Recently in Climate Category

Prayers to Florida - Hurricane Ian

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Strengthened to a CAT4 last night.  From Breitbart:

Hurricane Ian Just Shy of Category 5 as It Nears Florida
Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified off Florida’s southwest coast Wednesday morning, gaining top winds of 155 mph (250 kph), just shy of the most dangerous Category 5 status. Damaging winds and rain lashed the state’s heavily populated Gulf Coast, with the Naples to Sarasota region at “highest risk” of a devastating storm surge.

U.S. Air Force hurricane hunters confirmed Ian gained strength over warm Gulf of Mexico water after battering Cuba, bringing down the country’s electricity grid and leaving the entire island without power. Ian was centered about 65 miles (105 kilometers) west-southwest of Naples at 7 a.m., swirling toward the coast at 10 mph (17 kph).

“This is going to be a nasty nasty day, two days,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said early Wednesday. “This is going to be a rough stretch.”

It has been a very quiet hurricane season so far — until today...  Florida is well prepared.

Just wonderful - Polar Vortex

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From Severe Weather Europe:

An early disruption event is starting for the Polar Vortex, with pressure anomalies setting the stage for something bigger later in Winter
The Polar Vortex has just begun to form for the 2022/2023 weather season, but it is already facing its first disruptive event. Strong pressure systems in the lower atmosphere will send energy upwards into the Stratosphere, affecting the Polar Vortex and disrupting its early development process.

These early disruption processes can have an important effect as we get closer to Winter. Weather is linked to the stratospheric Polar Vortex, especially during the Winter. So it matters in what shape or form the Polar Vortex is as we enter the season.

But besides directly affecting the Polar Vortex, the pressure anomalies in the next days/weeks will also put another process in motion that can be even more disruptive for the Winter polar circulation. You will see how having more snow in October can mean more snow and cold in the Winter.

Just in time for Europe to face fuel shortages.  All over politics. The military-industirial complex.

Hurricane Ian - a sign

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Floridians have a certain sense of reality about this - two images:

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The tail end of Ian is going to pass right over my new house in NC - emailed the insurance broker today to check that everything was OK.

Sigh - the heat wave

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It was 80°F outside around 8:00PM - it is now 82°
This little word of encouragement from Cliff Mass:

The Big Cooling is Weakened and Delayed. And some amazing temperatures today
I hate to tell you this, but the model solutions have shifted during the past several runs: the result is that the major cooling will be delayed for several days. Not good.

What has changed you ask?

The forecasts from a few days ago had a sharp trough of low pressure moving through on Monday, forcing cooling from off the ocean (see the upper-level (500 hPa) forecast made Wednesday afternoon for Monday at 5 AM).

I know it only happens once/year but still...

From 90 Miles:

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Can't get a break - power outages

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Was checking the US Power Outage website and saw that the midwest was still having problems.  There was a Derecho that knocked out Ohio four days ago - looks like they are going through another tranche of stormy weather:

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Actually looking forward to moving there soon.  Grew up with weather like this - the weather out here is wimpy.  I miss a good t-storm...

Stormy weather - power outages

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Go hand in hand.  A guilty pleasure is watching the national power outage website.
Tonight was above and beyond:

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Checking the lightning site offers an explanation:

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The ocean is looking very oily - something is moving in.  From Cliff Mass:

A Winter Storm is Approaching: In May!
This May we are experiencing winter-like levels of precipitation, winter-like increases in the snowpack, and record-breaking cool temperatures.

The only thing missing is a winter-like Pacific storm, with deep low pressure and strong winds.

Well, it won't be missing tomorrow: a strong Pacific cyclone will make landfall on the British Columbia coast and gusty, damaging winds could batter the coast and Northwest Washington.

Even Puget Sound country will get a piece of it.

The low center will be making landfall on northern Vancouver Island at about 8 AM tomorrow (Wednesday), as shown by the predicted sea level pressure map at that time (see below).

The worst of it is going to hit to the North but still — the fun never stops... From Weather.com:

Gale Warning
From Wed 5 am until 5 pm PDT

Description
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...

WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 kt.

Out of the south so my house will be protected but still - going to be a fun blow.

Oh Noooeessss...  A three-fer - first from the London Daily Mail:

Mystery Antarctic 'swarm' of 85,000 earthquakes 'was triggered by magma from a long-dormant underwater volcano'
A 'swarm' of 85,000 earthquakes in Antarctica that lasted about six months in 2020 was triggered by magma from an underwater volcano, a new study says.

The swarm occurred at Orca Seamount, a deep-sea volcano near King George Island in Antarctica, in the Bransfield Strait, which has been inactive for 'a long time'.

Researchers have used seismometers and remote sensing techniques to determine how long the swarm lasted, and what caused it.

Swarm quakes mainly occur in volcanically active regions, so the movement of magma in the Earth's crust is therefore suspected as the cause.

During the swarm, ground on neighbouring King George Island moved 4.3 inches (11cm) - suggesting a 'finger' of magma almost reached the surface, the scientists report in their new study.

And the area of interest:

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Second?  From Newsweek:

Huge Earthquake Swarm Detected in Antarctica as Inactive Volcano Awakens
A huge earthquake swarm was detected in Antarctica, which researchers say was likely the result of a long-dormant volcano awakening.

An earthquake swarm refers to incidents in which many seismic events occur in the same small area over a relatively short period of time without an accompanying main shock.

According to a study published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, the swarm affected the Bransfield Strait—a body of water around 60 miles wide that is located between the northwestern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the South Shetland Islands.

And this little nugget:

While it may seem like Antarctica is totally devoid of volcanic activity, there is substantial evidence of volcanoes below the Antarctic Ice Sheet, according to NASA's Climate Change and Global Warming website. Some of these are currently active or have been in the recent geologic past.

The exact number of volcanoes in Antarctica remains a mystery but one recent study identified 138 of them in West Antarctica alone. Despite this, it appears from the available evidence that there have been no dramatic volcanic eruptions in the region in the recent geologic past.

Actually, there is a lot of well-known volcanic activity in West Antarctica.  (August 12, 2017November 17, 2013August 18, 2021    That is where all of the massive ice sheets are breaking off into the ocean.  The media puts all the cause on anthropogenic global warming but having 20-30 active volcanoes underneath the ice might be a contributing factor as well.

And third - FOX News:

Is there a supervolcano buried in Antarctica waiting to erupt?
Antarctica is behaving oddly. Like its North Pole counterpart, it’s being affected by our changing climate. But not in ways science expects.

It has lakes. It has rivers. All of liquid, flowing water. It’s just that they’re beneath the ice sheet. Not on top. How did they get there?

A new NASA study is adding evidence to a theory that there is an enormous geothermal heat source sitting beneath the ice.

Too many people pushing the agenda and not sticking their heads outside with a thermometer to actually get some hard data.  Computer models are one tool in a toolbox but they need to be reconciled with actual data and adjusted if there is no match.  The global warming people have these fancy forecasts.  We have over 200 years of very good global historic data.  The global warming forecasts do not work with this data.  They do not hindcast. They always show warming when zero warming has happened...

The volcano will be interesting if it goes.  Keep telling people that we need to prepare for a period of global cooling - this would greatly exacerbate things.  More people die from cold than from heat.

One thing that is certain about Malthusian predictions - they never, ever come true. For every limit that some pundit can imagine, human ingenuity always comes up with a solution.  For every climate catastrophe that the pundit can imagine, they always seem to overlook something that was outside their little bubble and was deemed unimportant at the time. Scary stories get publicity and if your prediction is sufficiently far in the future, people will not remember when it fails to transpire.

To aid your memory, here is a list of 50 of the more egregious howlers.
From Mark Perry at American Enterprise Institute:

50 years of failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic predictions; the so-called ‘experts’ are 0-50

1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024

30 more at the site. The media still prints this garbage and people still lap it up.

Rinshot! Climate change

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Like I keep saying:

I will believe that there is a crisis
when the people who are telling me that there is a crisis
start ACTING like there is a crisis.

