Recently in Climate Category

Guess which one is which - climate scientists always lie. The actual numbers do not back up their computer models so they have to continually cry doom and gloom otherwise their funding dries up.

First - some real numbers from The Times of India:

Govt revises foodgrain output to record 275.68 million tonnes
India's foodgrain production for the 2016-17 crop year is estimated at record 275.68 million tonnes. The government on Wednesday revised its previous figures upward by 2.3 million tonnes and came at the new figure which is over 4 per cent higher than the previous record production achieved in the country during 2013-14.

A lot of factors contributed to this record but an increase in available plant food did not hurt (that plant food being CO2)

Second - some fake numbers from Phys.Org:

Climate change will cut crop yields: study
Climate change will have a negative effect on key crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, according to a major scientific report out Tuesday that reviewed 70 prior studies on global warming and agriculture.

Experts analyzed previous research that used a variety of methods, from simulating how crops will react to temperature changes at the global and local scale, to statistical models based on historical weather and yield data, to artificial field warming experiments.

All these methods "suggest that increasing temperatures are likely to have a negative effect on the global yields of wheat, rice and maize," said the report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal.

In other words, they scanned the available literature and were able to find 70 papers that agreed with their preconceived notions. They then cherry-picked this data and regurgitated it in their own paper which sustains the narrative. This is not science, it is a couple of six year olds playing in a sandbox.

An interesting paper from OMICS International:

New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model
A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed by the atmosphere (i.e. ≈ 158 W m-2), thus requiring a re-examination of the underlying Greenhouse theory. We present here a new investigation into the physical nature of the atmospheric thermal effect using a novel empirical approach toward predicting the Global Mean Annual near-surface equilibrium Temperature (GMAT) of rocky planets with diverse atmospheres. Our method utilizes Dimensional Analysis (DA) applied to a vetted set of observed data from six celestial bodies representing a broad range of physical environments in our Solar System, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve relationships (models) suggested by DA are explored via non-linear regression analyses that involve dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. Our empirical model has also fundamental implications for the role of oceans, water vapour, and planetary albedo in global climate. Since produced by a rigorous attempt to describe planetary temperatures in the context of a cosmic continuum using an objective analysis of vetted observations from across the Solar System, these findings call for a paradigm shift in our understanding of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ as a fundamental property of climate.

Emphasis mine - in other words, the so-called Greenhouse effect with CO2 is actually a natural phenomon and has zero bearing on any climate change.

Global Warming

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Presented with apologies to Leonard Cohen:

From Minnesotans For Global Warming - YouTube Channel - hat tip Gerard

My big gripe about Anthropogenic Global Warming is that all of the presented information is derived from computer models. What temperature data is presented is often cherry-picked or it has been "adjusted". This is a common practice and is deceitful. Here is a perfect example - from The Daily Caller:

REPORT: $127 Million Climate Supercomputer No Better Than ‘Using A Piece Of Paper’
A new study using an expensive climate supercomputer to predict the risk of record-breaking rainfall in southeast England is no better than “using a piece of paper,” according to critics.

“The Met Offices’s model-based rainfall forecasts have not stood up to empirical tests and do not seem to give better advice than observational records,” Dr. David Whitehouse argued in a video put together by the Global Warming Policy Forum.

Whitehouse, a former BBC science editor, criticized a July 2017 Met Office study that claimed a one-in-three of parts of England and Wales see record rainfall each winter, largely due to man-made climate change.

Using its $127 million supercomputer, the Met Office found in “south east England there is a 7 percent chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter” and “a 34 percent chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter” when other parts of Britain were considered.

“We have used the new Met Office supercomputer to run many simulations of the climate, using a global climate model,” Met Office scientist Vikki Thompson said of the study.

The Met Office commissioned the study in response to a series of devastating floods that ravaged Britain during the 2013-2014 winter. Heavy winter rains caused $1.3 billion in damage in the Thames River Valley.

Scientists said supercomputer modeling could have predicted the flooding. Thompson said the supercomputer “simulations provided one hundred times more data than is available from observed records.”

Models simply do not work for climate - our planet is too dynamic and complex. The devastating floods were caused by two factors. The first was more rain than usual. The second was the fact that England is riddled with a very old system of canals that were used for heavy transportation during the 1800's and early 1900's until rail became widespread. These canals irrevocably altered the drainage of the watersheds but as long as the canals were dredged on a regular basis, everything was just fine. Unfortunately, regular dredging was not continued, these canals silted up and lost their ability to carry the water.

