Recently in Climate Category

Happy to be here - Northwest

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Looks like a stretch of some really nice PNW weather and looks like major suckage for the Northeast. From Cliff Mass:

Humidity Storm Hits the Northeast While the Northwest Has the Best Weather in the Nation
For those of you living in the Northwest, this is weather payoff time. Warm, but not too warm. Generally dry, but with a few showers next week to keep things moist enough to keep down the fires.

But the situation back east is different: in several places the humidity will be debilitating, with effective temperatures getting well above 100F.

As I talked about this week, the dew point temperature is a good measure of moisture in the atmosphere, and when summer dew points get into the mid-60s, it starts feeling "sticky" and unpleasant. Dew points in the 70s start getting really irritating and upper 70s, really bad. The National Weather Service dew point analysis at 8 AM EDT today show the national moisture divide. The eastern half of the nation is steamy, with dew points approaching 80F that extends into the New York area. In contrast, low dew points over the West.

More at the site. Yikes - not only high temps but high humidity as well. This is not unusual - used to live in Boston and we would get heat like this every 3-5 years. Glad I live here.

Great article from Reason:

The New York Times Says Heat Waves Are Getting Worse. The National Climate Assessment Disagrees.
Americans east of the Rockies are sweltering as daytime temperatures soar toward 100 degrees or more. It is now customary for journalists covering big weather events to speculate on how man-made climate change may be affecting them, and the current heat wave is no exception. Take this headline in The New York Times: "Heat Waves in the Age of Climate Change: Longer, More Frequent and More Dangerous."

As evidence, the Times cites the U.S. Global Change Research Program, reporting that "since the 1960s the average number of heat waves—defined as two or more consecutive days where daily lows exceeded historical July and August temperatures—in 50 major American cities has tripled." That is indeed what the numbers show. But it seems odd to highlight the trend in daily low temperatures rather than daily high temperatures.

As it happens, chapter six of 2017's Fourth National Climate Assessment reports that heat waves measured as high daily temperatures are becoming less common in the contiguous U.S., not more frequent.

Again, pushing the narrative and not the facts.

Wonderful fisking of a paper linking wildfires with global warming. From A Chemist In Langley:

Why Confounding Variables Matter – On that UVic study attributing the 2017 Extreme Fire Season to Climate Change
One of the downsides of my investigation of evidence-based environmental decision-making being a hobby, is my real life often gets in the way. This means I am not always able to comment on every interesting paper when it comes out. One such example is the paper that came out in January from the University of Victoria titled Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season. The paper has been a topic of intense conversation but very little critique. It is repeatedly cited by activists who have not read it, but feel the conclusions:

that the event’s high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2–4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7–11.

help their political narrative. I keep expecting to read a serious challenge of its results because it has a really obvious flaw that essentially eliminates its usefulness in quantifying anything; but I haven’t seen one to date. I am surprised because once you see how it treats confounding variables it is impossible to take its quantification seriously. In the rest of this blog post I will provide an explanation for this statement.

Much more at the site. ACIL proceeds to name four variables that are key actors in wildfire formation and were ignored in the paper. It is almost like they were trying to cherry-pick their data to fit some narrative. Or something.

Hurricane Barry

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Hitting the Gulf Coast pretty hard - from Breitbart:

Hurricane Barry’s rain and floods hammer Gulf environment
Hurricane Barry could affect the environment of the Gulf coast and Lower Mississippi Valley in numerous ways, from accelerating runoff of farmland nutrients to toppling trees and damaging wildlife habitat and fisheries, scientists say.

But the extent of the damage — and whether it will be at least partially offset by benefits such as disruption of the notorious Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” — is hard to predict, they say. That’s because the region faces a rare one-two-three punch : the storm’s anticipated tidal surge and torrential downpour, combined with record-high water levels in the Mississippi River.

“We don’t know how the system is going to respond to all this because it’s so unusual,” said Melissa Baustian, a coastal ecologist with the Water Institute of the Gulf in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

One of the wettest-ever springs in the nation’s heartland engorged the Mississippi, sending massive volumes of water southward toward the Gulf. Levees and dams were breached and millions of acres of cropland flooded in the Midwest. Barry threatens to hurl a storm surge of up to 3 feet (1 meter) onto coastal regions. And forecasters said the hurricane could stall inland and dump up to 2 feet (61 centimeters) of rain.

Rainfall washes manure and chemical fertilizers from Midwestern corn and soybean fields into streams, smaller rivers and eventually the Mississippi. The nutrients — especially nitrogen — overfeed aquatic plants that eventually die and decompose, leaving a large section of the Gulf with little or no oxygen each summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that this year’s dead zone will be roughly the size of Massachusetts.

This could be a nasty storm as the cone has it following the Mississippi River upstream.

More climate news

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An interesting set of research is being published. From Zero Hedge:

Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find "Man-made Climate Change Doesn't Exist In Practice"
A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which 'climate change' is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found "practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change" after a series of studies. 

