Recently in Climate Category

About the coming deluge

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Cliff Mass posted some more info about this weekend's deluge. Here is a photo of what is heading our way:

20210916-water.jpg

Wet in anyone's book...

And a hard rain's gonna fall

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Looks like rain this weekend - from Cliff Mass:

The First Heavy Rain Event of the Season
Everything is going to change on Friday

You know change is in the air when the National Weather Service starts warning of clogged drains and gutters, and localized debris flows.

Consider the European Center model forecast for accumulated rainfall through Sunday at 5 PM (see below).

Mama Mia! 2-4 inches in the mountains and .5-1 inch in the lowlands of Oregon and Washington. Even eastern Washington gets some decent rain.

I'l be back from the farm - should be fun. Snow level at 6,000 feet. Got my raingear out for the season.

this lousy Tee Shirt. John Kerry - master diplomat. From the South China Morning Post:

China ‘tells US envoy John Kerry it will follow its own climate road map’
Beijing has rebuffed American calls to make more public pledges on climate change before a UN climate summit in November, insisting it should follow its own plan rather than bowing to US pressure, according to a person familiar with the two countries’ negotiations.

During talks with Chinese leaders in Tianjin, US climate envoy John Kerry presented a list of proposals for Beijing to accelerate its climate efforts. They included a public commitment to the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) limit of global warming targeted in the 2015 Paris Agreement, a definite time frame for carbon emissions to peak before 2030, and a moratorium on financing overseas coal-fired projects.

But the two sides failed to reach agreement, according to the source, who requested anonymity.

“China already has its own plans and road map for achieving its climate goals,” said the person, adding China would not accept Washington telling it what to do and when.

Good on China for not buying into the progressive hype.  All of the horrible things you hear about global warming are based on the outcomes of computer models and not actual measurement and data collection. These computer models are cherry-picked to provide the numbers that the globalists want.  Got to support the agenda.  Meanwhile, there has been no appreciable warming for the last fifty years and we may well be entering into a cold period.  Our sun has been very very quiet recently.

If I had to meet with Kerry, I would tell him to stuff it and I would walk out of the room.  Let him come back when he has some real data to work with. Besides, who is the USA to be throwing its weight around, being such a bully. I thought the liberals were against that sort of thing.  Too colonialist.

Declaring a state of emergency

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Looks like the New York City mayor needs to get their priorities straight. London Daily Mail:

Furious New Yorkers slam De Blasio for giving no warning about Hurricane Ida: NYC Mayor only declared state of emergency AFTER seven people - including a family of three - were found dead in their basements as tri-state death toll rises to at least 41

    • 41 people are dead across the Northeast including 12 people in New York City alone
    • Eleven people drowned in their basement homes in Brooklyn and Queens, including a two-year-old boy
    • Their bodies were all found between 10pm and midnight but a state of emergency wasn't declared until 11.30
    • The subway system was not suspended until 10.48pm and a Flash Flood Emergency went out at 10.25pm
    • The NWS in New York had declared it an hour earlier, shortly before 9.30pm
    • Furious New Yorkers blamed de Blasio for not giving them more warning or communicating the severity
    • De Blasio said on Thursday he thought 3 to 6 inches of rain would fall all day - but 3.5 inches fell per hour
    • Governor Kathy Hochul said she was now investigating whether more could have been done to warn people
    • De Blasio, AOC and Senator Chuck Schumer all took the catastrophe back to climate change on Thursday and asked for more commitment from the White House on going green
    • President Biden also spoke on Thursday about Ida but he devoted his speech to climate change too
    • In the meantime, some 25,000 people in NYC were without power and bodies were still being found in water

Furious New Yorkers slammed Mayor Bill de Blasio on Thursday for not giving more warning for the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Ida and only declaring a state of emergency after the bodies of seven residents - including a two-year-old boy - were found in flooded basement homes.  

Ida tormented the South earlier this week as a hurricane then was downgraded to a tropical storm. Meteorologists predicted that it would shower the northeast on Thursday and Friday before moving off-coast, but the amount of rain that fell was beyond anything any residents had anticipated, and tornadoes that ripped up New Jersey had not been expected.  

At least 41 people have been found dead across the states of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Maryland on Thursday, and the death toll is expected to rise.

New Yorkers were largely unaware of what was in store for them last night and many found themselves stuck on trains when the storm hit. The National Weather Service prediction center blasted a tweet at 2.40pm that a severe rainstorm was on the way, but nothing came from de Blasio's office until around 7.20pm. 