Fortunately, in 2012, England's Canal & River Trust (CRT) said that it will increase spending on dredging over the next ten years.

Hot time in the old town tonight

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Going to get very hot later this week - from Cliff Mass:

Superheat Coming to the Northwest This Week
If you were thinking about buying a fan this summer, I would hit the stores soon.

If you were thinking of picking up an AC unit, I would take care of that right away.

Big heat is coming to the Northwest later this week, with record breaking temperatures for many, particularly on Thursday, the warmest day. We are talking about mid to upper 90s F around Puget Sound, and 105-110F near Portland.

The critters have places where the shade is deep and cool so not worrying about them too much. Will keep an eye out and set up a sprinkler if it looks like they are getting heat stress.

Christ on a corn dog - just how irrelevant is this guy - from The Washington Examiner:

Bill Nye: Older people need to 'die' out before climate science can advance
Bill Nye specifically targeted the elderly this week as he spoke out against climate change deniers, saying that climate science will start to advance when old people start to "age out," according to a report.

The "Science Guy" said that generationally, the majority of climate change deniers are older.

"Climate change deniers, by way of example, are older. It's generational," Nye told the Los Angeles Times. Nye said that he is calling them out with "due respect," acknowledging that he is "now one of them."

"We're just going to have to wait for those people to 'age out,' as they say," Nye went on, adding that "age out" is a euphemism for "die." "But it'll happen, I guarantee you — that'll happen."

The problem here is that it is very easy to indoctrinate young people - older people have really good bullshit detectors and use them regularly. When the recorded data fails to back up the claims of the warmers, the tendency is to treat the warmers with a healthy dose of skepticism. They hate that as they know that their "studies" are a scam.

The alt.energy bubble

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A couple of headlines regarding alternative energy - a lot of the subsidy programs are ending. Shoveling taxpayer money to foreign companies in order to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels (of which we have a great abundance) and production of CO2 (otherwise known as plant food).

The last link is especially interesting. Any research done with public funding (Government grants, etc...) is in the public domain and the general public has the right to see the data, to see the work and to see the results at no cost. Most of today's climate research is based on computer models and recreations of climate history. Whenever these have been examined, they have been shown to be biased towards rising temperatures - the so-called Hockey Stick of Michael Mann is a perfect example. Totally discredited.

It is no wonder that the climate scientists are backpedaling as fast as they can and trying to keep their data to themselves - they know that there is no correlation between their numbers and the real world.

Sir Richard Branson seems to be putting words in President Trump's mouth - from Yahoo News / The Guardian:

Trump regrets 'bizarre mistake' of Paris climate pullout, Branson claims
Donald Trump regrets the “bizarre mistake” of withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement, Sir Richard Branson has said. The British billionaire also urged the president to help phase out the ailing US coal industry.

Speaking in Brooklyn on Friday, the Virgin Group founder said businesses and cities were firmly behind a transition to low-carbon energy, which made Trump’s decision to exit the Paris deal “very, very strange”.

“With climate change, it’s America first and our beautiful globe last, and that seems incredibly sad,” said Branson. “I’ve got a feeling that the president is regretting what he did. Maybe his children and son in law [adviser Jared Kushner] are saying, ‘Look, I told you so.’ Hopefully there is a positive change of mind.”

The wheels are coming off the global climate scam and the progressives are trying every trick in the book to forestall the crash. For a really interesting article on this (with links to inconvenient data), cehck out the following: Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: “Not A Valid Representation Of Reality… Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data”

Too many of the proponents for global warming use "data" excreted from their computer models. Very few of them actually stick their heads outdoors and look at what is happening - inconvenient numbers for them if they did.

E. M. Smith has one such metric:

Mid-July & No Tomatoes
One of the first things that tipped me off to the temperature record being a bit bogus (“over adjusted” to put it kindly…) was my tomatoes. Were I live, it is marginal for many types of tomatoes. They must be consistently above 50 F at night for fruit set. When I first moved here, it was “iffy” on the tomatoes. With proper placement, some black mulch, etc. etc. you can reliably grow them. Simple “garden square” with medium sun exposure and white cement border, well, you get late tomatoes, but don’t expect to be eating any on the 4th of July.

