm.

A reminder from two days ago - Al Gore

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Carnival barker and multi-millionaire Al Gore has done very well for himself with the climate change hustle. Anthony Watts remindeds us of an event that happened ten years ago on December 14th, 2008:

Ten years ago, @AlGore predicted the North polar ice cap would be gone. Inconveniently, it’s still there
On December 14, 2008, former presidential candidate Al Gore predicted the North Polar Ice Cap would be completely ice free in five years. As reported on WUWT, Gore made the prediction to a German TV audience at the COP15 Climate Conference.

Al warned them that “the entire North ‘polarized’ cap will disappear in 5 years.”

Watch the video:

Here’s the polar ice cap extent today:

20181216-polarice.jpg

As you can see from the graph above, Arctic sea ice came nowhere close to disappearing during the summer minimum, and has rebounded to be within 2 standard deviations in the last few weeks.

Why does anyone still listen to him? Here is what our sun looks like today - the Planetary K-Index is a direct measure of solar output and it has been like this for the last two weeks:

20181216-k-index.gif

The word that comes to my mind is flatlined

Now this should be fun - the weather

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From the National Weather Service via weather.com:

Gale Warning for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY... * WIND AND WAVES...SOUTHEAST WIND RISING TO 25 TO 40 KNOTS, WIND WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY--EXCEPT COMBINDED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET AT 10 SECONDS AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. &&

Camano Island is one of the San Juan Islands. Should be interesting. Hope I wake up for this - heavy sleeper.

Snow prayers

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Great post from Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass:

When Snow Prayers Work Too Well
The boundary between meteorology and religion has always been an amorphous one, with considerable overlap.

In ancient times, Gods were considered the prime movers of weather events, and societies were always looking for the proper supplication to the get rain, snow, or whatever else they hoped for.

But even today, with all our technology and science, folks desperately hoping for a specific weather outcome frequently turn to praying to the powers up high.

And so it was, last Friday, when a group of snow-hungry skiers, egged on by the management of Snoqualmie Summit ski area, held a prayer vigil in North Bend at Compass Sports. They prayed, drank libations to certain weather gods, and attempted well-rehearsed weather dances.

And it worked.  It appears that the gods heard the plaintive cries, and snow has begun to fall in the Cascades.  Before the week is up, there will be feet of white stuff in the mountains and most ski areas will be open for business.

Heh - more at the site. Looks good for the ski season.

And Ed was right again

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Ed Vallee has a good string of predictions under his belt and he was right again. Prediction from 12/06/2018 (at the bottom of the post here). The headlines link to parent articles:

Falling Tree Kills One Person as Winter Storm Diego Leaves More than 385,000 Without Power

Snow totals: Raleigh-Durham area sees 'entire winter average in one day'

Global what?

Global warming in England

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Don Surber notes an article in The Telegraph:

Britain discovers coal
Coal is old plants and trees that over time became peat, then lignite, then coal. Scientists say the process takes millions of years. But it is natural. About 1,000 years ago, the Chinese began burning it to smelt copper. Marco Polo carried the idea to the West. Instead of burning wood, people burned coal and forests grew. The Dark Ages ended.

But governments know best. On March 14, 2016, Britain shut down its last coal mine. Canada shut down its last coal mine on November 22, 2001, six months before most workers qualified for a pension.

Learn computer coding, right?

Coal got the last laugh.

The Telegraph reported, "Britain's oldest coal-fired power plants prepared to fire up their hoppers for a price of almost £1,000 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday to avert a power shortfall as temperatures across the country plunge and wind power wanes.

"The cold snap ignited the winter’s first warning that Britain would run out of electricity unless idling coal plants ramp up to help meet demand for power.

"National Grid said on Monday evening that there was a 100pc probability that the lights would go out within 24 hours unless an extra 2GW of power capacity agreed to help meet demand."

I thought global warming took care of this.

More people die from cold than from heat. Time to re-evaluate your position and get your head out of the sand... It would be an interesting study to see just how much taxpayer money was wasted on this fight against plant food and the concept that we are powerful enough to fundamentally alter the climate of our home planet. Talk about hubris.

Just spotted this - news a bit closer to home - headline clicks through to article. Vallee is very good at what he does:

"Historic Storm" To Bury Southern Appalachians In Snow; Expect Massive Travel Disruptions

Our quiet sun

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Got a sunspot today but the sun has been spot-free for a record 203 days in 2018. From NASA's Spaceweather site:

A NEW SUNSPOT
Breaking a string of 9 spotless days, a new sunspot group is emerging near the sun's equator. Only 24 hours ago it was invisible. Now the sunspot contains almost a dozen dark cores and sprawls across more than 75,000 km of the solar surface. Click here to watch a movie of sunspot genesis. 

