Recently in Climate Category

Last month's bomb cyclone

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The sudden freeze on the East coast was not a unique phenomon. I was living in Boston when the Blizzard of 1978 hit. More here. The Northeast also suffered one in 1993 - the Storm of the Century.

There is an interesting set of photographs at the Hampton Roads Naval Museum:

One Century Ago: What Cold Really Looks Like
Local headlines recently proclaimed that the Hampton Roads area is experiencing perhaps the coldest new year it has experienced in a century. Thousands of "nonessential" workers at military bases across the Hampton Roads Region are off for the second day in a row (myself included, although I'm still on deadline for this blog post and other projects). Many of them are busily documenting the snowdrifts and other winter wonders deposited by the recent "bomb cyclone" that made it all possible. But what did the winter of a century ago look like to the Sailors and other photographers who were working then?

The Hampton Roads Naval Museum recently acquired photographs taken by a young gunner's mate floating on the York River that show just how cold it got one century ago. Compared to the arctic blast of January 1918, which froze battleships into place off Yorktown and made the majority of the Chesapeake region practically impassible, the so-called "bomb cyclone" that swept through the area this week was a mere inconvenience.

Thanks to a young Sailor named Ernest A. Washburn, who was serving aboard USS Rhode Island (BB 17), we now have a better idea what the York looked like during that epic cold snap.

There are five photos at the site - two taken by Mr. Washburn and three taken by other photographers of the same weather event.

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Two photographs taken from USS Rhode Island (BB 17) have been combined to show the monitor Tallahassee (BM 9),
which served during the war as a submarine tender, and the battleship Texas (BB 35), frozen in
at the location near Yorktown, Virginia, known as "Base 2" in January 1918.
E.A. Washburn Collection, Hampton Roads Naval Museum

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Longtime Norfolk photographer Harry C. Mann recorded the aftermath of the Monticello Hotel fire, after which a
fire engine remained frozen in place. At far left, merchants can be seen removing whatever
wares they can salvage. (Library of Virginia Digital Collections)

Those people who claim that us puny humans are changing the earth's climate are nuts. Pure and simple nuts - they have a political agenda that they are driving and they are using this pseudoscience to leverage their agenda because it will not stand on its own merits.

Got another front moving through - this time, it's freezing rainfall. From Watts Up With That:

Forecasters: Another major winter storm to pound US East coast -ETA Saturday
System likely to produce a layer cake from hell frozen over.

Dr. Ryan Maue of weather.us has been watching the development of forecasts for a new major winter storm that is likely to pound the U.S. East Coast and Northeast/New England States Friday and Saturday. He writes:

Tropical moisture feed ahead of developing major winter storm will provide huge rainfall atop any frozen ground in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast into Saturday. Bad!

“Bad” in this case may equate to blizzard like conditions with heavy rain over frozen ground and snow, making for a real mess.

The start of an extended period of cold weather? Our sun is very quiet.

From Forbes Magazine:

Exxon Prepares To Sue California Cities, Says They Contradict Themselves On Climate Change
Some government officials in California are hypocrites pushing a political agenda that involves using private lawyers to sue and demonize ExxonMobil, the company is now arguing in a Texas state court.

On Jan. 8, Exxon took the first step towards suing those who orchestrated climate change lawsuits in California by asking the Tarrant County District Court to allow it to question an assortment of government officials and a Hagens Berman lawyer. The company says those local officials are talking out of both sides of their mouths - blaming Exxon for an impending flooding disaster while not disclosing that alleged threat to possible investors in their bond offerings.

In 2017, the counties of Marin, Santa Cruz and San Mateo and the cities of San Francisco, Oakland, Santa Cruz and Imperial Beach filed suit against dozens of energy companies, including Exxon and 17 other Texas-based businesses, over climate change. The company has previously been targeted by the attorneys general of Massachusetts and New York.


“It is reasonable to infer that the municipalities brought these lawsuits not because of a bona fide belief in any tortious conduct by the defendants or actual damage to their jurisdictions, but instead to coerce ExxonMobil and others operating in the Texas energy sector to adopt policies aligned with those favored by local politicians in California,” attorneys for the company wrote.

In doing so, they must have lied to potential investors in their respective bond offerings, the company claims.

One example:

San Mateo County’s complaint says it is “particularly vulnerable to sea level rise” and that there is a 93% chance the county experiences a “devastating” flood before 2050. However, bond offerings in 2014 and 2016 noted that the county “is unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur"

A long and fun read. Discovery will be interesting to say the least...

Mount Washington

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When I was living in Boston, I loved hearing about Mount Washington. It has some of the worst weather in the USA.

From the Boston Globe:

Mount Washington is among the coldest places on the planet — and beyond
Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire isn’t just cold — at -36 degrees with a windchill of 94 below, it’s tied for the second coldest place on Earth, according to a tweet from the observatory. In fact, according to the latest data available from the Curiosity rover on Mars, Mount Washington feels colder than the surface of our celestial neighbor, which was measured at -78 degrees.

As of Saturday morning, the wind was gusting at over 100 miles per hour at the summit, which is 6,288 feet above sea level, according to the observatory’s website.