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Earth Day - something to think about

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It goes back to that old saying:

I will believe that there is a crisis
when the people who are telling me that there is a crisis
start ACTING like there is a crisis.

Same event, two different news articles:

New Scientist (which used to be a really good publication):

Carbon removal project in Iceland suffers setback due to harsh winter
The world’s biggest facility for removing carbon dioxide directly from the air is running behind schedule in Iceland, after punishing Arctic conditions froze machinery and forced the Swiss company behind it to make modifications.

Launched in September 2021, the Climeworks “Orca” plant to the east of Reykjavik was hailed by Iceland’s prime minister Katrin Jakobsdottir as a “milestone in the fight against climate change”.

And Carbon Herald:

World’s Largest Carbon Removal Plant ‘Orca’ Freezes Over In Iceland
The world’s largest carbon removal plant located to the east of Reykjavik, Iceland, has frozen, putting its operations behind schedule.

Climeworks, the company behind the ambitious plant named ‘Orca’, had set out to capture 4,000 metric tons of CO2 every year directly from the air – a process known as direct air capture or DAC.

By the end of the decade, in fact, the project’s capacity is expected to reach as much as 1 million tons of carbon dioxide.

However, as it became apparent, the plant was not equipped to handle the harsh weather conditions in Iceland and some of the machinery froze.

One Million Tons of CO2 - just as a heads up, 2016 is the last year I have positive numbers and in 2016, world citizens emitted 35,753,305,000 tons of Carbon Dioxide.  All the money spent on this plant, all the environmental impact of this plant, will only ameliorate 1/35,753 of this supposed problem.

Me?  I smell grift.  I smell me a big 'ole grift.  Someone made a lot of money in this feel-good/do-nothing project.  All it had to do was appear to work during the ribbon cutting ceremony and then the principals laugh all the way to the bank.
Solyndra anyone? I can name a few others if you want.

From the London Daily Mail:

Don't you know who I am? Pompous Penn State professor tries to shame Marriott on Twitter for showing Fox News in NYC hotel gym while bragging that he has more followers than chain

    • Michael Mann, a professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State, went on the Twitter rant Saturday, blasting Marriott for showing Fox News in the hotel gym
    • The professor was staying at Marriott Times Square in New York City
    • Mann claimed that he only one TV was showing news, and it was Fox News
    • He said the conservative network promotes anti-American, pro-Russian propaganda
    • When Mann asked to changed the channel, he said he was told that employees were not allowed to change the channel
    • Mann continued to post on Twitter, tagging the hotel, in hopes of a response, while bragging about his follower count in an ego-crazed manner
    • Nearly 24 hours after his initial rant, Mann said he had a response from Marriott
    • Mann said he was informed by Marriott that it is not the hotel's policy to have one single news channel on the TVs in the gym
    • He added that contrary to what the employee said Saturday, the channels can be changed in response to the requests of their guests

Mann was the guy who came up with the infamous "global warming" graph in 1998 - the Hockey Stick:

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People started asking for his data and his methods and he stonewalled.  Since this work was produced through Federal (taxpayer) funding, by law, these are public domain and should have been released.

A number of people have found serious flaws in this work and in subsequent work from this moke.  A wonderful book was compiled by Mark Steyn called: A Disgrace to the Profession

The "hockey stick" graph of global temperatures is the single most influential icon in the global-warming debate, promoted by the UN's transnational climate bureaucracy, featured in Al Gore's Oscar-winning movie, used by governments around the world to sell the Kyoto Accord to their citizens, and shown to impressionable schoolchildren from kindergarten to graduation.

And yet what it purports to "prove" is disputed and denied by many of the world's most eminent scientists. In this riveting book, Mark Steyn has compiled the thoughts of the world's scientists, in their own words, on hockey-stick creator Michael E Mann, his stick and their damage to science. From Canada to Finland, Scotland to China, Belgium to New Zealand, from venerable Nobel Laureates to energetic young researchers on all sides of the debate analyze the hockey stock and the wider climate wars it helped launch.

