Recently in Climate Category

News from Wisconsin - from the Madison, WI NBC affiliate:

Wisconsin vineyards hurting after cold, wet spring
September is harvest time for Wisconsin vineyards, but several saw much smaller crop yields this year, or even none at all.

Owners said the weather in 2019 is the problem, especially the bitterly cold winter and a wet spring.

Peter Botham, co-owner and winemaker at Botham's Vineyards and Winery in Barneveld, is one grape grower who struggled this season.

How bad are things:

However, in 2019, for the first time in 27 years, Botham is not harvesting at all.

"For growing grapes, it could not have been worse this summer," he said.

The cold winter burned the buds for the grapes, and the wet spring and summer made it hard for grapes to ripen. Botham's vineyard saw so little fruit that he did not think he could harvest.

"You'd see a lot of purple right now and all you see right now is green," he said.

The article also mentions a second winery that suffered a 60% crop loss. We are entering a time of increased cold.

Facts and data, not narrative.

Stormy weather - Gale warnings

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Looks like we are in for a spot of weather - from the National Weather Service:

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WIND...Possibly rising to 25 to 35 kt after midnight tonight into Tuesday morning.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to 47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their plans.

Yikes - high rainfall

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It hasn't rained very much here but in the Cascades?

Here is the current flow of the Stillaguamish river near Arlington, WA:

20190915-stilly.png

Somebody got dumped on. That is a lot of water - over ten times the daily average.

Last week's deluge was just a foreshadowing. From Cliff Mass:

Two Strong Fronts will Bring Unusual Amounts of September Rainfall
If the model forecasts are correct, this is going to be one of the wettest Septembers in recent memory. And it is clear: wildfire season is over.

The first act starts tonight as a strong front moves in this evening. The coastal radar is being overhauled--so I can't show you an ominous radar view. But the latest infrared satellite image is impressive--particularly for September.

And the quantity?

Now...are you ready to be meteorologically shocked?  Here is the accumulated precipitation total through 5 PM Tuesday.  Amazing.  Big areas of 2-5 inches.  Lots of rain in eastern Washington.

Lot's more at his site - satellite photos and forecasts. Wet.

We need this. July and August were drier than usual so we can use the replenished groundwater. Also glad that the burn-ban is over. I have been cleaning up a lot of downed trees and limbs in preperation for getting the farm listed this spring. Got quite the burn pile going - time for a bonfire.

Convective weather

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We have been having some pretty spectacular weather last week. Saturday's thunderstorms were wonderful. There was also quite a rain event in Everett last Monday night. From Cliff Mass:

Super Heavy Rain in Everett Causes Flooding
On Monday night, an intense convective cell parked itself over Everett producing very heavy rain, sewer overflows, and flooding that closed some roads and Everett High School.

Steve Link's twitter feed showed some of the action:

How much rain?  During the 11h ending 11 PM Monday, there was about 3 inches (see below)..and much of that fell between 5 and 7:15 PM Monday.  Surrounding areas had a few tenths or less.

Three inches? I would start building an ark. Quite the deluge.

James Cameron in the media

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The guy will not shut up - from Jim Treacher writing at PJ Media:

James Cameron Wants You to 'Wake the F*** Up' About This Supposed Climate Crisis
James Cameron hasn't made a good movie since Bush was president. The first Bush. But Cameron is far richer and more famous than peasants like us, so he gets to scold us for simply trying to live our lives. The society that made him insanely wealthy hasn't reverted back to living in caves, and he's madder than Sarah Connor in an Apple Store.

Matt Donnelly, Variety:

Suzy Amis Cameron has led a charge toward plant-based eating in efforts to reduce the dramatic carbon footprint that meat protein creates. James Cameron, the filmmaker behind classics such as “Titanic,” has woven climate-conscious themes into franchises like “Avatar.” He tells Variety the forthcoming three sequels will do the same.

The two are investors in the plant-based company Verdient Foods and contribute to numerous eco-causes, including Global Green and Oceana. Cameron does not mince words in sharing his thoughts on apathy about the climate crisis.

“People need to wake the f–k up,” the Oscar winner says. “We’re going the wrong direction as fast as possible. I like to say that we’re like Thelma and Louise. We’re driving straight toward the canyon at 90 miles per hour with the radio cranked up and the top down.”

It's fitting that Cameron referenced a movie that's better than anything he'll ever do again. Then he flew back to his massive compound on his private jet.