“We should end up being the coldest location tonight in the Lower 48,” Mike Carmon, senior meteorologist at the Mount Washington Observatory, told the New York Times. “We basically just start saying it’s stupid cold outside.”

If you’re wondering what place on Earth could possibly be colder than Mount Washington, it’s Eureka, Nunavut, at -40 degrees. But with winds of only 2 miles per hour, Eureka comes in at a balmy windchill of -50 degrees.

To get an idea of Mt. Washington weather, here is a short film shot in 1990 showing a typical morning:

Climate Change

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There is a big difference between the output from computer models and real data recorded in the field. Excellent article on global temperature and its lack of rise. From CFact:

No CO2 warming for the last 40 years?
It is very cold here in the Eastern US and the President is joking about the lack of global warming. More interesting by far is the fact that there appears to have been no CO2 induced warming in the last 40 years, which is as far back as the satellite measurements go.

That this incredible fact has gone unnoticed is due mostly to the scientific community’s fixation on the warming shown by the surface temperature statistical models. But as explained here, these complex computer models are completely unreliable.

Also, the satellite measurements do show some global warming, which people have mistakenly assumed somehow supports the hypothesis of human caused, CO2 induced warming. Careful inspection shows that this assumption is false. There is in fact no evidence of CO2 warming in the entire satellite record.

To see this one must look at the satellite record in detail. To understand this, bear in mind that science is all about the specific details of an observation. These details can overthrow grand theories that are widely accepted.

For example, the negative result of the Michelson-Morley experiment led to the revolutionary special theory of relativity. When it comes to global warming, the 40 year satellite measurements provide a strong negative result for the CO2 warming hypothesis. The CO2 warming just is not there.

Like I said before, when this foolishness blows over, it will be interesting to see just how much money was wasted.

They warned us and now? Guess what...

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Glad I do not live on the East Coast any more - from The Daily Caller:

New England Was Warned ‘Pipeline Constraints’ Could Cause Problems This Winter. Now It’s Happening
While New England’s power grid operator predicted it would have enough energy supplies to meet demand this winter, it admitted there could be problems if record-low temperatures set in.

“While New England has adequate capacity resources to meet projected demand, a continuing concern involves the availability of fuel for those power plants to generate electricity when needed,” grid operator ISO New England reported in November.

“During extremely cold weather, natural gas pipeline constraints limit the availability of fuel for natural-gas-fired power plants,” the grid operator noted.

That’s exactly what is happening right now.

And a bit more:

New England’s current energy woes are the result of years of state and federal policies aimed at closing coal and oil-fired power plants, largely as part of the region’s effort to fight global warming.

Some day, once this whole anthropogenic global warming batshit blows over and people come to their senses, I would love for someone to compile an account of just how much money was wasted on this foolish rat-hole. How many lives were lost. There has been zero measurable warming in the last 20 years. Now, a lot of people are worrying that we might be entering into an extended period of cooling.

Bombogenesis in action

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Definition: bombogenesis
What is happening: The Washington Post

‘Bomb cyclone’ blasting East Coast before polar vortex uncorks tremendous cold late this week
Unforgiving cold has punished the eastern United States for the past 10 days. But the most severe winter weather yet will assault the area Wednesday night into the weekend.

First, a monster ocean storm is taking shape, which pasted parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina with rare ice and snow early Wednesday. By Thursday, the exploding storm will, in many ways, resemble a winter hurricane, battering easternmost New England with potentially damaging winds in addition to blinding snow. Blizzard warnings have been issued for the Virginia Tidewater region up the coast to eastern Maine, including Ocean City, Md., Atlantic City, eastern Long Island, Boston, and Portland.

“This rapidly intensifying East Coast storm will produce strong, damaging winds — possibly resulting in downed trees, power outages and coastal flooding,” the National Weather Service tweeted Wednesday.

Forecasters are expecting the storm to become a “bomb cyclone” because its pressure is predicted to fall so fast, an indicator of explosive strengthening. The storm could rank as the most intense over the waters east of New England in decades at this time of year.

Little ice age anyone? All the indicators are there starting with a very quiet sun.

Just in time for skiing - a drought

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The weather can be perverse at times. From Cliff Mass:

The Upcoming December "Drought" in the Northwest
A stunning transition is going to happen on Sunday.

Precipitation over the Northwest will end.

And we might not see another drop for over a week. Maybe more. An unusual occurrence in December. You will see sun....but as we will note there is a threat: low clouds and fog.

Let's take a look at the forecast upper level (500 hPa) maps this week from the NOAA GFS model...and be prepared to have your jaw drop!

As the podiatrist once said: This is a wail of toe 

Just what we need: gorgeous crisp clear days and no fresh powder for the prime skiing season. At least it should clear up in time for Christmas. That high-pressure ridge will bring some hard cold to the midwest.