I do not see anything on the New York emergency management websites - this will take a couple week to trickle out but I am amazed that there was not more pre-emptive warning from the Mayor's office. They certainly had ample warning that it was headed thier way. A bit more:

The Governors of New Jersey and Pennsylvania gave earlier warnings but New York Governor Kathy Hochul didn't declare a state of emergency until after midnight, and de Blasio only declared a state of emergency at 11.26pm. 

The good thing is that people will remember this when they go to vote.

And, of course, the usual braying ninnies had to get their two cents in:

Senator Chuck Schumer, who was also at the press conference, blamed the ferocity of the storm on climate change.

He and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent Thursday demanding more environmental commitment from the White House.

Schumer would not recognize the truth if it hit him between his eyes.
Living inside a bubble of his own making. Pathetic really...

The article has a good collection of photos - flooding, wind damage. This hit them hard.
The Gulf Coast knew full well what was coming.  New England did not have a clue.

New England - Ida updates

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More fatalities there than in New Orleans. Not as prepared. From the New York Post:

At least 25 people killed overnight in NYC, NJ during historic flooding
At least 25 people were killed across New York and New Jersey — including a 2-year-old boy and his parents who drowned in a basement apartment in Queens — as the tail-end of Hurricane Ida ravaged the northeast.

The storm knocked out power and flooded streets, homes and subways — prompting the first-ever flash flood emergency for the Big Apple and leaving a trail of devastation across the northeast.

Eleven people died in the city after becoming trapped in flooded basement apartments and one person was found dead in the back of their car on the Grand Central Parkway in Queens.

Lousiana is still showing over 900K people without power - a lot of the primary distribtion lines were damaged. Pennsylvania has 55K out and New York state has 19K, New Jersey is at 39K.

I feel the power!

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Looks like Entergy has 857,702 customers without power this morning.  Now, the work begins.

They should just raze the town and rebuild 100 miles upriver. This is from the New Orleans Sewage and Water Board:

Although we have lost all Entergy power, our teams are working quickly and decisively to make up for this with our self-generated power sources, including Turbines 4, 5, and 6 and EMD, as well as backup generators located at our drainage pumping stations. The Entergy loss of power is a significant loss of power for our 60 hz pumps and the 25 hz pumps we power through the frequency changers, but we are using our self-generated sources of power to drain stormwater and pump drinking water into the city.

This power loss also impacts our sewer pumping stations. Currently there is no backup power to operate any of those that were impacted. We are assessing how many of the 84 stations are impacted but the number may be very significant. We have worked to obtain backup power for some of these stations & we will mobilize those units when it is safe to traverse the city. In order to prevent sewage backups, we have asked residents to limit water usage at home, thus decreasing the amount of wastewater we must remove. This is a rapidly-developing situation. We will keep you updated as circumstances develop.

Got water? Good.  No sewerage? Not so good. A major part of the city is below sea level (see my line about relocating the city 100 miles upriver) so this is going to be a problem.

To all those bench-warmers in DC - this is infrastructure.  This is what needs to be addressed and not some feel-good social service. Here is a map of downtown New Orleans. Where it is red, there is no electricity:

20210829-nola-power.jpg

That is what 831,659 customers without electricity looks like. We will know more tomorrow.

He's dead Jim

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The Cats Meow webcam is down for the count.  It still streams little bits but nothing live.  There was a part of the web page that showed some weather stats.  It now reads:

20210829-nola-cam.jpg

Entergy now has 641,650 customers without power. There are eight other large (20k+ customers) energy utilities that serve LA - total outages are around 764,000 for the whole state. Mississippi is fairing a lot better with only about 16k outages at this time. Texas is 3k for the whole state.

And back again - errands run

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The webcam from New Orleans is "unavailable" - I get little jerks of motion but nothing reliable and no time-stamp on the new footage. Buffering from earlier footage? I tried to check the New Orleans  traffic cams but everyone I looked at is" "Image currently unavailable"

Entergy is now at 572,974 customers out.

Picking up - 40mph gusting to 54

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New Orleans webcam: Cats Meow

Saw one person walking - hope they have a place to hole up. Entergy is now at 324,433 customers without power.

Window into the storm - New Orleans

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Webcam from The Cat's Meow - landfall is during daylight so should be some interesting watching. Live audio too - turn on the speaker icon to listen.