“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers.

This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers' theory: "New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth's climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an 'umbrella effect'," the just published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily. The findings are hugely significant given this 'umbrella effect' — an entirely natural occurrence  could be the prime driver of climate warming, and not man-made factors

The scientists involved in the study are most concerned with the fact that current climate models driving the political side of debate, most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate sensitivity scale, fail to incorporate this crucial and potentially central variable of increased cloud cover. 

"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has discussed the impact of cloud cover on climate in their evaluations, but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it," comments Professor Hyodo in Science Daily. "This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect."

In their related paper, aptly titled, “No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic [man-made] climate change”, the Finnish scientists find that low cloud cover "practically" controls global temperatures but that “only a small part” of the increased carbon dioxide concentration is anthropogenic, or caused by human activity. 

I can see that. Geologic record has the CO2 concentration changing about 800 years after the global temperature changes. CO2 is a lagging indicator and not a driver. Besides, Earth's CO2 used to be 9,000PPM instead of today's 460PPM and we are doing just fine.

A Climate Realist - Barnaby Joyce

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From Thomas Lifson writing at American Thinker:

Former Aussie deputy PM becomes backbencher, suddenly tells the truth about global warming
You've probably never heard of Barnaby Joyce, but he has twice been deputy prime minister of Australia, from February 2016 to October 2017 and from December 2017 to February 2018. During both terms, he served as leader of Oz's National Party, which frequently allies with the country's biggest conservative party, called the "Liberal Party." The National Party was formerly known as "The Country Party" and represents farmers, grazers, and other rural residents.

Like the United States, Australia is subject to agitation for CO2 emissions reduction in the name of "saving the planet." As deputy P.M. serving in coalition under the leadership of warmist true believer Malcolm Turnbull, Joyce could not speak his mind for fear of those interests.

But the pendulum swings and now the Australian government is conservative.
Here is Mr. Jones' epic rant on Facebook:

“The very idea that we can stop climate change is barking mad. Climate change is inevitable, as geology has always shown.” These are the views of New Zealand lecturer of geology, David Shelley. A person vastly more competent than me and the flotilla of others telling the kids the world is going to end from global warming.

The central theme of David Shelley’s analysis is that sea levels are rising and have been for thousands of years and will fall during the next ice age which is expected about now, give or take a thousand years.
When the ice age does arrive temperatures will drop around ten degrees. A warmer planet will be a disconsolate chronicle and many, maybe most, will die from starvation as is the usual experience of man or beast in previous ice ages.

The weather is going to brutally win the population problem and the parliament of Australia has no power against it. One may suggest that warmer weather is the better problem of the two.

One of the few graces of being on the backbench is you can be honest with what your views really are. I believe this is one of the greatest policy phantoms, the misguided and quite ludicrous proposition that Australia can have any affect on the climate. If we could we should be the first to make it rain and, more importantly, stop the recurrence of an ice age anytime in the coming millennium.

Politics takes politics to the absurd. We have to absolutely affirm that our domestic settings can deal with a proposition which is stated quite clearly by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that: “In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

You don’t get the feeling when you listen to the political propaganda or the supporting lobbyists that there is any doubt about their capacity to “fix the climate problem” I do get the feeling that you will be tried for heresy if you dare question the zeitgeist so you basically have to lie about your honest assessment of what the hell we are doing to our economy, standard of living, our basic rights and the real future of our children.

Today, more than in the past, the political debate is set within a predetermined paradigm. Participants can not ague outside these preset boundaries. Maybe it is over cynical but I believe the promotion of the primacy of the state over the individual is very well served by the apparent necessity of climate policy.

Private property rights are removed, by the implementation of vegetation laws, because of “climate action”. The state will limit your access to electricity because of “climate action”. You will drive an electric car because of “climate action”. You will divest the nation of its largest export because of “climate action”. Rather than state there is no prospect whatsoever that any action of ours, and most likely of anyone else, will have any affect whatsoever on the trajectory climate is on.

We have instead the congenial narrative that we are all trying to make the world get cooler, but one path or the other path is the better alternative of cooling policies . We will do this by shutting down all our power stations, replacing them with windmills and rejiggering our nation away from our largest exports of mining and agricultural resources to carbon neutral tourism and the knowledge economy. Australia will be the catalyst to a global epiphany and the totalitarian Chinese regime will follow our lead because of our righteousness followed by India and the United States.

No, I don’t think that will happen. I hate to say it but I doubt the majority of people on the planet, give a toss about the Paris Agreement. I would be amazed if one percent of the planet could competently explain it.

I will make one prediction; after this is published it will be promptly followed by the remnants of the traditional media in furious pursuit of my heresy. Questions will be asked by the fourth estate and high octane derision will issue forth from the climate change actionistas.

No doubt I will be accused of not knowing what I am talking about, and when it comes to predicting the weather more than a fortnight or so out, that is true. But of those who ask the questions, will any of them truly understand what on earth are they are talking about?

