Recently in Climate Category

Look up tonight

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Chance of aurora borealis - from Cliff Mass:

Potential Aurora Tonight!
One of the most extraordinary natural sights to behold is the aurora borealis and tonight and early Sunday morning, you might have a chance to see one in our region.

On Wednesday, there was a massive solar flare, followed by a coronal mass ejection (CME), on the sun. It takes a few days for electrons and protons associated with the CME to reach the earth's atmosphere, and in fact, it has JUST ARRIVED. This is evident from the latest planetary K index (a measure of the disturbance of Earth's magnetic field) form the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Forecast is for partly cloudy so we will see...

All that snow - river levels rising

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A very graphic look at two local rivers - nothing as bad as what is happening now in Nebraska but still:



Larger than normal amounts of snow followed by warmer than normal weather.
No worries, just something to keep an eye on.

As it thaws

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Lots of snow has a definite downside - from Reuters:

Historic floods hit Nebraska after 'bomb cyclone' storm
Large parts of Nebraska and the U.S. Central Plains were underwater on Saturday after a late-winter “bomb cyclone” storm triggered historic flooding along the Missouri and Platte rivers, causing two deaths, tearing apart homes and swallowing roadways.

The National Weather Service predicted dangerous flooding would continue through the weekend in Nebraska and in south and west central Iowa, particularly along the Missouri River.

Some records being set - Mike Wight is a spokesman for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency:

“We’re looking at 4, 5, 6, 7 feet above the highest it’s ever been,” Wight said.

And it is another day with zero sunspots. Explain that anthropogenic global warming theory again please...

Heat wave

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Got up to 56°F yesterday - from Cliff Mass:

March Heat Wave
Can you imagine temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s here around Puget Sound?

You won't have to --such temperatures will be widespread around western Washington on Monday and Tuesday.

The last day to get above 60 was January 11th (61 was the max). We will smash that number on Sunday.

Taking the van up to the farm today - should be a lot less snow on the ground.

The troubles are just starting - from The Weather Channel:

Hundreds Evacuated in Historic Flooding in Nebraska, Iowa as Swollen Waterways Threaten Dams, Levees
Flooding from heavy rain and a melting snowpack is threatening towns across the Midwest, swelling waterways to historic levels in places, compromising flood protections and triggering evacuations for hundreds of residents in Nebraska and Iowa.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Thursday signed an emergency disaster proclamation that allows state resources to be used in response to flooding in the state. Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts had issued an Emergency Declaration on Tuesday.

Just before 11 a.m. Thursday, the residents of Hornick in western Iowa were ordered to evacuate immediately because of a levee breach on the West Fork of the Little Sioux River.

"They gave us about 10 minutes, so you just grab the things you need the most," Catie Newman told the Des Moines Register.

The increase of cold weather and snowfall has a lot of repercussions beyond just the immediate weather.

And we are back to zero - sunspots

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From Spaceweather:


From Colorado Spring's The Gazzette:

More than 1,000 drivers stranded in Colorado Springs area, Gov. Polis declares state of emergency as bomb cyclone paralyzes Front Range
Snow driven by winds approaching 100 mph shut down schools, highways, air travel and businesses in the Pikes Peak region Wednesday and left more than 1,000 stranded in their cars awaiting rescue.

The rapidly intensifying storm — known as a bomb cyclone — caused whiteout conditions for drivers caught in its fury and prompted the governor to call out the National Guard and El Paso County to declare an emergency.

Officials pleaded with people to stay home and off the roads.

"The more people on the road, the higher likelihood of crashes happening today," the Colorado State Patrol warned on Twitter. "We are giving you complete permission, 100 percent guaranteed, no questions asked to STAY HOME TODAY."

This winter is one for the history books and there is every indication that this is the start of a trend that may last decades.

The winter that never ended

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The weather keeps getting better and better - from The Weather Channel:

Winter Storm Ulmer 'Bombs' Out, Becomes 'Bomb Cyclone'
A massive Plains storm became a bomb cyclone today, has already set new preliminary all-time low pressure records in a few locations, and will produce blizzard conditions and damaging winds into Thursday.

Meteorologists refer to a strengthening low as "bombing out" or undergoing bombogenesis if its minimum surface pressure drops by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less.

In Winter Storm Ulmer's case, its central pressure dropped from 994 millibars around 8 p.m. MDT Tuesday night, estimated by NOAA Weather Prediction Center meteorologist David Roth, to 970 millibars at 9 a.m. MDT Wednesday, meeting bombogenesis criteria in just over half the time.