If Cameron really believed what he's saying, he'd stop making movies. That industry has a huge carbon footprint. But not only is he making a sequel to Avatar, a movie everybody has forgotten about already, he's planning four sequels. Avatar 5 is scheduled for release in 2027, which will be tough to do if we've already driven off the cliff with the radio cranked up and the top down. He doesn't actually think we're all doomed, or there'd be nobody left to buy tickets for his crummy movies.

I have said it before and will say it again. I will believe that there is a climate crisis when the people who are telling me that there is a climate crisis start acting like there is a climate crisis.

Case in point - Obama's $14 million dollar beachfront compound in Martha's Vinyard.

A bit dark but...

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Saw this nice convective cloud on my way home last evening.

20190909-cloud.jpg

No lightning but conditions were there.

All the rains - the Stillaguamish river

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This is the flow gauge for the Stillaguamish River at Arlington, WA. You can see the extremely low flow resulting from the autumn lack of rainfall. You can also see the results of the recent heavy rains. The little triangular dots are the average water levels:

20190909-stilly.png

Last night's thunderstorms

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Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass had an excellent post-mortem on last night's storms.

Major Convective Event, with Heavy Rain, Lightning and Thunder, Moving Through Puget Sound
An unusual major lightning/thunder event is occurring over Puget Sound, delaying the UW Husky Game.

And interestingly, the UW WRF model forecast the event earlier in the day.

The radar at 8:15 PM shows the action, with the red colors being very heavy precipitation within convection.

More at the site. An unusual event for this area. A welcome one for me - I love lightning.

Hurricane Dorian update

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From Canada's Global News:

City of Edmonton declares climate emergency
Edmonton city council officially declared a climate emergency on Tuesday.

Ten councillors voted in favour of making the declaration, while also paving the way for actionable steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Edmonton.

Council passed two resolutions Tuesday: a plan to respond to climate change – with a revised Community Energy Transition Strategy – and the climate emergency declaration.

“This is a response to science first and foremost,” Mayor Don Iveson said. “I’m very comfortable in taking an evidence-based approach to this policy question.

Hey Mayor Iveson, which science are you talking about?
The computer model forecasts or the actual boots-on-the-ground collected data? There is a big difference...

Hate to think of what this will do to their economy.

Hurricane Dorian

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Move 'em out - Florida

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They are evacuating. From the Orlando Sentinal:

Brevard County to begin mandatory evacuations this weekend
Brevard County will begin mandatory evacuations this weekend as officials and residents brace for Hurricane Dorian’s arrival.

Homes in the county’s barrier islands and other flood-prone areas and residents living in manufactured or mobile homes are told to leave the area 8 a.m. Sunday, Sheriff Wayne Ivey said in a video posted to Facebook.

“While I know that no one likes to leave their home, I really believe in my heart that given the current forecast, this is the best course of action to take to keep everyone absolutely safe,” Sheriff Wayne Ivey said.

Be safe. You can always rebuild.

Yikes - hurricane Dorian

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How fast things can change. Tropical storm Dorian was forecast to be a weak storm. Now, hurricane Dorian is Cat 5 - the maximum. From AccuWeather:

Hurricane Dorian closes in on Bahamas with 200-mph wind gusts
Hurricane Dorian continued tracking toward the Bahamas early Sunday, as it strengthened to a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. President Trump warns it could be among 'strongest' to hit in decades.

As of early Sunday morning, Dorian was located about 35 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. The powerful Category 5 hurricane had top sustained winds of 160 mph.

"Conditions across Abaco Island, as well as Grand Bahama Island are expected to rapidly deteriorate Sunday as Dorian continues its track west," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

Since 1851 the Treasure Cay area in the Abacos Bahamas has experienced three major hurricanes, all of which were Category 3 hurricanes, according to the NWS Charleston. Dorian, currently a Category 5, would be the strongest by far to affect the area. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is the only Category 5 hurricane to pass through the Bahamas.

And the cone of doom:

20190901-cone.jpg

Looks like a fun labor day for the East coast. Prayers going out...

Red sky in the morning...

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...Sailor take warning:

20190829-red.jpg

Cliff Mass has more:

Unstable Sky
When I looked out this morning around 6:15 AM at the beautiful sunrise, I could see it. The potential for showers and thunderstorms was there.

Below are images from the Space Needle Pano cam at 6:10 and 6:20 AM. Not only was the sunset beautiful, but the colors changed radically in ten minutes from red to yellow.

But look at the clouds. There is a deck of mid-level clouds that are broken into lots of puffy, individual elements. This is sign of instability--the tendency to convect--in the middle atmosphere. And often precedes convection (e.g., thunderstorms) in our area.

