Lesson of the Lesser Antilles

A cautionary tale from the tropics. Current thought is that Global Warming will cause an increase in tropical storms. Well, there may not be historical weather data with the precision we enjoy today but there is a solid 300-year written history contained in ships logs, newspaper accounts, state reports, official government gazettes, meteorological registers, consulate office reports, etc... This post at World Climate Report talks about what is found in that data and where it applies to our current "problem" of Global Warming. You should read the whole thing so I'll just leave you with the closing two paragraphs:

They summarize noting �We find no evidence of statistically significant trend in the number of tropical cyclones passing through the region on any time scale. While tropical cyclone numbers show no statistically significant trend hurricane frequency is down about 20% in the 20th century compared to earlier centuries. This decline is consistent with the 20th century observed record of decreasing hurricane landfall rates in the U.S.� How about this line � �Although there is no significant long-term trend since the beginning of the series the period 1968�1977 was probably the most inactive period since the islands were settled in the 1620s and 1630s.�

We have produced countless essays on the global warming � increased hurricane activity pillar of the greenhouse apocalypse (e.g., Gore�s Katrina coverage), and over and over we find no evidence from throughout the world to support such a claim. We are told the debate is over and that scientists are universally in agreement on this important subject. Nothing could be further from the truth, and nothing could be more at odds with the empirical evidence. Nothing could be more frustrating from the perspective of anyone willing to question the greenhouse dogma.

Certainly the damage from tropical storms and hurricanes is getting greater and greater but this is only the result of fools building in harms way. 100 year ago, you would never build your house on the coastline in the tropics as it was sure to get knocked down with the next storm. Now, people are wanting those ocean views and are willing to take that risk. It won't happen here...