An interesting look at The Greenhouse Effect

I am a climate skeptic.  I do not deny that we have been in a warming trend from the early part of this century through the last 10-20 years.  To me though, the idea that we are responsible for this and that our un-checked actions will cause catastrophic climate change is just pure hubris.  We are not that powerful - the Earth's climate mechanisms are more powerful and larger than we could ever aspire.

A great look at The Greenhouse Effect from a Physicist:

Mathematical Proof of the Greenhouse Effect
I am sometimes shocked by the number of climate change skeptics who are certain that the “Greenhouse Effect” (GHE) isn’t real.

As a physicist, I’m as certain of the reality of the Greenhouse Effect as I am that 1 + 1 = 2.

The GHE depends on physical principles that have been well-known and well-tested for 137 years. There really should be no question as to its reality, among anyone who knows and respects science.

Note that being certain about the GHE being real is different than being certain about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), the hypothesis that human-caused increases in the concentrations of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere are causing highly problematic changes in the Earth’s climate.

AGW is a far more complex phenomenon than the GHE alone. One can be skeptical about AGW while totally accepting the reality of the GHE.

I know many readers are deeply skeptical about AGW. I encourage you to consider finding a way to honor your beliefs without denying the reality of the GHE.

The writer:  Bob Wentworth, Ph.D. takes us through an analysis of our climate dynamics, a look at the Stefan-Boltzmann Law and he runs the numbers.  The conclusion is interesting. A wee bit of explanation first.  The sunlight that warms us is referred to short-wave radiation.  Visible light.  The Earth absorbs this energy and warms. The Earth then re-radiates or gives off its heat through long-wave radiation.  Infrared light. The greenhouse gasses are those gasses which block the long-wave or LW radiation and trap all of the heat inside the Earth's atmosphere.

Bob's conclusion:

In other words:

1. 1. If there were no LW-absorbing (or LW-scattering) materials in Earth’s atmosphere, and it emitted the same average LW radiant exitance (upwelling LW radiation) to space (which would be expected in steady-state if the absorbed insolation was held constant), then the average surface temperature could not be warmer than Tₑ = 259 K (-14℃).
   2. Given that Earth’s atmosphere does include LW-absorbing and LW-scattering materials which allow there to be more LW radiation emitted by the surface than what reaches space, the average surface of the Earth can be no higher than 294 K (21℃).

Given that the average surface temperature of the Earth is typically estimated to be about 288 K (15℃), this satisfies the constraint of being no higher than 294 K (21℃).

So - given absolutely zero greenhouse activity, we would be a snowball.  -14°C is pretty damned cold.
Our present "average" temperature is 15°C which pencils out to 59°F - sounds about right.

Given an absolute balls-out maximum warming, CO2 production cranked up to eleven, our average temperature could only rise to 21°C - 69.8°F. Somewhat warmer but not dangerous by any stretch of the imagination. Not catastrophic. Not at all. What's the worry?

Bob gives all the math if you want to work through it yourself.  Basic high-school algebra and the relationships being used here have been known for the last 137 years.  They have been tested and tested again and have been shown to be perfect. Accurate. No fudging or cherry-picking allowed in science.

As a Coda here, my concern is that we are heading into a period of cooling similar to the Maunder Minimum.  Our sun has been very quiet recently. Our governments need to explore this and take action as more people die from cold than die from heat.  If this is going to be happening, we need to prepare.