From New York's Syracuse.com:
Cuomo: NY coronavirus projections ‘all wrong,’ too early to tell if reopening is working
New York — It’s too early to say whether New York state’s regional reopening a week ago is keeping the coronavirus at bay, because the virus can take up to 10 days to result in serious symptoms, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Monday.
And this:
“Now, people can speculate, people can guess, I think next week, I think two weeks, I think a month,” Cuomo said. “I’m out of that business, because we all failed at that business. All the early national experts, here’s my projection, here’s my projection model, they were all all wrong, they were all wrong.”
Projections had far more hospitalizations, intubations and deaths than have occurred so far. In Central New York, a projection two months ago had the virus claiming 2,000 lives in a year under the best scenario (there have been 115 deaths so far).
“Now, there are a lot of variables, I understand that," Cuomo continued. "We didn’t know what social distancing would actually amount to, I get it. But we were all wrong. So I’m sort of out of the guessing business.”
That is what gets me - all the models were high when, for a statistical model, there should be a bell-curve distribution around the actual average. The models were all high by at least 10X with some at 100X and higher. Stunningly bad science. One could almost think that their decisions were being driven by something other than science. Agenda maybe? Narrative?
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