Recently in Climate Category

Our variable sun - global cooling

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I have been saying for a long time that the whole campaign demonizing carbon dioxide and seeking to limit industrial development is a political manouver and not a scientific one. Our climate is naturally variable and to think that us humans can have a significant effect is pure blind hubris. We are simply do not have that big a footprint.

Now it seems that our sun is entering a major period of coolinng off and the effects are becoming very obvious - here are a couple instances:

From NASA's Space Weather:

The Chill of Solar Minimum
The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

And, wonder of wonders, Dr. Mlynczak is talking about actual observed data and not the output of some dodgy computer model:

These results come from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas at the very top of the atmosphere–a layer researchers call “the thermosphere.”

Much more at the site - this is some very well thought out and interesting science.
Next up - from Boston MA station WBZ:

Will The Snowiest Decade Continue?
Despite the snow blitz of 2015, many baby boomers still insist that, overall, we don’t get the harsh bitter cold and deep snowy winters like we did in the good ole days.

Weather records prove that just isn’t the case and despite the ongoing claims that snows are becoming rare and hurting winter sports, this millennium has been a blessing to snow lovers and winter sports enthusiasts.

Just as the Saffir-Simpson and Fujita Scales were devised to categorize hurricanes and tornadoes, the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) was created by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National Weather Service to rank high-impact Northeast storms. This scale has 5 categories including extreme, crippling, major, significant and notable. In addition to meteorological measurements, the index uses population information which provides an indication of a storm’s impacts on society. The NESIS scores are a function of the amount of snow, the area affected by the snowstorm and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over 10 for extreme storms.

And here is the NESIS chart. Each bar represents ten years starting at 1958 to present:

20181116-nesis.jpg

Finally, it is not just cold in the Eastern USA - from David Middleton writing at Watts Up With That:

Antarctic temperatures recently plunged close to the theoretically coldest achievable on Earth!
This story was previously discussed here at WUWT… But, why wasn’t this headline news in the Washington Post, New York Times, etc.? Yes… That was a rhetorical question.

Ultralow Surface Temperatures in East Antarctica From Satellite Thermal Infrared Mapping: The Coldest Places on Earth
T. A. Scambos, G. G. Campbell, A. Pope, T. Haran, A. Muto, M. Lazzara, C. H. Reijmer, M. R. van den Broeke
First published: 25 June 2018

[…]

Plain Language Summary
The lowest measured air temperature on Earth is −89.2 °C (−129 F) on 23 July 1983, observed at Vostok Station in Antarctica (Turner et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012104). However, satellite data collected during the Antarctic polar night during 2004–2016 reveal a broad region of the high East Antarctic Plateau above Vostok that regularly reaches snow surface temperatures of −90 °C and below. These occur in shallow topographic depressions near the highest part of the ice sheet, at 3,800 to 4,050‐m elevation. Comparisons with nearby automated weather stations suggest that air temperatures during these events are near −94 ± 4 °C or about −138 F. Ultracold conditions (below −90 °C) occur more frequently when the Antarctic polar vortex is strong. This temperature appears to be about as low as it is possible to reach, even under clear skies and very dry conditions, because heat radiating from the cold clear air is nearly equal to the heat radiating from the bitterly cold snow surface.

The paper in question can be found here: Ultralow Surface Temperatures... Dr. Middleton then goes on to cite two other papers on low temperatures in the Antarctic.

Global cooling is at our doorstep and there is little we can do about it. When I think of the billions of dollars that have been completely wasted on this - money that came out of our wallets and could have been put to better use (electricity and clean water in 3rd world villages for example) it makes me sick.

Ho Li Crap - Mike Olbinsky

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Mike is one of the better weather photographers out there and his latest is truly epic:

Tip of the hat to Cliff Mass for the link. He offers a nice explanation for some of the phenomena in the video.

About that global warming

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It's from all the greenhouse gasses that we, as an industralized people, are pumping out into the atmosphere. Our sun is a fixed star and has nothing to do with the upcoming global warming cooling. From Dr. Tony Philips at NASA's Space Weather website:

The Chill of Solar Minimum
The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.

“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

Quite the nip in the air here - thinking of building a fire to warm the house up a bit. I have a heat pump running in my new DaveCave so it is nice and comfortable up there but down in the main room where I am working, there is a definite chill in the air. Plus, I can use it to get rid of the papers I am tossing.

Lest we forget - Typhoon Mangkhut

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Hurricane Florence is not the only big storm on our planet. Typhoon Mangkhut is dealing devastation to the Philippines and China. Three headlines with links:

Prayers going out to these poor people. The casinos will be fine - they were built to withstand this sort of weather. The people who make their living on the water - fishing, transport - not so much. Rebuilding will take a long time. President Trump's fault of course...

Hurricane Florence - fake news

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Two great examples of fake news on the Hurricane Florence reporting. From Anthony Watts

First:

Hilarious! @weatherchannel reporter fakes intensity of #HurricaneFlorence wind – gets caught
You can’t make this stuff up. The Weather Channel typically sends a reporter to hurricane landfalls to file live reports. Hurricane Florence is no exception. However, in this case although it appears in the video the reporter can barely stand up in the wind, but when the camera zooms out, his fakery is revealed.

