Recently in Climate Category

I was happy that President Trump pulled us out of this non-binding non-treaty. An interview with Drieu Godefridi at Friends of Science - Calgary:

Outcome of the Paris Accord: a re-founding act of American democracy?
Interview with Drieu Godefridi, Belgian philosopher, jurist, author of “Le GIEC etMort; Vive le Science” (The IPCC is Dead: Long Live Science) published in English under the title “The IPCC: A Scientific Body?” Godefridi discusses his view that the exit of the Trump Administration from the Paris Agreement is a sensible return to American democracy. Godefridi traces the incremental takeover of public policy by globalists and minority view activists using unelected, unaccountable politically-rife bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the guise of ‘science’ to foist ever-more economically detrimental demands on the West. These groups use contrived morality and guilt to affect a bank hold-up, the trigger-about-to-be-pulled being the ‘climate catastrophe.’

Some thoughts:

The Paris Accord marks the apotheosis, not of “globalism,” but of a particular version of globalism, which one should rather qualify as socialist. Indeed, let us recall the actual content of the Paris Agreement! What does it foresee? Essentially, two things: the drastic reduction of CO2 emissions in the West, right away, with the possibility for states such as China – the world’s largest CO2 emitter – to continue to increase emissions to 2030, with no requirement whatsoever to reduce emissions. The second essential component of “Paris” is the Green Fund, which provides for the transfer of $ 100 billion a year from the West to the rest of the world. “Paris” is therefore, first and foremost, the triumph of what was called “support for the Third World” in the 70s and 80s, that is to say, a massive and permanent transfer of wealth from the West to the rest of the world.

And the sheer breadth of the corruption:

What we have been seeing for the past two decades, in the areas of climate, gender theory, immigration and terrorism, and so on, is that activist minority ideologues have confiscated democratic debate. By acting at the international level, they have an enormous advantage. As soon as such an unaccountable international body has seized a cause, its standards prevail over national parliaments! When gender theory was enshrined in its most radical version in 2011 by a Council of Europe Convention, it became virtually impossible to dislodge it. When, in cases such as HIRSI (2012), the European Courts devoted the “no border” ideology, it became almost impossible for the national ministers who wished to defend their own borders to do so. Examples that come to mind are Francken in Belgium, his British and Austrian counterpart, or the countries of the Visegrád group – a handful able to oppose it effectively. But it is in the domain of climate that this confiscation of democratic debate is the most masterful, reaching a kind of virtuosity.

A lot more at the site - I am just touching the surface. A very articulate analysis of what we are up against.

About that global warming stuff

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From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Snow cancels Yukon-Alaska bike race for 1,300 riders
The 25th-annual Kluane Chilkat International Bike Relay has been cancelled due to snow at the starting line, affecting about 1,300 riders who were set to begin the race Saturday morning.

This is the first time the race has been cancelled.

"The race was cancelled because not only snow and slush in the upper elevations in the summit legs, but right here in Haines Junction at the start," said Mike Kramer, race coordinator.

The comments are a fun read from both sides of the catastrophic fence.

YES! - the Department of Energy

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From The Daily Caller:

DOE Eliminates ‘Unnecessary’ Office Promoting International Clean Energy Policies
The Department of Energy (DOE) nixed one of its many duplicative foreign climate change offices Thursday to streamline the agency responsible for managing the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Nearly a dozen members of the Office of International Climate and Technology were released so the Trump administration could cut bloat from within the DOE. The office was opened in 2010 to help allies across the world kick-start technology reducing greenhouse gasses.

Employees in the office are part of the so-called Clean Energy Ministerial, a small collective of polluting nations such as China and India. Their sole focus was to develop technology fighting man-made climate change.

The department is “looking for ways to consolidate the many duplicative programs that currently exist within DOE,” a spokesman for the agency told reporters, adding that the Office of International Climate and Technology would close as well.

A lot more at the site - the DOE already has two other offices that deal with international climate change. This action is just getting rid of duplicate bureaucracies.