From the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)

Competitive Enterprise Institute Sues State Department Again Over Paris Climate Agreement Records
Today the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) filed its second lawsuit against the State Department to obtain illegally withheld documents related to the 2015 Paris climate agreement. In October 2017, CEI submitted a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for emails of two State Department officers involved in the Obama administration’s maneuvering to circumvent the Senate in order to join the Paris agreement, Trigg Talley and Alexandra Costello.

Trigg Talley and Alexandra Costello were both members of the State Department when the decision was made to avoid characterizing the Paris agreement as a treaty. Talley is presently in Bonn at the Paris treaty talks as Director of the Office of Global Change at State Department. Costello was a State Department Capitol Hill liaison during the Obama administration tasked with managing relations between the Senate and the administration.

The Obama administration cut the Senate out of the treaty process in order to join the Paris agreement. Documents obtained under a previous FOIA production show Costello correspondence with a lawyer for Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker. In response to an August 2014 New York Times report about Obama’s plan to circumvent the Senate, the lawyer said this news “indicate[s] a disturbing contempt for the Senate’s constitutional rights and responsibilities.” Yet, Chairman Corker never publicly opposed Obama’s circumvention of the Senate. CEI seeks to learn just why this silence occurred.

The deep-state is being drained step by step. I hope that they are successful in their suit. The Obama administration directly contradicted the US Constitution by making the Paris Agreement a Treaty - bypassing the mandatory Senate approval. Unwinding Obama's legacy step by step.

About that global warming

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Here is the raw data from the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) - these stations have been in place for 13 years so this is the full dataset:

uscrn-graph.jpg

Notice the warming? Me neither.

Pineapple express due on Saturday

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Get ready - from Seattle's Cliff Mass:

5000 Mile Atmospheric River Will Hit the Northwest on Saturday: Heavy Rain in the Offering
The atmosphere is kind of funny when it comes to moisture. Rather than move water vapor out of the tropics in wide currents, the moisture tend to move in relatively narrow atmospheric rivers.

For us in the Pacific Northwest, the atmospheric rivers that reach our shores often come from the southwest, starting somewhere near Hawaii (see graphic of water vapor content summed up in the vertical). Thus, they are often called a pineapple express.

But sometimes, a very different configuration occurs, with moisture extending northward in the western Pacific, then heading nearly due east into our region.  Traversing an amazing distance of over 5000 miles.  Let's call this the Midway Express.  And one of them will reach us on Saturday.

Forecast is for up to ten inches with high winds - here we go again. More power failures and potential for earth movement.

Here we go again - Nate

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From Florida's Miami Herald:

Tropical Storm Nate, expected later today, to hit Gulf Coast as a hurricane
A tropical depression churning across the southern Caribbean could become Tropical Storm Nate by late Wednesday, on track to hit the Gulf Coast, and possibly Florida, as a hurricane over the weekend.

In their latest advisory, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the storm is moving over warm waters and encountering light wind shear that could allow quick intensification. It’s possible sustained winds could reach 85 mph in three days, making it a Category 1 storm as it approaches the Gulf coast on Saturday. Wednesday evening forecasters upped their intensity forecast from earlier in the day, but said there’s still a chance the storm could weaken as it crosses Central America and the Yucatan.

Luck of the draw - we have had a wonderful twelve year hiatus from damaging hurricanes but chance is chance. This years events are statistics and not global warming.

It's baaaack!!!

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Looks like La Niña is back for Winter - cold and snowy weather ahead:

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From Anthony:

Cooler Global Temperatures Ahead: Indications are that La Niña is returning
Earlier this year, there were signs that a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could continue through the fall and even into the upcoming winter season, but there is now substantial agreement amongst numerous computer forecast models that La Nina conditions are likely to become established over the next couple of months and current observations back this notion. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal SSTs.  The formation of La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely have important ramifications around the world including significant impacts on the upcoming winter season, next summer’s tropical season, and global temperatures.

Great for the ski season.

I have visited there several times and always really liked it. The Old Town of San Juan is gorgeous and out in the countryside, the people are areally open and friendly. I have thought from time to time that it might be a nice place to retire to - much cheaper to live and the majority of people speak English.

And then there is this - from Dr. Jeff Masters writing at the Weather Undergound:

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico
After making landfall in southeast Puerto Rico near 6:15 am Wednesday as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, Hurricane Maria finished a devastating pummeling of the island near 1:30 pm, when its eye emerged over the ocean off the northwest coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that Maria’s 70-mile traverse of Puerto Rico had knocked the top winds of the storm down to 110 mph by 5 pm Wednesday, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane.

The entire island is without electrical power (3.4 million people) - they had one hurricane (San Felipe Segundo in 1928) that exceeded Maria's strength and violence but the island had not been built up as much back then.

Space has an article on the Arecibo Observatory - it has been sheltered from much of the wind and it is far enough above sea level that the storm surges have no effect but there is still the matter of the 25+ inches of rainfall. The crew was planning to return to the site today to begin evaluations. No news as yet.

A crack in the facade - Global Warming

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It is not happening fast enough to match the computer models. From the UK Independent:

Global warming may be occurring more slowly than previously thought, study suggests
Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.