Funny video - the reporter is standing, leaning to one side braced with all his strength and in the background, two guys are talking a pleasent stroll unaffected by the wind. Scroll down for the second video - much better quality

And Second:

Another #fakenews video @CNN Anderson Cooper hypes #HurricaneFlorence flooding – meanwhile firefighters spoof TV news
Yesterday we reported on the hilarious antics of Mike Seidel of The Weather Channel in his performance trying to stand up in wind while others strolled casually by in the background. That video has gone viral. Here’s another example of how media tries to make the storm look worse than it actually was.

CNN’s Anderson Cooper was reporting live on the scene on a flooded road. And for effect, he stands in a ditch at the side of the road, about 3 feet lower.

A couple of still photos taken from a different perspective shows what they were doing. Be sure to scroll down to watch the firefighter video - they had a lot of fun with this...

Great visualization of storm surge

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Florence in the news

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Downgraded to a tropical storm but wtill wreaking havoc with about 600,000 people without electricity.

And of course, President Trump is to blame for it all - from Grabien News:

MEDIA POLITICIZE FLORENCE, BLAME TRUMP FOR STORMS, PREDICT MASS DEATH
Hurricane Florence is now bearing down on North Carolina, and the media is looking to score political points.

On MSNBC, host Chris Hayes invited meteorologist Eric Holthaus on to argue global warming is making hurricanes worse, and that President Trump is to blame.

"We have a president that is denying the impacts of, you know, this hurricane season last year and this year and actively making the problem worse by, you know, not addressing this root cause of worsening storms,” Holthaus told to a nodding Hayes.

On CNN, political analyst John Avlon, in a segment titled "Reality Check," suggested Trump is at fault for Hurricane Florence, and that his climate policies could kill up to 80,000 people per decade.

Is Trump "complicit in this storm?" asked Alisyn Camerota in the segment introduction.

"His policies have been tearing down our defenses to climate change, which is often a blame for extreme weather," Avlon answered. "On the same day Trump was discussing Florence, his EPA proposed rolling back restrictions on emissions of methane. That's just the latest environmental policy targeted by the Trump Administration."

Avlon rattled off a series of Obama-era environmental regulations the Trump Administration is rolling back -- including pulling out of the Paris climate accord — and then boldly predicted a death toll in the thousands.

"It is so bad according to two Harvard scientists, it could lead to 80,000 unnecessary deaths every decade," Avlon said. "Warmer water means more intense storms. When President Trump called Hurricane Florence tremendously wet, he was on to something."

In the Washington Post, the paper editorialized that Trump is "complicit" in Hurricane Florence's anticipated destruction.

"When it comes to extreme weather, Mr. Trump is complicit," the editors wrote. "He plays down humans’ role in increasing the risks, and he continues to dismantle efforts to address those risks. It is hard to attribute any single weather event to climate change. But there is no reasonable doubt that humans are priming the Earth’s systems to produce disasters."

The article goes on to quote some lunacy from MSNBC and closes with Bill Nye being Bill Nye. All hype and alarmism with 100% science-free content.

...nonexistent. The Carolina's have been hit hard before, several times in recorded history. From the Memphis, TN FOX affiliate and Associated Press:

Florence could rival North Carolina's 1954 'benchmark storm'
The last time the midsection of the East Coast stared down a hurricane like this, Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House and Marilyn Monroe and Joe DiMaggio were newlyweds.

Hurricane Florence could inflict the hardest hurricane punch North Carolina has seen in more than 60 years, with rain and wind of more than 130 mph (209 kph).

North Carolina has been hit by only one other Category 4 storm since reliable record keeping began in the 1850s. That was Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Hurricane Hugo made landfall in South Carolina as a Category 4 hurricane in 1989.

Knowing the history doesn't lighten the impact of what will be a very large disaster for many tens of thousands of people. The problem here is that people have become complacent and have built nice houses with oceanfront views and now they will be paying the price.

This is not a result of climate change and actually, everything points to an extended period of cooling in the future. We will be seeing more news stores like this one from the San Francisco Chronicle:

Freak storm slams South Africa: Photos of giraffes walking in snow go viral

Hold on to your hats - Hurricane Florence

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This is going to be an expensive storm - sustained winds are now 140MPH - up from 115 from this morning.

From the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration - sustained wind speeds at 115MPH

20180910-Florence.jpg

Holy Christ - here we go again. From NOAA:

20180902-gordon.jpg

New Orleans = Bullseye  May be a fun place but you would never get me to put down roots there.

Shot:

Student propaganda cruise to the Arctic to be carried by webcast
From August 23 to Sept. 13, the University of Rhode Island’s Inner Space Center (ISC), with major funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and additional support from the Heising-Simons Foundation, will conduct the innovative Northwest Passage Project research expedition with a team of natural and social scientists, students, and a professional film crew. This ground-breaking opportunity is also supported by One Ocean Expeditions as a key marine partner, having operated in Arctic waters for over 20 years.

Chaser (from their Facebook page):

On the morning of August 24th, the Akademik Ioffe — the vessel carrying the participants of the National Science Foundation funded Northwest Passage Project being conducted by the University of Rhode Island — became grounded in the western Gulf of Boothia in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The ship has since been re-floated, and following a full and successful systems check the vessel has repositioned to anchor. We are happy to report that all passengers, including all Northwest Passage Project participants, are safe and are being well cared for. We will provide updates as we resolve the situation.