Ho Li Crap - going to be a wet time

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Serious rain heading our way - from Cliff Mass:

Midwinter Moisture in June
Tomorrow is going to be an unusual June day over the Northwest. An extraordinary plume of moisture that stretches across the the Pacific is now approaching our shores, and mid-winter amounts of rain will spread over the region. A satellite image of the amount of water vapor in the upper atmosphere shows a "river "of moisture stretching from the southwest north Pacific to our coast.

Here is the forecast for conditions at 8:00AM tomorrow:

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Looking at several inches of precipitation.

News you can use - Solar Minima

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Our sun is a variable star and it has cooled off a lot from time to time - the Maunder Minimum, the little ice age, the Dalton Minimum. We may well be headed for a new cold period.

This link goes to a PDF document that covers some essentials if this happens: Solar “Grand Minima” Preparedness Plan

Another global warming catastrophe

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When will it ever stop - the Earth is doomed. From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Climate change researchers cancel expedition because of climate change
A team of scientists had to abandon an expedition through Hudson Bay because of hazardous ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland caused by climate change.

About 40 scientists from five Canadian universities were scheduled to use the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for the first leg of a 133-day expedition across the Arctic. It's part of a $17-million, four-year project led by the University of Manitoba that looks at both the effects of climate change as well as public health in remote communities.

Their trip began May 25 in Quebec City, but due to bad ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland, the icebreaker was diverted from its course to help ferries and fishing boats navigate the Strait of Belle Isle, said David Barber, a climate change scientist at the University of Manitoba and leader of the Hudson Bay expedition called BaySys.

A bit more:

'Very severe ice conditions'
According to the Canadian Coast Guard, the conditions were unlike anything ever seen before in the area.

"It was just extreme ice conditions that required everything that we've got in order to make sure we were able to provide the services," said Julie Gascon, the coast guard's assistant commissioner for the central and Arctic region.

Now, where were we? The Science is Settled? How about the 19+ year decline in atmospheric air temperature? How about the extremely low solar flux?

My advice? Prepare for an extended period of cooling - another Maunder Minimum. We are overdue.

Wonderful analysis that puts Anthropogenic Global Warming where it should be - in the dustbin of history.

Check out the Global Warming Petition Project

ABSTRACT
A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases during the 20th and early 21st centuries have produced no deleterious effects upon Earth's weather and climate. Increased carbon dioxide has, however, markedly increased plant growth. Predictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocarbon use and minor greenhouse gases like CO2 do not conform to current experimental knowledge. The environmental effects of rapid expansion of the nuclear and hydrocarbon energy industries are discussed.

Read the whole thing - they cover all bases and thoroughly dismantle all of the AGW talking points.

Climate Change - Dr. John Coleman

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Dr. Coleman founded The Weather Channel. He is a professional meteorologist (since retired). Here he is with CNN's Brian Stelter:

CNN = Fake News

Seriously?¿?¿

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From the National Weather Service:

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK
AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS QUITE
COOL AND UNSTABLE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PlUMMET CLOSE TO 5000 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. ON TUESDAY...PARADISE
ON MOUNT RAINIER HIT 70 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

THOSE PLANNING ANY TRAVEL INTO THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER...
PARTICULARLY HIKERS AND CLIMBERS. EVEN MOTORISTS CROSSING THE
HIGHER PASSES SUCH AS WASHINGTON...CHINOOK...CAYUSE AND WHITE
PASSES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MORE WINTER LIKE DRIVING CONDITIONS.

Snow? We sure could use some of that global warming right now...

Red Team Blue Team - the EPA

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Wonderful interview of Scott Pruitt - President Trump's pick for head of EPA.

Audio here: EPA’s Pruitt: Establish ‘Red Team, Blue Team’ of scientists to examine climate risk of CO2

Partial transript:

EPA ADMINISTRATOR PRUITT: “What the American people deserve, I think, is a true legitimate, peer reviewed, objective, transparent discussion about CO2. And, you know there was a great article that was in the Wall Street Journal, about a month or so ago, Joel, called ‘Red Team/Blue Team’ by Steve Koonin, a scientist I believe at NYU. And, he talked about the importance of having a red team of scientist and a blue team of scientists and those scientists get in a room and ask what do we know, what don’t we know, and what risk does it pose to health, the United States, and the world with respect to this issue of CO2. The American people need to have that type of honest open discussion, and it’s something we hope to provide as part of our leadership.”