Forecast is for cooler weather for the next week or so.

And of course - Dorian

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President Trump has already approved an Emergency Declaration. From OAN News:

White House Approves Puerto Rico Emergency Declaration Ahead Of Tropical Storm Dorian
President Trump has signed off on an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian making landfall in the island territory. The White House released a statement Tuesday evening, saying the president has approved federal assistance to help with emergency response efforts.

From President Trump's twitter feed:

Back to the OAN News report:

This comes as the tropical storm is forecast to turn into a Category One hurricane as it makes its way toward the Caribbean. Heavy rain could reportedly cause life-threatening floods in its path. The storm is expected to make landfall in Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon.

Forecasters warned Dorian is expected to be very close to the strength of a hurricane as it approaches Florida later this week.

The good news is that it will only be a Cat 1 storm, unlike previous hurricanes. The Emergency Declaration is already in place unlike Katrina which made landfall as a Cat 3 hurricane in 2005. New Orleans mayor Nagin "froze" and did not ask President Bush for the Emergency Declaration until three days after landfall.

The good news is that this changed the way we handle disasters like this and now, the president does not have to be asked before troops and supplies can be sent in from out of state.  This was a Constitutional states rights issue - do not want the Federal government to send troops into a state on the pretext of aid.

FEMA is a lot better too - great training for civilians.

This is turning out to be a very weak hurricane season - cooling climate does that.

Tropical storm Dorian

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Over Puerto Rico and gathering strength. From The Weather Channel:

Dorian Striking Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands; Hurricane Threat Grows For Southeast U.S.
Tropical Storm Dorian is now striking the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the first storm there since 2017's Hurricane Maria, and is an increasing danger to the Southeast U.S., including Florida, over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Dorian's center is now moving over St. Croix, in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Heavy rain is now lashing St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas and the British Virgin Islands. Outer rainbands are already pushing into Puerto Rico, according to NWS Doppler radar from San Juan.

And from the Orlando, Florida FOX affiliate:

NHC: Tropical Storm Dorian could reach Florida as a Cat 3 hurricane this weekend
Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the U.S. Virgin Islands and is expected to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on the east coast of Florida on Labor Day, according to the National Hurricane Center. 

And, from the National Hurricane Center - the cone:

20190828-cone.jpg

About that global warming

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No US warming since 2005. From Real Clear Energy:

Climate Alarmists Foiled: No U.S. Warming Since 2005
When American climate alarmists claim to have witnessed the effects of global warming, they must be referring to a time beyond 14 years ago. That is because there has been no warming in the United States since at least 2005, according to updated data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In January 2005, NOAA began recording temperatures at its newly built U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). USCRN includes 114 pristinely maintained temperature stations spaced relatively uniformly across the lower 48 states. NOAA selected locations that were far away from urban and land-development impacts that might artificially taint temperature readings.

Prior to the USCRN going online, alarmists and skeptics sparred over the accuracy of reported temperature data. With most preexisting temperature stations located in or near urban settings that are subject to false temperature signals and create their own microclimates that change over time, government officials performed many often-controversial adjustments to the raw temperature data. Skeptics of an asserted climate crisis pointed out that most of the reported warming in the United States was non-existent in the raw temperature data, but was added to the record by government officials. 

The USCRN has eliminated the need to rely on, and adjust the data from, outdated temperature stations. Strikingly, as shown in the graph below, USCRN temperature stations show no warming since 2005 when the network went online. If anything, U.S. temperatures are now slightly cooler than they were 14 years ago.

Much more at the site - links to data, etc... The people running around with their hair on fire are reacting to the output from computer models that have been tweaked to give a specific output. If you look at the actual recorded data, we are just fine. Getting a bit colder in fact; which lines up with the sun's output being abnormally low. Maybe they will bring back the River Thames frost fairs - you know, when London's River Thames froze over in winter. They would put shacks up and sell food, have puppet shows, ice skate. Lots of fun.

I have said before and will say again. I will believe that we have a climate emergency when the people who are telling us that we have a climate emergency start acting like we have a climate emergency. Witness Obama's new $14 million dollar beach house.

The hockey stick that will not die

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Climate alarmist Michael Mann just lost another court case - from Powerline:

MICHAEL MANN REFUSES TO PRODUCE DATA, LOSES CASE
Some years ago, Dr. Tim Ball wrote that climate scientist Michael Mann “belongs in the state pen, not Penn State.” At issue was Mann’s famous “hockey stick” graph that purported to show a sudden and unprecedented 20th century warming trend. The hockey stick featured prominently in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (2001), but has since been shown to be wrong. The question, in my view, is whether it was an innocent mistake or deliberate fraud on Mann’s part. (Mann, I believe, continues to assert the accuracy of his debunked graph.) Mann sued Ball for libel in 2011. Principia Scientific now reports that the court in British Columbia has dismissed Mann’s lawsuit with prejudice, and assessed costs against him.