Now IF “Global Warming” had validity, it ought to have been getting easier to grow a tomato crop each year and I ought to have been harvesting earlier. It wasn’t… So when I looked at GIStemp (the NASA GISS temperature fabrication program) I adopted the “tag line” of “GIStemp- Dumber than a Tomato!”

I got a nice crop, modestly early, about 1998 and using some Russian low temperature selected vines. Other cherry tomatoes and some heirlooms did OK that year, but mostly harvested a bit late.

Some more historical crop records and this money shot:

Now my Dad always taught me that you knew you had timed your garden well (In Iowa and Central valley California, at least) if you had fresh corn on the cob and ripe tomatoes on the 4th of July. It’s now a couple of week past that.

Not only do I NOT have any ripe tomatoes; but I have no tomato set at all. I’ve inspected the vine. Lots of flowers. Some places flowers had been but had blossom drop when fruit set failed. It is NOT a warm summer when you can’t even get fruit SET by July 4th…

Anecdotal? Yes. Can’t say what limit of fruit set temperature is for this variety? Yes. Yet any ‘special’ set temperatures are to the cold side… it is the 50 F that is the “normal” and I don’t know of any that are selected for a warmer fruit set temperature. So, IMHO, this is a valid indicator.

It just is not warmer. I’ve had about 30 years of growing tomatoes here, on and off. Maybe 40 if you count “near here” about 15 miles away a bit closer to the mountains. Had we been warming for 30 to 40 years the “just barely enough” fruit set temperatures would have turned into “reliable” by now. Instead I’ve got “complete failure to set”. There are pollinators around (at least 2 kinds of bees). Evenings have felt quite cool.

Not warming, we have been having a 19+ year cooling trend and the output of our sun is very very quiet. I would prepare for an extended period of cooling, not warming.

Great idea - a public debate

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The science on climate change is not "settled" (scientific theories are never settled), the 70% consensus was a cooked number from one researcher in Australia and roundly debunked within the first week of publication. Time to air out the facts and to step away from the models that warmists seem to love so much (as their results fit their narratives as opposed to those pesky facts).

From Reuters:

EPA chief wants scientists to debate climate on TV
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is in the early stages of launching a debate about climate change that could air on television – challenging scientists to prove the widespread view that global warming is a serious threat, the head of the agency said.

The move comes as the administration of President Donald Trump seeks to roll back a slew of Obama-era regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, and begins a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement - a global pact to stem planetary warming through emissions cuts.

"There are lots of questions that have not been asked and answered (about climate change)," EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt told Reuters in an interview late on Monday.

"Who better to do that than a group of scientists... getting together and having a robust discussion for all the world to see."

Nice that this is coming on the heels of Michael "Hockey Stick" Mann's wonderful court trial where he is being held in contempt. Hide the decline indeed.

Climate Denial

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A great essay from Ted Nordhaus:

Demons Under Every Rock
The Ever-Expanding Definition of Climate Denial

Ted leads in with a story about a clinical case of false memories shared among a group of people and then launches into this:

This disturbing and memorable story has kept coming back to me the last few years, as a cadre of climate activists, ideologically motivated scholars, and sympathetic journalists have started labeling an ever-expanding circle of people they disagree with climate deniers.

Climate change, of course, is real and demons are not. But in the expanding use of the term “denier,” the view of the climate debate as a battle between pure good and pure evil, and the social dimensions of the narrative that has been constructed, some quarters of the climate movement have begun to seem similarly unhinged.

Not so long ago, the term denier was reserved for right-wing ideologues, many of them funded by fossil fuel companies, who claimed that global warming either wasn’t happening at all or wasn’t caused by humans. Then it was expanded to so-called “lukewarmists,” scientists and other analysts who believe that global warming is happening and is caused by humans, but either don’t believe it will prove terribly severe or believe that human societies will prove capable of adapting without catastrophic impacts.

As frustration grew after the failure of legislative efforts to cap US emissions in 2010, demons kept appearing wherever climate activists looked for them. In 2015, Bill McKibben argued in the New York Times that anyone who didn’t oppose the construction of the Keystone pipeline, without regard to any particular stated view about climate change, was a denier.

Then in December 2015, Harvard historian and climate activist Naomi Oreskes expanded the definition further. “There is also a new, strange form of denial that has appeared on the landscape of late,” Oreskes wrote in the Guardian, “one that says that renewable sources can’t meet our energy needs. Oddly, some of these voices include climate scientists, who insist that we must now turn to wholesale expansion of nuclear power.”