The Koonin article is here: A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science but it is behind a paywall...

Good observation by Glenn Reynolds at USA Today:

To fight climate change, start with Leonardo DiCaprio's private jet lifestyle
So last week President Trump pulled out of the Paris climate agreement — to the extent that one can pull out of an agreement that’s not actually legally binding, anyway. This left some people upset.

But if climate change is really such a crisis, and if sacrifice on our part is needed to stop it, then why aren’t we seeing more sacrifice from people who think it’s a problem?

That’s what one person asked on Twitter: "What if climate scientists decided, as a group, to make their conferences all virtual? No more air travel. What a statement!” And what if academics in general — most of whom think climate change is a big deal — started doing the same thing to make an even bigger statement?

It would be big. And what if politicians and celebrities stopped jetting around the world — often on wasteful private jets instead of flying commercial with the hoi polloi — as a statement of the importance of fighting climate change?

And what if politicians and celebrities lived in average-sized houses, to reduce their carbon footprints?  What if John Kerry, who was much put out by Trump’s action, gave up his yacht-and-mansions lifestyle?

What if, indeed? One reason why so many people don’t take climate change seriously is that the people who are constantly telling us it’s a crisis never actually act like it’s a crisis. They’re all-in for sacrifices by other people, but never seem to make much in the way of sacrifices themselves.

He has a point there - Glen closes with four proposals on how to implement a real climate change program. Liberal tears will be copious.

The Paris Accord

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Heh:

20170602-paris.jpg

Great reading - Trump announced that he was consigning the Paris Accord to the dustbin of history (where it rightly belongs) and the usual idiots are braying at the top of their lungs:

This last  one is sad because The Weather Channel was 50% founded by Dr. John Coleman - a professional meteorologist who is very outspoken about climate change - it always does and humans have little impact on it. Climate Change is a political scam.

Just because one is a celebrity or otherwise well known does not mean they are an expert on other things besides their innate ability to sing, dance or act. I am reminded of this epic rant.

Very good news - The Paris Accord

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Been listening to President Trump as he is removing the United States from the Paris Accord. Great news!

Anthropogenic Global Warming is a political hoax - the numbers are simply not there.

Bill Whittle on Bill Nye

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Dueling forecasts

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I love it - showdown between the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel (founded by John Coleman - a professional meterologist who is an Anthropogenic Global Warming skeptic!).

In this corner, NWS:

20170522-nws.jpg

And in this corner (rotated to fit the page a bit better), the Weather Channel:

20170522-twc.jpg

Given my druthers, I am going with The Weather Channel.

Heh - spot on

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Today's Dilbert was absolutely wonderful - nails it:

20170514-dilbert.jpg

Click on it to embiggen...

From Bloomberg:

Record Cold Nights Cause Spring Pinch for Nordic Power
Nordic power prices soared as record cold weather in parts of the region delayed the seasonal melting of snow into water needed to generate electricity.

The coldest night on record dating back to 1859 this week helped electricity prices on Wednesday jump 34 percent so far in May from a year earlier and they are headed for the highest average level for the month since 2013 on the Nord Pool AS exchange in Oslo. The unseasonably cold weather is also driving up demand for the commodity.

”It’s what we call a spring pinch,” Sigbjorn Seland, chief analyst at StormGeo’s Nena Analysis in Oslo, said by phone. ”Unusually high spot prices and very low inflows due to the cold.”

Gee - if only they had some nuclear reactors to provide backup electricity...

Yikes - who ordered this?

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Just saw this bundle of hope and joy - from National Weather Service:

...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

Hikers, backpackers and campers should plan for cool and showery
conditions if traveling into the Olympics and Cascades Thursday
through the weekend.

An upper level low will shift inland bringing cool and unstable
conditions to Western Washington, a big change from the warm and
dry weather early this week. Snow levels will hover near 8000
feet then drop to around 3000 to 4000 feet Thursday night into
Friday as the cooler air mass moves inland. With wet and unstable
conditions, expect a mix of rain and low-elevation snow showers
in the mountains along with a chance of thunderstorms in the
Cascades.

