Georgia ending lock-down - OMFG we're all gonna die!!!

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Actually, not. From Robert Stacy McCain:

Remember How Everybody Was Going to Die Because Georgia Ended Lockdowns?
The headlines last month were scary:

Georgia’s dangerous coronavirus experiment
— Joel Mathis, The Week April 21
Georgia’s Kemp neglected to warn people about his dangerous gamble
— Steve Benen, MSNBC, April 22
Kemp poised to lift restrictions, despite warnings of renewed outbreak
— Alan Judd and Greg Bluestein, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, April 29

It was a “gamble,” an “experiment,” and the media all agreed it was “dangerous” for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to do this “despite warnings.” You would have thought, based on the coverage, that Kemp’s plan was so reckless and irresponsible as to guarantee a “renewed outbreak” that would kill thousands. But what actually happened?

Georgia’s daily COVID-19 deaths had already peaked by the time Kemp announced he would begin re-opening the state’s economy. On April 16, Georgia recorded 52 deaths from the virus, concluding a week (April 10-16) in which the state recorded 205 deaths, an average of 35.7 deaths daily for that week. For the seven day period ending Thursday (i.e., May 8-14), Georgia recorded a total of 105 coronavirus deaths, an average of 15 daily. In other words, comparing these two seven-day periods, there was a 58% decrease in Georgia’s COVID-19 deaths. The number of daily new COVID-19 cases reported has likewise declined more than 50% since April, even as the number of tests performed has increased.

More at the site - those pesky numbers again. Robert reminds us of Farr's Law which governs outbreaks like this - basically a bell curve. We may be able to change the slope or height of the bell curve but nothing we can do will change the fact that it will be a bell curve. Has always been and will always be.

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This page contains a single entry by DaveH published on May 16, 2020 8:53 AM.

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