Geee Mr. Wizard - if only someone had warned them! Like the Canadian Coast Guard:

Good morning, Due to heavier than normal ice concentrations in the Canadian arctic waters north of 70 degrees, the Canadian Coast Guard, recommends that pleasure craft do not navigate in the Beaufort Sea, Barrow, Peel Sound, Franklin Strait and Prince Regent. CCG icebreakers cannot safely escort pleasure craft. Operators of pleasure craft considering a northwest passage should also consider the risk of having to winter in a safe haven in the Arctic, or in the case of an emergency, be evacuated from beset vessels. Safety of mariners is our primary concern. REGARDS, NORDREG CANADA 181256UTC\LR

Tip of the hat to Anthony - lots of snark in the 200+ comments. And this is not the first time a ship carrying climate deniers has gotten stuck. Check out The Spirit of Mawson Fools.

A voice of reason - forest fires

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Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass has this to say about the last two years of forest fire smoke:

Northwest Wildfires: Are We Seeing a "New Normal" Due to Climate Change or The "Old Normal"?
Some of the news media, politicians, and environmental advocacy groups have claimed that the smoke hitting western Washington during the past two summers are a "new normal." That Northwest summers should be smoke and fire free, and that anthropogenic global warming has created a new regime of fires and smoke that has never been experienced before.

What is it with these people not reading their history - they would just need to Google it and see that this is nothing out of the ordinary. Cliff cites a few memorable fires and then says this:

Today, the bill for our suppression of fire and poor forest management in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia has now come due.  Those who blame our dangerous situation on a "new normal" solely resulting from climate change, are not only misinformed, but they can act as obstacles to the actions that are acutely needed:  a massive effort to thin our forests and bring back low-intensity fire.  Some enlightened politicians, like Senator Maria Cantwell, are calling for such an approach...they should be supported.

Emphases by Dr. Mass. This is a case of bad management and not climate change. Lots of great comments to read too. Good post!

Prayers for Hawaii

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Hurricane Lane is heading there - varying between Cat4 and Cat5. Expected to hit Big Island. Here is the live Waikiki webcam:

Here is the National Weather Service website for Hurricane Lane.

Seen over at Instapundit - climate

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From Glenn Reynolds - one of the original bloggers

LET’S SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT: Scientists Predict Next 5 Years Will Be Abnormally Hot. Based on their track record to date, I’m going to make my own preparations.

Heh - we are entering into a period of very low solar activity and these usually coincide with cooling trends - Little Ice Age, Maunder Minimum, Dalton MinimumSpörer Minimum - that kind of thing. A good precis of what a solar minimum is and entails can be found here: Solar Minimum

Not just me - the smoke

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I knew that the smoke last year was really bad and I was thinking that this year was even worse. Turns out I am right. From Cliff Mass:

Seattle's Worst 24h Air Quality on Record
Air quality in western Washington is very poor right now.

Incredibly, in central Puget Sound it is probably the worst in the nearly two-decade observing record of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency for any time of the year.

I have been here a long time and I have never seen anything this bad.

Very pervasive. It will be good when our government starts managing our wildlands properly.

The state is going into debt to counter a theory. From Santa Barbara, CA station KEYT:

California first to sign Green Bond Pledge to fight climate change
California finance officials are taking greener steps to battle climate change blamed by many for the state's chronic, devastating wildfires.

California is the first state to sign the Green Bond Pledge that creates a bond market to finance eco-friendly, carbon-free infrastructure improvement projects.

California is facing an estimated $400 billion funding gap over the next 10 years for infrastructure improvements.

The Green Bond Market is seen as a financing tool for alternative, carbon-free and environmentally friendly infrastructure and capital improvement projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.

"We know that our wildfires are becoming faster, they're becoming more intense", said California Treasurer John Chiang who signed the Green Bond Pledge on Tuesday, "we need to make sure we come up with the proper financing to build infrastructure so that Californians can protect themselves."

$400 billion funding gap and they want to shuttle this money to "green" causes? How about paving the roads - driven on I-5 recently? I did a few years ago and it is one big pothole.

The wildfires are not becoming faster - they are a direct result of poor management. Management by sound-bite and not management by science. Here is a great video on the problem:

Nothing like sticking it to the taxpayer while funding something that has no real effect - it only sounds good on television. There is great evidence that we are heading into a period of cooling similar to the little ice age or Maunder Minimum.

Dr. Moore was one of the two original founders of Greenpeace. It used to be a science-based organization. I was a member then but dropped out when they started promoting rhetoric instead of science. Dr. Moore dropped out too - for the same reason.

From Watts Up With That:

Twelve Invisible Eco-Catastrophes and Threats of Doom That are Actually Fake
Some time ago it struck me that the majority of alleged environmental catastrophes and threats are invisible or very remote, thus making it virtually impossible for the average person to validate them through observation. Observations, along with replications of those observations, are the very foundation of the scientific method. Seeing is believing, and seeing the same result again and again under similar circumstances reinforces the belief. Is it possible that activist groups and the media choose to cite supposed catastrophes and threats that are invisible, very remote or both because the majority of people cannot verify them in person and therefore must rely on the activists, the media, and other third parties to tell them the truth? At the conclusion of this essay, the reader may judge. Here’s a list of some of the alleged invisible catastrophes and threats of doom, beginning with one of the former.

Coral reefs around the world are dying
This is only one of the many supposed catastrophes blamed on invisible human CO2 emissions and human-caused climate change. In April 2016 most major media outlets ran a story implying that 93% of the Great Barrier Reef, the largest in the world, was “dead”, “nearly dead”, or “dying”. This was all based on a report that 93% of reefs in the northern section had “some bleaching”. “Some” could be only 1 percent. And bleaching is not death or even dying. It is a normal occurrence during periods of high heat and the coral usually recovers. Of course, as with all species, some are dying and others are being born at any given time.