Oreskes took care not to mention the scientists in question, for that would have been awkward. They included Dr. James Hansen, who gave the first congressional testimony about the risks that climate change presented the world, and has been a leading voice for strong, immediate, and decisive global action to address climate change for almost three decades. The others—Kerry Emanuel, Ken Caldeira, and Tom Wigley—are all highly decorated climate scientists with long and well-established histories of advocating for climate action. The four of them had travelled to the COP21 meeting in Paris that December to urge the negotiators and NGOs at the meeting to embrace nuclear energy as a technology that would be necessary to achieve deep reductions in global emissions.

Much more at the site - author bio: Nordhaus is a leading global thinker on energy, environment, climate, human development, and politics. He is the co-founder and executive director of the Breakthough Institute and a co-author of An Ecomodernist Manifesto.

I was happy that President Trump pulled us out of this non-binding non-treaty. An interview with Drieu Godefridi at Friends of Science - Calgary:

Outcome of the Paris Accord: a re-founding act of American democracy?
Interview with Drieu Godefridi, Belgian philosopher, jurist, author of “Le GIEC etMort; Vive le Science” (The IPCC is Dead: Long Live Science) published in English under the title “The IPCC: A Scientific Body?” Godefridi discusses his view that the exit of the Trump Administration from the Paris Agreement is a sensible return to American democracy. Godefridi traces the incremental takeover of public policy by globalists and minority view activists using unelected, unaccountable politically-rife bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the guise of ‘science’ to foist ever-more economically detrimental demands on the West. These groups use contrived morality and guilt to affect a bank hold-up, the trigger-about-to-be-pulled being the ‘climate catastrophe.’

Some thoughts:

The Paris Accord marks the apotheosis, not of “globalism,” but of a particular version of globalism, which one should rather qualify as socialist. Indeed, let us recall the actual content of the Paris Agreement! What does it foresee? Essentially, two things: the drastic reduction of CO2 emissions in the West, right away, with the possibility for states such as China – the world’s largest CO2 emitter – to continue to increase emissions to 2030, with no requirement whatsoever to reduce emissions. The second essential component of “Paris” is the Green Fund, which provides for the transfer of $ 100 billion a year from the West to the rest of the world. “Paris” is therefore, first and foremost, the triumph of what was called “support for the Third World” in the 70s and 80s, that is to say, a massive and permanent transfer of wealth from the West to the rest of the world.

And the sheer breadth of the corruption:

What we have been seeing for the past two decades, in the areas of climate, gender theory, immigration and terrorism, and so on, is that activist minority ideologues have confiscated democratic debate. By acting at the international level, they have an enormous advantage. As soon as such an unaccountable international body has seized a cause, its standards prevail over national parliaments! When gender theory was enshrined in its most radical version in 2011 by a Council of Europe Convention, it became virtually impossible to dislodge it. When, in cases such as HIRSI (2012), the European Courts devoted the “no border” ideology, it became almost impossible for the national ministers who wished to defend their own borders to do so. Examples that come to mind are Francken in Belgium, his British and Austrian counterpart, or the countries of the Visegrád group – a handful able to oppose it effectively. But it is in the domain of climate that this confiscation of democratic debate is the most masterful, reaching a kind of virtuosity.

A lot more at the site - I am just touching the surface. A very articulate analysis of what we are up against.

About that global warming stuff

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From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Snow cancels Yukon-Alaska bike race for 1,300 riders
The 25th-annual Kluane Chilkat International Bike Relay has been cancelled due to snow at the starting line, affecting about 1,300 riders who were set to begin the race Saturday morning.

This is the first time the race has been cancelled.

"The race was cancelled because not only snow and slush in the upper elevations in the summit legs, but right here in Haines Junction at the start," said Mike Kramer, race coordinator.

The comments are a fun read from both sides of the catastrophic fence.

YES! - the Department of Energy

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From The Daily Caller:

DOE Eliminates ‘Unnecessary’ Office Promoting International Clean Energy Policies
The Department of Energy (DOE) nixed one of its many duplicative foreign climate change offices Thursday to streamline the agency responsible for managing the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Nearly a dozen members of the Office of International Climate and Technology were released so the Trump administration could cut bloat from within the DOE. The office was opened in 2010 to help allies across the world kick-start technology reducing greenhouse gasses.