This bomb cyclone has already tied or set three preliminary, unofficial all-time low pressure records in three locations.

Pueblo, Colorado, already set their preliminary, unofficial all-time record low pressure early Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Colorado state climatologist Russ Schumacher tweeted it was the lowest pressure on record there since at least 1950.

Roth, who tracks U.S. pressure records, also noted low pressure records were tied in Alamosa, Colorado, and smashed in Clayton, New Mexico.

Much more at the site. Wonder where Al Gore is now.

Climate change denier deniers - Apple

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Apple goes full SJW on an iPhone app that is skeptical about the current orthodoxy of man made global warming.
From The Daily Signal:

Geologist Accuses Apple of Political Bias in Removing App Countering Climate Alarmism
Political figures who support the so-called Green New Deal and other proposals to restrict carbon dioxide emissions are up against some “inconvenient facts” that Americans may access immediately through a smartphone application, a geologist and author says.

But there’s one big problem.

The app, called Inconvenient Facts, is available only to Android users through the Google Play Store. Since March 4, users of Apple’s iPhone no longer can access the app through the tech giant’s App Store.

Why is that?

Gregory Wrightstone, a geologist with more than three decades of experience, told The Daily Signal in an interview that he has his own opinion about what may have transpired inside Apple.

Wrightstone is the author of the book “Inconvenient Facts: The Science That Al Gore Doesn’t Want You to Know,” which served as the basis for the information available from the app.

He notes that former Vice President Al Gore, a leading proponent of the view that mankind’s activities propel dangerous climate change, is a board member of Apple.

Of course - the political narrative must be preserved and amplified at all costs. Can't have the proles seeing any cracks in the wall.

Downloading the app and will check it out. My library doesn't have it yet but I pre-reserved a copy (big waiting list). It is available at Amazon and is #297 in the Best Sellers list and #4 in Science and Mathematics.

This damned winter cold

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A two-fer - first from our own Cliff Mass:

Record-Breaking Cold in Eastern Washington
The cold that has been experienced in eastern WA since early February has been totally amazing. And unlike western WA they have had little relief the past week.

You will not believe the minimum temperatures this morning. Yakima got down to 7°F, with a number of locations around Ellensburg dropped to 2-3F.

Such temperatures are unusual this late in the season, as shown below at several sites in northeast Oregon and southeast WA.  Some of the daily low temperature records were smashed by 5-8F.  That is significant.

And it is not just the Pacific Northwest, from Texas' Laredo Morning Times:

Montana just endured one of the nation's most exceptional cold spells on record
There's a kind of cold that's legitimately dangerous. It can causes frostbite in minutes to unexposed skin. In parts of the Lower 48 states, such extreme cold is not uncommon, for a few days to at most a week.

But over the entire month of February and even into March, such exceptional, life-threatening cold never departed parts of Montana. Temperatures averaging 20 to 30 degrees below normal gripped huge areas in the state, as well as parts of the Dakotas.

These places are normally cold but this chill was unlike anything seen in the contiguous United States in decades, for both its intensity and its duration.

The February temperature departures from normal were stunning. Several major climate locations averaged 27 to 28 degrees below normal, which were the most extreme in the Lower 48 for a full month since January 1969, according to Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

Great Falls, Montana, was at the heart of it. The mercury didn't rise above zero on 11 days and dropped to zero or below on 24 nights. Only the first day of the month topped freezing. Its average February temperature finished 27.5 degrees below normal.

The punishing and unrelenting cold continued into March. On March 3, the low temperature tanked to a bone-chilling minus-32 in Great Falls. Combined with a high of minus-8, the day finished a whopping 50 degrees below normal. The city concluded its longest stretch on record below freezing on March 7.

Meanwhile, our sun is still very very quiet. One small sunspot cluster (AR2734) but it is fading and heading over the rim of the sun.

Some good news - weather

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From Cliff Mass:

FINALLY! Springtime Warmth Is Coming to the Northwest
Imagine 60 degree temperatures.

Think about the luxuriant warmth. The ability go outside in a short-sleeve shirt and be comfortable.

The chance to build an honest sweat while working in the garden or going for a run.

You won't have to imagine it soon.

Great news - looking at doing a bunch of work in the garden this year. I was at the food coop yesterday and they had the young salad onions for the first time. I look forward to these as a harbinger of spring. Was very happy to see them.