And here is the updated list of spotless days:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2018 total: 203 days (60%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

Quite the change - sunspot activity is a proxy for solar output. The sun drives our climate - not carbon dioxide. CO2 is plant food - without it, we would have no plants as it is a required component for photosynthesys.

Conditions in France

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Some headlines with links to original articles:

The yellow vests are a thing because France requires motorists to carry a high-viz vest for every driver and passenger in their vehicles (great idea actually - adding some to my vehicles' emergency kits) in case they break down or run out of fuel. The citizens are showing that they are drivers protesting the high fuel tax.

And of course, the United Nations steps in it:

Typical Marxist claptrap. They do not care about the climate - the latest report is built on computer models, not measured data. They just want their hands on the levers of power and will say anything and do anything to achieve this.

Heavy rains in California

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Orange County - the aftermath of the Hope Wildfire

And the rain is supposed to start up again tonight. Cliff Mass has more. The good news is that the reservoirs are nicely topped off except for Oroville which is being held low until repairs are completed.

Found this on my travels - very well done:

At the farm

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Driving past the Nooksack (native name meaning noisy water) river I could see that it was quite high. Checking my home weather station I can see that the temps went from 47°F at midnight up to 63°F right now. The Pineapple Express is on its way. About a tenth of an inch of rainfall so far but that is due to change really soon. This just came in about 15 minutes ago:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Seattle WA
229 PM PST Mon Nov 26 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of northwest Washington, including the following counties, Clallam, Skagit, and Whatcom.

* Through Tuesday evening

* Heavy rain has been falling and periods of heavy rain will continue through early Tuesday over the Olympics and north Cascades. This amount of rain will lead to the potential for flooding in those counties including the Bogachiel, Skagit and downstream points on the Nooksack Rivers later tonight or Tuesday.

In other words, it is winter in the Pacific Northwest. Cliff Mass has all the circles and arrows.

Unpacking the van and starting some pot roast for dinner.

From Investor's Business Daily:

Here's One Global Warming Study Nobody Wants You To See
A new study published in a peer-reviewed journal finds that climate models exaggerate the global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. If these findings hold true, it's huge news. No wonder the mainstream press is ignoring it.

In the study, authors Nic Lewis and Judith Curry looked at actual temperature records and compared them with climate change computer models. What they found is that the planet has shown itself to be far less sensitive to increases in CO2 than the climate models say. As a result, they say, the planet will warm less than the models predict, even if we continue pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

From Real Clear Markets:

Did You Know the Greatest Two-Year Global Cooling Event Just Took Place?
Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred? From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998. If someone is tempted to argue that the reason for recent record cooling periods is that global temperatures are getting more volatile, it's not true. The volatility of monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only two-thirds what it was from 1880 to 1999.

Another one from Investor's Business Daily:

Another Global Warming Study Casts Doubt On Media's Climate Change Fairy Tale
With climate change activists and the big media still in high dudgeon over President Trump pulling out of the Paris Climate Deal, yet another study shows no acceleration in global warming for the last 23 years. Piece by piece, the church of global warming is being dismantled.

The University of Alabama-Huntsville study, conducted by climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider, shows that not only is the temperature rising far more slowly than predicted, but that the Earth's atmosphere appears to be less sensitive to changing CO2 levels than previously assumed.

And lastly, again, from Investor's Business Daily:

Global Warming: Who Are The Deniers Now?
Global warming is "settled science," we hear all the time. Those who reject that idea are "deniers." But as new evidence trickles out from peer-reviewed science studies, the legs beneath the climate change hypothesis — that the earth was doing just fine until carbon-dioxide spewing human beings came along — is increasingly wobbly.

A new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience purports to support action by global governments to reduce carbon dioxide output in order to lower potential global warming over the next 100 years or so. But what it really does is undercut virtually every modern argument for taking radical action against warming.

Why? The study admits that the 12 major university and government models that have been used to predict climate warming are faulty.

"We haven't seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models," said Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford and one of the authors of the study. "We haven't seen that in the observations."

And, of course, he's quite right. As we've noted here numerous times, the much-feared "global warming" trend seems to have halted somewhere around 1998. We know this is true because satellite temperature readings — the most accurate temperature gauge since it takes in the entire atmosphere, not just parts of it — show there's been virtually no change.