Calm before the storm for now...

A couple hours away - Hurricane Ida

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See how they do this time.  From FOX News:

Eye of hurricane will reach southeastern Louisiana in 'next four hours'
The eye of an "extremely dangerous" Hurricane Ida will reach the coast of Louisiana "within the next few hours" as the Category 4 storm moves inland.

"Hurricane-force winds" and a "catastrophic storm surge" is reaching the southwestern part of the state, according to a 10 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center.

Something to remember was that Hurricane Katrina was "only" a Cat 3 storm when it made landfall. Ida is maintaining a Cat 4 strength.

Still no Declaration of Emergency from Louisiana.  Mississippi got theirs in well before the event.

And they are on it - Mississippi

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Let us hope that Louisiana gets with the program soonest.  From FEMA:

20210828-FEMA-MI.jpg

Now the Federal Government can transport people, aid, troops, supplies, etc... into Mississippi. Each State in this Republic is a sovereign entity and the Federal Government can not come in without permission. This is in several parts of the Constitution.  The Tenth Amendment to the Constitution makes it even clearer.
Governor Blanco really blew it with Katrina. She waited for three days before asking.

16th Aniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Henri turned out to be a nothingburger but Ida is packing some serious heat.
From FOX News:

Ida prompts New Orleans evacuations; expected to strengthen to Category 4 hurricane

Almost all gulf oil production "shut in" as Hurricane Ida makes its way to New Orleans
Oil and gas wells at the bottom of the ocean have been "shut in" and half of all offshore oil and gas production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have been evacuated as Hurricane Ida makes its way toward Louisiana.

"This involves closing the sub-surface safety valves located below the surface of the ocean floor to prevent the release of oil or gas," the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said in a statement. "Shutting in oil and gas production is a standard procedure conducted by industry for safety and environmental reasons."

Half of all offshore oil and gas production platforms, 279 of 560, were evacuated as of Saturday.

And:

Louisiana Governor warns residents to spend the next 24 hours preparing ahead of Hurricane Ida
Louisiana Gov. Jon Bel Edwards told the public to evacuate if they need to and spend the next 24 hours preparing before Hurricane Ida makes landfall Sunday, which will mark exactly 16 years since Hurricane Katrina hit the state.

"I know that tomorrow, for many people, is a very difficult anniversary. It is the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. I'm also aware that it is very painful to think about another powerful storm like Hurricane Ida making landfall on that anniversary," Gov. Bel Edwards said at a press conference on Saturday afternoon.

Several other stories at the site. FEMA is gearing up but can not really move in until the Governor declares a State of Emergency and requests aid.  This is what caused all the problems with Katrina as the governor then froze and did not issue the SOE until three days later.

Say hello to Hurricane Ida

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Going to hit Louisana on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Cone chart from the National Hurricane Center:

20210827-ida.jpg

Hello Henri

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Lived in Boston and New England from 1969 through 1982 and enjoyed several hurricanes and a bunch of tropical storms (Doria, Ginny, Doria, Carrie, Belle and Gloria) - this is nothing new for the area. There was a 30 year hiatus but Hurricane Henri is on track to provide some fun and games.

From National Public Radio:

New England Is Facing Its 1st Direct Hurricane Landfall In 30 Years
The National Hurricane Center has issued a rare hurricane watch for parts of New England, warning that Tropical Storm Henri will likely develop into a hurricane before making landfall on the northeastern U.S. coast this weekend.

"If Henri strikes southeast New England as a hurricane this weekend, it will be the first direct hurricane landfall since Bob in 1991," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spokesman Chris Vaccaro told NPR.

Henri's maximum sustained winds grew to 70 mph on Friday, making it "almost a hurricane," the NHC said in its 2 p.m. ET update. Hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 74 mph.

The hurricane watch was issued early Friday, covering a large portion of Long Island and areas from New Haven, Conn., to Sagamore Beach, Mass., the National Hurricane Center said. Resort islands such as Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are also in the watch zone.

Watch them blame this on "climate change" in 3... 2... 1...

Smoked out - Western Washington

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From local weather guru Cliff Mass:

A Smoke Storm is About to Hit Washington State
Western Washington has escaped serious wildfire smoke at the surface, but that is about to change tonight and tomorrow.

A serious smoke storm will invade western and eastern Washington, and those that are vulnerable should prepare.