Clueless - from Toronto, Ontario's CTV News:

Obama in Calgary: Climate change chaos making politics more toxic
Former United States president Barack Obama called on global leaders to pay attention to the ways the world is rapidly transforming, urging action on climate change and wealth inequality in speeches in Western Canada on Tuesday.

Obama spoke first to a near-full arena in Calgary, home to several oil and gas company headquarters that are replete with empty office space due to a years-long industry downturn.

Geee - our oil and gas companies are doing really well after we got rid of the progressive President and elected someone who understands capitalism. Canada still has Trudeau at the helm. If they got rid of him, their oil and gas business (all their businesses) would boom.

He got around to global warming climate change

The crowd also clapped when Obama said there is indisputable science that the planet is getting warmer.

"At the current pace that we are on, the scale of tragedy that will consume humanity is something we have not seen in perhaps recorded history if we don't do something about it."

(cough)bullshit(cough) - a bit more:

Rising oceans will displace populations from coastal areas and climate change is also having an effect on the prevalence of insect-borne diseases, he said.

"Moose right now (have) to deal with tick-borne diseases that they didn't have to do 10, 15 years ago," Obama said. "I really like moose. I assume Canadians, you, do too."

So the warmer weather is going to promote the spread of disease? Not so fast.
From Paul Homewood at Not a lot of People Know That:

Paul Reiter’s Damning Assessment Of The IPCC
Prof Paul Reiter, one of the world’s leading experts in malaria, completely debunked this whole scare story in 2005, in a written submission to the Parliamentary Select Committee on Economic Affairs.

It is an old story, but many won’t be aware of it. It is worth revisiting it, since it revealed just how corrupt and thoroughly bankrupt the science surrounding climate change in general, and the IPCC in particular, had become.

This is his submission:

Memorandum by Professor Paul Reiter, Institut Pasteur; Paris
1. This evidence is presented to the Select Committee to provide a perspective on the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in compiling and assessing technical information.

2. I am a specialist in the natural history and biology of mosquitoes, the epidemiology of the diseases they transmit, and strategies for their control. My entire career, more than thirty years, has been devoted to this complex subject. My research has included malaria, filariasis, dengue, yellow fever, St Louis encephalitis and West Nile encephalitis, and has taken me to many countries in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Pacific. I spent 21 years as a Research Scientist for the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). At present, I am a Professor at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, and am responsible for a new unit of Insects and Infectious Disease.

Dr. Reiter establish his (very major) bona fides and writes this (an excerpt):

7. All this occurred in a period—roughly from the mid-15th century to the early 18th century—that climatologists term the "Little Ice Age". Temperatures were highly variable, but generally much lower than in the period since. In winter, the sea was often frozen for many miles offshore, the King could hold parties on the frozen Thames, there are six records of Eskimos landing their kayaks in Scotland, and the Viking settlements in Iceland and Greenland became extinct.

8. Despite this remarkably cold period, perhaps the coldest since the last major Ice Age, malaria was what we would today call a "serious public health problem" in many parts of the British Isles, and was endemic, sometimes common throughout Europe as far north as the Baltic and northern Russia.

The memorandum is very long but it explains in detail that temperature has little or nothing to do with disease spread. The idea that warming temperatures can influence the coverage of a disease or a creature has no basis in fact.

The memorandum can be found in full here: Memorandum by Professor Paul Reiter

Aaaaaand - we have a sunspot

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First sunspot for 33 days - AR2734

Of the 65 days in 2019, 48 have been sunspot-free.

Cold weather coming.

Scott Adams on climate change

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His podcast here: Episode 439 PART2 Scott Adams: Talking to Dr. Shiva About Climate Change

His talking points:

    • Multi-dimensional problems can’t be reduced to a single variable like CO2
    • People don’t understand math and physics, they’re being bamboozled
      • CO2 doubled already, temp should be up 4 degrees, per models
      • The models are NOT supported by the data
      • Actual temperature increase has only been half degree
    • Scientists are keeping quiet about climate change model problems
      • Climate change is BS, the data confirming BS is overwhelming
      • Grant money ONLY exists for those who believe and promote the climate change hoax

All true - yet another case of narrative over actual numbers.

More global warming - Colorado

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From Denver CBS affiliate:

Denver Weather: Coldest Early March Temps In Nearly 60 Years
Arctic cold will grip the eastern half of Colorado today and tonight with some areas seeing the coldest temperatures for early March in nearly 60 years according to the National Weather Service. Many places on the northeast plains fell below zero Sunday morning including Denver International Airport with a low of -6 degrees.