It is well known that the world’s warmest oceans are in the region of Indonesia, the Philippines, and the Solomon Islands. This area is called the Coral Triangle and it harbors the world’s largest number of coral species and the largest number of reef fish and other reef dwellers. Surely this puts to rest the assertion that the world’s seas are “too hot” for coral reefs due to climate change.

How is the average person in Europe or North America supposed to “see for themselves” what is really occurring? Not only is the reef thousands of miles away from most people and far offshore, it is below the surface of the sea. Hundreds of millions of people were told the reef was doomed when we now know much of the bleached coral has already recovered. But that fact was barely reported in major media outlets. Fake news flies, the real story never gets off the ground.

Dr. Moore also debunks these:

    • Polar bears will become extinct
    • Climate catastrophe is inevitable due an increase in atmospheric CO2 if we don’t end the use of fossil fuels
    • Pesticide residues in our food causes cancer, birth defects, autism, and brain damage
    • Africa’s Oldest Baobab Trees are Dying at an Unprecedented Rate, and Climate Change may be to Blame
    • GMOs will harm us and damage the environment
    • Farmed salmon are full of poisons and they are destroying the wild salmon
    • Nuclear energy is too dangerous and radiation will kill you
    • There is a “sea of plastic” the size of Texas in the North Pacific Gyre north of Hawaii
    • There are a possible 3,000,000 undersea volcanoes doing something unobserved
    • Ocean “Acidification” will kill all the coral reefs and shellfish in the world
    • Climate Change is Killing the Cedars of Lebanon

A long article but a very good one. Dr. Moore posts links to the actual data for each of these claims and they are all bunk.

Delightful editorial at the Wall Street Journal:

Climate Change Has Run Its Course
Climate change is over. No, I’m not saying the climate will not change in the future, or that human influence on the climate is negligible. I mean simply that climate change is no longer a pre-eminent policy issue. All that remains is boilerplate rhetoric from the political class, frivolous nuisance lawsuits, and bureaucratic mandates on behalf of special-interest renewable-energy rent seekers.

Judged by deeds rather than words, most national governments are backing away from forced-marched decarbonization. You can date the arc of climate change as a policy priority from 1988, when highly publicized congressional hearings first elevated the issue, to 2018. President Trump’s ostentatious withdrawal from the Paris Agreement merely ratified a trend long becoming evident.

A good indicator of why climate change as an issue is over can be found early in the text of the Paris Agreement. The “nonbinding” pact declares that climate action must include concern for “gender equality, empowerment of women, and intergenerational equity” as well as “the importance for some of the concept of ‘climate justice.’ ” Another is Sarah Myhre’s address at the most recent meeting of the American Geophysical Union, in which she proclaimed that climate change cannot fully be addressed without also grappling with the misogyny and social injustice that have perpetuated the problem for decades.

The descent of climate change into the abyss of social-justice identity politics represents the last gasp of a cause that has lost its vitality. Climate alarm is like a car alarm—a blaring noise people are tuning out.

Pure schadenfreude - if the greenies were serious about lowering carbon (they fail to realize that CO2 is plant food), they would be promoting nuclear but nuke does not fit their narrative. Instead, Billions of our tax dollars are being spent on "renewable" energy that is not sustainable without massive subsidies. This article from CFACT outlines the scope of the problem:

Failing the laugh test: Wind, solar power make subsidy accusations
The lavishly subsidized wind and solar power industries apparently don’t like other meth dealers – er, make that energy subsidy recipients – on their federal-pork street corner. The evidence? Wind and solar apologists are squealing with outrage that coal and nuclear power may finally get their own small piece of the action.

For important context, the wind and solar power industries each receive such enormous taxpayer subsidies that all other energy industries combined do not receive as much taxpayer pork as either wind or solar power alone. According to the U.S. Energy Information administration, the net subsidies for coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power combined amount to only 1/9th of the amount of federal renewable energy subsidies (see Table 3: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/pdf/subsidy.pdf).

Keeping wind and solar power’s dominance of the energy subsidy racket in mind, wind and solar apologists are making laughable objections to Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s proposal to provide credit – on energy security grounds – to power facilities that can produce electricity 24/7 and can store their fuel onsite. With coal and nuclear power fitting these energy security goals, and wind and solar power falling short, renewable power apologists claim energy security considerations amount to “subsidies” and “bailouts” for coal and nuclear power.

Time to start building LFTRs - we had them in the 1960's but stopped building them because Thorium does not go Ka-Boom while Uranium and Plutonium do and the commercial interests did not want to fund another refinement process.

About that storm - Ride the Ducks

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Looks like someone was not paying attention - from MSN/The Washington Post:

The violent storm behind the duck boat tragedy was well-predicted, not ‘out of nowhere’
Seventeen people are dead after a severe thunderstorm capsized a duck boat in Branson, Mo., Thursday night.

In the wake of the tragedy, Jim Pattison Jr. president of the parent company for Ride the Ducks Branson, said the storm “came out of nowhere.” This is simply not true. Meteorologists had been tracking the storm for hours, and their forecasts offered considerable lead time for the hazardous weather.

“[T]his indirect blaming of meteorologists was old a decade ago and is completely inappropriate in this particular situation,” wrote Mike Smith, a retired meteorologist and former executive at AccuWeather in a blog post.