A classic example of speaking truth to power. All the measured data point to a cooling period. All the computer models point to warming. Guess what one I believe?

Old Weather

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Very cool project - from their ABOUT page:

The Project
Old Weather volunteers explore, mark, and transcribe historic ship's logs from the 19th and early 20th centuries. We need your help because this task is impossible for computers, due to diverse and idiosyncratic handwriting that only human beings can read and understand effectively.

By participating in Old Weather you'll be helping advance research in multiple fields. Data about past weather and sea-ice conditions are vital for climate scientists, while historians value knowing about the course of a voyage and the events that transpired. Since many of these logs haven't been examined since they were originally filled in by a mariner long ago you might even discover something surprising.

About the Science
Millions of weather, ocean, and sea-ice observations recorded by mariners and scientists over the past 150 years are being recovered by Old Weather. These data are made freely available in digital formats suitable for climate model assimilation, retrospective analysis (reanalysis), and other kinds of research. The performance of data-assimilating modeling and extended reanalysis systems is greatly improved, the uncertainty of results (especially in sparsely observed regions like the Arctic) is reduced, and new long-period calibration and validation data sets are being created. As the historical data resource is extended farther back in time it will be possible to study a wider range of weather and climate phenomena and to better understand their impact on the Arctic and global environment, now and in the future.

Actually, really surprised that this wasn't started 30 years ago. We have lots of historical record spanning the globe. Time to compare it to the current climate and see how the current crop of computer models does.

Be sure to check out: Old Weather  There is also an Old Weather Blog and Forum

A big weather system is hitting Louisiana. A couple of clickable headlines:

From The Weather Channel:

Tropical Storm Barry Likely to Form in Gulf of Mexico, May Become a Hurricane; Flooding, Surge, Wind Threats Ahead

    • A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
    • It will eventually strengthen into Tropical Storm Barry, and become a hurricane before landfall this weekend.
    • Tropical storm, hurricane and storm-surge watches could be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
    • The track of future Barry remain a bit uncertain.
    • A major threat of rainfall flooding is in play over the northern Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley.
    • Storm surge flooding is also likely, particularly to the east of future Barry's track.

And the cone - from the National Hurricane Center:

20190710-cone.jpg

Time to batten down the hatches. It will be interesting to see if all the post-Katrina money was well spent.

Staring down the barrel - JAWS

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Time to cue the soundtrack - it is going to be a wet week - from Cliff Mass:

JAWS is Making Landfall on the Northwest Coast
Yes, JAWS.

A July Abnormally Wet System (JAWS) is approaching the Northwest coast as I write this blog. The view from space is scary and unusual for this time of the year. It looks like a November satellite image.

20190709-jaws01.jpg

The latest high-resolution UW WRF model forecast shows the rain coming into Puget Sound this evening--earlier on the coast and to the southwest.

During the next few days, western Washington and Oregon should be wetted down, with potentially several inches in the high elevations of the Olympics, north Cascades, and mountains of southern BC (see below...total accumulation through 5 PM Friday). The heaviest rain will be overnight tonight, but there will be plenty of showers tomorrow.

Glad to see a brief respite for Saturday - two events I am planning to attend. Sunday will start up with JAWS II and JAWS III is tentatively penciled in for July 19 and 22. It will have even bigger (or wetter) teeth.

Solid overcast and starting to spit some rain.

Wet times ahead

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A system is forecast to head north through Vancouver Island and it looks wet. Very very wet. From Cliff Mass:

British Columbia is About to Be Inundated
If you are heading north to a vacation in British Columbia, you might turn around. It is going to be extraordinarily wet up there.

Bad for outdoor fun, very good for suppressing wildfires.

You won't believe what I am about to show you. First, here is the predicted total precipitation through 5 PM Saturday. Cross the international border and you will get drenched, with some locations getting 2-5 inches. And this is supposedly the dry season.

Downright soggy. Heading up to Bellingham Monday and then out to the farm. See what happens.

From The Beeb:

Mexico hail: Ice 1.5m thick carpets Guadalajara
Six suburbs in the Mexican city of Guadalajara were carpeted in a thick layer of ice after a heavy hailstorm.

The ice was up to 1.5m (5ft) thick in places, half-burying vehicles

Civil protection machinery was deployed to clear streets in the city of five million located north of the capital, Mexico City.

20190701-hail.jpg

France just published its record high temperature but, the sensor used to record this was located near a commercial greenhouse and an asphalt highway - both sources of heat. The cause is the flow of air from the Sahara - unusual for this time of year but not unheard of.

From Watts Up With That:

France’s new ‘hottest recorded temperature ever’ is in question – guess where it was measured?
‘France has its hottest recorded temperature ever’.

But they don’t mention that where it was recorded was next to a concrete drain, and a steel chain mesh fence close to a bitumen (asphalt) highway.