Yeah - Michael Mann displayed a profound lack of scientific rigor - his paper showed what he wanted it to show.  He wanted to reinforce the narrative.  It is especially funny in that Mann filed a lawsuit against Steyn and lost. A bit more with some excerpts and additional materials can be found here: Mark Steyn’s new book on Michael Mann

Dr. Mann was also in the news for claiming to have won the Nobel Prize.  He did not.
From National Review:  Mike’s Nobel Trick

Getting bitter in his old age.  Hey Mike?  Your fifteen minutes were over in 1999. 
Time to give it a break. Everyone is on to the climate scam. It's over.

alt.energy - the hidden costs

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A few years old but a great exploration of just how practical solar and wind can be:

OK - Done: Climate Change

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A bit of weather over there

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Looks like our new home is in for a spot of winter weather - weather.com

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...
WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
WHERE...Cherokee and Clay Counties.
WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are possible, mainly across the higher elevations, secondary roadways, bridges and overpasses.

From what I heard talking to people, the whole county will shut down if there is even a dusting on the ground.  Not used to it.  The whole East Coast is getting hit - London Daily Mail:

More than 20M people are under winter weather warnings as powerful 'bomb cyclone' storm heads toward the Northeast: New York and New England to bear the brunt while South and Midwest brace for treacherous mix of thunderstorms and snow

    • Snowfall totals range from 1-3 inches in Alabama and Mississippi to more than a foot in northern Maine
    • The storm is heading from the central US to the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast
    • Georgia, the Panhandle and the Carolinas could get severe thunderstorms
    • More than a foot of snow is possible in places like New York and New England
    • Schools from Kansas City to Pittsburgh have announced weather closures
    • A cold front on Friday is bringing temperatures down by 30 degrees below average from Texas to Minnesota

Certainly could use some of that Global Warming about now.  Where's Al Gore these days?

The experts - Climate "Change"

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Stormy weather - WA State passes

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And the fun keeps getting funner.  From a WA State Department of Transportation email this morning:

Cross-state travel should not be attempted Thursday – passes to be closed until Saturday
As expected, extreme weather has created havoc across much of the state, leading to a number of closures including Snoqualmie, Stevens, White and Blewett passes. Conditions are so hazardous – including snow slides, trees falling and high avalanche concern – that it is too dangerous for our snow plow and avalanche control crews to be in the areas. Because of that, passes will not reopen until Saturday. Due to extreme avalanche danger we’ll need Friday to assess and clear passes once our crews can re-enter the areas.

Additionally, the two other east-west routes – SR 14 and Oregon’s I-84, which run through the Columbia River Gorge – are closed to freight traffic, with I-84 being closed to all vehicles.

The current conditions on the passes include very heavy snowfall, near-zero visibility and debris falling from the mountains onto the highway. Once the snowfall lets up, the forecast calls for heavy rain, including freezing rain, which will increase the avalanche issues.

Once we determine it is safe enough for our crews, there will still be significant work to do before we can reopen.

No place I have to be.  Working at home this afternoon.  Got a zoom meeting later but that is it.

From AccuWeather:

What to know about the next winter storm approaching the East Coast
The mid-Atlantic and New England will face the second snowstorm of the week from Thursday night into Friday. AccuWeather forecasters say accumulating snow will be disruptive across a large swath of the Northeast, including major cities from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.

Winter storm watches, warnings and advisories were issued across a large corridor of the United States from the South into the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday in advance of the snowstorm.

Arctic air will surge across the Midwest into Wednesday night, and a storm will form along the leading edge of the cold air as a dip in the jet stream provides enough fuel for a new system to develop. It will be a fairly fast-moving storm that will sweep eastward into the Northeast Thursday night into Friday.

"This will be a disruptive storm, and since cold air will be preceding the storm, snow will accumulate on roads as soon as it starts,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Makes me wonder where Al is these days?  (Gore Effect)

From the Mt. Baker Snow Report:

Yesterday was one for the books. We'd like to give our crew a HUGE shoutout for getting the mountain operational by midday after a blizzard dropped 30" of snow on Baker in 24 hours. It was an epic effort from everyone on the mountain, which then made for an incredibly epic day for all those who stayed to ski and ride that pow!