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch, signaling conditions were favorable for dangerous storms in the region, at 11:20 a.m. Central time, nearly eight hours before the storm struck. The watch cautioned “widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible.”

As the storms drew close, the Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 6:32 p.m. Central, indicating a violent storm was imminent, about 30 minutes before the boat capsized.

The Ducks have had a very bad safety record - time to get them out of service although the incident in Branson was just sheer negligence and that particular company needs to be sued into bankruptcy.

Crap - serious flooding in Japan

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From Reuters:

Japan struggles to get help to victims of worst floods in decades
Japan struggled on Tuesday to restore utilities after its worst weather disaster in 36 years killed at least 155 people, with survivors facing health risks from broiling temperatures and a lack of water, while rescuers kept up a grim search for victims.

Torrential rain unleashed floods and landslides in western Japan last week, bringing death and destruction, especially to neighborhoods built decades ago near steep slopes. About 67 people are missing, the government said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has canceled an overseas trip to cope with the disaster, which at one point forced several million from their homes.

Prayers going out to these people.

Climate change - a two-fer

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First - Looks like there is trouble at the top. From New Delhi, India's The Wire:

Green Climate Fund Chief Quits After 'Disappointing' Meeting
Oslo (Norway): Green Climate Fund (GCF) meant to channel billions of dollars to poor nations said it had had a “very difficult and disappointing” meeting ending on Wednesday, in a new setback after US President Donald Trump pulled out US support last year.

Australian climate finance expert Howard Bamsey announced he was stepping down as executive director of the GCF at the end of the four-day meeting in Songdo, South Korea, the GCF said in a statement.

The GCF, whose South Korean headquarters opened in 2013 with backing from almost 200 nations, aims to help poor nations cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt their economies to heatwaves, storms and rising seas.

Noble idea - only problem is that this is not happening. The sea level is rising but minimally - a few millimeters every decade or so. The Paris Accord? Follow the Benjamins:

As part of the Paris agreement, rich nations pledged to raise total climate finance, from both private and public sources, to $100 billion a year by 2020 and to raise it further in the 2020s.

All of a sudden, the poor nations are seeing a lot of money available if they make noises about global warming (which hasn't happened in over 18 years). Now the money is being taken away and they want their money. Will the average citizen of these nations see anything? No - this is just another example of graft and corruption writ large.

Second - this is delicious - from the Los Angeles Times:

Brett Kavanaugh, a Washington veteran, is Trump's second pick for the Supreme Court
In choosing Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court, President Trump went with a well-credentialed Washington insider who compiled a long record as a reliable conservative and won the respect of White House lawyers and the outside groups that advise them.

And this juicy little nugget:

Kavanaugh was skeptical of several of the Obama administration’s environmental regulations, including efforts to limit greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants.

I am not in any way suggesting that we go back to the environment of the 1960's when rivers caught fire and smog was a serious urban health hazard but we cleaned that up and our environment is now something to be proud of. Time to cut back on the bureaucracy and to officially recognize that our climate is always variable and that we just passed through a 30 year Modern Warm Period. Our sun is seriously quiet these days - close to 100 days without any sunspots this year alone. We may very well be heading for a time of cooling.

Glad that we will be getting a new Justice that recognizes the climate hype for what it is.

From Missoula, Montana station KECI:

5-ton tractor still missing after tornado touches down
Weather officials say a tractor that was carried away in a tornado last week near the Montana-South Dakota state line has yet to be found.

The National Weather Service says last Thursday's storm spawned at least five tornados in rural Carter County, Montana, and Harding County, South Dakota.

The most damaging tornado received an EF-3 rating with winds estimated at 136 mph (218 kph). It traveled more than 3 miles (5 kilometers) from Montana into South Dakota, snapping trees and destroying a home and a shed.

And an EF-3 is not the biggest they get. The Enhanced Fujita Scale goes up to EF-5. There is no EF-6

Heavy rains in the Black Rock River

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Inexorable is the word that comes to mind.

Force of nature.

The people pushing the Anthropogenic Climate Change bull-crap use the numbers from their computer models for evidence. They do not use real data gathered from the real world for some strange reason. Might be because the Modern Warm Period has come to an end and we have not had any appreciable warming for about 20 years.

This data is from messurements taken in the field by various arrays of sensors - both atmospheric, satellite (radar) and oceanic. Add Bird Migration to the mix - from Phys Org:

Migratory birds arriving late to breeding grounds
New research shows climate change is altering the delicate seasonal clock that North American migratory songbirds rely on to successfully mate and raise healthy offspring, setting in motion a domino effect that could threaten the survival of many familiar backyard bird species.

A growing shift in the onset of spring has left nine of 48 species of songbirds studied unable to reach their northern breeding grounds at the calendar marks critical for producing the next generation of fledglings, according to a paper published today in Nature Scientific Reports.

And the mechanism:

Birds leave their winter homes in Central and South America for the north based on the seasonal shift in hours of daylight, a cue unaltered by climate change. To produce healthy young, they must arrive at their breeding grounds to take advantage of the early-season boom in insects that emerge with springtime plant growth.

But as climate change shifts the timing of when plants put out new leaves – a temperature-driven process known as green-up – migrating birds become more likely to reach breeding grounds when temperatures are still frigid and food is scarce or after insect numbers have begun to dwindle.

Interesting. Another nail in the coffin.