The Earth warmed more slowly than the models forecast, meaning the planet has a slightly better chance of meeting the goals set out in the Paris climate agreement, including limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists said previous models may have been “on the hot side”.

The study, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, does not play down the threat which climate change has to the environment, and maintains that major reductions in emissions must be attained.

But the findings indicate the danger may not be as acute as was previously thought.

All of the global warming "research" has been based on the outcomes of various computer models. None of these are checked with archived data. They cannot hindcast - if you take historical data and feed it into these models, they will not output anything that matches reality. The output of these models do not agree with the measured data so it is the data that is continually being "adjusted"

Time to pull the plug on this scam before any more people get hurt with high fuel costs and stupid political decisions.

Very good decision for the EPA

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Nice to see this being decided once and for all - from the Washington Examiner:

EPA evaluating 'red teams' to challenge climate science despite hurricanes
The Trump administration is looking to create a "red team" to challenge the accepted science on climate change and the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on the Earth's temperature, but there is no timeline on when that exercise will occur even though it is "very important," according to Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt.

The EPA administrator sat down with the Washington Examiner for an interview that included discussion of the proposed red team-blue team process that he says will open up a dialogue over the science behind global warming to see what is true and what is not.

"The red team-blue team is still being evaluated," Pruitt said. "I think it's very, very important. I think the American people deserve an open, honest dialogue about what do we know, what don't we know with respect to CO2 and its impact."

The Trump administration has been criticized in recent weeks by environmentalists and others for ignoring the effects of manmade global warming in the wake of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Although climate scientists are careful not to equate weather with global warming, they do say that the increased intensity of the storms is a result of a warmer planet.

But the Trump administration feels a need to test that. The red team/blue team process Pruitt wants to set up has been widely used by the military to test assumptions when it comes to an enemy's wartime capability. A red team would challenge the assumptions of the blue team.

Good news indeed - the science is NOT settled - those who say it is are putting forth a political narrative and not actual science. The use of Red Teams has an historical precedent and has been shown to be very effective - this is a perfect venue for a red team.

Sadly true - Hurricane Irma

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Hurricane Irma from the ISS

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Jaw-droppingly beautiful view of Hurricane Irma from the International Space Station. View in full screen. No audio.

I would not mind having that for my office window for a few months! Wonder if they have a geezers in space program?

Also, the founder of The Weather Channel is John Coleman - a professional meterologist and he is never one to mince words. He had this to say about Irma's projected path (from Watts Up With That):

Take a trip west and live. It you stay put your ssn on your arm with a sharpie.

Mic drop! It will be interesting to see how Sir Richard Branson fares - from CNN:

Richard Branson to ride out Hurricane Irma in wine cellar

Talk about a first-world problem...

Record rainfall and the infrastructure is not handling it well - two from Reuters:

First - Houston says bridges, roads starting to fail under stress of flooding

Second - Harvey brings death, destruction to Houston as flood waters rise

From Reuters:

Harvey brings death, destruction to Houston as flood waters rise
Floodwaters from Tropical Storm Harvey, which has already killed at least seven people in Texas and was expected to drive tens of thousands from their homes, are likely to rise, officials warned on Monday, as heavy rain continued to pound the U.S. Gulf Coast.

National Guard troops, police officers, rescue workers and civilians raced in helicopters, boats and special high-water trucks to rescue the hundreds still stranded in and around Houston, the nation's fourth-largest city.

The storm was the most powerful hurricane to strike Texas in more than 50 years when it hit land on Friday near Corpus Christi, 220 miles (354 km) south of Houston, and the worst is far from over, as the National Weather Service issued numerous regional flood warnings.

They had a weeks warning so the loss of life was minimal. Still the damage will be huge. Why do people build in vulnerable locations? If I were looking at living on the coastline, I would avoid potential flood or landslide zones. Not if, when. If they rebuild in the same location, they should be denied any future flood insurance - want cheap government subsidized flood insurance? Be ready to rebuild in another area safe from future floods when your original building is washed away.

Looking to donate to the relief effort? Team Rubicon does excellent work.

From the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is quickly strengthening, and the cyclone's structure has improved markedly with the plane reporting a closed 15-20 n mi wide eye. The flight-level and SFMR winds support an intensity of 55 kt, but one of the more notable measurements is the central pressure, which has fallen to 982 mb. With a pressure this low, it is likely that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane.

With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

First landfall in Texas since 2008. Despite what the global warming theorists have to say, we have actually seen a decline in hurricanes both in number and strength. Still, they do happen.

Guess which one is which - climate scientists always lie. The actual numbers do not back up their computer models so they have to continually cry doom and gloom otherwise their funding dries up.

First - some real numbers from The Times of India:

Govt revises foodgrain output to record 275.68 million tonnes
India's foodgrain production for the 2016-17 crop year is estimated at record 275.68 million tonnes. The government on Wednesday revised its previous figures upward by 2.3 million tonnes and came at the new figure which is over 4 per cent higher than the previous record production achieved in the country during 2013-14.