Cliff has a lot of details for the weather nuts out there (me) as well as this video - I am doing a very similar thing here for dust and pollen:

Their video shows them using a drill and some metal hardware angle brackets... I just use wide blue painters tape to stick it to the fan. These fans are usually 20" square so make sure to buy 20X20 furnace filters.  Works great and much cheaper than those purpose-built appliances you can buy for $80 on up.
No, I do not need WiFi for my air cleaner, I can walk over and turn it on/off myself...

Infrastructure - the northern Midwest

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Wisconsin and Illinois got hammered by some storms two days ago.
The two states had combined power outages of about 320,000 customers.

Today? Michigan's turn - two utilities: DTE Energy with 561,021 customers out and Consumer's Energy with 198,657 customers out.  The lightning has moved South and spread out in a long line from the midwest through Pennsylvania.  Pittsburgh is getting quite the show.  I grew up there and really miss these storms - I love thunder and lightning.

20210812-tstorm.jpg

Again, those folks would love a real infrastructure bill right now. One that actually does what it says on the box.
Instead, we are getting 5+ billion dollars of pork.

Just as an aid for visualisation, if you had one billion dollars and spent one dollar every second 24/7, it would take you 31 years to spend everything. One billion dollars is a lot of money.

Quite the storm - midwest

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Was looking at the lightning map for this area.  I also like to zoom back out and see the rest of the planet.
Lots of t-storm activity in the midwest tonight:

20210810-tstorm.jpg

Out of curiosity, I checked the power outage websites for Wisconsin (154,285 customers without power) and Illinois (179,850 customers without power).

IL - looks like Chicago is mostly dark. Stretches out to the West too.
WI - Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay - show major outages too.

From NBC News:

Nearly 200,000 Without Power as Severe Storms Pound Chicago Area, ComEd Says
Nearly 200,000 ComEd customers are without power as bands of severe thunderstorms pound northern Illinois with ferocious winds in excess of 60 miles per hour in some locations.

According to the latest data from the utility, 194,467 customers are without power due to the fast-moving storms, which are speeding through the area Tuesday evening.

Bet those folks would love a real infrastructure bill right now. One that actually does what it says on the box.

Of course, cue the Climate Change braying ninnies in 3... 2... 1...

The IPCC releases its reports every five years or so. They are always breathtaking, hair-on-fire, OMFG we gonna die.

The previous reports are never looked at as they contain inconvenient truths - they are always wrong.

The California Drought

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I had written that this is a cyclical weather event and nothing to do with global warming.
Just found these this morning: Lake Oroville in 2017, April 2021 and now:

20210728-oroville.jpg

The Drought

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OMG - we are running out of water.  Lake Mead is drying up. Global Warming is all to blame.
Some people don't know their history - from John Steinbeck's East of Eden:

I have spoken of the rich years when the rainfall was plentiful. But there were dry years too, and they put a terror on the valley. The water came in a thirty-year cycle. There would be five or six wet and wonderful years when there might be nineteen to twenty-five inches of rain, and the land would shout with grass. Then would come six or seven pretty good years of twelve to sixteen inches of rain. And then the dry years would come, and sometimes there would be only seven or eight inches of rain. The land dried up and the grasses headed out miserably a few inches high and great bare scabby places appeared in the valley. The live oaks got a crusty look and the sagebrush was gray. The land cracked and the springs dried up and the cattle listlessly nibbled dry twigs. Then the farmers and the ranchers would be filled with disgust for the Salinas Valley. The cows would grow thin and sometimes starve to death. People would have to haul water in barrels to their farms just for drinking. Some families would sell out for nearly nothing and move away. And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.

Published in 1952.  This is not some forgotten 70-year-old history either.  Anyone remember the Oroville Dam crisis of 2017 - higher than normal rainfall and snowmelt triggered it.  This is not climate, this is weather and it has cycles.
Plain and simple.

Major flooding in Europe

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And the coverup that ensues - from American Thinker:

Merkel blames 'climate change' for Germany's bad floods, but real reason was botched local warning system
Germany has made a big deal about how global warming is the reason behind the region's catastrophic floods.

According to NBC News:

"The German language hardly knows any words for the devastation that has been caused here," [Chancellor Angela Merkel] said.

She said the force of the storms suggested that they had "something to do with climate change," adding, "We have to hurry, we have to get faster in the fight against climate change."

And a few more examples, also citing Biden as well as Merkel's finance minister.