So much for only using correctly placed instruments in a Stevenson Screen in a open space away from unnatural heat source.

Plenty of Google Street View photos at the site. They also quote this from Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer:

When Saharan air reaches Europe, it’s going to be hot. Regarding record-high measurements, it is legitimate to ask about the placement of temperature sensors, as well as the length of temperature records.

For a record length of, say, 100+ years and NO long term warming trend, it is still expected from random weather variations that new record high temperatures will be recorded from time to time.

The recent record high in Miami, FL was made in the middle of a vast concrete jungle that did not exist 100 years ago, and now averages 10 deg. F warmer at night than rural surroundings.

And for the rest of the world there are these links at this post:

Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists
A surprising late-June chill broke records for lowest temperatures and made life miserable for many across the world. From Denver, Colorado, in the United States, to Melbourne in Australia, the mercury dropped precipitously.

Many people in Colorado woke up to what would be the state’s coldest first day of summer in 90 years. Up to two feet of snow fell in some places, making authorities issue a winter weather advisory on the first day of summer. Denver especially has been at the center of focus. Record cold caught city dwellers off guard. This year has been the “city’s coldest start to a calendar year since 1983.”

The National Weather Service reported the coldest maximum temperature during the second half of June since 1992 at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, and news outlets reported that it was unusual for the windy city to experience such low temperatures in the beginning of summer. 

On the other side of the world, Australia saw many cities record their coldest first few weeks of winter. Melbourne, on June 23, recorded its lowest maximum for the date since 1985.

And back in the Northern Hemisphere, central England experienced similar historic lowsin June, although the temperature was forecasted to pick up the following week due to a heatwave.

But the cooling observed is not just limited to the surface temperatures.

There has been a remarkable cooling in the global oceans, especially the Atlantic and the Pacific. This was totally unexpected, as scientists had forecast a strong warming in the oceans for this month, a weather condition called El Niño.

More at the site - this post also mentions the sun:

We might be headed to what NASA describes as a period of “solar minimum,” with temperatures akin to the Little Ice Age that froze Northern Europe in the 16th century.

In its official June 12 communication, NASA stated, “The Sun’s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.”

We are seeing a little bit of this with this years flooding in the mid-west. Only about 75% of the corn and grain crops were able to be planted so food prices are going to be a lot higher than normal.

I am worried about this. The good news is that the increase in CO2 means more vigerous plant growth - CO2 is plant food after all and it is one of the key components to Photosynthesis - no CO2? No Plants.

Yikes - heat wave in Europe

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Things are not good over there - from weather.com:

European Heat Wave Shatters June Records in 6 Nations and France Set a New All-Time Record
A heat wave currently baking western Europe has already set new all-time June record highs in six nations and an all-time record high in France as an intense dome of high pressure taps into hot air from northern Africa.

An all-time record high was preliminarily smashed in France on Friday when a temperature of 114.6 degrees Fahrenheit was reported in Gallargues-le-Montueux, in southern France. In addition, at least 12 stations saw temperatures higher than the previous national record on Friday. The previous all-time record high for any month was 111.4 degrees, set on Aug. 12, 2003.

This also marked the first time the 45 degree Celsius threshold (113 degrees F) was reached in France, according to Meteo France and is the hottest day ever measured in June for the country.

We need to remember that this is weather and not climate. An isolated instance but still, one for concern.

Cliff Mass writes about one of the benefits of global cooling. He actually still thinks that it is warming but still... From his website:

A Quieter Than Average Wildfire Season So Far
With all the talk this spring of a severe and early wildfire season in the Northwest, the opposite appears to be occurring.  Currently, there are no major fires in Washington or British Columbia, with one small fire (140 acres) in Oregon.

Compare this situation to last year, when there were  already a number of large fires in British Columbia.  As shown by the NOAA HRRR smoke model, the air is smoke-free over the Northwest (there are fires over the Southwest)

Looking more broadly, the Year to Date fire statistics for the entire U.S. (from the U.S. Interagency Fire Center) shows that there have been less fires and less acreage burned this year than any time in at least 10 years (see below).  But for the Northwest, it is even better than that, since most of the fires so far have been Alaska.

A key factor in this smoke free situation has been the normal weather conditions with precipitation and clouds that we have "enjoyed" much of the month.  Of particular note has been a persistent trough of low pressure over the region the last few weeks.  As a result, fuel moistures have been reasonable and the official North American fire danger map shows low danger over much of the Northwest, BC, and Alberta.

Wonderful news. Glad to see the Modern Warming Period slipping into the history books. Worried about the upcoming solar minimum.

About that global warming

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From Connecticut's The Stamford Advocate:

Colorado's snowpack is 40 times normal after rare summer solstice dump
On summer's opening day, up to 20 inches of snow buried the high terrain of the Colorado Rockies, boosting the state's snowpack to extraordinary levels for the time of year.