Employees in the office are part of the so-called Clean Energy Ministerial, a small collective of polluting nations such as China and India. Their sole focus was to develop technology fighting man-made climate change.

The department is “looking for ways to consolidate the many duplicative programs that currently exist within DOE,” a spokesman for the agency told reporters, adding that the Office of International Climate and Technology would close as well.

A lot more at the site - the DOE already has two other offices that deal with international climate change. This action is just getting rid of duplicate bureaucracies.

Ho Li Crap - going to be a wet time

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Serious rain heading our way - from Cliff Mass:

Midwinter Moisture in June
Tomorrow is going to be an unusual June day over the Northwest. An extraordinary plume of moisture that stretches across the the Pacific is now approaching our shores, and mid-winter amounts of rain will spread over the region. A satellite image of the amount of water vapor in the upper atmosphere shows a "river "of moisture stretching from the southwest north Pacific to our coast.

Here is the forecast for conditions at 8:00AM tomorrow:

20170614-wet.jpg

Looking at several inches of precipitation.

News you can use - Solar Minima

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Our sun is a variable star and it has cooled off a lot from time to time - the Maunder Minimum, the little ice age, the Dalton Minimum. We may well be headed for a new cold period.

This link goes to a PDF document that covers some essentials if this happens: Solar “Grand Minima” Preparedness Plan

Another global warming catastrophe

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When will it ever stop - the Earth is doomed. From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Climate change researchers cancel expedition because of climate change
A team of scientists had to abandon an expedition through Hudson Bay because of hazardous ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland caused by climate change.

About 40 scientists from five Canadian universities were scheduled to use the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for the first leg of a 133-day expedition across the Arctic. It's part of a $17-million, four-year project led by the University of Manitoba that looks at both the effects of climate change as well as public health in remote communities.

Their trip began May 25 in Quebec City, but due to bad ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland, the icebreaker was diverted from its course to help ferries and fishing boats navigate the Strait of Belle Isle, said David Barber, a climate change scientist at the University of Manitoba and leader of the Hudson Bay expedition called BaySys.

A bit more:

'Very severe ice conditions'
According to the Canadian Coast Guard, the conditions were unlike anything ever seen before in the area.

"It was just extreme ice conditions that required everything that we've got in order to make sure we were able to provide the services," said Julie Gascon, the coast guard's assistant commissioner for the central and Arctic region.

Now, where were we? The Science is Settled? How about the 19+ year decline in atmospheric air temperature? How about the extremely low solar flux?

My advice? Prepare for an extended period of cooling - another Maunder Minimum. We are overdue.

Wonderful analysis that puts Anthropogenic Global Warming where it should be - in the dustbin of history.

Check out the Global Warming Petition Project

ABSTRACT
A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases during the 20th and early 21st centuries have produced no deleterious effects upon Earth's weather and climate. Increased carbon dioxide has, however, markedly increased plant growth. Predictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocarbon use and minor greenhouse gases like CO2 do not conform to current experimental knowledge. The environmental effects of rapid expansion of the nuclear and hydrocarbon energy industries are discussed.

Read the whole thing - they cover all bases and thoroughly dismantle all of the AGW talking points.

Climate Change - Dr. John Coleman

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Dr. Coleman founded The Weather Channel. He is a professional meteorologist (since retired). Here he is with CNN's Brian Stelter:

CNN = Fake News

Seriously?¿?¿

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From the National Weather Service:

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK
AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS QUITE
COOL AND UNSTABLE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PlUMMET CLOSE TO 5000 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. ON TUESDAY...PARADISE
ON MOUNT RAINIER HIT 70 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

THOSE PLANNING ANY TRAVEL INTO THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
PARTICULARLY HIKERS AND CLIMBERS. EVEN MOTORISTS CROSSING THE
HIGHER PASSES SUCH AS WASHINGTON...CHINOOK...CAYUSE AND WHITE
PASSES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MORE WINTER LIKE DRIVING CONDITIONS.

Snow? We sure could use some of that global warming right now...

Red Team Blue Team - the EPA

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Wonderful interview of Scott Pruitt - President Trump's pick for head of EPA.