And Spaceweather has us at 33 days without a sunspot - 75% of the whole of 2019

About those species extinctions

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Hint - as much as they want it to be, it is not global warming causing it. From the Ecological Society of America:

Alien versus native species as drivers of recent extinctions
Native plants and animals can rapidly become superabundant and dominate ecosystems, leading to claims that native species are no less likely than alien species to cause environmental damage, including biodiversity loss. We compared how frequently alien and native species have been implicated as drivers of recent extinctions in a comprehensive global database, the 2017 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Alien species were considered to be a contributing cause of 25% of plant extinctions and 33% of animal extinctions, whereas native species were implicated in less than 5% and 3% of plant and animal extinctions, respectively. When listed as a putative driver of recent extinctions, native species were more often associated with other extinction drivers than were alien species. Our results offer additional evidence that the biogeographic origin, and hence evolutionary history, of a species are determining factors of its potential to cause disruptive environmental impacts.

There 'ya go. Knew it all along:


Cold weather in Canada

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From Canada's Global News:

Alberta man’s bowl of noodles freezes, suspends fork mid-air in frigid temperatures
An Alberta man has a whole new take on grabbing food from the frozen aisle.

Jonathan Scholes, who lives in Calgary, decided to demonstrate just how frigid it has been this past month by leaving a bowl of hot, boiling noodles outside.

His video showed noodles and a fork suspended in the air, hardened in place at -30 C on Feb. 10.

According to Scholes, it took about 10 to 15 minutes for the noodles to freeze solid.

This past February was one for the record books for many cities across Canada, including Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Winnipeg.

Here's a screen-grab from the video:

20190304-noodles.jpgThat is cold...

Snowfall in Oregon

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Heavy snowfalls caused some buildings to collapse - from the Roseburg, OR The News-Review:

Weight of snow crushes buildings
Tuffie Curtis Jr. of Sutherlin thought losing power in his temporary home at Techbuilt Inc. was a challenge already, until he heard a sound and discovered snow had brought down half of the building.

Techbuilt is one of the most notable buildings to sustain damage from this week’s storms. Others that were damaged include the cafeteria at Douglas High School, greenhouses at Norm Lehne Garden and Orchards and Kruse Farms, and a barn at Blue Heron Vineyards.

“I was there when part of it collapsed on Monday,” Curtis said. “I wasn’t expecting the building to collapse. It scared me when it made that big of a racket.”

Techbuilt, which builds roof trusses, was registered with the Oregon secretary of state’s office in 1991, almost 27 years ago. Curtis and Sutherlin Emergency Manager Dennis Riggs said the building has been around for at least 30 years.

The collapsed building was home to a company that manufactured roof trusses?

“(The trusses) weren’t built by us,” Curtis said. “They held for 30 years.”

That global warming is nasty stuff...

Talking about the weather

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One whole month - our sun

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From NASA's Spaceweather:

There are 28 days in February. This year, all 28 of them were spotless. The sun had no sunspots for the entire month of Feb. 2019. This is how the solar disk looked every day:


The last time a full calendar month passed without a sunspot was August 2008. At the time, the sun was in the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now a new Solar Minimum is in progress and it is shaping up to be similarly deep. So far this year, the sun has been blank 73% of the time--the same as 2008. 

Solar Minimum is a normal part of the solar cycle. Every ~11 years, sunspot counts drop toward zero. Dark cores that produce solar flares and CMEs vanish from the solar disk, leaving the sun blank for long stretches of time. These minima have been coming and going with regularity since the sunspot cycle was discovered in 1859.

However, not all Solar Minima are alike. The last one in 2008-2009 surprised observers with its depth and side-effects. Sunspot counts dropped to a 100-year low; the sun dimmed by 0.1%; Earth's upper atmosphere collapsed, allowing space junk to accumulate; the pressure of the solar wind flagged while cosmic rays (normally repelled by solar wind) surged to Space Age highs. All these things are happening again.

A brief note - when they say that the sun has dimmed by 0.1%, this is in the visible light part of the spectrum. The ultraviolet and infrared vary by about 3%. This is huge and even the 0.1% change in visible light is larger than all other contributors to the Earth's climate (natural radioactivity, volcanoes, etc...).

The numbers from their website:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 29 days
2019 total: 44 days (73%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

We are in for some cold weather despite what Al Gore and the other rumor mongers are saying.

The weather in Arizona

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Setting records - from the Flagstaff, AZ FOX News affiliate:

Winter storm brings record snowfall to parts of Arizona
A winter storm sweeping across the Southwest has set records in Arizona with heavy snowfall in the high country and significant rain in the desert.