With the snow continuing to stack up and moderate winds expected today, there’s more sweet powder shredding to be had!

42" in the last 48 hours. From Seattle station KOMO:

Passes reach highest snow total in 20 years, more incoming
The region, especially the passes, has had a lot of snow and more is coming.

"Snoqualmie Pass has received 236" of snow, the highest total at this point in the season in 20 years," meteorologist Kristin Clark said. "The Cascades will get caked in more heavy snow, especially on Thursday, with over 30 inches forecast by the weekend."

Meanwhile, the East coast is still digging out - Virginia has over 217K customers without power The rest of the Eastern seabord is out too - Carolinas, Georga...

Global warming? A two-fer

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From the London Daily Mail:

Freezing snow storm Frida slams into East Coast and compounds nation's COVID paralysis: One million are left without power as up to 11 inches of snow falls, closing testing centers and D.C. government offices

A perfect storm! Biden gets SNOWED IN on Air Force One as he arrives in D.C. to disastrous poll numbers, rampant inflation, a stalled agenda, nation paralyzed by COVID, a lackluster VP, and the prospect of GOP landslide in the midterms

Looks like the middle-Eastern states are having some electrical issues too:

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Virginia has 317,263 customers without power. Maryland, 39K, North Carolina 41K.

Moving to a warmer climate is a very prescient thing to be doing.  The Little Ice Age, the Dalton Minimum, the Maunder Minimum - those were not flukes.  This stuff happens.  It is one thing to preach doom and gloom and use computer models to back up your narrative.  Another thing entirely to go outside with a thermometer and a notebook and see what is actually happening out there.  It's a big world and what is being reported in the media is not necessarily what is actually happening.  The map is not the territory.

Stormy weather

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The rain has started - coming down heavy.

Mt. Baker is expecting a significant snowfall this weekend. Great news for the local economy.

And here we go again - midwest weather

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Here is a realtime map of lightning strikes as of a few minutes ago:

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Looks like the tornadoes were just a warm-up act.

This sort of activity has happened before and it will happen again but it still sucks to be in the middle of it.

Crap - huge storm system

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It is not stopping. Carrying on into West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York.
Here is the latest from PowerOutageUS:

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Meanwhile, on the left side of the Nation, Washington and Oregon are still dealing with outages too - 13,328 and 11,096 respectivly.

Kentucky - tornado damage

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Brandon Clement from WX Chasing shot some footage of the destruction. NPR has it on their YouTube channel:

Storms in the midwest - update

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From the New York Post:

Tornadoes rip across 5 states, at least 50 dead
At least 50 people died when tornadoes swept across five states overnight, causing a train to derail and destroying a candle factory in Western Kentucky, tearing the roof off an Amazon warehouse in Illinois and obliterating a nursing home in Arkansas. Officials warned the death toll may rise as daybreak reveals the extent of the damage.

Hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses across seven states were also without power as the sun rose to reveal the path of destruction from the storms.

From Associated Press:

Dozens feared dead as tornadoes, storms strike US states
Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across multiple states late Friday, killing at least six people overnight as a storm system tore through a candle factory in Kentucky, an Amazon facility in Illinois and a nursing home in Arkansas. The Kentucky governor said he feared dozens more could be dead.

Gov. Andy Beshear said about 110 people were in the factory in Mayfield, Kentucky, when the tornado hit.

“We believe our death toll from this event will exceed 50 Kentuckians and probably end up 70 to 100,” he said at a news conference Saturday. “It’s very hard, really tough, and we’re praying for each and every one of those families.”

More as I hear about it.  Crap.

Storms in the midwest

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Woke up and it looks like they had a really rough night. A lot more power out all over a wide swath - one for the record books. From PowerOutageUS:   More as I find out about it.  Spent the night listening to the wind here as well - 32K cutomers without power up North in Whatcom County - heading up there tomorrow to work at the farm.

The numbers:

Top Areas by Outages
Tennessee—132,554
Kentucky—67,091
Indiana—51,330
Michigan—42,513
Washington—32,687

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Not just here - high wind

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Looks like the midwest is getting hit with tornados.