I find it specifically telling that the skeptical reports are showing up at respected financial websites. The overall effects of general warming or cooling trends are - at heart - economic. People who do economics on a daily basis are not stupid and they need uncensored and unbiased data to operate.

The United Nations is a bunch of corrupt bureaucrats. Take it's environment chief, Erik Solheim for example. From The Guardian:

UN environment chief resigns after frequent flying revelations
The UN’s environment chief, Erik Solheim, has resigned following severe criticism of his global travels and internal rule-breaking which led some nations to withhold their funding.

The Guardian understands Solheim was asked to resign by the UN secretary general, António Guterres. Sources at the UN Environment Programme (Unep) said that countries unhappy with Solheim’s conduct were holding back tens of millions of dollars, threatening a financial crisis at the body.

A draft internal UN audit leaked to the Guardian in September found Solheim had spent almost $500,000 (£390,000) on air travel and hotels in just 22 months, and was away 80% of the time. The audit said this was a “reputation risk” for an organisation dedicated to fighting climate change.

A UN staff union leader called some of the revelations “mind-blowing” and a prominent climate scientist accused Solheim of “obscene CO2 hypocrisy”.

I ranted about the corrupt climate scientists at the end of my post on Brazil yesterday. This just underscores what I was saying. Self perpetuating and zero accountability. We have about 200 years of very accurate climate data (ships record weather conditions / sea temperature several times/day). You put this climate data into their computer models and the results have no bearing on what is happening outside now. The (in)famous hockey stick of M. Mann  was based on a model so flawed that you can put in statistically random numbers and the output will be a hockey stick.

I love it - Brazil

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Now that would be a fun place to visit now that they have a sane government in power. From Watts Up With That:

New Brazilian Foreign Minister: Climate Change is a Plot by Cultural Marxists
The new right wing Brazilian government is demonstrating they have no fear of shooting green leftist sacred cows.

Brazil’s new foreign minister believes climate change is a Marxist plot
Ernesto Araújo has called climate science ‘dogma’ and bemoaned the ‘criminalisation’ of red meat, oil and heterosexual sex

Jonathan Watts Global environment editor
Fri 16 Nov 2018 04.13 AEDT

Brazil’s president-elect Jair Bolsonaro has chosen a new foreign minister who believes climate change is part of a plot by “cultural Marxists” to stifle western economies and promote the growth of China.

Ernesto Araújo – until recently a mid-ranking official who blogs about the “criminalisation” of red meat, oil and heterosexual sex – will become the top diplomat of South America’s biggest nation, representing 200 million people and the greatest and most biodiverse forest on Earth, the Amazon.

His appointment, confirmed by Bolsonaro on Wednesday, is likely to send a chill through the global climate movement.

Emphasis mine - no sh*t sherlock. I love it - someone who calls a spade a spade.

Yes, we have been going through a modern warming period that started around 1970 but we are coming out of it and entering what could be a significant 300+ year cooling period. This is serious and all these morons are doing is flying around to various luxury locations to have conferences where they do a massive circle-jerk and confirm each others false computer models. These models fail to coorelate with the measured data, they cannot forecast, they cannot hindcast. They are useless.

Our variable sun - global cooling

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I have been saying for a long time that the whole campaign demonizing carbon dioxide and seeking to limit industrial development is a political manouver and not a scientific one. Our climate is naturally variable and to think that us humans can have a significant effect is pure blind hubris. We are simply do not have that big a footprint.

Now it seems that our sun is entering a major period of coolinng off and the effects are becoming very obvious - here are a couple instances:

From NASA's Space Weather:

The Chill of Solar Minimum
The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

And, wonder of wonders, Dr. Mlynczak is talking about actual observed data and not the output of some dodgy computer model:

These results come from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas at the very top of the atmosphere–a layer researchers call “the thermosphere.”

Much more at the site - this is some very well thought out and interesting science.
Next up - from Boston MA station WBZ:

Will The Snowiest Decade Continue?
Despite the snow blitz of 2015, many baby boomers still insist that, overall, we don’t get the harsh bitter cold and deep snowy winters like we did in the good ole days.

Weather records prove that just isn’t the case and despite the ongoing claims that snows are becoming rare and hurting winter sports, this millennium has been a blessing to snow lovers and winter sports enthusiasts.

Just as the Saffir-Simpson and Fujita Scales were devised to categorize hurricanes and tornadoes, the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) was created by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National Weather Service to rank high-impact Northeast storms. This scale has 5 categories including extreme, crippling, major, significant and notable. In addition to meteorological measurements, the index uses population information which provides an indication of a storm’s impacts on society. The NESIS scores are a function of the amount of snow, the area affected by the snowstorm and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over 10 for extreme storms.