A lot of factors contributed to this record but an increase in available plant food did not hurt (that plant food being CO2)

Second - some fake numbers from Phys.Org:

Climate change will cut crop yields: study
Climate change will have a negative effect on key crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, according to a major scientific report out Tuesday that reviewed 70 prior studies on global warming and agriculture.

Experts analyzed previous research that used a variety of methods, from simulating how crops will react to temperature changes at the global and local scale, to statistical models based on historical weather and yield data, to artificial field warming experiments.

All these methods "suggest that increasing temperatures are likely to have a negative effect on the global yields of wheat, rice and maize," said the report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed US journal.

In other words, they scanned the available literature and were able to find 70 papers that agreed with their preconceived notions. They then cherry-picked this data and regurgitated it in their own paper which sustains the narrative. This is not science, it is a couple of six year olds playing in a sandbox.

An interesting paper from OMICS International:

New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model
A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed by the atmosphere (i.e. ≈ 158 W m-2), thus requiring a re-examination of the underlying Greenhouse theory. We present here a new investigation into the physical nature of the atmospheric thermal effect using a novel empirical approach toward predicting the Global Mean Annual near-surface equilibrium Temperature (GMAT) of rocky planets with diverse atmospheres. Our method utilizes Dimensional Analysis (DA) applied to a vetted set of observed data from six celestial bodies representing a broad range of physical environments in our Solar System, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve relationships (models) suggested by DA are explored via non-linear regression analyses that involve dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. Our empirical model has also fundamental implications for the role of oceans, water vapour, and planetary albedo in global climate. Since produced by a rigorous attempt to describe planetary temperatures in the context of a cosmic continuum using an objective analysis of vetted observations from across the Solar System, these findings call for a paradigm shift in our understanding of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ as a fundamental property of climate.

Emphasis mine - in other words, the so-called Greenhouse effect with CO2 is actually a natural phenomon and has zero bearing on any climate change.

Global Warming

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Presented with apologies to Leonard Cohen:

From Minnesotans For Global Warming - YouTube Channel - hat tip Gerard

My big gripe about Anthropogenic Global Warming is that all of the presented information is derived from computer models. What temperature data is presented is often cherry-picked or it has been "adjusted". This is a common practice and is deceitful. Here is a perfect example - from The Daily Caller:

REPORT: $127 Million Climate Supercomputer No Better Than ‘Using A Piece Of Paper’
A new study using an expensive climate supercomputer to predict the risk of record-breaking rainfall in southeast England is no better than “using a piece of paper,” according to critics.

“The Met Offices’s model-based rainfall forecasts have not stood up to empirical tests and do not seem to give better advice than observational records,” Dr. David Whitehouse argued in a video put together by the Global Warming Policy Forum.

Whitehouse, a former BBC science editor, criticized a July 2017 Met Office study that claimed a one-in-three of parts of England and Wales see record rainfall each winter, largely due to man-made climate change.

Using its $127 million supercomputer, the Met Office found in “south east England there is a 7 percent chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter” and “a 34 percent chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter” when other parts of Britain were considered.

“We have used the new Met Office supercomputer to run many simulations of the climate, using a global climate model,” Met Office scientist Vikki Thompson said of the study.

The Met Office commissioned the study in response to a series of devastating floods that ravaged Britain during the 2013-2014 winter. Heavy winter rains caused $1.3 billion in damage in the Thames River Valley.

Scientists said supercomputer modeling could have predicted the flooding. Thompson said the supercomputer “simulations provided one hundred times more data than is available from observed records.”

Models simply do not work for climate - our planet is too dynamic and complex. The devastating floods were caused by two factors. The first was more rain than usual. The second was the fact that England is riddled with a very old system of canals that were used for heavy transportation during the 1800's and early 1900's until rail became widespread. These canals irrevocably altered the drainage of the watersheds but as long as the canals were dredged on a regular basis, everything was just fine. Unfortunately, regular dredging was not continued, these canals silted up and lost their ability to carry the water.

Fortunately, in 2012, England's Canal & River Trust (CRT) said that it will increase spending on dredging over the next ten years.

Hot time in the old town tonight

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Going to get very hot later this week - from Cliff Mass:

Superheat Coming to the Northwest This Week
If you were thinking about buying a fan this summer, I would hit the stores soon.

If you were thinking of picking up an AC unit, I would take care of that right away.

Big heat is coming to the Northwest later this week, with record breaking temperatures for many, particularly on Thursday, the warmest day. We are talking about mid to upper 90s F around Puget Sound, and 105-110F near Portland.

The critters have places where the shade is deep and cool so not worrying about them too much. Will keep an eye out and set up a sprinkler if it looks like they are getting heat stress.

Christ on a corn dog - just how irrelevant is this guy - from The Washington Examiner:

Bill Nye: Older people need to 'die' out before climate science can advance
Bill Nye specifically targeted the elderly this week as he spoke out against climate change deniers, saying that climate science will start to advance when old people start to "age out," according to a report.

The "Science Guy" said that generationally, the majority of climate change deniers are older.

"Climate change deniers, by way of example, are older. It's generational," Nye told the Los Angeles Times. Nye said that he is calling them out with "due respect," acknowledging that he is "now one of them."