This cool and showery pattern may continue into early next week
as another upper level low tracks over the Pacific Northwest.
Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest details.

Happy happy joy joy...

This report from England's Daily Star:

ICE AGE BRITAIN: River Thames will FREEZE OVER on 'this date' – and could kill millions
Experts told Daily Star Online planet Earth is on course for a “Little Ice Age” within the next three years thanks to a cocktail of climate change and low solar activity.

Research shows a natural cooling cycle that occurs every 230 years began in 2014 and will send temperatures plummeting even further by 2019.

Scientists are also expecting a “huge reduction” in solar activity for 33 years between 2020 and 2053 that will cause thermometers to crash.

Both cycles suggest Earth is entering a global cooling cycle that could have devastating consequences for global economy, human life and society as we know it.

They don't tell us who these experts are but the data indicates that this is what is happening. More people die by cold than by heat so this is something to be concerned about. Stock up on firewood at the very least.

Disturbing report from Associated Press (hat tip Gerard):

Indications arctic may become teperate zone
The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulate, at Bergen , Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

Oh. Wait. This was published in the November 2, 1922 edition of The Anchorage Daily Times and The Washington Post – 93 years ago.

20170508-arctic01.jpg

20170508-arctic02.jpg

Weather is not climate - we are headed for an extended period of cooling as our sun is entering a quiet period.

Yesterday's Thunderstorms

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Looks like the bulk of it hit to our south - Cliff Mass has an excellent post-mortem:

Extraordinary Lightning Strikes over the Northwest
This morning, I took a look at the 24-h lightning strike map for the region and my jaw dropped (see the map below). Many hundreds (if not thousands) of lightning strikes hit our region, with southwest WA and the eastern side of Puget Sound country getting more lightning than I have ever seen before in a day. Simply amazing.

20170505-lightning.gif

Why so much lighting for this event? Certainly, the record breaking amounts of atmospheric moisture streaming into the area the previous two days are prime candidates. Large amounts of moisture act like "fuel" for thunderstorms, since as the air rises in the cumulonimbus clouds, the moisture condenses, releasing latent heat, which makes the air more buoyant.

Another measure of the intensity of the thunderstorms yesterday were their heights. Typical thunderstorms around here usually rise to 15,000-20,000 feet at most. Wimpy stuff. But yesterday, several of the storms climbed to over 40,000 ft, as shown by the echo-top radar product shown below.

Cliff also had two other posts about this storm which make for fun reading on this epic weather event - here are links:

#1) - Thunderstorms Have Begun over the Northwest!
#2) - Amazing Day of Lightining

Puget Sound Electric reported upwards of 40,000 people without power at its height yesterday. They are reporting about 130 seperate outages totalling about 4,000 customers that are still out as of this posting.

Global Warming - it is the Sun

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Our sun is a variable star and is the key driver for our climate. Not some trace gas in the atmosphere. Here is a list of 20 recent scientific papers shoing this. From NoTricksZone:

A Robust Sun-Climate Connection Increasingly Affirmed By Scientists

(1)  Yndestad and Solheim, 2017
Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima  and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003). Nineteen grand maxima have been identified by Usoskin et al. (2007) in an 11,000-yr series.”

Below, the trends in Total Solar Irradiance for 1700-2013, which comes from the Yndestad and Solheim (2017) paper cited above, are shown to closely correspond to the temperature trends for the Northern Hemisphere (NH, derived from “the mean of 22 regional reconstructions of instrumental JJA [June-August] temperatures“) as shown in Stoffel et al., 2015.

20170503-solar.jpg

And nineteen more at the site as well as a lagniappe of two more addressing this topic: Increased Surface Solar Radiation (Via Reduced Cloud Cover) Explains Post-1980s Warming

Cold weather in France - update

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Wrote about the freezing weather yesterday - here is a detailed report from Wine Spectator:

Update: French Winemakers Weathering Worst Frost in 25 Years
Cold weather struck France's young vine buds again this week, and Bordeaux is the latest region to suffer frost damage. Farther north, Burgundy and Champagne also weathered cold conditions and frost. Damage reports are incomplete so far, mainly because winegrowers have been busy preparing anti-frost measures.