And here is the NESIS chart. Each bar represents ten years starting at 1958 to present:

20181116-nesis.jpg

Finally, it is not just cold in the Eastern USA - from David Middleton writing at Watts Up With That:

Antarctic temperatures recently plunged close to the theoretically coldest achievable on Earth!
This story was previously discussed here at WUWT… But, why wasn’t this headline news in the Washington Post, New York Times, etc.? Yes… That was a rhetorical question.

Ultralow Surface Temperatures in East Antarctica From Satellite Thermal Infrared Mapping: The Coldest Places on Earth
T. A. Scambos, G. G. Campbell, A. Pope, T. Haran, A. Muto, M. Lazzara, C. H. Reijmer, M. R. van den Broeke
First published: 25 June 2018

[…]

Plain Language Summary
The lowest measured air temperature on Earth is −89.2 °C (−129 F) on 23 July 1983, observed at Vostok Station in Antarctica (Turner et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012104). However, satellite data collected during the Antarctic polar night during 2004–2016 reveal a broad region of the high East Antarctic Plateau above Vostok that regularly reaches snow surface temperatures of −90 °C and below. These occur in shallow topographic depressions near the highest part of the ice sheet, at 3,800 to 4,050‐m elevation. Comparisons with nearby automated weather stations suggest that air temperatures during these events are near −94 ± 4 °C or about −138 F. Ultracold conditions (below −90 °C) occur more frequently when the Antarctic polar vortex is strong. This temperature appears to be about as low as it is possible to reach, even under clear skies and very dry conditions, because heat radiating from the cold clear air is nearly equal to the heat radiating from the bitterly cold snow surface.

The paper in question can be found here: Ultralow Surface Temperatures... Dr. Middleton then goes on to cite two other papers on low temperatures in the Antarctic.

Global cooling is at our doorstep and there is little we can do about it. When I think of the billions of dollars that have been completely wasted on this - money that came out of our wallets and could have been put to better use (electricity and clean water in 3rd world villages for example) it makes me sick.

Ho Li Crap - Mike Olbinsky

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Mike is one of the better weather photographers out there and his latest is truly epic:

Tip of the hat to Cliff Mass for the link. He offers a nice explanation for some of the phenomena in the video.

About that global warming

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It's from all the greenhouse gasses that we, as an industralized people, are pumping out into the atmosphere. Our sun is a fixed star and has nothing to do with the upcoming global warming cooling. From Dr. Tony Philips at NASA's Space Weather website:

The Chill of Solar Minimum
The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

Quite the nip in the air here - thinking of building a fire to warm the house up a bit. I have a heat pump running in my new DaveCave so it is nice and comfortable up there but down in the main room where I am working, there is a definite chill in the air. Plus, I can use it to get rid of the papers I am tossing.

Lest we forget - Typhoon Mangkhut

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Hurricane Florence is not the only big storm on our planet. Typhoon Mangkhut is dealing devastation to the Philippines and China. Three headlines with links:

Prayers going out to these poor people. The casinos will be fine - they were built to withstand this sort of weather. The people who make their living on the water - fishing, transport - not so much. Rebuilding will take a long time. President Trump's fault of course...

Hurricane Florence - fake news

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Two great examples of fake news on the Hurricane Florence reporting. From Anthony Watts

First:

Hilarious! @weatherchannel reporter fakes intensity of #HurricaneFlorence wind – gets caught
You can’t make this stuff up. The Weather Channel typically sends a reporter to hurricane landfalls to file live reports. Hurricane Florence is no exception. However, in this case although it appears in the video the reporter can barely stand up in the wind, but when the camera zooms out, his fakery is revealed.

Funny video - the reporter is standing, leaning to one side braced with all his strength and in the background, two guys are talking a pleasent stroll unaffected by the wind. Scroll down for the second video - much better quality

And Second:

Another #fakenews video @CNN Anderson Cooper hypes #HurricaneFlorence flooding – meanwhile firefighters spoof TV news
Yesterday we reported on the hilarious antics of Mike Seidel of The Weather Channel in his performance trying to stand up in wind while others strolled casually by in the background. That video has gone viral. Here’s another example of how media tries to make the storm look worse than it actually was.

CNN’s Anderson Cooper was reporting live on the scene on a flooded road. And for effect, he stands in a ditch at the side of the road, about 3 feet lower.

A couple of still photos taken from a different perspective shows what they were doing. Be sure to scroll down to watch the firefighter video - they had a lot of fun with this...

Great visualization of storm surge

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