Audio here: EPA’s Pruitt: Establish ‘Red Team, Blue Team’ of scientists to examine climate risk of CO2

Partial transript:

EPA ADMINISTRATOR PRUITT: “What the American people deserve, I think, is a true legitimate, peer reviewed, objective, transparent discussion about CO2. And, you know there was a great article that was in the Wall Street Journal, about a month or so ago, Joel, called ‘Red Team/Blue Team’ by Steve Koonin, a scientist I believe at NYU. And, he talked about the importance of having a red team of scientist and a blue team of scientists and those scientists get in a room and ask what do we know, what don’t we know, and what risk does it pose to health, the United States, and the world with respect to this issue of CO2. The American people need to have that type of honest open discussion, and it’s something we hope to provide as part of our leadership.”

The Koonin article is here: A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science but it is behind a paywall...

Good observation by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today:

To fight climate change, start with Leonardo DiCaprio's private jet lifestyle
So last week President Trump pulled out of the Paris climate agreement — to the extent that one can pull out of an agreement that’s not actually legally binding, anyway. This left some people upset.

But if climate change is really such a crisis, and if sacrifice on our part is needed to stop it, then why aren’t we seeing more sacrifice from people who think it’s a problem?

That’s what one person asked on Twitter: "What if climate scientists decided, as a group, to make their conferences all virtual? No more air travel. What a statement!” And what if academics in general — most of whom think climate change is a big deal — started doing the same thing to make an even bigger statement?

It would be big. And what if politicians and celebrities stopped jetting around the world — often on wasteful private jets instead of flying commercial with the hoi polloi — as a statement of the importance of fighting climate change?

And what if politicians and celebrities lived in average-sized houses, to reduce their carbon footprints?  What if John Kerry, who was much put out by Trump’s action, gave up his yacht-and-mansions lifestyle?

What if, indeed? One reason why so many people don’t take climate change seriously is that the people who are constantly telling us it’s a crisis never actually act like it’s a crisis. They’re all-in for sacrifices by other people, but never seem to make much in the way of sacrifices themselves.

He has a point there - Glen closes with four proposals on how to implement a real climate change program. Liberal tears will be copious.

The Paris Accord

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Heh:

20170602-paris.jpg

Great reading - Trump announced that he was consigning the Paris Accord to the dustbin of history (where it rightly belongs) and the usual idiots are braying at the top of their lungs:

This last  one is sad because The Weather Channel was 50% founded by Dr. John Coleman - a professional meteorologist who is very outspoken about climate change - it always does and humans have little impact on it. Climate Change is a political scam.

Just because one is a celebrity or otherwise well known does not mean they are an expert on other things besides their innate ability to sing, dance or act. I am reminded of this epic rant.

Very good news - The Paris Accord

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Been listening to President Trump as he is removing the United States from the Paris Accord. Great news!

Anthropogenic Global Warming is a political hoax - the numbers are simply not there.

Bill Whittle on Bill Nye

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Dueling forecasts

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I love it - showdown between the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel (founded by John Coleman - a professional meterologist who is an Anthropogenic Global Warming skeptic!).

In this corner, NWS:

20170522-nws.jpg

And in this corner (rotated to fit the page a bit better), the Weather Channel:

20170522-twc.jpg

Given my druthers, I am going with The Weather Channel.

Heh - spot on

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Today's Dilbert was absolutely wonderful - nails it:

20170514-dilbert.jpg

Click on it to embiggen...

From Bloomberg:

Record Cold Nights Cause Spring Pinch for Nordic Power
Nordic power prices soared as record cold weather in parts of the region delayed the seasonal melting of snow into water needed to generate electricity.

The coldest night on record dating back to 1859 this week helped electricity prices on Wednesday jump 34 percent so far in May from a year earlier and they are headed for the highest average level for the month since 2013 on the Nord Pool AS exchange in Oslo. The unseasonably cold weather is also driving up demand for the commodity.

”It’s what we call a spring pinch,” Sigbjorn Seland, chief analyst at StormGeo’s Nena Analysis in Oslo, said by phone. ”Unusually high spot prices and very low inflows due to the cold.”

Gee - if only they had some nuclear reactors to provide backup electricity...

Yikes - who ordered this?

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Just saw this bundle of hope and joy - from National Weather Service:

...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

Hikers, backpackers and campers should plan for cool and showery
conditions if traveling into the Olympics and Cascades Thursday
through the weekend.