Flagstaff on Thursday had a new single-day snowfall record of 35.9 inches at the airport, breaking the city's previous mark of 31.0 inches set in 1915.

What global warming?

Cold weather

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A lot of it going around these days:

Brundage Mountain sees record snowfall in February, topping four feet in the last week

Record snowfall hammers Central Oregon - Biggest February snowstorm in 118 years

More roof collapses add urgency to Quebec's warning to building owners

How cold is it? Phoenix shatters 122-year-old temperature record

And that Las Vegas dusting?

CNN reported it as a dusting:

The hottest show in Las Vegas right now is the snow
Oh, the things you can do in Sin City. You can gamble, hit up an all-you-can eat buffet or catch a show.

But, this month at least, the best show just might be outside.

A winter storm working its way through the Southwest dusted Las Vegas with half an inch of snow Wednesday, a record for this date, according to the National Weather Service.

The video is showing a lot more than a half inch. Wonder if the media is starting to get worried about the global warming narrative...

WTF - snow

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Went out to unpack the Highlander and it was snowing. Very lightly and it was not sticking but seriously WTF?

Oregon is digging out from their massive snowfall - 18,300 customers without power.

Happy International Polar Bear Day

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From the website:

PBI's International Polar Bear Day is February 27th!
Every year, this global event draws attention to the challenges polar bears face in a warming Arctic—and how we each can help.

Sea ice loss from climate change is the single biggest threat to polar bears. No matter where you live or what you do, you can play a role in turning this around.

Using less energy produced by carbon-based fuels reduces our carbon emissions and can slow and even stop global warming, in turn saving the sea ice that polar bears require to efficiently hunt their seal prey. Without sea ice, polar bears will decline in range and numbers, making them vulnerable to extinction in the future.

But it’s not just about polar bears. The recent U.N. report on climate change outlines devastating impacts for people—from droughts to floods to massive storms—unless we greatly reduce carbon emissions.

Sigh - turns out to be yet another non-scientific advocacy group shilling for the anthropogenic global warming crowd. The arctic ice is at record levels and the polar bears are doing wonderfully - there is zero need to "save them". From two years ago - the Global Warming Policy Foundation:

On the occasion of International Polar Bear Day, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) is calling on the U.S. Administration to re-assess the ‘endangered species’ status of polar bears.

On May 15, 2008, the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service listed the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The listing is based on the assumption that loss of sea ice threatens and will likely continue to threaten polar bear habitat.

In a GWPF video released today, Dr Susan Crockford, a Canadian wildlife expert, documents the latest findings about rising polar bear numbers.

In 2005, the official global polar bear estimate was about 22,500.

Since 2005, however, the estimated global polar bear population has risen by more than 30% to about 30,000 bears, far and away the highest estimate in more than 50 years.

The arctic ice cap is larger than usual this year and is still growing.

We have Fake News. We also have Fake Science. Both are driven by agenda and narrative and have nothing to do with truth or reality. All of the scare-mongering is spewed by people using tweaked computer models for their numbers. These simpletons do not go outside and take a measurement.

Back home - a global warming two-fer

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Fun times in Oregon

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First, from USA Today:

Nearly 200 Amtrak passengers stranded for over 24 hours on Oregon train
An Amtrak train that hit a down tree in Oregon stranded 183 passengers for more than 24 hours.

The train, headed to Los Angeles from Seattle, stopped in Oakridge, Oregon, around 6:20 p.m. Sunday. By Monday night, passengers remained stuck inside the train as heavy snow and road closures in the area reportedly made it difficult to get to them.

Amtrak chief operating officer Scot Naparstek told USA TODAY in a statement that the company worked with local resources to rescue the passengers, who were in route to Eugene, Oregon, on Tuesday morning. The company said no one was injured.

Meanwhile - from Oregon Public Broadcasting:

Record-Breaking Snow In Central Oregon; Eugene Sees 8.5 Inches
Monday was a record-breaking snow day in Central Oregon, as winter storm systems closed schools and businesses on both sides of the Cascades, including the Redmond airport.

The National Weather Service recorded 12.5 inches falling on Bend over a 24-hour period. That broke a century-old record for February, as flurries continued accumulating Monday afternoon. It was the fifth snowiest winter day in Bend since record-keeping started in 1901.

Prineville also got a superlative 24-hour dump, with 9.9 inches breaking the previous record of 1.5 inches for Feb. 25 snowfall, set in 1924. Monday marked the second highest single day accumulation for a single day in February in the town’s history.

