The IG Report - statistical analysis

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Kerl Denninger gives a lengthy but excellent analysis of the Inspector General's Report - here is the intro:

The IG **Admits** DOJ/FBI Attempted A Putsch
The IG report, after reading through a good part of it, states that seventeen "errors" were made by the FBI.

May I remind you of an indisputable fact: Errors are randomly distributed.

That is, let's assume you intend to drive at 40mph.  If you make an error you will operate your car some of the time at 38mph, and some of the time at 42mph.  The errors, if they are actual errors, will be randomly distributed around the correct action.  Some of the errors will place you inside the correct action and some of them will be place you outside of the correct action.  Approximately an equal number of errors will fall on each side of the correct action; some will help you, some hurt, but given enough errors there should be an approximately equal number in each direction.

If your speed, as measured at 1 minute intervals, is 40, 42, 45, 43, 41, 40, 46, 50, 42 and 45 mph that is not "error."  You are instead driving with a floor of 40mph; your intent is to drive at no slower than 40mph.

The probability of an error is 50% in each direction.  Therefore half the errors should have been to Trump's benefit.

However, exactly zero of them were to Trump's benefit.

The odds of this being random chance can be computed.

The probability of the first error being to Trump's detriment is 0.5 (50%.)

Each successive "error" is also equally probable to be of either benefit or detriment.  So when the second error occurs for them to both be to Trump's detriment by random chance -- that is, if it's an actual error without motivation or bias, is 0.50 * 0.50, or 1 in 4.

For seventeen "errors" to be all in the same direction is 0.5 ^ 17, or exactly 1 in 131,072.

This is not quite as bad of odds as winning the Powerball but it clowns the claim that such were errors and not intentional acts that evince a predetermined goal or desire.

Go and read the rest - this was not a finding, this was a manipulation of data.

Tip of the hat to Peter Grant at Bayou Renaissance Man for the link. Peter adds:

The question is, will they, and the FBI, be allowed to get away with it?  The IG report suggests that the "deep state" would like to ensure that they do.  Attorney General Barr's comments on that report suggest that they may not - a consummation devoutly to be wished by any and all Americans who value the Constitution and laws of this country, irrespective of their political views.

I am hoping for justice and from recent events, it looks like we may get it. As well as four more years of rooting out the deep-state.

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This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on December 11, 2019 8:36 AM.

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