"We're just going to have to wait for those people to 'age out,' as they say," Nye went on, adding that "age out" is a euphemism for "die." "But it'll happen, I guarantee you — that'll happen."

The problem here is that it is very easy to indoctrinate young people - older people have really good bullshit detectors and use them regularly. When the recorded data fails to back up the claims of the warmers, the tendency is to treat the warmers with a healthy dose of skepticism. They hate that as they know that their "studies" are a scam.

The alt.energy bubble

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A couple of headlines regarding alternative energy - a lot of the subsidy programs are ending. Shoveling taxpayer money to foreign companies in order to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels (of which we have a great abundance) and production of CO2 (otherwise known as plant food).

The last link is especially interesting. Any research done with public funding (Government grants, etc...) is in the public domain and the general public has the right to see the data, to see the work and to see the results at no cost. Most of today's climate research is based on computer models and recreations of climate history. Whenever these have been examined, they have been shown to be biased towards rising temperatures - the so-called Hockey Stick of Michael Mann is a perfect example. Totally discredited.

It is no wonder that the climate scientists are backpedaling as fast as they can and trying to keep their data to themselves - they know that there is no correlation between their numbers and the real world.

Sir Richard Branson seems to be putting words in President Trump's mouth - from Yahoo News / The Guardian:

Trump regrets 'bizarre mistake' of Paris climate pullout, Branson claims
Donald Trump regrets the “bizarre mistake” of withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement, Sir Richard Branson has said. The British billionaire also urged the president to help phase out the ailing US coal industry.

Speaking in Brooklyn on Friday, the Virgin Group founder said businesses and cities were firmly behind a transition to low-carbon energy, which made Trump’s decision to exit the Paris deal “very, very strange”.

“With climate change, it’s America first and our beautiful globe last, and that seems incredibly sad,” said Branson. “I’ve got a feeling that the president is regretting what he did. Maybe his children and son in law [adviser Jared Kushner] are saying, ‘Look, I told you so.’ Hopefully there is a positive change of mind.”

The wheels are coming off the global climate scam and the progressives are trying every trick in the book to forestall the crash. For a really interesting article on this (with links to inconvenient data), cehck out the following: Research Team Slams Global Warming Data In New Report: “Not A Valid Representation Of Reality… Totally Inconsistent With Credible Temperature Data”

Too many of the proponents for global warming use "data" excreted from their computer models. Very few of them actually stick their heads outdoors and look at what is happening - inconvenient numbers for them if they did.

E. M. Smith has one such metric:

Mid-July & No Tomatoes
One of the first things that tipped me off to the temperature record being a bit bogus (“over adjusted” to put it kindly…) was my tomatoes. Were I live, it is marginal for many types of tomatoes. They must be consistently above 50 F at night for fruit set. When I first moved here, it was “iffy” on the tomatoes. With proper placement, some black mulch, etc. etc. you can reliably grow them. Simple “garden square” with medium sun exposure and white cement border, well, you get late tomatoes, but don’t expect to be eating any on the 4th of July.

Now IF “Global Warming” had validity, it ought to have been getting easier to grow a tomato crop each year and I ought to have been harvesting earlier. It wasn’t… So when I looked at GIStemp (the NASA GISS temperature fabrication program) I adopted the “tag line” of “GIStemp- Dumber than a Tomato!”

I got a nice crop, modestly early, about 1998 and using some Russian low temperature selected vines. Other cherry tomatoes and some heirlooms did OK that year, but mostly harvested a bit late.

Some more historical crop records and this money shot:

Now my Dad always taught me that you knew you had timed your garden well (In Iowa and Central valley California, at least) if you had fresh corn on the cob and ripe tomatoes on the 4th of July. It’s now a couple of week past that.

Not only do I NOT have any ripe tomatoes; but I have no tomato set at all. I’ve inspected the vine. Lots of flowers. Some places flowers had been but had blossom drop when fruit set failed. It is NOT a warm summer when you can’t even get fruit SET by July 4th…

Anecdotal? Yes. Can’t say what limit of fruit set temperature is for this variety? Yes. Yet any ‘special’ set temperatures are to the cold side… it is the 50 F that is the “normal” and I don’t know of any that are selected for a warmer fruit set temperature. So, IMHO, this is a valid indicator.

It just is not warmer. I’ve had about 30 years of growing tomatoes here, on and off. Maybe 40 if you count “near here” about 15 miles away a bit closer to the mountains. Had we been warming for 30 to 40 years the “just barely enough” fruit set temperatures would have turned into “reliable” by now. Instead I’ve got “complete failure to set”. There are pollinators around (at least 2 kinds of bees). Evenings have felt quite cool.

Not warming, we have been having a 19+ year cooling trend and the output of our sun is very very quiet. I would prepare for an extended period of cooling, not warming.

Great idea - a public debate

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The science on climate change is not "settled" (scientific theories are never settled), the 70% consensus was a cooked number from one researcher in Australia and roundly debunked within the first week of publication. Time to air out the facts and to step away from the models that warmists seem to love so much (as their results fit their narratives as opposed to those pesky facts).

