Talking about the weather

Great post from Seattle meteorologist Cliff Mass:

EPIC: The Last Chance for National Weather Service Weather Modeling to Regain Leadership?
I have written at least a dozen blogs, a peer-reviewed paper, and given tens of conference talks on the unfortunate state of numerical weather prediction in the National Weather Service (which is part of NOAA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration).

The bottom line: U.S. global weather prediction is in third place in the world. The plot below shows a comparison of the skill of the 5-day model forecast for the U.S. (red line) and the European Center (black line) at a mid-tropospheric level (500 hPa). We are not only behind, but we are not catching up.

And the problem (hint: big unaccountable government)

I have explained the origin of the problems in previous blogs. They include:

1. 1. Too many Federal agencies or government-supported labs trying to do the same thing (NOAA/NWS, Air Force, NASA, Navy, NCAR)
   2. The academic community working on different models than used by NOAA/NWS.
   3. Poor organization within NOAA, with multiple groups having responsibility for weather prediction.
   4. Lack of strategic planning.
   5. Lack of sufficient computer resources.
   6. No priority for excellence.

It has been kind of depressing. The nation with a huge weather research capability and ability to zoom ahead of the pack, stuck in third rate status.

And the solution:

Perhaps best of all, recent weather legislation calls for the development of national EPIC center, that would centralize U.S. efforts to build the best global forecast models in the world. (EPIC stands for Environmental Prediction Innovation Center).

Next week there is going to be a meeting on the nature of the EPIC that will take place in Boulder, Colorado. An absolutely crucial gathering--I will be giving a talk there and are part of the organizing committee.

Will self-interest, disciplinary fiefdoms, and legacy administrative structures give way to rational, more effective approach for developing U.S. weather modeling systems? We may know the answer in one week.

Thank you President Trump for appointing effective people and getting stuff like this done. Doesn't always get the headlines but the "little stuff" like this are what makes things a lot better for all of us.