What happened was that Dr. Ball asserted a truth defense. He argued that the hockey stick was a deliberate fraud, something that could be proved if one had access to the data and calculations, in particular the R2 regression analysis, underlying it. Mann refused to produce these documents. He was ordered to produce them by the court and given a deadline. He still refused to produce them, so the court dismissed his case.

The rules of discovery provide that a litigant must make available to opposing parties documents that reasonably bear on the issues in the case. Here, it is absurd for Mann to sue Ball for libel, and then refuse to produce the documents that would have helped to show whether Ball’s statement about him–he belongs in the state pen–was true or false. The logical inference is that the R2 regression analysis and other materials, if produced, would have supported Ball’s claim that the hockey stick was a deliberate fraud on Mann’s part.

Mann says that his lawyers are considering an appeal. He can appeal to his heart’s content, but there is not a court in North America that will allow a libel case to proceed where the plaintiff refuses to produce the documents that may show whether the statements made about him were true or false.

Junk science at its finest. This graph is the poster child for stunningly bad science:

20190825-mann.jpg

A mish-mash assemblage of cherry picked data. No representation of the Medieval Warm Period or the Dalton Minimum cold period or the Maunder Minimum cold period or the Spörer Minimum cold period. No hint that we are entering the Modern (Eddy) Minimum - our sun is incredibly quiet.

Obama's new beach house

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Dug up some stories about our previous president. Three clickable headlines from 2015:

And the actual document (PDF) with the numbers: 

Findings from Select Federal Reports: THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGING CLIMATE
May 2015

I bring this up because they just bought a $14+ million oceanfront mansion in a very tony part of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Is he some kind of later-day King Canute and trying to stop the waves?

Again, I will believe that this is an emergency when the people who are telling me that this is an emergency start acting like this is an emergency.

Seeking shelter in a storm

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Stupid people - from Associated Press:

Lightning strike at Tour Championship causes 6 injuries
Six people were injured Saturday when lightning struck a 60-foot pine at the Tour Championship where they were taking cover from rain and showered them with debris, Atlanta police said.

The third round of the season-ending PGA Tour event had been suspended for about 30 minutes because of storms in the area, and fans were instructed to seek shelter. The strike hit the top of the tree just off the 16th tee and shattered the bark all the way to the bottom.

Even if it is just rain and no threat of lightning, do not shelter under a tall tree. Lightning strikes are brutal and can leave long lasting neurological irregularities. Fortunately, no one was killed but still...

I dearly love lightning and electricity in general but I have also taken the time to educate myself on proper safety proceedures and only rarely get "bit".

Consequences of cooling climate

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We are seeing a very quiet hurricane season this year - mostly do to cooling temperatures. From Accuweather:

Tropical Storm Dorian forms east of Lesser Antilles; Will another soon follow near Florida?
As the Atlantic hurricane season enters a "tropical red zone," a new tropical storm has formed east of the Lesser Antilles, and another depression or tropical storm may soon follow near Florida.

On Saturday afternoon, the system east of the Lesser Antilles was named Tropical Storm Dorian by the National Hurricane Center.

The area being monitored near Florida has been dubbed Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center. The center of the disturbance was located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream as of Saturday night.

And, of course, here is the cone:

20190824-cone.jpg

Hurricanes run on temperature differential and the closer the air temp is to the water temp, the less energy.

Cooler air? More tropical storms stay tropical storms and fail to develop into hurricanes.

About that global warming cooling

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The earth is cooling down - from Global News Canada:

Snow falling on B.C.’s interior highways with more expected
Snow is falling on some of B.C.’s interior highways Wednesday morning and more is expected to fall Wednesday and into Thursday.

Tell me again what the emergency is...

Atmospheric CO2

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Great video - the speaker is from Australia so the presentation is addressing some Aussie legislation but his point is spot on and his numbers are flawless.

Tip of the hat to Peter at Bayou Renaissance Man for the link.

Well summer was nice while it lasted

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From Seattle weather guru Cliff Mass:

The First Autumn Storm Makes Landfall on Wednesday
It is very typical for first "autumn-like" storm to reach our region during the third week of August....and this year will not be an exception. In fact, we have two systems that will be making landfall this week, with the first one being the strongest.