From Reuters:

EPA chief wants scientists to debate climate on TV
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is in the early stages of launching a debate about climate change that could air on television – challenging scientists to prove the widespread view that global warming is a serious threat, the head of the agency said.

The move comes as the administration of President Donald Trump seeks to roll back a slew of Obama-era regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, and begins a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement - a global pact to stem planetary warming through emissions cuts.

"There are lots of questions that have not been asked and answered (about climate change)," EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt told Reuters in an interview late on Monday.

"Who better to do that than a group of scientists... getting together and having a robust discussion for all the world to see."

Nice that this is coming on the heels of Michael "Hockey Stick" Mann's wonderful court trial where he is being held in contempt. Hide the decline indeed.

Climate Denial

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A great essay from Ted Nordhaus:

Demons Under Every Rock
The Ever-Expanding Definition of Climate Denial

Ted leads in with a story about a clinical case of false memories shared among a group of people and then launches into this:

This disturbing and memorable story has kept coming back to me the last few years, as a cadre of climate activists, ideologically motivated scholars, and sympathetic journalists have started labeling an ever-expanding circle of people they disagree with climate deniers.

Climate change, of course, is real and demons are not. But in the expanding use of the term “denier,” the view of the climate debate as a battle between pure good and pure evil, and the social dimensions of the narrative that has been constructed, some quarters of the climate movement have begun to seem similarly unhinged.

Not so long ago, the term denier was reserved for right-wing ideologues, many of them funded by fossil fuel companies, who claimed that global warming either wasn’t happening at all or wasn’t caused by humans. Then it was expanded to so-called “lukewarmists,” scientists and other analysts who believe that global warming is happening and is caused by humans, but either don’t believe it will prove terribly severe or believe that human societies will prove capable of adapting without catastrophic impacts.

As frustration grew after the failure of legislative efforts to cap US emissions in 2010, demons kept appearing wherever climate activists looked for them. In 2015, Bill McKibben argued in the New York Times that anyone who didn’t oppose the construction of the Keystone pipeline, without regard to any particular stated view about climate change, was a denier.

Then in December 2015, Harvard historian and climate activist Naomi Oreskes expanded the definition further. “There is also a new, strange form of denial that has appeared on the landscape of late,” Oreskes wrote in the Guardian, “one that says that renewable sources can’t meet our energy needs. Oddly, some of these voices include climate scientists, who insist that we must now turn to wholesale expansion of nuclear power.”

Oreskes took care not to mention the scientists in question, for that would have been awkward. They included Dr. James Hansen, who gave the first congressional testimony about the risks that climate change presented the world, and has been a leading voice for strong, immediate, and decisive global action to address climate change for almost three decades. The others—Kerry Emanuel, Ken Caldeira, and Tom Wigley—are all highly decorated climate scientists with long and well-established histories of advocating for climate action. The four of them had travelled to the COP21 meeting in Paris that December to urge the negotiators and NGOs at the meeting to embrace nuclear energy as a technology that would be necessary to achieve deep reductions in global emissions.

Much more at the site - author bio: Nordhaus is a leading global thinker on energy, environment, climate, human development, and politics. He is the co-founder and executive director of the Breakthough Institute and a co-author of An Ecomodernist Manifesto.

I was happy that President Trump pulled us out of this non-binding non-treaty. An interview with Drieu Godefridi at Friends of Science - Calgary:

Outcome of the Paris Accord: a re-founding act of American democracy?
Interview with Drieu Godefridi, Belgian philosopher, jurist, author of “Le GIEC etMort; Vive le Science” (The IPCC is Dead: Long Live Science) published in English under the title “The IPCC: A Scientific Body?” Godefridi discusses his view that the exit of the Trump Administration from the Paris Agreement is a sensible return to American democracy. Godefridi traces the incremental takeover of public policy by globalists and minority view activists using unelected, unaccountable politically-rife bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the guise of ‘science’ to foist ever-more economically detrimental demands on the West. These groups use contrived morality and guilt to affect a bank hold-up, the trigger-about-to-be-pulled being the ‘climate catastrophe.’

Some thoughts:

The Paris Accord marks the apotheosis, not of “globalism,” but of a particular version of globalism, which one should rather qualify as socialist. Indeed, let us recall the actual content of the Paris Agreement! What does it foresee? Essentially, two things: the drastic reduction of CO2 emissions in the West, right away, with the possibility for states such as China – the world’s largest CO2 emitter – to continue to increase emissions to 2030, with no requirement whatsoever to reduce emissions. The second essential component of “Paris” is the Green Fund, which provides for the transfer of $ 100 billion a year from the West to the rest of the world. “Paris” is therefore, first and foremost, the triumph of what was called “support for the Third World” in the 70s and 80s, that is to say, a massive and permanent transfer of wealth from the West to the rest of the world.