Bordeaux's Right Bank Hit Hard
"We can already estimate that we have lost nearly half of the potential crop,” said Xavier Coumau, president of Bordeaux's Syndicate of Wine and Spirits Courtiers.

Lots more at the site - this is going to hit the French wine market hard. I drink WA State wines - there are some excellent ones available from Costco.

About that global warming - France

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Isn't this planet supposed to be getting significantly warmer? That is what all of the computer models are saying. From the UK Guardian:

French winemakers deploy candles, heaters and helicopters to save vines from frost
Sharp spring frosts are damaging production in some of France’s most famous winemaking regions, including Champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy, posing a threat to growers’ incomes.

Vineyards report temperatures plunged in all three regions last week, sometimes to below -7C (19°F), hurting shoots already well-developed because of earlier mild weather, and growers fear a new cold snap could cause more damage.

They have been using candles, heaters and even the down-draught from helicopters to try to save crops.

“All areas of the Champagne are hit to very varying degrees,” said Thibaut Le Mailloux from the Champagne Committee (CIVC) industry group. “It’s too early to estimate the extent of the damage, but the frost impact is worse than last year’s”.

France’s total wine output fell 10% last year due to adverse weather conditions. Champagne was the worst hit, with the harvest down more than 20% on the previous year due to spring frosts followed by other problems such as mildew.

CIVC said that on average 20 to 25% of vine shoots had been destroyed in Champagne by Tuesday, against 14% last year. That estimate did not take into account potential damage from overnight frosts in the past two days.

The line "the frost impact is worse than last year’s" is especially chilling - not just weather, this is climate change. Getting cooler.

Unreal - the political dogma is strong in those people. From the Washington Examiner:

Former EPA employees find new gigs as Trump protesters
Former Environmental Protection Agency employees are finding new gigs as climate change activists ahead of this weekend's climate protest in Washington.

Nearly 800 former employees, some of them directors and senior staff, sent a letter Thursday to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, White House officials and several others, blasting President Trump's "policy of denial" on global warming.

It is not a "policy of denial" if the warming is not happening. Look at the data, not at the computer models.

"As former employees of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we know that science is at the heart of the bipartisan progress our nation has made toward protecting public health and the environment," the letter read. "Yet as we mark the 47th Earth Day this month, the Trump administration and its supporters in Congress are turning their backs on science and what it tells us about the gravest environmental problem of our times — climate change."

So your precious rice bowl got taken away and now you are confused, hurt and stressed out. Welcome to real life - you now have to go and find a job in the private sector. I can understand why these people are in panic mode; they have zero usable skills.

All that rain - they had just finished clearing Highway 101 in Mendocino County (gorgeous stretch of road). From the North Coast Journal:

101 Closed Until at Least Next Week; Rain Forecast to Return
Caltrans is estimating a possible reopening of U.S. Highway 101 sometime mid-to-late next week and is warning travelers to expect detours of up to seven hours until the roadway can be safely reopened.

The initial slide that closed down both lanes north of Leggett on April 16 was followed a few days later by another that dumped as much — if not more material — than the first one, according to Caltrans. Special equipment is being airlifted into the area next week.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is forecasting another storm system to move into the area on Monday and Tuesday with 1 to 3 inches of rain expected in Del Norte and Humboldt counties and a half-inch to 1 inch of rain in Mendocino County.

The second slide was caught on video by Wendy Kornberg:

Ho Li Crap - that is a lot of dirt...

Not science, politics being manipulated to make a few people very rich - from The Daily Caller:

Al Gore’s New Group Demands $15 Trillion To Fight Global Warming

Hey Al - STFU - your fifteen minutes elapsed a long long time ago you pompous windbag.

Wet in the forecast

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Checked in at Cliff Mass' blog and HO. LI. CRAP!

Pacific Mega Moisture Plume Approaches the West Coast
It is the JAWS of Pacific moisture plumes. And it is now reaching our shores.

Today's satellite imagery is stunning... a wide plume of moisture stretching across the entire Pacific Ocean and headed for the Pacific Northwest. Let me show you.