Our neighbor to the North - British Columbia has gone a bit off the deep end regarding Glowball Warmening. They drew a line in the sand saying that they would implement a 40% reduction in Greenhouse Gasses (what are those?) by 2020. This was set in place in 2007. From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

B.C. government drops greenhouse gas target for new 2030 goal
The B.C. government has dropped its greenhouse gas reduction target, blaming the previous Liberal government for failing to do enough to meet the goal set in 2007.

On Monday, the NDP announced the 2020 target was being replaced with a 40 per cent reduction of 2007 levels by 2030, as part of a new Climate Change Accountability Act.

"The previous government, after stalling on sustained climate action for several years, admitted they could not meet their 2020 target, and those targets are repealed in this act," said a statement released by Minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy George Heyman.

So shift the blame and move the goalposts. Carbon Dioxide is essential for photosynthesis - the driver of plant growth. No CO2, no plants.

Do as I say, not as I do

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Hypocrites - every last one of them. From Pacific Standard:

ON CLIMATE CHANGE, A DISCONNECT BETWEEN ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR
Do our behaviors really reflect our beliefs? New research suggests that, when it comes to climate change, the answer is no. And that goes for both skeptics and believers.

Participants in a year-long study who doubted the scientific consensus on the issue "opposed policy solutions," but at the same time, they "were most likely to report engaging in individual-level, pro-environmental behaviors," writes a research team led by University of Michigan psychologist Michael Hall.

Conversely, those who expressed the greatest belief in, and concern about, the warming environment "were most supportive of government climate policies, but least likely to report individual-level actions."

Sorry, I didn't have time to recycle—I was busy watching a documentary about the crumbling Antarctic ice shelf.

The study, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, followed more than 400 Americans for a full year. On seven occasions—roughly once every eight weeks—participants revealed their climate change beliefs, and their level of support for policies such as gasoline taxes and fuel economy standards.

They also noted how frequently they engaged in four environmentally friendly behaviors: recycling, using public transportation, buying "green" products, and using reusable shopping bags.

Paging Mr. Al Gore - Mr. Al Gore to the white courtesy phone please...

From the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT):

Meteorologist allegedly assaulted by NWS Director Uccellini
A veteran Ph.D. meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) was physically assaulted by NWS Director Louis Uccellini for mentioning “cooling” during a talk about the Earth’s climate in 2014 according to an account provided to CFACT.

“Don’t ever mention the word cooling again,” the agency’s Director warned.

The Director allegedly put his hand on the meteorologist’s chest as a warning, and pushed the employee against the wall. The whistleblower, who spoke to CFACT on the condition of anonymity, described a culture of fear and ostracism at NWS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) against those who dissent from the “global warming” narrative.

The meteorologist has peer-reviewed dozens of articles, has authored several peer-reviewed articles, and has over 40 years of meteorology experience.

“I was giving a talk to fellow NWS staff about the jet stream flow in the upper atmosphere. What it showed was large amplitude waves in both the northern and southern hemispheres. I explained that the only way the jet stream could get to be high amplitude is if the atmosphere was actually cooling.”

Director Uccellini told CFACT through his spokesperson, Susan Buchanan, that “this alleged incident never happened” and that he “has never had a physical altercation with anyone in his 40-year career.

Yet another house that needs to be cleaned - a bit more:

“One coworker who is a fellow ‘skeptic’ and I have to be careful about what we talk about at our desks or the break room,” the NWS employee explained. “We can’t let the word get out that we aren’t buying into the whole ‘the climate is warming’ narrative.”

“It is an almost Orwellian, nasty-type society.”

The meteorologist further stated that climate data is altered at NWS and NOAA for political purposes: “It is an incredibly well-oiled propaganda machine. I read the reports that come out, and they either have no science in it, or its completely false.”

Much more at the site - the rot is deep. They are a political arm of the progressive party, they are no longer scientists. Brings to mind Jerry Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy:

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people":

First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.

Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.

The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.

So true... Imagine how much more advanced our civilization would be if it were not for the action of petty bureaucrats.

About that Global Warming - Florida

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From the Sarasota Herald-Tribune:

Alarming number of manatees are dying in Florida this year
An environmental watchdog group says manatees are dying at an alarming rate this year and cautions 2018 could be one of the deadliest years on record for the sea creatures.

More than 160 manatees have died in the first two months of the year — a morality rate that sets a pace to easily eclipse last year’s total of 538 manatee deaths and could surpass the all-time record of 803 deaths in 2013, national nonprofit Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER) warns.

So far, 166 manatees have died statewide through March 2, according to statistics by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Cold snaps in January accounted for 51 of the statewide deaths from cold-stress, state statistics show.

“Florida’s manatees are one big freeze away from an ecological disaster and need more, not less, protection,” PEER Executive Director Jeff Ruch said in a statement. “Manatees may join polar bears as one of the first iconic victims of extinction in the wild from climate change.”

Global Warming? Have not seen anything appreciable for the last 20 years so now they are branding it Climate Change. Guess what - the climate has always been changing. It was changing while we were still living in the treetops and it will continue to change long after we are extinct.

The idea that the human race can effect a drastic change in the world's climate is absolute pure hubris.