Shades of the Donner Party - wonder if they will eat the vegans first.

More global warming

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Clickable headlines:

Where is the supposed warming? Meanwhile - from Spaceweather:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 26 days
2019 total: 40 days (70%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

Sunspots are an indication of solar output - the more spots, the warmer the sun.

Great news on the climate front

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From The Washington Post:

White House to set up panel to counter climate change consensus, officials say
The White House plans to create an ad hoc group of select federal scientists to reassess the government’s analysis of climate science and counter conclusions that the continued burning of fossil fuels is harming the planet, according to three senior administration officials.

The National Security Council initiative would include scientists who question the severity of climate impacts and the extent to which humans contribute to the problem, according to these individuals, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

The group would not be subject to the same level of public disclosure as a formal advisory committee.

The move would represent the Trump administration’s most forceful effort to date to challenge the scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions are helping drive global warming and that the world could face dire consequences unless countries curb their carbon output over the next few decades.

The idea of a new working group, which top administration officials discussed Friday in the White House Situation Room, represents a modified version of an earlier plan to establish a federal advisory panel on climate and national security. That plan — championed by William Happer, an NSC senior director and a physicist who has challenged the idea that carbon dioxide could damage the planet — would have created an independent federal advisory committee.

This is wonderful news. There is no consensus in science - the idea that all these scientists agree is preposterous. The whole concept of science is that theories are subject to dissection and analysis until proven. The core tenet of global warming - the hockey stick chart has been proven to be a fabrication. Its creator - Michael Mann - took one of his major critics to court and was found in contempt for not releasing core data to the court. This data was gathered with public funds (National Science Foundation grant) and was therefore legally in the public domain.

For President Trump to set up an independent ad hoc group of scientists not slaves at the AGW plantation is much needed. More people die from cold than from heat and everything points to a coming cold period.

About yesterday's snow forecast

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A day or so late and headed to the South - from Cliff Mass:

Snow Heads to Oregon, While Western WA Enjoys Cold/Dry/Windy Conditions
It is now snowing from Vancouver, Washington down to southern Oregon, as a low center moves across the southern part of the state. The infrared satellite picture around 7 AM Monday shows the situation, with a plume of moisture moving northeastward across Oregon and then into southeast Washington.


The forecast for Oregon:

Snow will not get near Puget Sound, but central Oregon will be buried.  Here is last nights UW WRF model forecast for total snowfall for the 48 h ending 4 PM Tuesday. In Washington, Walla Walla will get a piece of it, but the real action will be south of Salem.   You will not want to go to Eugene, which will resemble Siberia before this over.

And the good news (for Oregonians):

This snowfall is really a gift from the weather gods for Oregon.  A month ago, there was substantially below-normal snow pack over the Oregon Cascades.  By the time it is over, Oregon will have a normal snowpack.  Very good news for water resources, fish, and the ski industry.

All we get is a Frasier River outflow of high winds and much colder than normal temps. Really looking forward to spring.

Arctic Ice is a lot larger than the last couple of years and it is still growing. From Watts Up With That:

Strong Arctic sea-ice growth this year
February is not over, and Arctic sea-ice extent is already over half a million square kilometers higher than last year at this day.

The growing season has not ended, and 2019 Arctic sea-ice extent is already higher than the previous four years and six out of the last 14 years.

Javier has a chart and some numbers and concludes with this little gem:

Stay tuned for the March results but the “Arctic melting pause” is alive and kicking 12 years later. It started the year Al Gore said Arctic sea-ice was doomed. Talk about timing.

Heh... Meanwhile, our sun has no spots, has been spotless for 24 days - from Spaceweather:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 38 days (69%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)

That is a massive decrease.

The title? Tiny Tim of course: The Icecaps are Melting from 1967.

And here we go again - Snow

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From the National Weather Service:


* WHAT...One to three inches of snow can be expected in moderate to occasionally heavy snow showers through early this afternoon.

* WHERE...Admiralty Inlet Area, including Port Townsend away from the water, Quilcene, areas around the Hood Canal Bridge and the Kitsap Peninsula north of Bremerton, the lowlands of eastern  Jefferson County, the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca lowlands, including Port Angeles, Sequim, and Blyn south of highway 101, and Western Strait of Juan de Fuca lowlands, including Sekiu, Clallam Bay, and Joyce away from the immediate coastline.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM PST this afternoon.

