A very fun collection of 'predictions' over at Watts Up With That.
Great moments in failed predictionsA few samples:
While searching for something else, I came across this entertaining collection of grand predictive failures related to resources and climate change, along with some of the biggest predictive failures of Paul Ehrlich. I thought it worth sharing.
One more:
- In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England�s factories would grind to a standstill.
- In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was �little or no chance� of oil being discovered in California.
- In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. (See Osterfeld, David. Prosperity Versus Planning : How Government Stifles Economic Growth. New York : Oxford University Press, 1992.)
- In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.
- 1944 federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese.
- In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.
Claim 1989: �Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010.� Associated Press, May 15, 1989.I have never seen a Malthusian prediction be correct. The Earth is doing just fine folks. Be sure to read the 150+ comments as the readers contribute a lot more of these failed predictions.
Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has increased even less over the same period.
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