Rain rain go away

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Been raining more than usual for Spring in the Pacific Northwest. This has caught Cliff Mass' eye (here and here). It sounds really nice on the roof but it is taking its toll - Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS LED TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...
Rainfall of up to 2 to 5 inches over the lowlands and foothills of western Washington in the past several days has once again increased soil moisture to high levels. Light to moderate showers are expected today that could add up to only a half an inch to an inch in some places. But with these wet soils that could be enough to trigger a landslide or two. This elevated threat will persist through Tuesday, before slowly decreasing over the following few days.

Several landslides have already been reported or suspected in various locations in western Washington in the last day or two, including on the Burke-Gilman trail in King County, and this morning on the railroad tracks just south of Everett.

Just wonderful. A lot of the island shoreline is bluff - hope that everybody stays safe.

Our quiet sun - some more data

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Looks like we are in for a period of very cool weather - from Anthony Watts:

Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball
On Sunday NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, covering sunspot activity for March 2018.

March 2018 was the least active month for sunspots since the middle of 2009, almost nine years ago. In fact, activity in the past few months has been so low it matches the low activity seen in late 2007 and early 2008, ten years ago when the last solar minimum began and indicated by the yellow line that I have added to the graph below. If the solar minimum has actually arrived now, this would make this cycle only ten years long, one of the shortest solar cycles on record. More important, it is a weak cycle. In the past, all short cycles were active cycles. This is the first time we have seen a short and weak cycle since scientists began tracking the solar cycle in the 1700s, following the last grand minimum in the 1600s when there were almost no sunspots.

And the big question:

The big question remains: Are we about to head into a grand minimum, as happened during the Maunder Minimum in the 1600s? During that century there were practically no sunspots. Since it occurred immediately after the invention of the telescope, astronomers had no idea that the lack of sunspots were unusual and did not give it much attention. It wasn’t until the solar cycle resumed in the 1700s that they discovered its existence, and thus realized the extraordinary nature of the century-long minimum that had just ended. Unfortunately, it was over, and the chance to study it was gone.

And will this inactivity have an impact on our climate?

Furthermore, the occurrence of a grand minimum now would help the climate field. We really do not know the full influence of the Sun’s solar cycles on the Earth’s climate. There is ample circumstantial evidence that it has a significant impact, such as the Little Ice Age that occurred during the last grand minimum, as well as the unusually cold climates that also matched past weak cycles, now, and also in the early 19th and 20th centuries. Studying a grand minimum with today’s sophisticated instruments could help measure precisely how much the Sun’s sunspot activity, or lack thereof, changes the climate here on Earth.

Cold weather kills more people than warm weather - time to button up and lay in a couple months of food. Prices are going to get high.

Abject lunacy at $40,000 per mile

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Only in California. From FOX News:

Los Angeles painting city streets white in bid to combat climate change
California officials are hoping their latest attempt to stem the rising tides of climate change leads to a more socially conscious -- and cooler -- summer.

Officials in Los Angeles have been painting streets white to reduce the effect of urban "heat islands" and combat the effects of climate change.

The LA Street Services began rolling out the project last May, which preliminary testing shows has reduced the temperature of roadways by up to 10 degrees. The project involves applying a light gray coating of the product CoolSeal, made by the company GuardTop.

Just great - it is single-sourced; only available from one company. They have been around since 1983 so their products are probably pretty good but I could see a lot of other places where this money could be spent - like fixing the road surfaces for one. Last time I drove in California was a couple of years ago (blacksmith convention) and they were really bad then. Cannot imagine what they are like now.

A two-fer

First, from the National Weather Service:

...WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...
Windy conditions are possible Saturday over much of Western Washington. A deep low pressure center is forecast by most weather models to move north off the coast on Saturday. This will bring strong southerly winds to Washington.

High wind is possible in some areas. As always, the exact track and strength of the low will determine where and whether any high wind will occur. The zones most likely to get high wind--sustained wind of 40 mph or gusts to 58 mph--are the coast and northern inland areas. Most other places exposed to southerly wind could have wind in the 20-35 mph range, with gusts to 50 mph.

Second from Seattle's Cliff Mass:

Monster Late-Season Atmospheric River Will Hit the West Coast With Heavy Rain and Strong Winds
An extraordinarily strong atmospheric river will hit the West Coast starting tomorrow in the Pacific Northwest and then moving southward into California on Friday and Saturday.

A monster that will be one the strongest on record, particularly this late in the season. And to add to the fun, an extremely powerful storm will form off our coast, bringing very strong winds over the Oregon coast. Again, very unusual this time of the year.

Time to batten down the hatches and stay inside.

Global Warming in the news

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This time from Investors Business Daily:

The Stunning Statistical Fraud Behind The Global Warming Scare
Global Warming: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may have a boring name, but it has a very important job: It measures U.S. temperatures. Unfortunately, it seems to be a captive of the global warming religion. Its data are fraudulent.

What do we mean by fraudulent? How about this: NOAA has made repeated "adjustments" to its data, for the presumed scientific reason of making the data sets more accurate.

Nothing wrong with that. Except, all their changes point to one thing — lowering previously measured temperatures to show cooler weather in the past, and raising more recent temperatures to show warming in the recent present.

This creates a data illusion of ever-rising temperatures to match the increase in CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere since the mid-1800s, which global warming advocates say is a cause-and-effect relationship. The more CO2, the more warming.

More at the site with links to corroborating data. NOAA is promoting a narrative instead of actual science. Talk about needing a good housecleaning...