You can see the impact of this "first autumn storm" in the precipitation climatology Seattle. Below is the daily climatological probability of enjoying at least .01 inches at Sea-Tac. At the end of August the probability jumps to roughly 25%!

Much more at the site. We usually have a wonderful Indian Summer but these first storms are the beginning of Fall and Winter to be sure. That certainly jives with the local forecast:

20190818-weather.JPG

Quite the record hail in Colorado

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Our climate is cooling - one datum from the Colorado Climate Center with a followup from Brian Bledsoe, the Chief Meteorologist/Climatologist for 11 News in Colorado Springs:

More people die from cold than from heat.

From Cliff Mass:

Unusual Low Pressure over the Eastern Pacific Brings Rain Back
The upper level (500 hPa) pattern is quite anomalous today, as illustrated by the height at 8 PM tonight. A closed low is due Oregon, with another farther out in the Pacific. Further to the north there is high pressure--producing an unusual, but highly stable "omega? pattern.

Much more at the site including the usual charts with the circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back.

Classical reference there...

Aurora Borealis tonight?

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From NASA's excellent Space Weather website:

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: As predicted, today Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. NOAA forecasters say there is a 55% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on Aug. 5th and 6th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially in the southern hemisphere where winter darkness favors visibility.

The Planetary K-Index is certainly showing this - a solid five.

20190804-kindex.jpg

If this event lasts through tonight, we have a great chance of seeing some aurora if the skies cooperate. If it hits six, then definitely.

Greenland's melting ice

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From Matt Ridley's blog - April, 2010 - a short post so here it is in its entirety:

GREENLAND'S MELTING ICE?
Exaggerations run rife while the reality is strangely absent from recent reporting on melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Breathless reporting last week of a new estimate of Greenland's melting ice.

It's higher than it was before:

"The changes on the Greenland ice sheet are happening fast, and we are definitely losing more ice mass than we had anticipated," says study co-author Isabella Velicogna of the University of California-Irvine.

Could be scary? USA Today has its cake and eats it:

"If the entire Greenland ice sheet melted, which is not predicted, scientists estimate that global sea levels would rise about 20 feet, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center."

Is there a single journalist out there who bothered to ask the obvious question: what percentage of its ice mass is Greenland losing each year, so how long have we got before the 20 feet engulf us all?

Not that I could see. So I looked it up.

The new study says Greenland lost 385 cubic miles between 2002 and 2009. Sounds a lot.

Greenland has 700,000 cubic miles of ice. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet)

So it's losing 1% per century, 0.01% per year. Funny that number never appeared in the news reports.

For Pete's sake, journalists, do your job.

Emphasis mine. Minuscule. Less than a rounding error. Fake News.

I love the line: "I will believe there is a climate crisis when the people who are telling me there is a climate crisis start acting like there is a climate crisis"

Talking about the weather

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Great post from Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass:

EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?
I have written at least a dozen blogs, a peer-reviewed paper, and given tens of conference talks on the unfortunate state of numerical weather prediction in the National Weather Service (which is part of NOAA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration).

The bottom line: U.S. global weather prediction is in third place in the world. The plot below shows a comparison of the skill of the 5-day model forecast for the U.S. (red line) and the European Center (black line) at a mid-tropospheric level (500 hPa). We are not only behind, but we are not catching up.

And the problem (hint: big unaccountable government)

I have explained the origin of the problems in previous blogs. They include:

    1. Too many Federal agencies or government-supported labs trying to do the same thing (NOAA/NWS, Air Force, NASA, Navy, NCAR)
    2. The academic community working on different models than used by NOAA/NWS.
    3. Poor organization within NOAA, with multiple groups having responsibility for weather prediction.
    4. Lack of strategic planning.
    5. Lack of sufficient computer resources.
    6. No priority for excellence.

It has been kind of depressing. The nation with a huge weather research capability and ability to zoom ahead of the pack, stuck in third rate status.

And the solution:

Perhaps best of all, recent weather legislation calls for the development of national EPIC center, that would centralize U.S. efforts to build the best global forecast models in the world. (EPIC stands for Environmental Prediction Innovation Center).

Next week there is going to be a meeting on the nature of the EPIC that will take place in Boulder, Colorado. An absolutely crucial gathering--I will be giving a talk there and are part of the organizing committee.

Will self-interest, disciplinary fiefdoms, and legacy administrative structures give way to rational, more effective approach for developing U.S. weather modeling systems? We may know the answer in one week.