The solstice flakes marked a continuation of a snowy stretch that began in January and February and lingered through spring. Even before the solstice snow, The Denver Post wrote, the state's snowpack was "in virtually every numerical sense . . . off the charts." At the time, the snowpack was 751 percent above normal.

Due to the new snow Friday into the weekend, the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that the state's snowpack ballooned to 4,121 percent above normal as of Monday. This number is so high because ordinarily very little snow is left by late June, and cold temperatures late into the spring helped preserve what fell earlier.

Not only extra snow but also a pronounced lack of... wait for it... warming.

Unreal - from Vanity Fair:

TRUMP DEALS FINAL DEATH BLOW TO THE PLANET
In the 476 months that he’s been in office, Donald Trump has made it abundantly clear that he would like the earth to die in a fire—literally. In that time he has abandoned the Paris climate agreement; unveiled a proposal to freeze rules on planet-warming pollution from cars and trucks; claimed wind turbines aren’t a viable source of energy because the sound they make “causes cancer”; and hired a guy who believes carbon dioxide has been demonized like “Jews under Hitler” to discredit the findings of 13 federal agencies that increased levels of CO2 pose a national emergency. But it was only today that his pièce de résistance, when it comes to letting climate change really rip, was officially put into place.

Where to start... 476 months? 476/12 = 39.66 years.
Trump never said: "earth to die in a fire"
None of the Paris climate agreement signatories have followed the proscriptions
Dr. Happer's "Jews under Hitler" quote is a fabrication - first published in the NY Times, never redacted.
The 13 federal agencies are affiliated with NASA and the NWS - both have become heavily politicized and need to be cleaned out.

One little bit more from the article:

On Wednesday, the administration officially replaced Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan with an alternative it cooked up called the Affordable Clean Energy rule.

The Clean Power Plan never went into effect. The U.S. Supreme Court issued a stay on its implementation in 2016.

From The Daily Caller:

NATIONAL PARK QUIETLY REMOVED WARNING THAT GLACIERS ‘WILL ALL BE GONE’ BY 2020 AFTER YEARS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
The National Park Service (NPS) quietly removed a visitor center sign saying the glaciers at Glacier National Park would disappear by 2020 due to climate change.

As it turns out, higher-than-average snowfall in recent years upended computer model projections from the early 2000s that NPS based its claim glaciers “will all be gone by the year 2020,” federal officials said.

“Glacier retreat in Glacier National Park speeds up and slows down with fluctuations in the local climate,” the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which monitors Glacier National Park, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

“Those signs were based on the observation prior to 2010 that glaciers were shrinking more quickly than a computer model predicted they would,” USGS said. “Subsequently, larger than average snowfall over several winters slowed down that retreat rate and the 2020 date used in the NPS display does not apply anymore.”

There is yet another example of using a computer model instead of just walking outside and doing some measurements. We are entering a cooling period and need to plan for that.

Heh - from Climate Depot:

Australian government pays Al Gore $320k to conduct climate training as rare snowfall hits
Aussie Alan Jones: Taxpayers will fork out more than $320,000 for the Climate Week conference, where form US vice president Al Gore will “communicate the urgency of the climate crisis”.“It is not believable,” says Alan Jones, “that the Queensland government can be so awash with money as to bring this hypocrite Al Gore to Australia for a conference.“When so many important instruments of government are underfunded, when farmers can’t feed their cattle in Queensland, and $320,000 goes to waste on this shonk.”

Jo Nova: Fittingly, The Gore effect strikes again. Snow fell in Queensland.

20190604-au.png

Gore Effect? Here: Gore Effect

Our sun is very very quiet and this is getting noticed by the public media.

Our changing climate

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Colder and wetter - a two-fer:

First from Bloomberg:

The Wettest, Wildest Planting Season U.S. Farmers Can Remember
There has never been a spring planting season like this one. Rivers topped their banks. Levees were breached. Fields filled with water and mud. And it kept raining.

Food is going to get a lot more expensive - corn and grains are used for animal feed too.

Second - Microsoft News:

More weather woes for farmers: ‘There will be a lot of acres not planted'
How best to describe the situation faced by U.S. farmers after continued rain and flooding?

"It's like we are trying to plant on top of a lake!" wrote Nebraska farmer Ed Brummels in a recent Twitter post.

The situation does not look to improve for farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt. AccuWeather is predicting the pattern of rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue, with storms over part of the flood-stricken areas into midweek. Also, the southern half of the Corn Belt is in the path of downpours expected later this week.

"If you're along the Ohio River and you don't have your corn planted by Wednesday, you may not plant anything additional because you may get three inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Corn and soybean planting remain well off pace, according to Monday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress compared to the average from 2014-18.

The Crop Progress indicated just 67% of corn was planted in 18 key corn-producing states. The 2014-18 average for corn planted by June 2nd is 96%, so planting is off 30.2% in comparison.

Like I said - stock up on stuff while the prices are reasonable.