An upper level low will shift inland bringing cool and unstable
conditions to Western Washington, a big change from the warm and
dry weather early this week. Snow levels will hover near 8000
feet then drop to around 3000 to 4000 feet Thursday night into
Friday as the cooler air mass moves inland. With wet and unstable
conditions, expect a mix of rain and low-elevation snow showers
in the mountains along with a chance of thunderstorms in the
Cascades.

This cool and showery pattern may continue into early next week
as another upper level low tracks over the Pacific Northwest.
Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest details.

Happy happy joy joy...

This report from England's Daily Star:

ICE AGE BRITAIN: River Thames will FREEZE OVER on 'this date' – and could kill millions
Experts told Daily Star Online planet Earth is on course for a “Little Ice Age” within the next three years thanks to a cocktail of climate change and low solar activity.

Research shows a natural cooling cycle that occurs every 230 years began in 2014 and will send temperatures plummeting even further by 2019.

Scientists are also expecting a “huge reduction” in solar activity for 33 years between 2020 and 2053 that will cause thermometers to crash.

Both cycles suggest Earth is entering a global cooling cycle that could have devastating consequences for global economy, human life and society as we know it.

They don't tell us who these experts are but the data indicates that this is what is happening. More people die by cold than by heat so this is something to be concerned about. Stock up on firewood at the very least.

Disturbing report from Associated Press (hat tip Gerard):

Indications arctic may become teperate zone
The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate, at Bergen , Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

Oh. Wait. This was published in the November 2, 1922 edition of The Anchorage Daily Times and The Washington Post – 93 years ago.

20170508-arctic01.jpg

20170508-arctic02.jpg

Weather is not climate - we are headed for an extended period of cooling as our sun is entering a quiet period.

Yesterday's Thunderstorms

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Looks like the bulk of it hit to our south - Cliff Mass has an excellent post-mortem:

Extraordinary Lightning Strikes over the Northwest
This morning, I took a look at the 24-h lightning strike map for the region and my jaw dropped (see the map below). Many hundreds (if not thousands) of lightning strikes hit our region, with southwest WA and the eastern side of Puget Sound country getting more lightning than I have ever seen before in a day. Simply amazing.

20170505-lightning.gif

Why so much lighting for this event? Certainly, the record breaking amounts of atmospheric moisture streaming into the area the previous two days are prime candidates. Large amounts of moisture act like "fuel" for thunderstorms, since as the air rises in the cumulonimbus clouds, the moisture condenses, releasing latent heat, which makes the air more buoyant.

Another measure of the intensity of the thunderstorms yesterday were their heights. Typical thunderstorms around here usually rise to 15,000-20,000 feet at most. Wimpy stuff. But yesterday, several of the storms climbed to over 40,000 ft, as shown by the echo-top radar product shown below.

Cliff also had two other posts about this storm which make for fun reading on this epic weather event - here are links:

#1) - Thunderstorms Have Begun over the Northwest!
#2) - Amazing Day of Lightining

Puget Sound Electric reported upwards of 40,000 people without power at its height yesterday. They are reporting about 130 seperate outages totalling about 4,000 customers that are still out as of this posting.

Global Warming - it is the Sun

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Our sun is a variable star and is the key driver for our climate. Not some trace gas in the atmosphere. Here is a list of 20 recent scientific papers shoing this. From NoTricksZone:

A Robust Sun-Climate Connection Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists

(1)  Yndestad and Solheim, 2017
Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima  and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.”

Below, the trends in Total Solar Irradiance for 1700-2013, which comes from the Yndestad and Solheim (2017) paper cited above, are shown to closely correspond to the temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere (NH, derived from “the mean of 22 regional reconstructions of instrumental JJA [June-August] temperatures“) as shown in Stoffel et al., 2015.

20170503-solar.jpg

And nineteen more at the site as well as a lagniappe of two more addressing this topic: Increased Surface Solar Radiation (Via Reduced Cloud Cover) Explains Post-1980s Warming

Cold weather in France - update

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Wrote about the freezing weather yesterday - here is a detailed report from Wine Spectator:

Update: French Winemakers Weathering Worst Frost in 25 Years
Cold weather struck France's young vine buds again this week, and Bordeaux is the latest region to suffer frost damage. Farther north, Burgundy and Champagne also weathered cold conditions and frost. Damage reports are incomplete so far, mainly because winegrowers have been busy preparing anti-frost measures.