Clearer heads prevail at The London Times:

Germany knew the floods were coming, but the warnings didn’t work
The first signs of catastrophe were detected nine days ago by a satellite orbiting 500 miles above the tranquil hills around the Rhine river.

Over the next few days a team of scientists sent the German authorities a series of forecasts so accurate that they now read like a macabre prophecy: the Rhineland was about to be hit by “extreme” flooding, particularly along the Erft and Ahr rivers, and in towns such as Hagen and Altena.

Yet despite at least 24 hours’ warning that predicted, almost precisely, which districts would be worst afflicted when the rains came, the flood still caught many of its victims largely unawares.

Germany got its preparations “badly wrong”, one of the experts who built Europe’s sophisticated flood prediction model told The Sunday Times. Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at Reading University, said that a “monumental failure of the system” had led to one of postwar Germany’s deadliest natural disasters, which had by last night claimed at least 133 lives since Wednesday and left hundreds of people unaccounted for. At least another 24 people were dead across the border in Belgium, a figure that the country’s national crisis centre expected to rise, while the rains forced thousands from their homes in the Netherlands.

They had the warnings, they didn't do anything. They would rather natter about global warming and one world government than actually do their jobs and protect their citizens. For all that I grouse about this Nation, we have it good compared to others.

All of the greenies in the USA are yammering about HOW WE MUST DO SOMETHING
Meanwhile, in the real world...  From the London Daily Mail:

Just 25 'mega-cities' produce 52 per cent of the world's urban greenhouse gas emissions — and 23 of them are in China

    • Researchers from Sun Yat-sen University recorded the emissions of 167 cities
    • The largest carbon emitters were found to be Asian megacities like Shanghai
    • Cities in Europe and the US emit more than those in most developing countries
    • Of 42 cities with data spanning 2012–2016, 30 showed emissions reductions
    • Yet the team warned we are not on track to meet global climate change targets

Just over half of the world's urban greenhouse gas emissions come from just 25 mega-cities — 23 of which are located in China — a study has reported.

The cities that emit the most greenhouse gases included Handan, Suzhou, Dalian, Beijing and Tianjin in China — but also Tokyo, Japan, and Moscow, Russia.

China's President Xi Jinping has pledged to cap carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 — part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement.

Yeah... Riiight... The old joke about how to tell when a politician is lying? His lips are moving.
Full list at the site. New York City is the first American city at #26 on the list. San Diego at #41
I think you get the picture.

Fudging the numbers

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Heat deaths in Washington State.  From Seattle station KOMO:

Washington's heat wave death toll rises to 78
Washington State health officials say at least 78 people died from heat-related illnesses during last week’s extreme heat wave.

In comparison, 39 people died from heat-related illnesses from 2015 – 2020, including seven last summer, according to data from the state health department.

They cut their numbers off at 2015.

The major heat wave of July/August 2009 would be - how shall we say - an inconvenient truth...

How hot was it

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Seen on the road:

20210630-portland.jpg

Great post mortem of the heat event

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Local legend Cliff Mass does his usual wonderful analysis of the heat event:

The Big Heat Post Mortem and the Next Few Days
It's over.

Throughout the region, all-time temperature records have been broken, if not smashed. Just to name a few:

    • SeaTac hit 108F, beating the previous record of 103F.
    • Olympia reached 109F, exceeding the previous record of 105F
    • Quillayute, on the WA coast, zoomed to 110F, absolutely smashing the previous record of 99F
    • Portland hit 116F, incinerating the previous record of 107F.
    • In eastern Washington, Dallesport tied the all-time state record of 118F
    • East of I5, many locations in western Washington exceeded 110F yesterday.

Believe it or not.
Seattle now has a higher record maximum temperature than Miami, Atlanta, Washington DC, or Chicago. Portland's record high exceeded that of Houston, Austin, or San Diego.

Over 50 observing sites in western Washington surged above 110F

You want record high temperatures? Come to the Northwest!

Much more at the site - a very good look at a very unusual event.

I'll take it - weather forecast

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Sitting here smiling over my oatmeal:

20210629-forecast.jpg

Staring down the barrel - weather

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Tomorrow is going to be a ball-buster followed by a major drop in temps.
Cliff Mass has the scoop:

Even More Extreme: Extraordinary Record Highs Followed by Perhaps the Most Rapid Cooling in Northwest History
If you are living west of the Cascade crest of Oregon and Washington, tomorrow will be a day you will never forget.