We are now beginning Hurricane Season - from Accuweather:

Tropical threat may brew in Gulf of Mexico as Atlantic hurricane season officially begins
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for potential tropical activity into early week.

A broad area of unsettled weather located near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche this weekend.

Happy happy joy joy...

The Mississippi River is the major conduit for shipping grain from the midwest to southern manufacturers and animal feed operations as well as the port of New Orleans. From Reuters:

Flood-swollen Mississippi River closed to shipping at St. Louis: U.S. Coast Guard
The U.S. Coast Guard said it closed the Mississippi River near St. Louis to boat and barge traffic on Friday as excessive rains and heavy snow melt this spring swelled the major shipping waterway to near record levels.

And more rain is forecast:

Water levels are forecast to steadily recede over the next two weeks, but that outlook could change as more rain is expected across the Midwest next week. The NWS said its river level forecast considers current conditions and expected precipitation about 24 hours into the future.

About that global warming? Here are some headlines:

Cooler and overcast here.

Weather woes

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Prayers going out to the Eastern US - serious tornado warnings for tonight. Huge flooding in the Central US.

A chilling graph from farmer Nelson Reus:

Here is the graph cropped and rotated:

20190527-reus.jpg

As a reminder - from Infogalactic:

Dalton Minimum
The Dalton Minimum was a period of low sunspot count, representing low solar activity, named after the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830 or 1796 to 1820, corresponding to the period solar cycle 4 to solar cycle 7.

Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

To re-cap, a period of about 30 to 40 years of significantly coler weather caused by low solar output. Our sun is a naturally variable star. It is the primary driver of our climate - not fossil fuel use.

Global warming at its finest

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From Los Angeles station KTLA:

Mammoth Mountain to Stay Open Into August After Recording Its Snowiest May Ever
After receiving a record amount of snow for May, Mammoth Mountain on Friday announced it would be extending its ski and snowboard season into August.

Only two previous seasons have lasted into August – in 2017 and 1995 – according to Mammoth Snowman, a site that tracks resort news.

With one week left in the month, Mammoth has already received 29 inches of snow, the most ever recorded in the month of May. The total beats the previous record of 28 inches, set in May 2015.

Tell me again how we are causing the Earth to warm up?

If at first you do not succeed...

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First, the term of art was Global Warming. Then it morphed into a more general Climate Change. And now, this - from Legal Insurrection:

Green justice advocates may soon rebrand “Climate Change”
Green justice advocates and the political minions that cater to them may soon rebrand the phrase, “Climate Change.”

A new study, conducted by a specialty neurological research group, indicates the current term does not adequately gin-up angst in listeners.

New York City-based SPARK Neuro, a neuroanalytics company that measures emotion and attention, studied how participants responded to six terms — “climate crisis,” “environmental destruction,” “environmental collapse,” “weather destabilization,” “global warming” and “climate change.”

A total of 120 people — 40 Republicans, 40 Democrats and 40 independents — participated in the study, which measured the “emotional intensity” of responses to audio recordings of various controversial phrases, with each term inserted, like this example below:

“Sea levels will rise dramatically, to the point that many coastal cities will be submerged, as a result of [INSERT TERM].”

The electrical activity of the participants’ brains and skin was rated on a scale of zero to five — five being the strongest. Those results were then compared to a traditional survey for reference.

Two terms stood out from the pack: climate crisis and environmental destruction.

Spencer Gerrol, CEO of SPARK Neuro, indicated that generating strong emotion inspires people to act. It seems “climate change” and “global warming” are outdated and overused.

It does not adequately gin-up angst in listeners because the average listener does not believe that human-caused Global Warming exists. The scientific data sure do not show it. Global Warming is a political thing and not a scientific thing.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

'Winter storm warning' issued for Sierra in mid-May
With a moisture-rich atmospheric river taking aim at Northern California, the National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning for the northern Sierra Nevada. It is in effect from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

A bit more:

"We do get storms in May but the strength of this storm is anomalous," said Brendon Rubin-Oster, a forecaster with the NWS's Sacramento office. "We're getting a winter caliber system in May."

When the storm reaches its height in intensity Wednesday night, the bull's eye will likely be centered over Yosemite and Tuolumne County, where 2 to 2.5 feet of snow could fall between Wednesday and Friday. Rubin-Oster warns Highway 120 through Yosemite National Park could see significant snow.

What are you going to believe - the output from some computer model or your eyes. The hype that we only have 12 years to "DO SOMETHING" is abject bullshit.

Cold weather

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Had to put on a jacket when working outside - overcast and 50's. From Cliff Mass:

A Wet Period Ahead for the U.S. West Coast
The first half of May has been generally dry and warm over the Pacific Northwest, but soon everything will change.

The second half of the month promises to be cool and wet in Washington and Oregon, with northern California swamped by highly unusual amounts of rain. As we shall see, this wet period has highly positive implications for the upcoming wildfire/smoke season.