Doing my happy dance - NOT

Our sun is entering a very quiet period. Clickable links to full stories:

And there is also this - Clark County is where Las Vegas is located:

Just wonderful - potential for more snow

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Cliff Mass:

Increasing Chances for Light Snow During the Next Week
When you have gasoline and matches laying about, there is always the chance the two might join forces to produce a fire.

During the next week, two critical ingredients for lowland snow will be in our neighborhood: cold air and occasional weather disturbances coming from a variety of directions. Will they combine to provide some low-level snow?

THAT is the question. And I believe the probability of at least some light snow is becoming more probable, particularly away from the water.

But we are running out of time for a significant lowland snow event. As shown below for Sea Tac Airport, extreme daily snowfall (blue lines) really declines after the first week of March. Average temperatures are slowly warming now and the sun is rapidly gaining strength.

I for one am ready for some nice warm weather. Yesterday was great - sunny at temps in the 45's. Today is cold and cloudy.

Now that is a tailwind - 801MPH

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From The Washington Post:

Flight reaches 801 mph as a furious jet stream packs record-breaking speeds
Tuesday is a nice day across the Northeast. Temperatures near 40 in New York, light winds out of the north at 5 mph to 10 mph, and wall-to-wall sunshine sound like a tranquil day — especially by February standards. But high up in the atmosphere, it’s a different story.

The jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250 millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75 percent of the atmosphere’s mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250 millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country.

And the flight in question:

A Virgin Atlantic flight from Los Angeles to London peaked at a whopping 801 mph Monday evening 35,000 feet over Pennsylvania. “[N]ever ever seen this kind of tailwind in my life as a commercial pilot,” tweeted Peter James, a jet captain.

It appears that’s a record for the Boeing 787-9 twin jet, which in the past has flown at speeds up to 776 mph. The ordinary cruising speed of a Dreamliner is 561 mph, with a maximum propulsion of 587 mph. Any speed gained on top of that is thanks to Mother Nature’s helpful boost.

Very cool.

A bit of history - global warming

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A look back to 1899 from Electroverse:

The “Great Arctic Outbreak of February 1899” as it became known, is one of the most widespread North American cold snaps in recorded history. It was described in a 1988 academic article as “a benchmark with which to compare similar events.”

The amount of magnetic flux that rises up to the Sun’s surface varies within a solar cycle. Near the minimum of the cycle it is rare to see sunspots on the Sun, and the spots that do appear are very small and short-lived. During the maximum there are many sunspots visible.

The strength of each cycle overall also varies.

The “Great Arctic Outbreak of February 1899” occurred during the solar minimum between ‘weak’ solar cycles 13 and 14 — these were the previous comparably weak cycles to the one we’ve just experienced, cycle 24.

More at the site - said it before and will say it again. Our sun is a variable star and it is the prime driver for our climate. The idea that our industrial output has a major influence on our climate is pure fscking hubris. We do not have that much effect - our planet is huge and we do not occupy that much of its surface. About 5% overall (counting the 70% ocean coverage).

About that global warming - a two-fer

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First, from

Las Vegas Gets Snow For Second Time This February
Residents of Las Vegas saw snow on Sunday night for the second time this month and the third time overall this winter.

A trace of snow was officially reported at McCarran International Airport late Sunday, but other parts of the valley saw a dusting to an inch or two of snow.

Vegas never gets snow - it is in a desert. Second - from the Los Angeles Times:

Rare L.A. mega-storm could overwhelm dam and flood dozens of cities, experts say
Scientists call it California’s “other big one,” and they say it could cause three times as much damage as a major earthquake ripping along the San Andreas Fault.

Although it might sound absurd to those who still recall five years of withering drought and mandatory water restrictions, researchers and engineers warn that California may be due for rain of biblical proportions — or what experts call an ARkStorm.

This rare mega-storm — which some say is rendered all the more inevitable due to climate change — would last for weeks and send more than 1.5 million people fleeing as floodwaters inundated cities and formed lakes in the Central Valley and Mojave Desert, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Officials estimate the structural and economic damage from an ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000) would amount to more than $725 billion statewide.

Of course, there is the obligatory reference to "climate change".
Glad to know that the State of California has been very diligent in maintaining its infrastructure. Oh. Wait...

That was then - April  02, 2018 Los Angeles Times:

The Sierra Nevada snowpack will be 64% smaller by the end of this century. We need to prepare now
Although recent storms have dumped heavy snow across the Sierra Nevada, Monday’s snowpack measurement will almost certainly show that it is still well below average. Last week, the Sierra-wide reading put the total snowpack at 15.8 inches of water content, or 43% below normal.