First, a visible satellite image --what you would see from space--showing a continuous band of clouds, 1000 miles wide, stretching from the western Pacific to just off our coast. Scary.

20170423-wet.jpg

More at the site - we are in for some wet weather for the next while - ten day forecast is pretty grim.

Just wonderful - more rain

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Time to let up a bit doncha think? From Cliff Mass:

A Late April Precipitation Pattern I Have Never Seen Before
The model precipitation forecasts for the next few days is extraordinarily unusual for late April, with some aspects unique for any time of the year.

We are talking about an amazingly long and wide precipitation/moisture band coming from the west that will bring record amounts to some locations from northern CA to southern WA.

Let me show you what I mean and be prepared to be impressed.   I will start with the 24h precipitation ending 4 AM Monday from the UW WRF model (relatively coarse outer domain).  I have never seen anything like this:  a very wide band of precipitation stretching thousands of miles due east into the Pacific.  The width of the precipitation band is extremely unusual (very wide).

Much more at the site - lots of charts. This is not related to any pineapple express phenomenon, this is coming out of the west and headed straight for us. Had just under 0.1" this afternoon. Sky is completely overcast which is a bummer as we are still running a very high planetary K-Index so chances of aurora are good.

Doing his job - Trump and weather

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Just ran into this - an excellent piece of legislation. From Cliff Mass:

Major Weather Bill Signed by the President Today
A major piece of legislation designed to improve U.S. weather and seasonal prediction was signed today by President Trump.

The bill, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, will support a wide range of improvements in U.S. weather prediction, enhance tsunami warning capabilities, and even take on the important task of dealing with weather radar gaps around the nation.

A refreshing aspect about the bill was its overwhelming bipartisan support, including passage by unanimous consent in the Senate.  Sponsors of the bill were from both sides of the aisle.

Good - weather and the forecasting thereof. Not climate change or global warming. Build up a database of empirical data and compare it to the output of the models. Adjust the models to fit reality - not the other way around.

Lettuce in the news - Europe

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I had posted yesterday about the lettuce shortage with the California rains - a head of green leaf is selling for over $4 up here. I just remembered this post from February:

Not just here - poor growing in Europe
From Watts Up With That:

The New Maunder Minimum? Vegetable Shortages Strike London
The Sun reports that in London, some supermarkets are rationing purchases of vegetables like lettuce, which is in short supply due to Southern European crop failures.

SALAD SHORTAGE What is the 2017 vegetable shortage, which supermarkets are rationing broccoli and lettuce and what’s the cause of the crisis?
Tesco and Sainsbury’s are rationing iceburg lettuces and broccoli as cold weather in the Med causes a vegetable shortage.

Some more:

Read more: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2774614/vegetable-shortage-2017-supermarkets-rationing-broccoli-lettuce-crisis/

Why do I describe this as a possible early taste of Maunder Minimum like conditions? As WUWT has reported, solar activity has been unusually low this cycle, and appears to be trending downwards, leading to predictions we are entering a new solar grand minimum.

While the connection between solar activity and weather is controversial, in Europe, Solar Grand Minima appear to be associated with cold, rainy weather, and growing season difficulties.

Our Sun is a variable star and the regular solar cycles are at an all-time low when looking at the last 200 years or so. We need to address the idea of a 30-50 year period of abnormally low temperatures. This will have an impact on agriculture as well as energy costs. I am sitting here looking at a perfect example of this problem.

I am sticking with my story - the primary climate driver is our sun and CO2 is just a bogeyman brought out by people who are in this for political and financial gain.We need to concern ourselves with climate cooling much more than climate warming.

Scattered outages so far

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The wind has yet to materialize - I am not discounting it and still have my candles and LED table light ready to roll. Checked the Puget Sound Electric website and so far, there are only a couple hundred customers without power in the Blaine and Custer areas - both near the coast with very flat terrain.

A lot more customers down south are without power - 1,200 in Lake Tapps, about 1,000 in Puyallup, 3,900 in Bothell, 800 in Lacey, 1,600 in Olympia, and 2,300 in Oak Harbor. All told, 62 reports of areas with power loss. All of these areas are in the South Sound near Olympia.