And the sheer breadth of the corruption:

What we have been seeing for the past two decades, in the areas of climate, gender theory, immigration and terrorism, and so on, is that activist minority ideologues have confiscated democratic debate. By acting at the international level, they have an enormous advantage. As soon as such an unaccountable international body has seized a cause, its standards prevail over national parliaments! When gender theory was enshrined in its most radical version in 2011 by a Council of Europe Convention, it became virtually impossible to dislodge it. When, in cases such as HIRSI (2012), the European Courts devoted the “no border” ideology, it became almost impossible for the national ministers who wished to defend their own borders to do so. Examples that come to mind are Francken in Belgium, his British and Austrian counterpart, or the countries of the Visegrád group – a handful able to oppose it effectively. But it is in the domain of climate that this confiscation of democratic debate is the most masterful, reaching a kind of virtuosity.

A lot more at the site - I am just touching the surface. A very articulate analysis of what we are up against.

About that global warming stuff

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From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Snow cancels Yukon-Alaska bike race for 1,300 riders
The 25th-annual Kluane Chilkat International Bike Relay has been cancelled due to snow at the starting line, affecting about 1,300 riders who were set to begin the race Saturday morning.

This is the first time the race has been cancelled.

"The race was cancelled because not only snow and slush in the upper elevations in the summit legs, but right here in Haines Junction at the start," said Mike Kramer, race coordinator.

The comments are a fun read from both sides of the catastrophic fence.

YES! - the Department of Energy

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From The Daily Caller:

DOE Eliminates ‘Unnecessary’ Office Promoting International Clean Energy Policies
The Department of Energy (DOE) nixed one of its many duplicative foreign climate change offices Thursday to streamline the agency responsible for managing the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Nearly a dozen members of the Office of International Climate and Technology were released so the Trump administration could cut bloat from within the DOE. The office was opened in 2010 to help allies across the world kick-start technology reducing greenhouse gasses.

Employees in the office are part of the so-called Clean Energy Ministerial, a small collective of polluting nations such as China and India. Their sole focus was to develop technology fighting man-made climate change.

The department is “looking for ways to consolidate the many duplicative programs that currently exist within DOE,” a spokesman for the agency told reporters, adding that the Office of International Climate and Technology would close as well.

A lot more at the site - the DOE already has two other offices that deal with international climate change. This action is just getting rid of duplicate bureaucracies.

Ho Li Crap - going to be a wet time

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Serious rain heading our way - from Cliff Mass:

Midwinter Moisture in June
Tomorrow is going to be an unusual June day over the Northwest. An extraordinary plume of moisture that stretches across the the Pacific is now approaching our shores, and mid-winter amounts of rain will spread over the region. A satellite image of the amount of water vapor in the upper atmosphere shows a "river "of moisture stretching from the southwest north Pacific to our coast.

Here is the forecast for conditions at 8:00AM tomorrow:

20170614-wet.jpg

Looking at several inches of precipitation.

News you can use - Solar Minima

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Our sun is a variable star and it has cooled off a lot from time to time - the Maunder Minimum, the little ice age, the Dalton Minimum. We may well be headed for a new cold period.

This link goes to a PDF document that covers some essentials if this happens: Solar “Grand Minima” Preparedness Plan

Another global warming catastrophe

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When will it ever stop - the Earth is doomed. From the Canadian Broadcasting Company:

Climate change researchers cancel expedition because of climate change
A team of scientists had to abandon an expedition through Hudson Bay because of hazardous ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland caused by climate change.

About 40 scientists from five Canadian universities were scheduled to use the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for the first leg of a 133-day expedition across the Arctic. It's part of a $17-million, four-year project led by the University of Manitoba that looks at both the effects of climate change as well as public health in remote communities.

Their trip began May 25 in Quebec City, but due to bad ice conditions off the coast of Newfoundland, the icebreaker was diverted from its course to help ferries and fishing boats navigate the Strait of Belle Isle, said David Barber, a climate change scientist at the University of Manitoba and leader of the Hudson Bay expedition called BaySys.

A bit more:

'Very severe ice conditions'
According to the Canadian Coast Guard, the conditions were unlike anything ever seen before in the area.

"It was just extreme ice conditions that required everything that we've got in order to make sure we were able to provide the services," said Julie Gascon, the coast guard's assistant commissioner for the central and Arctic region.

Now, where were we? The Science is Settled? How about the 19+ year decline in atmospheric air temperature? How about the extremely low solar flux?

My advice? Prepare for an extended period of cooling - another Maunder Minimum. We are overdue.

Wonderful analysis that puts Anthropogenic Global Warming where it should be - in the dustbin of history.

Check out the Global Warming Petition Project

ABSTRACT
A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases during the 20th and early 21st centuries have produced no deleterious effects upon Earth's weather and climate. Increased carbon dioxide has, however, markedly increased plant growth. Predictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocarbon use and minor greenhouse gases like CO2 do not conform to current experimental knowledge. The environmental effects of rapid expansion of the nuclear and hydrocarbon energy industries are discussed.

Read the whole thing - they cover all bases and thoroughly dismantle all of the AGW talking points.

Climate Change - Dr. John Coleman

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Dr. Coleman founded The Weather Channel. He is a professional meteorologist (since retired). Here he is with CNN's Brian Stelter:

CNN = Fake News

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