Thank you President Trump for appointing effective people and getting stuff like this done. Doesn't always get the headlines but the "little stuff" like this are what makes things a lot better for all of us.

Happy to be here - Northwest

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Looks like a stretch of some really nice PNW weather and looks like major suckage for the Northeast. From Cliff Mass:

Humidity Storm Hits the Northeast While the Northwest Has the Best Weather in the Nation
For those of you living in the Northwest, this is weather payoff time. Warm, but not too warm. Generally dry, but with a few showers next week to keep things moist enough to keep down the fires.

But the situation back east is different: in several places the humidity will be debilitating, with effective temperatures getting well above 100F.

As I talked about this week, the dew point temperature is a good measure of moisture in the atmosphere, and when summer dew points get into the mid-60s, it starts feeling "sticky" and unpleasant. Dew points in the 70s start getting really irritating and upper 70s, really bad. The National Weather Service dew point analysis at 8 AM EDT today show the national moisture divide. The eastern half of the nation is steamy, with dew points approaching 80F that extends into the New York area. In contrast, low dew points over the West.

More at the site. Yikes - not only high temps but high humidity as well. This is not unusual - used to live in Boston and we would get heat like this every 3-5 years. Glad I live here.

Great article from Reason:

The New York Times Says Heat Waves Are Getting Worse. The National Climate Assessment Disagrees.
Americans east of the Rockies are sweltering as daytime temperatures soar toward 100 degrees or more. It is now customary for journalists covering big weather events to speculate on how man-made climate change may be affecting them, and the current heat wave is no exception. Take this headline in The New York Times: "Heat Waves in the Age of Climate Change: Longer, More Frequent and More Dangerous."

As evidence, the Times cites the U.S. Global Change Research Program, reporting that "since the 1960s the average number of heat waves—defined as two or more consecutive days where daily lows exceeded historical July and August temperatures—in 50 major American cities has tripled." That is indeed what the numbers show. But it seems odd to highlight the trend in daily low temperatures rather than daily high temperatures.

As it happens, chapter six of 2017's Fourth National Climate Assessment reports that heat waves measured as high daily temperatures are becoming less common in the contiguous U.S., not more frequent.

Again, pushing the narrative and not the facts.

Wonderful fisking of a paper linking wildfires with global warming. From A Chemist In Langley:

Why Confounding Variables Matter – On that UVic study attributing the 2017 Extreme Fire Season to Climate Change
One of the downsides of my investigation of evidence-based environmental decision-making being a hobby, is my real life often gets in the way. This means I am not always able to comment on every interesting paper when it comes out. One such example is the paper that came out in January from the University of Victoria titled Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season. The paper has been a topic of intense conversation but very little critique. It is repeatedly cited by activists who have not read it, but feel the conclusions:

that the event’s high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2–4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7–11.

help their political narrative. I keep expecting to read a serious challenge of its results because it has a really obvious flaw that essentially eliminates its usefulness in quantifying anything; but I haven’t seen one to date. I am surprised because once you see how it treats confounding variables it is impossible to take its quantification seriously. In the rest of this blog post I will provide an explanation for this statement.

Much more at the site. ACIL proceeds to name four variables that are key actors in wildfire formation and were ignored in the paper. It is almost like they were trying to cherry-pick their data to fit some narrative. Or something.

Hurricane Barry

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Hitting the Gulf Coast pretty hard - from Breitbart:

Hurricane Barry’s rain and floods hammer Gulf environment
Hurricane Barry could affect the environment of the Gulf coast and Lower Mississippi Valley in numerous ways, from accelerating runoff of farmland nutrients to toppling trees and damaging wildlife habitat and fisheries, scientists say.

But the extent of the damage — and whether it will be at least partially offset by benefits such as disruption of the notorious Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” — is hard to predict, they say. That’s because the region faces a rare one-two-three punch : the storm’s anticipated tidal surge and torrential downpour, combined with record-high water levels in the Mississippi River.

“We don’t know how the system is going to respond to all this because it’s so unusual,” said Melissa Baustian, a coastal ecologist with the Water Institute of the Gulf in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

One of the wettest-ever springs in the nation’s heartland engorged the Mississippi, sending massive volumes of water southward toward the Gulf. Levees and dams were breached and millions of acres of cropland flooded in the Midwest. Barry threatens to hurl a storm surge of up to 3 feet (1 meter) onto coastal regions. And forecasters said the hurricane could stall inland and dump up to 2 feet (61 centimeters) of rain.

