Our quiet sun - a consequence

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Our sun has been very quiet for the last ten or so years. What was supposed to be the start of another solar cycle has essentailly stalled out and the solar output is very low, the sun spends many days without any sunspots (a visible proxy for output) and our climate is cooling as a result.

Turns out that there are other consequences to this lower activity - from the American Geophysical Union's Space Weather:

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep-space exploration
Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events.

Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The Schwadron et al. (2014a) study examined the evolution of the interplanetary magnetic field, and utilized a previously published study by Goelzer et al. (2013) projecting out the interplanetary magnetic field strength based on the evolution of sunspots as a proxy for the rate that the Sun releases coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This led to a projection of dose rates from galactic cosmic rays on the lunar surface, which suggested a ∼20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next, and indicated that the radiation environment in space may be a worsening factor important for consideration in future planning of human space exploration.

We compare the predictions of Schwadron et al. (2014a) with the actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years. The observed dose rates exceed the predictions by ∼10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Much of this increase is attributable to relatively low-energy ions, which can be effectively shielded. Despite the continued paucity of solar activity, one of the hardest solar events in almost a decade occurred in Sept 2017 after more than a year of all-clear periods. These particle radiation conditions present important issues that must be carefully studied and accounted for in the planning and design of future missions (to the Moon, Mars, asteroids and beyond).

The Schwadron et al. (2014a) paper can be found here: Does the worsening galactic cosmic radiation environment observed by CRaTER preclude future manned deep space exploration?

The charged particles emanating from the sun ionize our Earth's atmosphere. This intensifies the action of our magnetic field which in turn, deflects incoming cosmic rays. Without a strong sun, more cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere and hit our planed. The interesting thing is that these will frequently "seed" clouds causing a cooling rain. Therefore, the cooling of our sun is directly causing additional cooling from increased rainfall.

Remind me once again what the big fuss is about global warming again? Sure, we had the modern warm period from 1970 to 2006 but that is over and done with. Now we need to worry about global cooling and its implications.

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About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on March 6, 2018 4:57 PM.

Heh - appropriate technology was the previous entry in this blog.

Global warming - a hopeful sign is the next entry in this blog.

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