The latest model runs, all at very high resolution, show even more profound extremes than previously predicted. And the end of the event will be extraordinary, with temperatures falling by as much as 50F within a few hours.

A couple of patterns lined up just right to cause this.  One for the record-books.
Much more at his site.  Circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back.

20210612-warming.jpg

I am a climate skeptic.  I do not deny that we have been in a warming trend from the early part of this century through the last 10-20 years.  To me though, the idea that we are responsible for this and that our un-checked actions will cause catastrophic climate change is just pure hubris.  We are not that powerful - the Earth's climate mechanisms are more powerful and larger than we could ever aspire.

A great look at The Greenhouse Effect from a Physicist:

Mathematical Proof of the Greenhouse Effect
I am sometimes shocked by the number of climate change skeptics who are certain that the “Greenhouse Effect” (GHE) isn’t real.

As a physicist, I’m as certain of the reality of the Greenhouse Effect as I am that 1 + 1 = 2.

The GHE depends on physical principles that have been well-known and well-tested for 137 years. There really should be no question as to its reality, among anyone who knows and respects science.

Note that being certain about the GHE being real is different than being certain about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), the hypothesis that human-caused increases in the concentrations of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere are causing highly problematic changes in the Earth’s climate.

AGW is a far more complex phenomenon than the GHE alone. One can be skeptical about AGW while totally accepting the reality of the GHE.

I know many readers are deeply skeptical about AGW. I encourage you to consider finding a way to honor your beliefs without denying the reality of the GHE.

The writer:  Bob Wentworth, Ph.D. takes us through an analysis of our climate dynamics, a look at the Stefan-Boltzmann Law and he runs the numbers.  The conclusion is interesting. A wee bit of explanation first.  The sunlight that warms us is referred to short-wave radiation.  Visible light.  The Earth absorbs this energy and warms. The Earth then re-radiates or gives off its heat through long-wave radiation.  Infrared light. The greenhouse gasses are those gasses which block the long-wave or LW radiation and trap all of the heat inside the Earth's atmosphere.

Bob's conclusion:

In other words:

    1. If there were no LW-absorbing (or LW-scattering) materials in Earth’s atmosphere, and it emitted the same average LW radiant exitance (upwelling LW radiation) to space (which would be expected in steady-state if the absorbed insolation was held constant), then the average surface temperature could not be warmer than Tₑ = 259 K (-14℃).
    2. Given that Earth’s atmosphere does include LW-absorbing and LW-scattering materials which allow there to be more LW radiation emitted by the surface than what reaches space, the average surface of the Earth can be no higher than 294 K (21℃).

Given that the average surface temperature of the Earth is typically estimated to be about 288 K (15℃), this satisfies the constraint of being no higher than 294 K (21℃).

So - given absolutely zero greenhouse activity, we would be a snowball.  -14°C is pretty damned cold.
Our present "average" temperature is 15°C which pencils out to 59°F - sounds about right.

Given an absolute balls-out maximum warming, CO2 production cranked up to eleven, our average temperature could only rise to 21°C - 69.8°F. Somewhat warmer but not dangerous by any stretch of the imagination. Not catastrophic. Not at all. What's the worry?

Bob gives all the math if you want to work through it yourself.  Basic high-school algebra and the relationships being used here have been known for the last 137 years.  They have been tested and tested again and have been shown to be perfect. Accurate. No fudging or cherry-picking allowed in science.

As a Coda here, my concern is that we are heading into a period of cooling similar to the Maunder Minimum.  Our sun has been very quiet recently. Our governments need to explore this and take action as more people die from cold than die from heat.  If this is going to be happening, we need to prepare.

No surprises - against fossil fuels

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When it comes to the anthropogenic global warming scam, John Kerry is all against fossil fuels.
When it comes to making money? That is a different story - from the Daily Caller:

John Kerry Invested In Oil And Gas Stocks Before Joining White House, Filings Show
Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry owned shares of multiple oil and gas corporations prior to joining the White House, ethics filings show.

John Kerry previously invested in Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation, Duke Energy, Cimarex, Dominion Energy, Xcel Energy, Exelon Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation and WEC Energy Group, according to Office of Government Ethics filings obtained by Axios. Kerry sold off his entire stock portfolio, which was worth between $4.2 and $15 million, prior to joining President Joe Biden’s administration.