Rainfall washes manure and chemical fertilizers from Midwestern corn and soybean fields into streams, smaller rivers and eventually the Mississippi. The nutrients — especially nitrogen — overfeed aquatic plants that eventually die and decompose, leaving a large section of the Gulf with little or no oxygen each summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that this year’s dead zone will be roughly the size of Massachusetts.

This could be a nasty storm as the cone has it following the Mississippi River upstream.

More climate news

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An interesting set of research is being published. From Zero Hedge:

Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find "Man-made Climate Change Doesn't Exist In Practice"
A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which 'climate change' is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found "practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change" after a series of studies. 

“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers.

This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers' theory: "New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth's climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an 'umbrella effect'," the just published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily. The findings are hugely significant given this 'umbrella effect' — an entirely natural occurrence  could be the prime driver of climate warming, and not man-made factors

The scientists involved in the study are most concerned with the fact that current climate models driving the political side of debate, most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) climate sensitivity scale, fail to incorporate this crucial and potentially central variable of increased cloud cover. 

"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has discussed the impact of cloud cover on climate in their evaluations, but this phenomenon has never been considered in climate predictions due to the insufficient physical understanding of it," comments Professor Hyodo in Science Daily. "This study provides an opportunity to rethink the impact of clouds on climate. When galactic cosmic rays increase, so do low clouds, and when cosmic rays decrease clouds do as well, so climate warming may be caused by an opposite-umbrella effect."

In their related paper, aptly titled, “No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic [man-made] climate change”, the Finnish scientists find that low cloud cover "practically" controls global temperatures but that “only a small part” of the increased carbon dioxide concentration is anthropogenic, or caused by human activity. 

I can see that. Geologic record has the CO2 concentration changing about 800 years after the global temperature changes. CO2 is a lagging indicator and not a driver. Besides, Earth's CO2 used to be 9,000PPM instead of today's 460PPM and we are doing just fine.

A Climate Realist - Barnaby Joyce

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From Thomas Lifson writing at American Thinker:

Former Aussie deputy PM becomes backbencher, suddenly tells the truth about global warming
You've probably never heard of Barnaby Joyce, but he has twice been deputy prime minister of Australia, from February 2016 to October 2017 and from December 2017 to February 2018. During both terms, he served as leader of Oz's National Party, which frequently allies with the country's biggest conservative party, called the "Liberal Party." The National Party was formerly known as "The Country Party" and represents farmers, grazers, and other rural residents.

Like the United States, Australia is subject to agitation for CO2 emissions reduction in the name of "saving the planet." As deputy P.M. serving in coalition under the leadership of warmist true believer Malcolm Turnbull, Joyce could not speak his mind for fear of those interests.

But the pendulum swings and now the Australian government is conservative.
Here is Mr. Jones' epic rant on Facebook:

“The very idea that we can stop climate change is barking mad. Climate change is inevitable, as geology has always shown.” These are the views of New Zealand lecturer of geology, David Shelley. A person vastly more competent than me and the flotilla of others telling the kids the world is going to end from global warming.

The central theme of David Shelley’s analysis is that sea levels are rising and have been for thousands of years and will fall during the next ice age which is expected about now, give or take a thousand years.
When the ice age does arrive temperatures will drop around ten degrees. A warmer planet will be a disconsolate chronicle and many, maybe most, will die from starvation as is the usual experience of man or beast in previous ice ages.

The weather is going to brutally win the population problem and the parliament of Australia has no power against it. One may suggest that warmer weather is the better problem of the two.

One of the few graces of being on the backbench is you can be honest with what your views really are. I believe this is one of the greatest policy phantoms, the misguided and quite ludicrous proposition that Australia can have any affect on the climate. If we could we should be the first to make it rain and, more importantly, stop the recurrence of an ice age anytime in the coming millennium.

Politics takes politics to the absurd. We have to absolutely affirm that our domestic settings can deal with a proposition which is stated quite clearly by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that: “In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

You don’t get the feeling when you listen to the political propaganda or the supporting lobbyists that there is any doubt about their capacity to “fix the climate problem” I do get the feeling that you will be tried for heresy if you dare question the zeitgeist so you basically have to lie about your honest assessment of what the hell we are doing to our economy, standard of living, our basic rights and the real future of our children.

Today, more than in the past, the political debate is set within a predetermined paradigm. Participants can not ague outside these preset boundaries. Maybe it is over cynical but I believe the promotion of the primacy of the state over the individual is very well served by the apparent necessity of climate policy.