St. Louis, MO station KMOV:

Amazon distribution center collapses in Edwardsville
There is a large emergency response at an Amazon distribution center in Edwardsville.

News 4’s Jenna Rae was on the scene shortly before 9:30 p.m. Friday and saw dozens of first responders arriving to the area. There have been reports that people were inside of the building when the collapse happened.

More:

“He was on the phone with me while it was happening,” she recalled. “The tornado was hitting the back of the building, the trucks were coming in, I told him to jump out the truck and duck. We watched the building go up, stuff hitting the cars, I told him I was on my way.”

From Little Rock, Ak station KARK:

Tornado outbreak leaving path of deadly destruction through Arkansas
An outbreak of storms starting early Friday evening spawned tornadoes that ravaged communities throughout Arkansas and left at least two people dead.

Authorities in the small northeast Arkansas town of Monette issued a state of emergency and told residents to shelter in place.

Lots of power outages in the area. Missouri has 28,362 customers without power, Arkansas has 27,491, Illinois—35,669, Kentucky—18,278 and Tennesee—10,591

Prayers going out to the people and to the first responders.  This is unusual weather for this time of year.

Wind is picking up - right on schedule

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They were saying 7:00PM and bingo.

From weather.com:

High Wind Warning from FRI 7:00 PM PST until SAT 4:00 AM PST

Description
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY...
WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.
WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, North Coast, Central Coast, Western Skagit County and Admiralty Inlet Area.
WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Saturday.
IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Got candles and flashlights out.  This is not my first rodeo. Fortunately, it is out of the South so I am shielded by a large hillside in back of me. No waves crashing on the bulkhead this time.

The cluster of earthquakes off the Oregon coast seems to have quieted down a lot.  Two today but that was it.  Really hope that it was the Subduction Zone relieving some pent-up stress and not a precursor to the next (and overdue) big one.

Now it's their turn - East Coast storm

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From the London Daily Mail:

'This looks like a Planes, Trains and Automobiles storm': Heavy snow and rain across Northeast and Midwest next week is expected to 'throw a wrench' into Thanksgiving travel plans for up to 50 million Americans

    • Forecasters are keeping their eye on weather patterns that could wreak havoc for travelers trying to reach their Thanksgiving destinations next week
    • Models predict a storm forming in the central plains next Sunday and dumping snow across parts of Minnesota, north Wisconsin and northern Michigan
    • The storm could result in 'heavy accumulations' from northern Indiana and Michigan to Maryland next Monday through Wednesday
    • Inclement weather might trigger heavy rainfalls along the east coast Monday and Tuesday, possibly hitting New York City, Boston and Chicago, potentially leading to flooding and disrupted ground travel
    • More than 53 million Americans are expected to travel during the long weekend
    • AAA advised the 4.2 million Americans expected to fly this year to visit their loved ones to prepare for long lines and to make extra time for TSA checks

A winter storm is set to wallop central and eastern US next week, wreaking havoc on roads and flights as more than 53 million Americans make their way home for Thanksgiving - after many were forced to skip last year's gatherings due to Covid

The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center warned the storm could be 'potentially significant.'

And please note - this is not global warming. This is weather.
It has happened before and it will happen again.

Our quiet sun - China

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From the South China Morning Post:

More people die from cold than from heat.

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They are doing so well on economics, covid, education, etc... 
Let's give them even more of our hard-earned money to repair climate.
Wait a minute?  How does the climate need repairing?  It's broken?

From Cliff Mass:

Major Flooding Ahead as A Strong Atmospheric River Aims at the Northwest
After a relatively dry summer, the Northwest is experiencing one of the wettest autumns in a long time.

September and October brought above-normal precipitation around the region. November is going to smash typical monthly precipitation amounts at most stations.

Over the next few days, a powerful atmospheric river of moisture surging out of the subtropics will inundate our region, with the western slopes of some of our terrain barriers experiencing as much as 10 inches of rain. Falling on saturated soils, westside rivers will surge to flood stage...some to major flood stage.