The Texas-based Valero Energy Corporation was recently ranked the fifth-worst emitter of greenhouse gasses despite having just 14 facilities, the San Antonio Current reported in December. The company was ordered to pay $2.85 million in a civil penalty in October for Clean Air Act violations, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Nothing like walking the walk after you talk the talk. What with all the rising ocean levels, it is good to know that he owns an $11 Million beachfront home in Martha's Vineyard. I will believe that there is a climate crisis when the people who are telling me that there is a climate crisis start acting like there is a climate crisis.  Simple as that.

This should be blindingly apparent to anyone who actually goes outside and checks the temperature.
From the New York Post:

Obama administration scientist says climate ‘emergency’ is based on fallacy
‘The Science,” we’re told, is settled. How many times have you heard it? 

Humans have broken the earth’s climate. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless they’re eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, “The Science” says Earth is doomed. 

Yes, it’s true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. But beyond that — to paraphrase the classic movie “The Princess Bride” — “I do not think ‘The Science’ says what you think it says.” 

Much more at the site.  A lot of the "science" - including the (in)famous Michael Mann Hockey Stick graph - is based on computer models and "reconstruction". The numbers are cherry-picked to advance the narrative. All the while, everything points to a cooling trend lasting for maybe several hundred years. Our sun is a variable star and is entering a quiet cycle.

Earth day - the state of the climate

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A wonderful compilation of 50 years of climate scares.  From the Competitive Enterprise Institute:

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions
Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today.

None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true.

What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science.

While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

What is wonderful about this article is that they post pictures of the articles along with links to source materials.  Here are three of them:

20210423-eco01.jpg

20210423-eco02.jpg

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Much much more at the site.  People need to remember that these people have always been wrong.

To state this simply, any prediction of catastrophe has always failed.
Don't believe me? Show me.  Point me to a prediction of catastrophe that was correct.

Simple as that.  Disagree? Show me.

Not evil.  The core constituant of all life on this planet.  From William Briggs:

The Looming Decarbocalypse — Guest Post by Uncle Mike
It goes without saying, but must be said anyway, that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the fundamental building block of all life. Every atom of carbon in your body (we are all carbon-based lifeforms) was once atmospheric CO2. Every molecule of Oxygen (O2) that you breathe (without which we would rapidly expire) was once atmospheric CO2.

The way life works is this: green plants (and algae) take in atmospheric CO2 and via photosynthesis turn it into plant sugars and free O2. Sunlight and water are also required for photosynthesis. Complex proteins including RuBisCO (see here) catalyze the reactions that capture CO2 and fix it into plant food. Green plants are the foundational base, the first link in the Food Chain. All animals ultimately rely on green plants for food. That includes fish and people. Even carnivores that never eat plants must consume animals that do eat plants.

Thus CO2 is the fundamental, essential, indispensable, crucial, all important substance for Life. Without CO2 there would be no life. Planet Earth would be a dead planet. Everybody with just a minuscule education knows this. Every scientist, whom we must assume has more than a minuscule education, knows this. It’s a fact if ever a fact there was.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has declared CO2 a “pollutant”. Ditto the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC). Scads of politicians, lobbyists, Big Media morons, and general idiots are bugged out of their minds about CO2. They want to eliminate it, despite the FACT that life depends utterly on CO2. How’s that for crazy? It’s worse than crazy, however. It’s deadly stupid. These ignorant savages want to eliminate Life Itself. That’s ABSOLUTE EVIL with all caps.

Much more at the site - lots of data and links.  Uncle Mike is speaking the truth. Our political elites are gearing up for a big push about "climate emergency" over the next couple of months. Be prepared. Be armed with the facts. Do not yield to these idiots. They are tryely clueless and are only jockying for political gain and using the crisis de jour as their lever. This will blow over and some new crisis will come over the horizon.

The single fact to take away from all this?  Carbon Dioxide is Plant Food. Essential for all life.
Without it, you and I would not be alive.

From Climate Change Dispatch:

It’s Official: Greenland Hasn’t Warmed Since 2001
A new study (Hanna et al., 2021) affirms a significant warming trend occurred in the late 20th century across Greenland, mirroring the warming that occurred in the early 20th century.

Since 2001, the temperature trends across Greenland have stopped rising and begun cooling.

A temperature pattern has been emerging in Greenland during the last few decades that does not align with alarming proclamations of catastrophic ice sheet melt from accelerated warming.

After significant summer (winter) warming of about 2°C (to 4°C) from the 1980s to 2000, Greenland’s warming trend has plateaued and, since 2012, a cooling trend has commenced.