Batten down the hatches - wind storm

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From Cliff Mass this morning:

Major Wind Event About to Hit Western WA
All hell is about to break loose around western Washington as a very strong April storm moves into our coastal waters.

The 10 AM infrared satellite image shows the swirl of the huge storm, with its center just offshore of the WA/OR border.

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More at the site. Wish I was in Seaside, Oregon with my video equipment right now.

I wish I was on the Oregon coast right now - going to be some gorgeous waves. From Cliff Mass:

Major Windstorm Heading for Pacific Northwest Coastal Waters
Confidence is now very high that an unusually strong coastal storm will move northward over the Pacific Northwest coastal waters on Friday morning before it makes landfall on northern Vancouver Island.

The Oregon coast will get hit particularly hard, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph. The latest European Center model forecast for 11 AM (below), shows a large low center due east of Astoria with a central pressure of 973 hPa (or mb). This is extraordinary low pressure for April and a rare event. Gusts are shown in color and reach 60-70 knots along the Oregon/southern WA coast. This means power outages along the coast.

Friday afternoon - prepare for power outages.

Our weakening sun

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Our sun is a variable star and goes through cycles of high output and low output. An example of low output was the Maunder and Dalton Minima when severely colder temperatures were recorded in Europe, Asia, South America and Africa. We are currently in the Modern Maximum which began in 1914.

As the sun's output weakens, the magnetic field around it decays and this doesn't deflect charged cosmic rays as much. Here are some numbers from NASA:

Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High
Planning a trip to Mars? Take plenty of shielding. According to sensors on NASA's ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft, galactic cosmic rays have just hit a Space Age high.

"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. "The increase is significant, and it could mean we need to re-think how much radiation shielding astronauts take with them on deep-space missions."

The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times, setting the stage for what Mewaldt calls "a perfect storm of cosmic rays."

"We're experiencing the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, "so it is no surprise that cosmic rays are at record levels for the Space Age."

So looking at 30-50 years minimum of significantly cooler weather. As more people die from cold than from heat, it is time for some rational decisions to be made and soon. I have firewood stacked up and a lot of trees on my property. City dwellers do not have that option.

Weather forecasting and not climate change. From the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research:

UCAR PRAISES PASSAGE OF WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING INNOVATION ACT
With the unanimous passage of legislation to improve weather research and prediction, Congress has taken a major step today toward strengthening the nation's resilience to severe weather and boosting U.S. economic competitiveness.

"This landmark legislation will save lives and property while providing business leaders with critical intelligence," said Antonio J. Busalacchi, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). "Today's bipartisan vote underscores the enduring value of scientific research to our nation."

The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act is the first major weather legislation since the early 1990s. It calls for more research into subseasonal to seasonal prediction, a priority for business and community leaders who need more reliable predictions of weather patterns weeks to months in advance. The bill also will strengthen short-term weather forecasts and smooth the way for research findings to be adopted by forecasters and commercial weather companies.

Improved short- and long-term weather predictions have major implications for public safety and the economy. The nation experienced 15 weather and climate disasters last year that cost $1 billion dollars or more, including tornadoes and widespread flooding that left dozens dead. Even routine weather events can affect transportation, supply chain management, consumer purchasing, and other sectors, with a collective impact of hundreds of billions of dollars on the U.S. economy.

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation, have estimated that weather forecasts provide an annual benefit to the American public of more than $30 billion, compared with about $5 billion spent on generating U.S. weather forecasts.

This is very good - the European forecasting model is a lot better than ours and we need to adopt it - from Ars Technica:

The European forecast model already kicking America’s butt just improved
The European forecast model already outperforms all of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including the North American GFS model. The most overt demonstration of the European model’s superiority came in the week before Hurricane Sandy’s devastating landfall in 2012. Out of more than a dozen computer forecasts, only it showed the storm veering along a path toward the East Coast of the United States instead of staying harmlessly out to sea.

Now the world’s best forecast model is getting better, and not just by a little bit. An upgrade that went live this week provides dramatic improvements to the resolution of the model, both for its deterministic forecast as well as the ensemble model runs that are used for forecasting conditions a week or more in the future. “What the European modeling community is doing is just amazing,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell, told Ars. “This is the golden age of weather forecasters. It’s an absolute wonder of computer modeling technology.”