More at the site. The ten-day forecast for here is mostly cloudy and high 50's / low 60's

So wrong on so many levels

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Education needs to be just that. Education is not indoctrination and conflating the two is child abuse.

From Nature:

Children can foster climate change concern among their parents
The collective action that is required to mitigate and adapt to climate change is extremely difficult to achieve, largely due to socio-ideological biases that perpetuate polarization over climate change. Because climate change perceptions in children seem less susceptible to the influence of worldview or political context, it may be possible for them to inspire adults towards higher levels of climate concern, and in turn, collective action. Child-to-parent intergenerational learning — that is, the transfer of knowledge, attitudes or behaviours from children to parents — may be a promising pathway to overcoming socio-ideological barriers to climate concern. Here we present an experimental evaluation of an educational intervention designed to build climate change concern among parents indirectly through their middle school-aged children in North Carolina, USA. Parents of children in the treatment group expressed higher levels of climate change concern than parents in the control group. The effects were strongest among male parents and conservative parents, who, consistent with previous research, displayed the lowest levels of climate concern before the intervention. Daughters appeared to be especially effective in influencing parents. Our results suggest that intergenerational learning may overcome barriers to building climate concern.

The full paper is paywalled so no word as to who funded this progressive garbage. The climate change people have no data backing them up. They have to resort to rhetoric.

Climate update - 12 seconds

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This is horrible - from the Babylon Bee:

Update: We Now Have Only 12 Seconds Left Until Climate Change Destroys The Planet
A new update issued by watchdog groups on climate change indicated this afternoon that we only have 12 seconds left until climate change destroys the planet.

We previously thought we had just 12 years, then 10 years, but the latest update indicates that we have well under a minute.

"The earth will be totally destroyed in the next, oh, 12 seconds," said Beto O'Rourke at a rally. "If you don't give the government a bunch of money and power, it will happen. Trust me."

"So hand over the cash, guys," he said. "Like, now. I'm super serious."

This tragic development means that humanity won't have time to correct climate change, and our writers probably won't even have time to finish thi

Needless to say, the Bee is a satire site.

From Los Angeles station KTLA:

Sierra Snowpack Is Measured at 188% of Average in Final Survey of the Year
California water officials say cities and farms can expect ample water supplies this summer after winter storms blanketed the Sierra Nevada, nearly doubling the snowpack average for this time of year.

The Department of Water Resources said Thursday the fifth and final survey at Phillips Station recorded 47 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 27.5 inches. That’s 188 percent of average for the location near Lake Tahoe.

And our Sun still remains quiet and very sunspot-free.

Looks like things are colder than usual - a few weather reports from Russia (Google Translate):

We beat records!
The Far East set the following minimum temperature records for April 22: the city of Svobodny (Amur Oblast) -10.6 (previous record: -8.9 in 2001). In Blagoveshchensk it was -7.5 degrees. The last record was recorded in 1937 and amounted to -7.1. The Jewish Autonomous Region is also with new records: in the village of Ekaterino-Nikolskoye -6.6 degrees, and the previous record was set in 1991 -6. On the European territory of Russia, the situation is also non-standard. Thanks to the anticyclone, the northern regions are well heated, and in the south the temperature is noticeably below normal. Here it is no higher than +15, and at night the frosts to -1… -6 were again noted. In Stavropol, a new record for the minimum temperature for April 22: the air has cooled to -2.2! The previous record was in 1993 -1.5 degrees.

Record cold Volga
IA "Meteonovosti" / 13:37 Sunday, April 21 anticyclone , which spreads over the southern half of the European territory, in the last days provide a record cold weather . The average daily air temperature is 4-6 degrees lower than the multi-year values. In a number of settlements of the Volga region, which has already been a day in a row, changes are made to instrumental weather observations .

Return of winter in Central Russia
In Central Russia, the last Sunday, April 14, was the coldest day since the beginning of the month. In the south of the Moscow region, in the Tula, Kaluga and Ryazan regions, the maximum temperature did not exceed +1.

The winter of the
The cold front was the culprit in the weather changes at the beginning of the week in Siberia and the Urals. The temperature in Yekaterinburg on the night of April 17 was a record low for these days, -10.4 degrees. And in the afternoon the temperature only approached zero, It was -1.2 degrees. On average, the day temperature almost 11 degrees was below the climatic norm. Moreover, spring spoiled the inhabitants of the Urals with the spring heat, in April the thermometer columns already reached 15..19 degrees. Moreover, a sharp cooling was accompanied by snow with blizzard, ice and gusts of wind.

And it is not just Russia - West Australia:

Good Friday cold blast in Albany brings April snow to WA for first time in 49 years

Morocco:

Snowfall and thunderstorms this weekend in some parts of Morocco

Alaska:

Another record snowfall, sunshine returns soon

Turkey:

Black winter came back! Snowfall was effective in many cities yağ Breaking news
While the spring weather was expected to come forward, the news of the snow started to come from many parts of the country. While Kars and Van, who had been living in the Black Winter for months, turned white again, many cities of the Central Anatolia Region encountered snow in April. Although it is closed in the season, it is stated that the ski slopes can be re-opened in Uludag where heavy snowfall continues.

