Energy

Interesting if slanted article at The Atlantic magazine:

What If We Never Run Out of Oil?
As the great research ship Chikyu left Shimizu in January to mine the explosive ice beneath the Philippine Sea, chances are good that not one of the scientists aboard realized they might be closing the door on Winston Churchill�s world. Their lack of knowledge is unsurprising; beyond the ranks of petroleum-industry historians, Churchill�s outsize role in the history of energy is insufficiently appreciated.

Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill was appointed First Lord of the Admiralty in 1911. With characteristic vigor and verve, he set about modernizing the Royal Navy, jewel of the empire. The revamped fleet, he proclaimed, should be fueled with oil, rather than coal�a decision that continues to reverberate in the present. Burning a pound of fuel oil produces about twice as much energy as burning a pound of coal. Because of this greater energy density, oil could push ships faster and farther than coal could.

Churchill�s proposal led to emphatic dispute. The United Kingdom had lots of coal but next to no oil. At the time, the United States produced almost two-thirds of the world�s petroleum; Russia produced another fifth. Both were allies of Great Britain. Nonetheless, Whitehall was uneasy about the prospect of the Navy�s falling under the thumb of foreign entities, even if friendly. The solution, Churchill told Parliament in 1913, was for Britons to become �the owners, or at any rate, the controllers at the source of at least a proportion of the supply of natural oil which we require.� Spurred by the Admiralty, the U.K. soon bought 51 percent of what is now British Petroleum, which had rights to oil �at the source�: Iran (then known as Persia). The concessions� terms were so unpopular in Iran that they helped spark a revolution. London worked to suppress it. Then, to prevent further disruptions, Britain enmeshed itself ever more deeply in the Middle East, working to install new shahs in Iran and carve Iraq out of the collapsing Ottoman Empire.

Long article but a great read. Coming into the present here:

The Chikyu, which first set out in 2005, was initially intended to probe earthquake-generating zones in the planet�s mantle, a subject of obvious interest to seismically unstable Japan. Its present undertaking was, if possible, of even greater importance: trying to develop an energy source that could free not just Japan but much of the world from the dependence on Middle Eastern oil that has bedeviled politicians since Churchill�s day.

In the 1970s, geologists discovered crystalline natural gas�methane hydrate, in the jargon�beneath the seafloor. Stored mostly in broad, shallow layers on continental margins, methane hydrate exists in immense quantities; by some estimates, it is twice as abundant as all other fossil fuels combined. Despite its plenitude, gas hydrate was long subject to petroleum-industry skepticism. These deposits�water molecules laced into frigid cages that trap �guest molecules� of natural gas�are strikingly unlike conventional energy reserves. Ice you can set on fire! Who could take it seriously? But as petroleum prices soared, undersea-drilling technology improved, and geological surveys accumulated, interest rose around the world. The U.S. Department of Energy has been funding a methane-hydrate research program since 1982.

Hydrates are very cool. But the dystopian pseudoscience creeps in:

On a broader level still, cheap, plentiful natural gas throws a wrench into efforts to combat climate change. Avoiding the worst effects of climate change, scientists increasingly believe, will require �a complete phase-out of carbon emissions � over 50 years,� in the words of one widely touted scientific estimate that appeared in January. A big, necessary step toward that goal is moving away from coal, still the second-most-important energy source worldwide. Natural gas burns so much cleaner than coal that converting power plants from coal to gas�a switch promoted by the deluge of gas from fracking�has already reduced U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions to their lowest levels since Newt Gingrich�s heyday.

CO2 is busted -- it is the natural variability of the sun that contributes to the warming and we may well be headed for a substantial cooling period. Lastly, the line about: "reduced U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions to their lowest levels since Newt Gingrich�s heyday" is because the economy is in the toilet and gas prices are double what they were when Obama took office. When people have less money to spend, they do not drive as much or buy as much stuff (trucked in to your local store). This was never a political or voluntary reduction. Personally, I think the more cheap energy the better. This directly affects the economy and helps raise everyone's standard of living. The whole concept of money needing to be equitably redistributed is based on Karl Marx's fallacy that there is a fixed pool of money and that inequities are caused by this pool not being distributed properly. Money is fungible -- it can be created and destroyed. The better our energy sources are, the more money everyone will have if they choose to work for it. Glad to see that the people of Japan are not falling for this claptrap...