Water vapor satellite imagery (which measures the amount of infrared radiation emitted by atmospheric water vapor), shows an impressive plume of water vapor extending from north of Hawaii into our region. Perhaps a part of the "aloha spirit" that is not as welcome as others.

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And yeah, it's coming down now.  Planning a trip to the farm Sunday/Monday.  Loading up the van between now and then.  Looks like I will be using a lot of garbage bags to keep things somewhat dry.  Also planning to bring the new trailer back down.  The fun never stops...

Global warming? Winter Olympics

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Looks like China might be having some unseasonably cold weather for the Winter Olympics.
From the Communist Chinese house organ Global Times:

Beijing Winter Olympics fully prepared for cold waves, as artificial snowmaking meets low-carbon standards
As the city of Beijing is expected to experience one of the coldest winters ever this year, which could be subject to other weather extremes, Beijing Winter Olympics meteorological security researchers said the organizing committee has prepared for various weather conditions to ensure that the outdoor events will not be affected by sudden weather extremes.

And:

In Beijing, this winter's first major snowfall came 23 days earlier than usual, as a severe cold wave hit many parts of China over the weekend with heavy snowfalls and plunging temperatures. 

Yeah...  #1) - the world is cooling off and #2) - yes, we do influence the overall climate but this influence is a pittance.  A few percent at best.  The idea that our activities can cause a profound change is pure fscking hubris.

Stormy weather - local passes

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Nothing happening up here but things are moving in - local weather has just a small craft advisory until 11PM tonight.  South of here, got some mountain passes closed temporarily.  From the WA State DOT:  "Chinook and Cayuse passes are temporarily closed due to collisions and adverse weather"

Waiting for the big one to hit sometime Monday.

Yesterday, I wrote about how China was telling its citizens: Be prepared - 30 days of food, water, etc...

This was in Chinese on an internal website - not an English language house organ like Global Times or South China Morning Post

Today, from Zero Hedge:

La Nina Sparks "Cold Wave" Across China As CCP Tells Households To Stockpile Food
China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warned Thursday of a cold blast to sweep across the country from northwestern to southeastern China due to a La Nina weather event.

Xue Jianjun, deputy director of CMA, said: "The cold air will bring a plunge in temperature nationwide compared with mid-October. The cold wave came from west Siberia which was then enhanced by cold air from the North Pole." 

"Heavy snow or rain will take over the Northeast and North China and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, and farmers there should store corns outdoors ahead of the precipitation," Jianjun said.

CMA warned last month that a La Nina weather pattern would bring colder weather to the country. The timing of the cooler air is problematic amid an energy crisis that has resulted in nationwide power rationings

Beijing understood ahead of time La Nina would bring colder weather. It ordered the country's top state-owned energy companies to secure coal supplies for this winter at all costs in September. 

State-run news outlet Xinhua News Agency said, "the possibility of phased extreme and strong cooling events is high." 

Colder weather will also mean more precipitation and flooding as well as a late start to the 2022 agricultural season. They have to import soybeans and coal. Wonder how much actual hard currency they have.

Feel it in my bones - storms

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Going to be a typical but interesting November - from Cliff Mass:

A Very Stormy November Ahead
For the Northwest, November is the stormiest month of the year by almost every measure.

A month in which strong low-pressure areas or midlatitude cyclones move off the Pacific Ocean towards our region.

The next week is going to be extraordinarily active and it will be a miracle if western Washington or western Oregon escapes one of the big blows.

Fast forward to this:

Had enough? Sorry.
The most impressive storm is just offshore on Monday afternoon, and it is VERY deep, with a central pressure of 951 hPa. Deeper than the famed Columbus Day Storm. Sustained winds of 50-65 knots. You don't want to know about the gusts.

Oregon coast is going to bear the brunt.

Warm and cloudy - spitting rain off and on.  Heading out to get the mail and some groceries.
Time to batten down the hatches.

And missed it by —><— that much

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Happy news for those downstream - the river crested just below flood stage last night:

20211029-stilly01.png

More rain is coming in today though - we will see...

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