Private property rights are removed, by the implementation of vegetation laws, because of “climate action”. The state will limit your access to electricity because of “climate action”. You will drive an electric car because of “climate action”. You will divest the nation of its largest export because of “climate action”. Rather than state there is no prospect whatsoever that any action of ours, and most likely of anyone else, will have any affect whatsoever on the trajectory climate is on.

We have instead the congenial narrative that we are all trying to make the world get cooler, but one path or the other path is the better alternative of cooling policies . We will do this by shutting down all our power stations, replacing them with windmills and rejiggering our nation away from our largest exports of mining and agricultural resources to carbon neutral tourism and the knowledge economy. Australia will be the catalyst to a global epiphany and the totalitarian Chinese regime will follow our lead because of our righteousness followed by India and the United States.

No, I don’t think that will happen. I hate to say it but I doubt the majority of people on the planet, give a toss about the Paris Agreement. I would be amazed if one percent of the planet could competently explain it.

I will make one prediction; after this is published it will be promptly followed by the remnants of the traditional media in furious pursuit of my heresy. Questions will be asked by the fourth estate and high octane derision will issue forth from the climate change actionistas.

No doubt I will be accused of not knowing what I am talking about, and when it comes to predicting the weather more than a fortnight or so out, that is true. But of those who ask the questions, will any of them truly understand what on earth are they are talking about?

A classic example of speaking truth to power. All the measured data point to a cooling period. All the computer models point to warming. Guess what one I believe?

Old Weather

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Very cool project - from their ABOUT page:

The Project
Old Weather volunteers explore, mark, and transcribe historic ship's logs from the 19th and early 20th centuries. We need your help because this task is impossible for computers, due to diverse and idiosyncratic handwriting that only human beings can read and understand effectively.

By participating in Old Weather you'll be helping advance research in multiple fields. Data about past weather and sea-ice conditions are vital for climate scientists, while historians value knowing about the course of a voyage and the events that transpired. Since many of these logs haven't been examined since they were originally filled in by a mariner long ago you might even discover something surprising.

About the Science
Millions of weather, ocean, and sea-ice observations recorded by mariners and scientists over the past 150 years are being recovered by Old Weather. These data are made freely available in digital formats suitable for climate model assimilation, retrospective analysis (reanalysis), and other kinds of research. The performance of data-assimilating modeling and extended reanalysis systems is greatly improved, the uncertainty of results (especially in sparsely observed regions like the Arctic) is reduced, and new long-period calibration and validation data sets are being created. As the historical data resource is extended farther back in time it will be possible to study a wider range of weather and climate phenomena and to better understand their impact on the Arctic and global environment, now and in the future.

Actually, really surprised that this wasn't started 30 years ago. We have lots of historical record spanning the globe. Time to compare it to the current climate and see how the current crop of computer models does.

Be sure to check out: Old Weather  There is also an Old Weather Blog and Forum

A big weather system is hitting Louisiana. A couple of clickable headlines:

From The Weather Channel:

Tropical Storm Barry Likely to Form in Gulf of Mexico, May Become a Hurricane; Flooding, Surge, Wind Threats Ahead

    • A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
    • It will eventually strengthen into Tropical Storm Barry, and become a hurricane before landfall this weekend.
    • Tropical storm, hurricane and storm-surge watches could be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
    • The track of future Barry remain a bit uncertain.
    • A major threat of rainfall flooding is in play over the northern Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley.
    • Storm surge flooding is also likely, particularly to the east of future Barry's track.

And the cone - from the National Hurricane Center:

20190710-cone.jpg

Time to batten down the hatches. It will be interesting to see if all the post-Katrina money was well spent.

Staring down the barrel - JAWS

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Time to cue the soundtrack - it is going to be a wet week - from Cliff Mass:

JAWS is Making Landfall on the Northwest Coast
Yes, JAWS.

A July Abnormally Wet System (JAWS) is approaching the Northwest coast as I write this blog. The view from space is scary and unusual for this time of the year. It looks like a November satellite image.

20190709-jaws01.jpg

The latest high-resolution UW WRF model forecast shows the rain coming into Puget Sound this evening--earlier on the coast and to the southwest.

During the next few days, western Washington and Oregon should be wetted down, with potentially several inches in the high elevations of the Olympics, north Cascades, and mountains of southern BC (see below...total accumulation through 5 PM Friday). The heaviest rain will be overnight tonight, but there will be plenty of showers tomorrow.

Glad to see a brief respite for Saturday - two events I am planning to attend. Sunday will start up with JAWS II and JAWS III is tentatively penciled in for July 19 and 22. It will have even bigger (or wetter) teeth.

Solid overcast and starting to spit some rain.

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