Bordeaux's Right Bank Hit Hard
"We can already estimate that we have lost nearly half of the potential crop,” said Xavier Coumau, president of Bordeaux's Syndicate of Wine and Spirits Courtiers.

Lots more at the site - this is going to hit the French wine market hard. I drink WA State wines - there are some excellent ones available from Costco.

About that global warming - France

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Isn't this planet supposed to be getting significantly warmer? That is what all of the computer models are saying. From the UK Guardian:

French winemakers deploy candles, heaters and helicopters to save vines from frost
Sharp spring frosts are damaging production in some of France’s most famous winemaking regions, including Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy, posing a threat to growers’ incomes.

Vineyards report temperatures plunged in all three regions last week, sometimes to below -7C (19°F), hurting shoots already well-developed because of earlier mild weather, and growers fear a new cold snap could cause more damage.

They have been using candles, heaters and even the down-draught from helicopters to try to save crops.

“All areas of the Champagne are hit to very varying degrees,” said Thibaut Le Mailloux from the Champagne Committee (CIVC) industry group. “It’s too early to estimate the extent of the damage, but the frost impact is worse than last year’s”.

France’s total wine output fell 10% last year due to adverse weather conditions. Champagne was the worst hit, with the harvest down more than 20% on the previous year due to spring frosts followed by other problems such as mildew.

CIVC said that on average 20 to 25% of vine shoots had been destroyed in Champagne by Tuesday, against 14% last year. That estimate did not take into account potential damage from overnight frosts in the past two days.

The line "the frost impact is worse than last year’s" is especially chilling - not just weather, this is climate change. Getting cooler.

Unreal - the political dogma is strong in those people. From the Washington Examiner:

Former EPA employees find new gigs as Trump protesters
Former Environmental Protection Agency employees are finding new gigs as climate change activists ahead of this weekend's climate protest in Washington.

Nearly 800 former employees, some of them directors and senior staff, sent a letter Thursday to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, White House officials and several others, blasting President Trump's "policy of denial" on global warming.

It is not a "policy of denial" if the warming is not happening. Look at the data, not at the computer models.

"As former employees of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we know that science is at the heart of the bipartisan progress our nation has made toward protecting public health and the environment," the letter read. "Yet as we mark the 47th Earth Day this month, the Trump administration and its supporters in Congress are turning their backs on science and what it tells us about the gravest environmental problem of our times — climate change."

So your precious rice bowl got taken away and now you are confused, hurt and stressed out. Welcome to real life - you now have to go and find a job in the private sector. I can understand why these people are in panic mode; they have zero usable skills.

All that rain - they had just finished clearing Highway 101 in Mendocino County (gorgeous stretch of road). From the North Coast Journal:

101 Closed Until at Least Next Week; Rain Forecast to Return
Caltrans is estimating a possible reopening of U.S. Highway 101 sometime mid-to-late next week and is warning travelers to expect detours of up to seven hours until the roadway can be safely reopened.

The initial slide that closed down both lanes north of Leggett on April 16 was followed a few days later by another that dumped as much — if not more material — than the first one, according to Caltrans. Special equipment is being airlifted into the area next week.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is forecasting another storm system to move into the area on Monday and Tuesday with 1 to 3 inches of rain expected in Del Norte and Humboldt counties and a half-inch to 1 inch of rain in Mendocino County.

The second slide was caught on video by Wendy Kornberg:

Ho Li Crap - that is a lot of dirt...

Not science, politics being manipulated to make a few people very rich - from The Daily Caller:

Al Gore’s New Group Demands $15 Trillion To Fight Global Warming

Hey Al - STFU - your fifteen minutes elapsed a long long time ago you pompous windbag.

Wet in the forecast

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Checked in at Cliff Mass' blog and HO. LI. CRAP!

Pacific Mega Moisture Plume Approaches the West Coast
It is the JAWS of Pacific moisture plumes. And it is now reaching our shores.

Today's satellite imagery is stunning... a wide plume of moisture stretching across the entire Pacific Ocean and headed for the Pacific Northwest. Let me show you.

First, a visible satellite image --what you would see from space--showing a continuous band of clouds, 1000 miles wide, stretching from the western Pacific to just off our coast. Scary.

20170423-wet.jpg

More at the site - we are in for some wet weather for the next while - ten day forecast is pretty grim.

August 2017

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