My Mom's family is from Erie and I spent a lot of time there as a kid. Seems that Al Gore must be visiting as they are getting record levels of snow. From the NOAA NCEI Climate twitter account:

With 156 inches between December 2017 and February 2018, Erie, Pennsylvania, set a new record for most winter snowfall: http://bit.ly/2oMzRba  #StateOfClimate #PAwx

Some video:

Global warming - a hopeful sign

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Hopefully, clearer heads are starting to come to the forefront. Maybe we will be finally rid of this pseudo-science. From the UK Telegraph (the Met office is their National Meteorological Office - weather forecasting and all that stuff):

Met Office chief executive sacked amid questions over 'governance and management'
The Met Office has been plunged into crisis after its chief executive was sacked over problems with “governance and management controls” at the £170 million a year public body.

Rob Varley was ordered to resign from his £160,000 post by the most senior civil servant at the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), which oversees the national weather service.

Mr Varley, who had worked at the Met Office for 34 years beginning as a trainee forecaster in 1983, agreed to step aside.

It comes at a pivotal time for the Met Office, which lost the contract to provide forecasting services for the BBC to its rival MeteoGroup. It will stop providing forecasts later this month. The Met Office has provided data for the BBC’s weather forecasts since the corporation’s first radio weather bulletin in November 1922.

Heh - they lost the Beeb contract because MeteoGroup offered more accurate forecasts. The Met Office has some wonderful toys (their Cray XC40 Supercomputer for example) but their models are toast. They are firmly in the global warming true believer camp and their work is just wishful thinking. MeteoGroup either lives or dies in the commercial market so they have the incentive to cut through the rhetoric and go outside and gather actual data.

Nice to see the beginnings of change. Restore sanity and clean science.

Our quiet sun - a consequence

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Our sun has been very quiet for the last ten or so years. What was supposed to be the start of another solar cycle has essentailly stalled out and the solar output is very low, the sun spends many days without any sunspots (a visible proxy for output) and our climate is cooling as a result.

Turns out that there are other consequences to this lower activity - from the American Geophysical Union's Space Weather:

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep-space exploration
Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events.

Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The Schwadron et al. (2014a) study examined the evolution of the interplanetary magnetic field, and utilized a previously published study by Goelzer et al. (2013) projecting out the interplanetary magnetic field strength based on the evolution of sunspots as a proxy for the rate that the Sun releases coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This led to a projection of dose rates from galactic cosmic rays on the lunar surface, which suggested a ∼20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next, and indicated that the radiation environment in space may be a worsening factor important for consideration in future planning of human space exploration.

We compare the predictions of Schwadron et al. (2014a) with the actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years. The observed dose rates exceed the predictions by ∼10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Much of this increase is attributable to relatively low-energy ions, which can be effectively shielded. Despite the continued paucity of solar activity, one of the hardest solar events in almost a decade occurred in Sept 2017 after more than a year of all-clear periods. These particle radiation conditions present important issues that must be carefully studied and accounted for in the planning and design of future missions (to the Moon, Mars, asteroids and beyond).

The Schwadron et al. (2014a) paper can be found here: Does the worsening galactic cosmic radiation environment observed by CRaTER preclude future manned deep space exploration?

The charged particles emanating from the sun ionize our Earth's atmosphere. This intensifies the action of our magnetic field which in turn, deflects incoming cosmic rays. Without a strong sun, more cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere and hit our planed. The interesting thing is that these will frequently "seed" clouds causing a cooling rain. Therefore, the cooling of our sun is directly causing additional cooling from increased rainfall.

Remind me once again what the big fuss is about global warming again? Sure, we had the modern warm period from 1970 to 2006 but that is over and done with. Now we need to worry about global cooling and its implications.

The Modern Warm Period

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All that talk about global warming... Turns out that we were going through the Modern Warm Period. Peole have noted that it has not been warming for the last 20 years or so. Dr. David Archibald looks at the actual numbers and makes the point that the warmest time in recent years was actually in 2006 and that there has been significant cooling ever since.

From Watts Up With That:

Some data suggests Global Cooling started in 2006
Many good things come to an end and that includes the Modern Warm Period. Mild winters and early springs are now spoken of in the past tense. The peak of the Modern Warm Period was 2006 as shown by the oceanic lead indicator, the Gulf Stream, also called the North Atlantic Current. 

Much more at the site - the numbers are actually very clear. No global warming. We actually need to be concerned about this as times of colder weather cause more damage than times of warmer weather - especially now that we have moved away from traditional fuels and heating costs are now significantly more expensive. More peole die from cold than from heat.

Science as it is done these days

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I love these expeditions to some remote place to PROVE global warming - they invarriably get turned back. Here is just the latest of a long string - from LiveScience:

Expedition to 'Hidden' Antarctic Ecosystem Turned Back by Heavy Ice
Scientists on their way to investigate a mysterious region of Antarctica's seafloor, hidden by thick ice for 120,000 years, have run into an obstacle: Their research ship has been forced to turn north, after dense sea ice prevented it from reaching the southern Larsen C ice-shelf.

The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) announced today (March 2) that the captain of the research vessel RRS James Clark Ross had made the "difficult decision" to turn back from the Larsen C region after encountering pack sea ice up to 16 feet (5 meters) thick.

Heh - got to love it. A collision between their computer models and reality. In a situation like this, reality will always win. They were hopeing to see the effect of sunlight on an area that had until recently been covered by a floating ice sheet. The ice sheet calved off due to global warming and not winds or ocean currents. They were going there to see open seas and sunlight - the got ice. Lots and lots of ice.

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