Only issue is that this model deals with a lot more data and needs a supercomputer to run - unfortunately, from Cliff Mass, February 25, 2014:

Where is the National Weather Service's New Supercomputer?
It is nearly a year since the U.S. Congress supplied the money for a new cutting-edge National Weather Service weather supercomputer, using Superstorm Sandy supplemental funds.

The computer promised to greatly improve weather prediction in the U.S. and was cited as a "game changer" by the head of the National Weather Service.

It offered the U.S. a chance to finally catch up with or exceed the state-of-the-art predictions of the European Center, resulting in saved lives, improved warnings, and large economic benefits for the United States.

Now a year later, the computer has not even been ordered, while the the European Center has just secured a brand-new American computer to push the envelope of weather prediction far beyond that practiced in the U.S.

Politics as usual - some politician thinks that the computer manufacturers in their district are so much better than the manufacturers in any other districts that they stall until they get their slice of pork. Another example of the swamp that needs to be drained.

It is time for another bowl of popcorn - from Judicial Watch:

Climategate Update: Judicial Watch Sues for Records between Key Obama Administration Scientists Involved In Global Warming Controversies
Judicial Watch today announced it filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia asking the court to compel the U.S. Department of Commerce to turn over all records of communications between a pair of federal scientists who heavily influenced the Obama administration’s climate change policy and its backing of the Paris Agreement (Judicial Watch v. Department of Commerce (No. 1:17-cv-00541)).

The suit was filed after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”), a component of the Department of Commerce, failed to respond to a February 6 FOIA request seeking

    • All records of communications between NOAA scientist Thomas Karl and Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy John Holdren.
    • The FOIA request covers the timeframe of January 20, 2009 to January 20, 2017.

Karl, who until last year was director of the NOAA section that produces climate data, the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), was the lead author of a landmark paper that was reported to have heavily influenced the Paris Agreement.

Holdren, a former director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, director of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, and long-time proponent of strong measures to curb emissions.

John Holdren is a buffoon - I am seriously surprised that anyone out there still takes him seriously. The guy has made claim after claim about Global Warming for the last 30 years and not one of these claims have ever come - even remotly - to pass.

Putin gets it - global warming

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From Russia Insider:

Putin Tells Arctic Forum: Climate Change Real, But Not Man-Made
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that global warming is real but has been going on long before the "man-made effects" that climate science points to as its primary cause.

Speaking at the International Arctic Forum in Arkhangelsk on Thursday, Putin said (rushed transcript):

"What I’m about to say may be unpopular. But we will respect the various agreements and Russia will do just that, just like we abided by the Kyoto protocols. Yesterday I visited the French archipelago and back in 1930s I think, an Austrian pioneer and researcher visited that place and issued a description of the glacier and twenty years later an Italian king visited and found that ice cover had melted. This warming started back in the 1930s. And back then, we did not have not have these man-made effects, but the warming was already there. It's not a question of prevention, I agree with those who say it's not a matter of prevention because you can't prevent it. [Global warming] may be a global trend, a global cycle. A planetary cycle. You just need to adjust to that. "

Exactly - natural causes. The idea that we could influence the earth's climate is pure hubris.

Yikes - we are not in Kansas anymore

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From The Seattle Times:

Tornado touches down in Monroe, topples RVs
The National Weather Service says a weak tornado touched down in Monroe, Snohomish County, Thursday morning, toppling at least two RVs, throwing a trampoline in the air and damaging a car.

No one was injured.

The storm was reported about 10:30 a.m. in the area of West Main Street and 170th Drive, causing minor property damage, officials said.

Law enforcement and meteorologists quickly headed there to investigate, looking for clues to determine whether a tornado touched down, including whether the winds created a “swirling vortex” that caused damage in every direction, said Andy Haner, a weather service meteorologist. Surveillance video captured the event.

20170330-tornado.jpg

Photo by Mike Siegel - The Seattle Times

Goes to show, it is not IF, it is WHEN

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