Typhoon Haiyan - an observation

Cliff Mass has an excellent point on his blog regarding disaster responses:

Deploy Resources on Forecast, NOT on Disaster
Haiyan represents another human tragedy caused by severe weather. And it highlights again the weakness in the way mankind responds to such disasters.

Days before Haiyan's landfall, the forecast models showed the threat. Uncertainty was low as the best models honed in on the solution. Some warnings went out, but the major players waited until death and destruction occurred before initiating a major response. The storm hit, victims were injured and desperate, and help did not begin arriving in force until 3-5 days after the event. Many die, others sicken, looting begins, and the situation deteriorates until the second week after the storm.

Sounds familiar? This kind of scenario is SO familiar, from Katrina to Haiyan and a many storms in between.

We can do much better. Mankind, and particularly the U.S., needs to deploy on forecast, not deploy on disaster. We can do this now for the simple reason that weather forecasts are hugely better than even a decade ago. Sandy was a good example of our increased prediction prowess, and there are many more. So why begin to deploy relief AFTER the disaster strikes, but before? And have the capability to move in with massive resources immediately after the storm passes.

Excellent point. I would beg to differ with Katrina as the state must request federal aid before FEMA and other agencies can do so and it took Governor Kathleen Blanco three days to request the aid. Cliff goes on to present the forecasts and all of them nailed it -- major typhoon hitting the Philippine Islands square on. There was several days warning which could have been spent moving assets in to hunker down through the storm and then immediately begin rescue, triage and aid. It took the USA three days to begin to move an aircraft carrier it had in Hong Kong and it will take another two to three days to arrive. They could have been there when needed, not a week later. Worst case scenario -- the storm broke up and dissipated -- this could be considered a good training mission...