Tell me again about that global warming theory...

Our quiet sun - cosmic rays

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UPDATE BELOW:

Interesting article at NASA's Spaceweather:

A Perfect Storm of Cosmic Rays
Ten years ago, NASA reported a “perfect storm of cosmic rays.” During the year 2009, radiation peppering Earth from deep space reached a 50-year high, registering levels never before seen during the Space Age.

It’s about to happen again.

Ground-based neutron monitors and high-altitude cosmic ray balloons are registering a new increase in cosmic rays. The Oulu neutron monitor in Finland, which has been making measurements since 1964, reports levels in April 2019 only percentage points below the Space Age maximum of 2009:

Much more at the site. Another indication that our suns output is unusually low. Quiet sun = global cooling.
Here is the website for the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station

UPDATE - a perfect example of Quiet sun = global cooling. From the Detroit Free Press:

Snow expected in metro Detroit this weekend. We give up.
Enjoy the warm, dry weather this afternoon, because it's about to change.

Rain – possibly even snow –  is expected to start tonight and last into next week, according to the National Weather Service in White Lake.  Minor flooding is possible, the agency said.

Showers are expected to start Thursday after 5 p.m., becoming heavy at times, and last into Friday.

Rain and light snow is expected for Saturday night. 

What catastrophic warming?

Forecasting the weather is like herding cats - easy in the short term but things go awry in a short span of time. Some people have looked at this and determined the limit is two weeks - from the American Meteorological Society:

What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?
Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) and identical-twin experiments of the U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that the predictability limit for midlatitude weather may indeed exist and is intrinsic to the underlying dynamical system and instabilities even if the forecast model and the initial conditions are nearly perfect. Currently, a skillful forecast lead time of midlatitude instantaneous weather is around 10 days, which serves as the practical predictability limit. Reducing the current-day initial-condition uncertainty by an order of magnitude extends the deterministic forecast lead times of day-to-day weather by up to 5 days, with much less scope for improving prediction of small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms. Achieving this additional predictability limit can have enormous socioeconomic benefits but requires coordinated efforts by the entire community to design better numerical weather models, to improve observations, and to make better use of observations with advanced data assimilation and computing techniques.

In plain english, the outmost limit for accuracy is about two weeks.

Our cooling climate

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From Accuweather:

Chicago sees latest snowfall of season in more than 50 years
Spring arrived weeks ago in the Windy City, but then on Sunday winter made an abrupt return bringing significant snowfall to Chicago as well as places in Missouri, Indiana and Michigan.

Chicago's O'Hare Airport was whitened by 5.3 inches of snow on Sunday. That made April 14 one of the top-two snowiest days this late in the season. The snowiest day in the city's history from April 14 to early May is 5.4 inches of snow on April 16, 1961.

And 1961 was the time that scientists were noticing a cooling trend. We have passed through the Modern Warm period and getting back to the Sun's normal cycle.

Tip of the fedora to Kim DuToit for the link.

It's here - bomb cyclone

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Wrote about it two days ago - the forecasts were accurate and it is hitting hard. From AccuWeather:

'Historic springtime snowstorm' wallops Rockies, north-central US as it intensifies
Snow is coming down fast and furious in the Rockies and north-central U.S. and is expected to accumulate up to 30 inches in some pockets. Meanwhile, thunder and lightning are accompanying the intense snowfall in some areas.

The storm blasted parts of the West with heavy rain, heavy mountain snow, power-cutting winds and blowing dust on Tuesday with more on the way into Wednesday night. The early stages of the storm knocked out power to 50,000 in the Los Angeles area and kicked up dramatic dust storms in Nevada.

The already massive storm will continue to gain strength across the nation's heartland into Thursday, bringing everything from damaging winds to blizzard conditions, flooding rain and severe weather.

This is going to really hurt agriculture - stock up on staples because food prices are going to spike. That plus, there is a really good indication that we are headed for a major cooling trend.

From Watts Up With That:

Another “bomb cyclone” to hit the Midwest this week with heavy snow
A near-repeat of March’s “bomb cyclone” will bring up to 30 inches of snow this week to portions of Minnesota and South Dakota, with blizzard conditions and a threat of severe thunderstorms.

Roughly the same area that experienced flooding rains in March — and still trying to dry out enough to plant corn and soybeans — will see another round of heavy rain and heavy snow. The forecast location of the intense cyclone as of Thursday morning April 11 shows it taking a similar path to the record-setting March storm

Stock up on staples - this is going to be an expensive year for food.

Checked out the Infrared Weather Satellite image from UW - looks like the Pineapple Express broke up a bit and passed to the South of Puget Sound. Dodged that one.

20190407-satellite.gif

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