Much more at the site - links to actual data instead of computer models. Everything points to a cooling period.

Start preparing - NOW.

Stormy weather - really stormy

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It was pretty stormy around here last Sunday and Monday.  How stormy?
How about sustained winds of 100 MPH for over 15 hours.  From Cliff Mass:

143 mph in the Cascades, Snowflakes in the Lowlands, and Strong Winds: A Very Powerful Cold Front Crosses the Region
A powerful cold front moved through the region yesterday.

At Camp Muir at 10,000 ft winds gusted to 143 mph, with winds over 100 mph for 15 hours. Amazing.

Ho. Li. Crap. That is powerful. Been up to Camp Muir a couple of times by myself and summited Rainier twice.
I love the ocean but the mountains have their call as well.

Harbinger of spring - SR-20

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One of the harbingers of spring showed up today - this announcement from the WA State Department of Transportation:

Spring clearing of SR 20 North Cascades Highway starts April 5
A telltale sign of spring in the Pacific Northwest is the clearing of State Route 20 North Cascades Highway between the Methow and Skagit valleys, and this year’s reopening work is scheduled to start April 5.

Depending on weather conditions, reopening usually takes about 4 to 6 weeks.

More snow than usual
The pass closes every year in late November or early December based on snow conditions. Dozens of avalanche paths cross the highway, making it too dangerous to keep the highway open through the winter. In 2020, the North Cascades closed on Nov. 13. Our maintenance and avalanche control crews assess snow levels and avalanche conditions in early spring to determine a date to begin reopening work.

This year’s snow levels were slightly higher than average and the Liberty Bell avalanche chutes still hold a substantial amount of snow. This presents a potential safety hazard for reopening crews, so allowing for additional melt off makes more manageable and safer conditions for workers.

Snow level higher than average?  Sounds like global warming to me...

Looks like we are in for a spell of weather. From Cliff Mass:

A Powerful Front Will Cross Washington Bringing Strong Winds and Snow in the Mountains (A Perhaps Some Flakes to the Lowlands)
A powerful Pacific front is bearing down on Washington State, reaching the coast tomorrow morning.

Behind the front is unusually cool air for late March, cold enough to bring snowflakes to the higher hills of the region, and bountiful snow in the mountains. And there will be winds.

The predicted surface weather maps provide the story (below). These maps show sea level pressure, temperature (color shading, blue is cold, yellow is warmer), and near-surface winds.

The first weather map, valid for 8 AM Sunday morning, shows the front (red line) offshore. That front is in a region lower pressure (a pressure trough) and you will note much cooler (bluer) air behind. Also, note the large north-south pressure difference across western Washington...that means winds.

More at the site - looks big. Hunkering down.  Still planning to drive up to the farm later today but it is not going to be the sunny weather that was being forecast a few days ago. Meeting up with D. tomorrow - it will be fun to catch up.

From Watts Up With That comes a look at the recorded temperature data for Iceland and Greenland.
Warming? Quite the contrary:

Greenland And Iceland Mean Winter Temperatures Continue Cooling Since Start Of The Century
The February 2021 data for Iceland and Greenland are available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which means the latest meteorological DJF winter mean temperature can be computed.

Icelandic winters have cooled since 2001
We plotted the JMA data for three stations (the ones with sufficient data) in Iceland. Result: no warming over the past 18 winters!

Lots of numbers and charts and actual data and all that good stuff.  Nary a computer model in sight. Getting colder out there. Sun's activity is quieting down. Prepare for colder temperatures.

A big ole' blast of Winter

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Spring (the Vernal Equinox) may only be a few days away but the coming cold period is making its presence known.
From The Denver Post (with more reporting here and yes, it is record-breaking weather):

Winter storm dumps snow across Denver and the Front Range
More than 19 inches of snow fell at Denver International Airport between Saturday and Sunday morning, making this snowstorm one of the biggest in the last 15 years. And it’s not over yet.

From the PowerOutage.US website, we can see that Colorado has 24K customers without power.

Our sun is very quiet right now and all the hype over Carbon Dioxide is just that. When the sun is active, we are warmer.  When the sun is quiet, we are colder. Ice ages and warmth. Our sun is a variable star. The idea that we as humans can impact the climate of Earth is pure fscking hubris and nothing more. Earth is huge and robust. It has been here before we showed up and it will be here for long after we are gone.

September 2021

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