Here’s an even more sobering reality. According to our new research, such spring snow measurements will be considered far above average in the decades to come.

We have just completed detailed projections of the Sierra Nevada’s future climate. Our findings tell the story of a snowpack on life support. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, by the end of this century, the Sierra snowpack in a typical April will be 64% smaller than it was at the end of the 20th century.

And this is now - from February 15, 2019 Yahoo / Associated Press:

Snow too thick to plow keeps skiers from California resorts
Winter weather enveloping California's mountains for a fourth straight day Friday kept skiers from hitting the slopes at the start of the Presidents Day holiday weekend, with snow so deep that plows could not tackle it and cities scrambled to find places to pile it.

Several routes to the ski mecca of Lake Tahoe shut down, including about 70 miles (110 kilometers) of Interstate 80 from Colfax, California, to the Nevada state line.

The 'Climate Scientists' adjust their models to give one very specific kind of forecast all the while Nature deals out some very different numbers. From NASA's SpaceWeather site:

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 16 days
2019 total: 30 days (64%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

Sunspots are a great proxy for solar output. The fewer sunspots, the lower the output. We are entering into a period of very low solar activity. Gonna get really cold for a long long time.

Not out of the woods yet - the weather

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Looks like an extended cold snap - from Cliff Mass:

Will This Be The Coldest February in Sea-Tac History?
We have already broken one major record: Seattle-Tacoma Airport had its snowiest February since record keeping began during the late 1940s: 20.2 inches. Impressive.

But I think there is an excellent chance we will break another record, this time for cold.

Specifically, I think there is a very good change that Sea-Tac Airport will experience the coldest February on record as well....and that is really a very impressive record.

Hold your horses, some of you might exclaim! We are only half way through the month! Who knows what will happen?

Cliff looks at several forecasts and points to this (from NOAA/NWS) due around the end of this month:


Cliff's comments:

The NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, which tries to bring in multiple types of guidance, is going an amazing cold anomaly for the last week of the month (see below). I am getting chilled just looking at it.

Brrrrrr...  And then we have this little bundle of joy to welcome this spring - from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center:

Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The weekly Nino indices remained above average during the month, although decreasing in the Nino-3 and Nino-3.4 regions. However, the Nino-4 region remained elevated, with a value of +0.8°C in early February. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased in the last couple weeks, in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific. Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia. Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Nino conditions.

In plain English - excerpted from InfoGalactic:

Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than average in the Northwest, northern Midwest, and upper Northeast United States, so those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile, significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States, including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and the Southeastern United States (including the Tidewater region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation.

We have already had enough snow to fill our snowpack so agricultural water for this summer is fine. Also, this is being called a mild El Niño so its effects will be minimized - not like the huge one in 2010.

Global Warming Cooling anyone?

Update on the weather - Cliff Mass

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Dr. Mass has a new post up:

From the Freezer Into The Refrigerator
A typical refrigerator is between 35 and 40F and those represent the kind of high temperatures we will "enjoy" the next few days at the surface over most of the western WA lowlands.

And "refrigerator temperatures" have a lot of implications. First, the snow is only going to melt slowly, which should lessen the threat of urban (or other) flooding. Second, the snow levels are low, so if you are up on high hills or in the foothills, snow fall is not over. And third, such temperatures will keep meteorologists awake at night, worrying that the next weather system could drive the snow level to the surface.

For those interested in yesterday's snowfall totals, check at the end of the blog: in central Puget Sound totals ran from roughly 2.5 to 10 inches. As suspected, the models underplayed the totals due to moving out the cool air too quickly. And the mountains have been hit hard, with roughly 4 feet of new snow during the past two days at Snoqualmie Pass (which is now closed by the way).

And there is a new system heading our way Thursday.


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Morning's precip is just a warmup - the main event will happen in the evening - 4-6" accumulation. From Cliff Mass:

A Snow Event in Two Acts
Today's snow event will be in two acts, with the first one already begun. Very light snow is now falling over Northwest Washington (locations such as Bellingham and Orcas Island)--something that is confirmed by the 8:30 AM weather radar.

He analyzes several of the latest forecasts and then closes witt this:

Later today I will talk about the next big snow threats... late Sunday/Monday for SW Washington and Oregon and Tuesday for Washington.  Today is just a "warm up" as cold air remains in place for most of the week.   And no, I won't give a name to the upcoming snow events (but the picture below is a hint)


Be afraid. Be very afraid. Planning on camping out down here - not going anywhere soon.

March 2019

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