A interesting analysis

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Donald McArther points to an analysis that is, to say the least, sobering...
This analysis is giving me the willies this morning:
...Osama bin Laden�s latest message. Most observers, including the White House, seem to have missed its significance. In it, bin Laden offered us a truce (an offer we should have accepted, if only to attempt to seize the moral high ground). The Koran requires Moslems to offer such a truce before they attack. The fact that bin Laden himself made the offer, after a long silence, suggests al Qaeda attaches high importance to it.

Why? My guess is because they plan a major new attack in the U.S. soon. I would be surprised if the plan were for something smaller than 9/11, because that could send the message that al Qaeda�s capabilities had diminished. Could this be �the big one,� the suitcase nuke that most counter-terrorism experts expect somewhere, sometime? That would certainly justify, perhaps require, a truce offer from Osama himself. Of course, al Qaeda�s plan may fail, and it may be for an action less powerful than setting off a nuke on American soil. But the fact that Osama made a truce offer should have set off alarm bells in Washington. So far, from what I can see, it hasn�t.

In Iraq, Shiite country is turning nasty. The Brits are finding themselves up against Shiite militias around Basra. Muqtada al Sadr has made it clear he is spoiling for another go at the Americans, saying his militia would respond to any attack on Iran. In Baghdad, the Shiites who run things are finding American interference increasingly inconvenient. We are now talking to at least some Sunni insurgents, as we should be, but that means our utility to the Shiites as unpaid Hessians is diminishing. Put it all together and it suggests the improbable Yankee-Shiite honeymoon may soon end. When it does, our lines of supply and communication through southern Iraq to Kuwait will be up for grabs.

We are moving towards war with Iran. Our diplomatic efforts on the question of Iranian nuclear research and reprocessing are obviously designed to fail, in order to clear the boards for military action. It will probably come in the form of Israeli air strikes on Iran, which, as the Iranians well know, cannot be carried out without American approval and support...
Don's link is to this piece by William S. Lind at the excellent Defense and the National Interest It always amazes me when the West falls for the 'palestinian' truces. They simply do not understand the Arab concept of Hudna. We are waging war but not declaring it and failing -- at the cost of our soldiers and our civilians lives -- to understand the culture so that we can defeat it in a manner in which they will understand. We can kill all of them that we want but until the Islamo-Fascists understand that they have been defeated and that their misogynist, 9th century concept of paradise and tolerance simple doesn't cut it in the world today, they will still throw people against us and terror is the tool that they like to use.

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This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on February 8, 2006 9:31 PM.

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