The Mountain Weather Forecast

We are tied to the weather here -- not only for our own farm and simply getting around, but also for the tourons -- campers, fishermen, hikers and backpackers in the spring and summer and hunters, skiers and boarders in the fall and winter. Here is the forecast as posted for November 26th, 2009:

Weather Synopsis for Thursday and Friday
As we merrily head into an El Nino season,
Recent snows have arrived for a very good reason.
They've given smiles and delight amid global warming,
Thinking ahead to the next epic storming.
But the Nino's just resting & getting ready for winter,
Giving us rain so our snow grains can sinter.
As recent slabs and powder fade into the past,
We really didn't expect this gift to last.
Though the models ahead show split flows and ridges,
This should keep rivers below most of our bridges.
We will have more snow-have no doubt,
But less than normal with a snowpack less stout.
Just watch out for flows that bring clearing and cold,
And form facets and hoarfrost that glitter like gold.
Know that each winter's unique and needs your attention, And this is always worthy of mention.
Happy Thanksgiving All!

A moderate frontal boundary lay stalled over the Olympics and northern WA Cascades overnight and early Thursday as significant development occurred in the base of the associated offshore trough and several waves rippled along its back edge. Combined with relatively high freezing levels and some increase in ridgetop winds, this produced heavy rain in the Olympics and northern Cascades overnight with quite warm temperatures and little precipitation elsewhere south of the front. As yet another wave moved northward along the front Thursday morning, and the offshore trough nudged southeastward, the front has slowly sagged southward during the morning and mid-day, with moderate rain or snow now reaching as far south as a Portland to Mt St Helens line. This also resulted in a significant decrease in precipitation in locations north of the sagging front along with some partial clearing, slowly lowering freezing levels and generally decreased and more northwesterly winds. By later Thursday afternoon, moderate to occasionally heavy rain or snow should reach the northern Oregon Cascades with a further slow decrease in precipitation spreading southward in the central Cascades.

While a final wave rounding the base of the trough early Thursday afternoon may either stall or briefly lift the front northward later Thursday afternoon and early evening, it is still expected to move mostly south and east of the region late Thursday night and early Friday. This should allow moderate rain or snow in the south and central Cascades and Mt Hood area to become more showery and mostly snow overnight, with light to moderate snow showers gradually decreasing in the north. As the splitting upper trough moves over and then east of the area Friday morning, light to moderate showers should diminish with some partial clearing likely late morning and mid-day. Weak upper ridging should quickly move over and east of the areas Friday afternoon, helping to maintain a few sun breaks. However, the ridge should quickly weaken and move east of the Cascades by later Friday afternoon. This should allow the next and perhaps final disturbance in the current series to move over the top of gradually building offshore ridging and spread increasing clouds and some light rain or snow into the Olympics and northern Cascades Friday night, with light rain or snow reaching the central Cascades Saturday morning.

Nice to see that people can still have fun at work...

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About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on November 26, 2009 7:05 PM.

A Thanksgiving meditation was the previous entry in this blog.

A Climatologist speaks out on the CRU 'leak' is the next entry in this blog.

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